Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 14 at Nevada 13

NEV
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:39 · Ashton Logan punt for 59 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 38 yds to the NEV 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense+18.2Score differential+8.0Garbage-time factor+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:42: Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ky Woods for 47 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — NEV win probability +5.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:30: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK) — MTSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 6 yds to the MTSU 30 — MTSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:21: Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK) — MTSU win probability +58.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: Timeout Nevada, clock 00:15 — NEV win probability +13.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 6:11NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:15MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:35MTSU 4th & 16 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:59NEV 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:18NEV 4th & 5 at MTSU 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:02NEV 4th & 10 at MTSU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:12NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:26MTSU 4th & 3 at NEV 9, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 15, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:47NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 35, up 13
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:04MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:44NEV 4th & 26 at NEV 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:39MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15NEV 4th & 1 at MTSU 24, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:42NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 6:30MTSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:21MTSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−10.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 5:1329% → 30%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
70.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 8 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
70.6%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep right to Middlebrook,Jekail thrown to NEV40 PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Kenion III,Murvin) 15 yards from MTN35 to MTN50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
50
+10
70.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 10 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
70.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+12
70.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 12 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
69.9%
Cam'ron Lacy run for 5 yds to the NEV 19Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-15
69.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the NEV 34Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 20
OPP 34
-6
69.9%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NEV 40Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 26
OPP 40
-5
70.0%
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Logan,Ashton) 5 yards from NEV40 to NEV45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 31
OPP 45
0
70.0%
Ashton Logan punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1570% → 69%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
69.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jace Henry for 2 yds to the NEV 9Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-1
69.6%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEV 8Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+9
69.2%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 9 yds to the NEV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
69.5%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Jett CarpenterSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
69.3%
AJ Bianco run for 8 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Caleb Ramseur run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3931% → 31%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
68.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 28Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
69.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 28Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+6
69.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
69.1%
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4669% → 68%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
68.7%
AJ Bianco run for 2 yds to the NEV 19Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+10
68.6%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Nate Burleson II for 10 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
68.7%
Herschel Turner run for 6 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+10
69.3%
Herschel Turner run for 10 yds to the NEV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
69.6%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Jordan BrownSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
69.2%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
68.7%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Nate Burleson IISimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
68.2%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1632% → 31%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
67.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 3Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-1
67.8%
(00:29) PENALTY MTN Encroachment (Walker,Amorion) 1 yard from MTN03 to MTN02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
67.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ JonesSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+1
68.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 1 yd to the MTSU 3Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
68.6%
Ashton Logan punt for 44 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the MTSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
73.9%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Ky Woods for 47 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:4828% → 27%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 2 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+42
72.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 42 yds to the NEV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the NEV 35Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
70.5%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep left to Walker,Amorion thrown to NEV01 PENALTY NEV Pass Interference (Rhambo,Edward) 15 yards from NEV35 to NEV20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
70.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 8 yds to the NEV 12Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
70.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
71.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the NEV 11 Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brendon Harris) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 11
-15
71.8%
PENALTY MTN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Guevara,Mateo) 15 yards from NEV11 to NEV26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+36
73.4%
Jacob Hathaway 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2873% → 75%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
73.4%
Ky Woods run for 15 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
74.4%
Ky Woods run for 28 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.0%
Marcus Bellon pass incomplete to Jace HenrySimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
75.0%
Caleb Ramseur run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+4
74.4%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 4 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+38
74.7%
Joe McFadden 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5525% → 23%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron LacySimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.5%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
76.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
76.8%
Ashton Logan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2876% → 76%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.8%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 7 yds to the NEV 32Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+21
76.5%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 6 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Juwon Gaston) to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
77.2%
(06:53) Shotgun Turner,Herschel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTN42 (Harris,Brendon) PENALTY NEV Holding (Scott,Trenton) 10 yards from MTN47 to NEV43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
76.6%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+15
76.5%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 15 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
77.1%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marshaun BrownSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
76.3%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jekail Middlebrook at the MTSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1523% → 23%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
76.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MTSU 5Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+6
77.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 6 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+29
77.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 14 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Labarbera) to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
76.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-14
76.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted EJ Smith return for 14 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1079% → 83%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
79.0%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-7
79.4%
AJ Bianco sacked by John Howse IV for a loss of 7 yards to the MTSU 44Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+21
78.1%
AJ Bianco pass complete to Jordan Brown for 21 yds to the MTSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
79.9%
Ky Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+7
79.8%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-4
79.6%
AJ Bianco sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 23Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+33
82.9%
Joe McFadden 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:2418% → 18%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
81.7%
Ashton Logan punt for 41 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 1 yd to the NEV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1884% → 84%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.2%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
83.7%
AJ Bianco pass incomplete to Marcus BellonSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+8
82.3%
Caleb Ramseur run for 8 yds to the NEV 38Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
83.8%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0619% → 19%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 6 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
80.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16INT
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:4984% → 86%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+64
84.1%
Herschel Turner run for 64 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
85.1%
Caleb Ramseur run for 2 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
85.6%
AJ Bianco pass intercepted Juwon Gaston return for no gain to the MTSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:2117% → 16%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
82.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
82.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
83.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
83.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 42 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
81.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 5 yds to the NEV 11Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
82.4%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 10Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+1
83.6%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd to the NEV 9Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 9
0
84.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:3287% → 89%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
86.8%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 9Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
87.0%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the NEV 9Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+6
86.7%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 6 yds to the NEV 15Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+12
86.0%
Bailey Ettridge run for 12 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.5%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Chubba Purdy run for no gain to the NEV 27Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+8
88.1%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 8 yds to the NEV 35Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2912% → 11%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
87.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Sam Cook for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 13Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+7
88.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 7 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 20
-5
88.6%
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Logan,Ashton) 5 yards from MTN20 to MTN15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
88.7%
Ashton Logan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 3:1291% → 92%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.6%
Chubba Purdy run for 7 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
90.9%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 47Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
90.7%
Ashton Hayes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
50
-4
91.3%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-12
92.6%
Chubba Purdy sacked by Zeion Simpson-Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 26
OWN 34
0
92.0%
Chubba Purdy pass incomplete to Marshaun BrownSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 26
OWN 34
+1
91.6%
Bailey Ettridge punt for 58 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 1 yd to the MTSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5210% → 8%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
90.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+10
90.6%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
90.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 8 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
89.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion WalkerSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+3
90.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
91.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
90.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-5
90.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Thomas Witte for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 37Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+38
92.1%
Ashton Logan punt for 59 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 38 yds to the NEV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 9
OWN 42
0
94.5%
Chubba Purdy pass intercepted Juwon Gaston return for no gain to the MTSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:459% → 27%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
91.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
90.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
91.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 10 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
91.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 5 yds to the NEV 34Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
90.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Tayvion GallowaySimilar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+7
91.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the NEV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
91.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 14 yds to the NEV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
91.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the NEV 13Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
91.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Amorion WalkerSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0987% → 93%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.8%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
87.9%
Herschel Turner run for 7 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
89.1%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the NEV 37Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+30
88.8%
Chubba Purdy run for 30 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
91.2%
Chubba Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 34Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+4
91.1%
Caleb Ramseur run for 4 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
93.0%
Chubba Purdy run for 6 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
92.7%
Joe McFadden 41 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 1:3920% → 89%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
80.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 6 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+9
78.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 9 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
78.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
76.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the NEV 45Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
72.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 9 yds to the NEV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
74.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
74.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 7 yds to the NEV 29Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+23
72.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 23 yds to the NEV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
68.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the NEV 5Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
10.9%
PENALTY MTN Delay Of Game (Hathaway,Jacob) 5 yards from NEV03 to NEV08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:1424% → 22%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
24.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jordan Brown for 18 yds to the NEV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
26.2%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Jett Carpenter for 9 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
30.3%
Chubba Purdy run for 9 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
22.2%
Joe McFadden 56 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:21
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
-58.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22.2
TD · Q4 6:30
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 13 yds for a TD (Jacob Hathaway KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com