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NMSU

New Mexico State 14 at Louisiana Tech 49

LT
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+5.2LT 87.2%John Hoyet Chance 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 27 · Q2 0:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:17 · John Hoyet Chance 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+13.6Home team on offense+13.8Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:49: Andrew Burnette run for 11 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +6.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:23: Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 42 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK) — LT win probability +5.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:46: Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 41 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:52: Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:17: John Hoyet Chance 27 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +5.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:31NMSU 4th & 5 at LT 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50LT 4th & 7 at NMSU 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04NMSU 4th & 10 at LT 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:51NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:17LT 4th & 9 at NMSU 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:32LT 4th & 15 at LT 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:28LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:52NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:05LT 4th & 6 at LT 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:02NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40LT 4th & 9 at LT 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:55NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32LT 4th & 8 at NMSU 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:40NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:36LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:49LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:23LT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:46NMSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:52NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:24LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:34LT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:06LT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2624% → 25%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan FaupelSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
76.1%
Kadarius Calloway run for 12 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the NMSU 37Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Adam Parks for 7 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+15
75.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 15 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
75.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Lukas Ungar for 5 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
75.2%
Isaiah Rudison run for no gain to the LT 36Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
75.1%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to PJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+53
75.2%
Ryan Hawk 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1875% → 75%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
75.4%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 25 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
75.6%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the NMSU 39Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
75.5%
(10:43) Shotgun Baker,Blake pass complete deep middle to Gandy,Devin caught at NMSU08, for 31 yards to the NMSU08 (Charles,Josiah) PENALTY LAT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Weathers,Bryson) 5 yards from NMSU39 to NMSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+8
75.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
75.4%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Dedrick LatulasSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+55
75.4%
John Hoyet Chance 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:3925% → 25%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 22Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+32
75.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 32 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
74.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the LT 46Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
74.7%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Kadarius CallowaySimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
75.0%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
75.3%
Max Dean punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 2:2175% → 78%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
74.9%
(08:04) Shotgun Baker,Blake pass intercepted by Charles,Josiah at LAT47 PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference (Charles,Josiah) 15 yards from LAT09 to LAT24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
75.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 3 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
74.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to David Pierro for 6 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
74.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 4 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
75.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 1 yd to the LT 38Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+22
74.9%
Clay Thevenin run for 22 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
75.4%
Clay Thevenin run for no gain to the NMSU 40Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
77.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jalen Mickens for 40 yds for a TD Louisiana Tech Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Gandy) to the NMSU 0 (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3924% → 23%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
50
0
76.2%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Dijon StanleySimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
50
+15
76.4%
Shotgun Fife,Logan pass incomplete deep left to Malone,Brodrick thrown to LAT28 PENALTY LAT Roughing The Passer (Mayfield,Jadon) 15 yards from NMSU50 to LAT35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
75.9%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan FaupelSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
75.9%
Shotgun Stanley,Dijon rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT34 (Mayfield,Jadon; Mason,Mekhi) PENALTY NMSU False Start (Malone,Brodrick) 5 yards from LAT35 to LAT40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+7
76.6%
Logan Fife run for 7 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+43
77.0%
Ryan Hawk 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:1578% → 85%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
77.9%
Trey Kukuk run for 2 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
77.9%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-5
78.0%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Bannister,Kenneth) 5 yards from LAT38 to LAT33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+56
77.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to David Pierro for 56 yds to the NMSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
79.0%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
85.0%
Andrew Burnette run for 11 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5817% → 16%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan FaupelSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.5%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to PJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.1%
Max Dean punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dedrick Latulas at the LT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2885% → 91%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
85.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LT 18Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+11
85.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 11 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
85.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 28Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
85.2%
Shotgun Baker,Blake pass incomplete short left to Finley,Eli thrown to LAT45 PENALTY NMSU Holding (Hale,Armahn) 10 yards from LAT28 to LAT38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Andrew Burnette run for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
85.7%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
85.4%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 13 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.9%
Amani Givens run for 2 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
85.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 5 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
91.2%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 42 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3710% → 16%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
90.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 34 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
84.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 41 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:5188% → 90%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
87.5%
Andrew Burnette run for 8 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
87.5%
Andrew Burnette run for 6 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
87.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
87.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
88.0%
Blake Baker run for 7 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+10
88.1%
Trey Kukuk run for 10 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
88.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 12 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
88.3%
Andrew Burnette run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
88.2%
Clay Thevenin run for no gain to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+19
87.9%
Blake Baker run for 19 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
88.3%
Trey Kukuk run for 4 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+2
88.3%
Trey Kukuk pass complete to David Pierro for 2 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
89.8%
Trey Kukuk pass intercepted Tyler Martinez return for no gain to the NMSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 98 yds · 1:5712% → 20%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
87.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+40
87.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 40 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
86.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 17 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
79.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 1:3082% → 87%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
81.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jalen Mickens for 16 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
82.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 41Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
82.3%
Blake Baker run for 11 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
82.8%
Blake Baker run for 7 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
83.0%
Blake Baker run for 2 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
81.9%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Baker,Blake) 5 yards from NMSU39 to NMSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+38
81.7%
Blake Baker run for 38 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
82.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the NMSU 6Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
82.7%
Clay Thevenin run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 9Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.0%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Dane BenedixSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
87.2%
John Hoyet Chance 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.1%
L. Fife takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2286% → 85%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
85.8%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Marques Singleton Jr.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
85.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-7
85.3%
Blake Baker sacked by Tory Gethers for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 14Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
85.4%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 50 yds , TJ Pride returns for no gain to the NMSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1216% → 15%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to PJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Logan Fife pass intercepted Jakari Foster return for no gain to the LT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5287% → 86%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Luke WatkinsSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.7%
Blake Baker run for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
85.9%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 43 yds , TJ Pride returns for no gain to the NMSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3615% → 13%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
85.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 15 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
84.7%
Dijon Stanley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 39Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
85.1%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+6
85.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 6 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
86.6%
Max Dean punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4788% → 88%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marques Singleton Jr. for 6 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
88.2%
Clay Thevenin run for 3 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
87.7%
Luke Watkins pass complete to Blake Baker for 5 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
87.6%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 40 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0313% → 12%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
87.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 12Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
87.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Dakerric Hobbs for no gain to the NMSU 12Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+11
87.8%
Logan Fife run for 11 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+12
88.2%
Max Dean punt for 46 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for 12 yds to the LT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2289% → 89%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
88.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for 20 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
89.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
50
-3
89.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 47Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
88.4%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Marlion JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
89.0%
John Hoyet Chance punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:4512% → 10%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Dakerric Hobbs for 9 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
86.9%
Dijon Stanley run for 8 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
87.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 21
OWN 26
-12
88.1%
Shotgun Fife,Logan rush left for 4 yards gain to the NMSU30 (Mason,Mekhi; Carter,Kameron) PENALTY NMSU Illegal Use Of Hands (Nieves,Armando) 12 yards from NMSU26 to NMSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 33
OWN 14
+1
88.2%
Dijon Stanley run for 1 yd to the NMSU 15Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 32
OWN 15
+9
88.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 9 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 23
OWN 24
0
88.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 23
OWN 24
0
90.0%
Max Dean punt for 44 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for no gain to the LT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22MISSED FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2391% → 94%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
91.1%
Andrew Burnette run for 1 yd to the LT 32Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
91.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 7 yds to the LT 39Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+15
91.9%
Clay Thevenin run for 15 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
94.0%
Clay Thevenin run for 8 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-10
94.1%
Shotgun Thevenin,Clay rush left for 7 yards gain to the NMSU31 (Smith,Lorenzo) PENALTY LAT Holding (Ellis,Austin) 10 yards from NMSU38 to NMSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+9
93.9%
Blake Baker run for 9 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+6
93.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
94.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
94.0%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the NMSU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
93.9%
Blake Baker pass incomplete to Devin GandySimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
94.4%
Drew Henderson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
98.6%
Jacob Bradford 20 Yd Fumble Return (Drew Henderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Kadarius CallowaySimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+26
98.7%
Max Dean punt for 44 yds , Marques Singleton Jr. returns for 26 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
98.8%
Trey Kukuk run for 24 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, (13 Yards) to the NMSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
98.8%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Ellis,Austin) 5 yards from NMSU12 to NMSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+7
98.8%
Blake Baker run for 7 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
98.8%
Amani Givens run for 9 yds to the NMSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Blake Baker 1 Yd Run (Blake Baker Pass to Clay Thevenin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Shotgun Fife,Logan pass incomplete short middle to Ungar,Lukas thrown to NMSU29 broken up by Cobbs,Joshua PENALTY LAT Pass Interference (Cobbs,Joshua) 6 yards from NMSU25 to NMSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-29
99.9%
Logan Fife pass intercepted Kam Franklin return for 29 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 17 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Isaiah Rudison run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 3 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
PENALTY NMSU False Start (Nieves,Armando) 5 yards from NMSU30 to NMSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Max Dean punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marques Singleton Jr. at the LT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 37 yds · 7:01100% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Andrew Burnette run for 2 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Andrew Burnette run for 6 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.9%
Andrew Burnette run for 4 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Andrew Burnette run for 2 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Amani Givens run for 5 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
Amani Givens run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Mason Welch run for 4 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Mason Welch run for 6 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.9%
M. Welch takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
100.0%
M. Welch takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:52
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 38 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 14:49
Andrew Burnette run for 11 yds for a TD (Drew Henderson KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 9:46
Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 41 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com