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UTM

UT Martin 17 at UTEP 42

UTEP
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:11 · Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTM 28 , Deuce Oliver returns for 24 yds to the UTM 40 UT Martin Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Almo) to the UTM 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense+34.3Pregame prior+4.2Score differential+13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+22.3Garbage-time factor+11.9Blowout margin+11.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Bryce Bailey run for 11 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK) — UTM win probability +5.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:27: Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK) — UTEP win probability +4.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:02: Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 8 yds for a TD (C. McConnell Run For Two-point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +4.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:00: Hahsaun Wilson run for 94 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola PAT BLOCKED) — UTEP win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 7:21: Cade Hechter 21 yd FG GOOD — UTM win probability +3.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UTM made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 9:25UTM 4th & 11 at UTM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56UTM 4th & 3 at UTEP 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:37UTM 4th & 7 at UTM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:35UTM 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:55UTM 4th & 20 at UTM 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:08UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07UTM 4th & 2 at UTM 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:39UTM 4th & 3 at UTEP 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:21UTM 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:26UTM 4th & 1 at UTM 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:07UTM 4th & 1 at UTEP 20, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:58UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:29UTM 4th & 2 at UTM 14, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 36, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:27UTM 4th & 10 at UTM 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:44UTEP 4th & 30 at UTM 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:44UTEP 4th & 30 at UTM 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:30UTM 4th & 9 at UTEP 42, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:34UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:48UTM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:27UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:02UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:00UTEP Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:25UTEP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:11UTEP Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:07UTM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:4922% → 22%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
78.4%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the UTM 34Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
78.2%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTM 35Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
78.1%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the UTM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-16
77.8%
Jase Bauer sacked by Neil Campbell for a loss of 16 yards to the UTM 25 Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by UTM Joshua Rudolph , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:4478% → 79%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
78.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 20 yds to the UTM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.2%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTM 2Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.9%
Ashten Emory run for 2 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:5722% → 21%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
78.5%
John Gentry run for 11 yds to the UTM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.4%
John Gentry run for no gain to the UTM 36Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
78.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 8 yds to the UTM 44Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
78.2%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the UTM 45Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
78.4%
PENALTY UTM False Start (Martinez,Drake) 5 yards from UTM45 to UTM40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
78.7%
(09:08) Van Winkle,Jaren punt 52 yards to the UTEP08 Willis III,Eric return 2 yards to the UTEP10 (Castleberry,Joel) PENALTY UTM Illegal Formation (Van Winkle,Jaren) 5 yards from UTM40 to UTM35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
78.8%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5879% → 79%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
78.5%
Ashten Emory run for 12 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
78.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
78.9%
Ashten Emory run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis IIISimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+2
78.5%
Noah Botsford punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTM 17 , Deuce Oliver returns for 2 yds to the UTM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:1222% → 21%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
78.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jaren Bowling for 1 yd to the UTM 18Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
78.5%
Scottie Alexander run for 8 yds to the UTM 26Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+9
78.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jaren Bowling for 9 yds to the UTM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
78.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 30 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
77.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+1
77.1%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
78.9%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
79.4%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Thomas AnsleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0479% → 80%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
79.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Judah EzinwaSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
79.2%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+8
79.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 8 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
79.6%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Jabaree Dawkins for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 33 Malachi Nelson fumbled, recovered by UTM Lebron Edmond , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:4822% → 28%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
77.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to John Gentry for 5 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
77.4%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
77.4%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
77.3%
Jase Bauer run for 10 yds to the UTEP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
72.0%
Bryce Bailey run for 11 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:2975% → 80%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
75.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 9 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+8
75.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 8 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
75.7%
Ashten Emory run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 1
50
0
76.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 1
50
+2
75.9%
Garrett Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UTM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
80.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3820% → 20%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
79.6%
(12:20) Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short right to Bailey,Bryce thrown to UTM32 PENALTY UTM Illegal Formation 5 yards from UTM19 to UTM14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+2
79.7%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the UTM 16Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+6
79.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 6 yds to the UTM 22Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
80.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+66
80.4%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 24 , Eric Willis III returns for 66 yds to the UTEP 12 UTEP Penalty, Illegal Block (Nik Henry) to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:2380% → 86%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+49
79.5%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 49 yds to the UTM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
81.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 8 yds to the UTM 19Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+12
81.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 12 yds to the UTM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
81.1%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 8Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 8 yds for a TD (C. McConnell Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0015% → 16%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
84.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 71 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
82.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTEP 3Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.9%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.7%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the UTEP 2Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
84.1%
Jase Bauer run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD
3 plays · 96 yds · 0:2487% → 95%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
87.3%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+94
94.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 94 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:448% → 7%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 11 yds to the UTM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
92.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 2 yds to the UTM 34Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
93.0%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-8
93.1%
Jase Bauer sacked by Udoka Ezeani for a loss of 8 yards to the UTM 26Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+15
93.4%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 49 yds , Eric Willis III returns for 15 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4095% → 95%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
94.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 4 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
95.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
94.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jaylan BrownSimilar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+13
94.5%
Noah Botsford punt for 49 yds , Deuce Oliver returns for 13 yds to the UTM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:566% → 6%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
93.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UTM 6Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
93.4%
John Gentry run for no gain to the UTM 6Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+7
93.8%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the UTM 13Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
93.9%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.0%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
95.7%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1195% → 94%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
94.6%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
94.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jet ThompsonSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+6
94.4%
Noah Botsford punt for 47 yds , Deuce Oliver returns for 6 yds to the UTM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 18FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 6:086% → 8%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
93.6%
Scottie Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 28Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+19
94.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 19 yds to the UTM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
93.8%
Thomas Ansley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
93.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Drake Martinez for 4 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
94.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Thomas Ansley for 1 yd to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+6
94.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 6 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
94.2%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+15
94.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Scottie Alexander for 15 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
94.2%
UTEP Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
94.4%
Chris Franklin run for 2 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
95.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to John Gentry for 6 yds to the UTEP 2Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.5%
John Gentry run for no gain to the UTEP 2Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
92.0%
Cade Hechter 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4095% → 98%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
95.1%
Hahsaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+74
98.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 74 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:434% → 3%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Drake MartinezSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
96.4%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the UTM 29Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
96.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Scottie Alexander for 7 yds to the UTM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-1
96.7%
Chris Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.2%
Malachi Nelson run for 4 yds to the UTM 30Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+14
99.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 14 yds to the UTM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.3%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 4 yds to the UTM 12Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 12 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 5:510% → 1%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.7%
Chris Franklin run for 9 yds to the UTM 30Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
99.7%
Chris Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 29Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 3 yds to the UTM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 4 yds to the UTM 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-2
99.8%
Chris Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTM 34Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+20
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Chris Franklin for 20 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Bryce BaileySimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 17 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Thomas Ansley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Thomas Ansley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Hyatt TimosciekSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
99.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Ashten EmorySimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.7%
Ashten Emory run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 23Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Marcus TorresSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.7%
Noah Botsford punt for 66 yds , Deuce Oliver returns for 5 yds to the UTM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Phaizon Wilson for 9 yds to the UTM 15Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 1
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Phaizon WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-1
99.7%
Thomas Ansley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTM 14Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.7%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
99.8%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Jet ThompsonSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+24
99.8%
Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTM 28 , Deuce Oliver returns for 24 yds to the UTM 40 UT Martin Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Almo) to the UTM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.6%
(08:09) Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short right to Franklin,Chris thrown to UTM40 PENALTY UTEP Holding (Gant,Allen) 10 yards from UTM28 to UTM38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
99.6%
Jase Bauer sacked by Shakaun Bowser for a loss of 4 yards to the UTM 34Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+4
99.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Hyatt Timosciek for 4 yds to the UTM 38Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Jaren Van Winkle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eric Willis III at the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 27MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trevon Tate for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incomplete to Wondame Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+63
99.9%
Skyler Locklear run for 63 yds to the UTM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.9%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Keyshawn Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the UTM 20Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+6
99.9%
Hahsaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the UTM 14Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-21
99.9%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Shamari Weir for a loss of 21 yards to the UTM 35Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 30
OPP 35
+52
99.9%
Carlos Arreola 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lebron Edmond (02:54) Arreola,Carlos field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD blocked by Edmond,Lebron (H: Botsford,Noah, LS: Hancock,Josh), clock 02:44 recovered by UTM Johnson,Jordan at UTM31, End Of Play.Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 30
OPP 35
+52
99.9%
Carlos Arreola 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lebron Edmond (02:54) Arreola,Carlos field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD blocked by Edmond,Lebron (H: Botsford,Noah, LS: Hancock,Josh), clock 02:44 recovered by UTM Johnson,Jordan at UTM31, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
Thomas Ansley run for 4 yds to the UTM 35Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+22
99.7%
Julian Calvez pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 22 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Julian Calvez pass incomplete to Devin QueenSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.8%
Julian Calvez run for 7 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-6
99.7%
Julian Calvez sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Julian Calvez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
99.9%
(00:30) Shotgun Smith,Shay rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTEP47 (Puni,Iese) PENALTY UTEP Holding (McDuffie III,Tyrone D.) 10 yards from UTEP42 to UTEP32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Josh Bell run for 4 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:00
Hahsaun Wilson run for 94 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola PAT BLOCKED)
+7.3
TD · Q2 14:48
Bryce Bailey run for 11 yds for a TD (Cade Hechter KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 12:27
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Carlos Arreola KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com