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TLSA

Tulsa 14 at New Mexico State 21

NMSU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:12 · Kirk Francis pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−8.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score differential+0.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:47: Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +13.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:24: Timeout Tulsa, clock 00:24 — TLSA win probability +26.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:38: Ryan Hawk 38 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:23: Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 15 yds for a TD (P. Johnson III Run For Two-point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +37.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:33: Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:18TLSA 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:01TLSA 4th & 10 at NMSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:54TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 12:18TLSA 4th & 1 at NMSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:12TLSA 4th & 4 at NMSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:12TLSA 4th & 4 at NMSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:34NMSU 4th & 12 at TLSA 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:01TLSA 4th & 10 at NMSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:42NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:38NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:38NMSU 4th & 20 at TLSA 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−6.9
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−16.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:13NMSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−5.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:13NMSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−5.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:38NMSU 4th & 20 at TLSA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−4.7
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−11.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:04TLSA 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:21TLSA 4th & 1 at NMSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−6.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 10:47TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 3:23NMSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.2%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3360% → 59%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Brody FoleySimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
40.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
40.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 6 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
40.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 4 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
40.7%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
41.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
41.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Landen Lucas for 10 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
41.1%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the NMSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
15 plays · -1 yds · 22:0660% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
40.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
45.9%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
46.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete, New Mexico State Penalty, passinterference (Dakerric Hobbs)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
50
0
44.9%
Jacob Emmers run to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
50
+7
45.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
45.4%
Micah Tease run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-2
45.5%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
46.3%
Kirk Francis runSimilar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
48.0%
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds to the TLSA Similar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
49.0%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 22Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
49.7%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
50.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+4
51.5%
Angus Davies punt for 48 yds , TJ Pride returns for 4 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 3 yds · 3:3560% → 58%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
40.6%
Kirk Francis pass to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
40.7%
Kirk Francis pass to Zion Booker for 6 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
40.8%
Kirk Francis pass to Braylin Presley for 4 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
40.9%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yards to the Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
41.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
41.4%
Kirk Francis pass to Landen Lucas for 10 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
41.4%
Dominic Richardson runSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
41.8%
(12:13) PENALTY NMSU False Start (Nieves,Armando) 5 yards from NMSU44 to NMSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+4
41.8%
Dijon Stanley run for 4 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
42.0%
PJ Johnson III pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
42.0%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to TJ PrideSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
41.8%
Max Dean punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 3:4758% → 57%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
41.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, falsestart (Armando Nieves)Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+4
41.9%
Dijon Stanley run for 4 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
42.1%
PJ Johnson III pass to PJ Johnson III for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
42.1%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
42.0%
Max Dean punt for 33 yds to the NMSU Similar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
42.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 20 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
42.1%
Braylin Presley run for 10 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
42.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
42.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 3 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.2%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
42.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+6
42.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
43.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
17 plays · 16 yds · 6:1558% → 56%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
42.0%
Kirk Francis pass to Braylin Presley for 20 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
42.1%
Braylin Presley run for 10 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
42.1%
Kirk Francis pass to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
42.1%
Kirk Francis pass to Zion Booker for 3 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.2%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
42.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+6
42.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
43.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
43.2%
Larenzo McMillan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
43.5%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
43.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 5 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
44.1%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Fife,Logan pass complete short right to Faupel,Donovan caught at TULSA45, for 19 yards to the TULSA44, out of bounds at TULSA44 PENALTY NMSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NMSU37 to NMSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
43.9%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Gavin HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-4
43.9%
Logan Fife run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 28Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+14
43.7%
Logan Fife run for 14 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
44.2%
Max Dean punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · -4 yds · 3:5843% → 46%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
43.2%
Larenzo McMillan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
43.5%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
43.4%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 5 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.1%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel, New Mexico State Penalty, illegalformation (5 Yards)Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
43.9%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 15
OWN 32
-4
43.9%
Logan Fife run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 28Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+14
43.7%
Logan Fife run for 14 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
45.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 1 yd to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
45.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
45.7%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 9
OWN 15
-5
46.1%
(04:12) PENALTY TULSA False Start (Garrett,Buddha) 5 yards from TULSA15 to TULSA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+8
46.2%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 41 , TJ Pride returns for 8 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 13 yds · 3:0945% → 46%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
45.1%
Kirk Francis pass to Jacob Emmers for 1 yd to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
45.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
45.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+5
46.1%
Tulsa Penalty, falsestart (Buddha Garrett)Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+8
46.2%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds to the TLSA 41, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 41, TJ Pride returns for 8 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
46.4%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Fife,Logan pass incomplete deep middle to Owens,Jackson thrown to TULSA06 PENALTY TULSA Pass Interference (Lewis,Champ) 15 yards from TULSA41 to TULSA26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
46.6%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the TLSA 26Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
46.8%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Fife,Logan pass complete short right to Calloway,Kadarius caught at TULSA30, for 1 yard loss to the TULSA27, out of bounds at TULSA27 PENALTY NMSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TULSA26 to TULSA31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+4
46.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 4 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-1
46.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Dijon Stanley for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
45.6%
Ryan Hawk 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
18 plays · 32 yds · 7:0654% → 53%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
46.4%
Logan Fife pass incomplete, Tulsa Penalty, passinterference (Champ Lewis)Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
46.6%
Kadarius Calloway runSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
46.8%
Logan Fife pass to Kadarius Calloway, New Mexico State Penalty, illegalformation (5 Yards)Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+4
46.5%
Logan Fife pass to PJ Johnson III for 4 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-1
46.6%
Logan Fife pass to Dijon Stanley for a loss of 1 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+46
45.6%
Ryan Hawk 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
45.7%
Braylin Presley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
46.8%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete short middle to Foley,Brody thrown to TULSA37 broken up by Hobbs,Dakerric PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference (Hobbs,Dakerric) 15 yards from TULSA28 to TULSA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
50
0
44.6%
Jacob Emmers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
50
+7
45.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
45.0%
Micah Tease run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-2
45.2%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
45.9%
Kirk Francis run for no gain to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
47.5%
Angus Davies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:1447% → 48%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
47.3%
Dijon Stanley run for 2 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
47.3%
Dijon Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 6Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+12
46.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 12 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
48.6%
Logan Fife run for 2 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+16
48.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Dijon Stanley for 16 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.9%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Lukas UngarSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Shawn BrownSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
48.7%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Shawn BrownSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Max Dean punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:1553% → 53%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.2%
Logan Fife run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+25
53.6%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
50
0
56.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
50
0
56.3%
Similar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to TJ Pride for 6 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-2
55.6%
PJ Johnson III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
54.0%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to TJ PrideSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Max Dean punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2451% → 64%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
49.4%
Baylor Hayes pass to Zion Booker for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
48.6%
Baylor Hayes pass to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+49
47.0%
Seth Morgan 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
52.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
53.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for 12 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
50.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
51.1%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 7 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
51.2%
Braylin Presley run for 9 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
49.7%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Presley,Braylin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMSU25 (Thompson Jr.,Jamall) PENALTY NMSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NMSU29 to NMSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
36.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 10:1743% → 63%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
42.7%
Logan Fife pass to TJ Pride for 6 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-2
43.4%
PJ Johnson III run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
41.7%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
41.1%
Max Dean punt for 40 yds to the NMSU , punt out-of-bounds at the NMSU Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
58.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
60.2%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
24 plays · 41 yds · 16:5554% → 80%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
54.0%
Baylor Hayes pass to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
54.2%
Baylor Hayes pass to Micah Tease for 12 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
51.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
52.1%
Baylor Hayes pass to Braylin Presley for 7 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
52.2%
Braylin Presley run for 9 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
51.0%
Braylin Presley run, New Mexico State Penalty, illegalsubstitution (5 Yards)Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.1%
Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds to the , for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
62.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 4 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
63.6%
Dijon Stanley run for 1 yd to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
62.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 9 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
65.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 5 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
66.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 6 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
66.3%
(01:24) Shotgun Fife,Logan rush right for 1 yard gain to the TULSA36, out of bounds at TULSA36 PENALTY NMSU Holding (Harlan,Hayden) 10 yards from TULSA37 to TULSA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+3
64.7%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 23
50
+21
63.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to TJ Pride for 21 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
66.7%
Isaiah Rudison run for 4 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.6%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Jackson OwensSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
68.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Isaiah Rudison for 7 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+7
70.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 7 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
72.8%
Logan Fife run for no gain to the TLSA 11Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
73.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-6
69.7%
Logan Fife sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 21Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
80.3%
Ryan Hawk 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:1765% → 70%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
65.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jackson Owens for 5 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
67.3%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Shawn BrownSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
66.2%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 5 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.7%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to PJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
67.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jackson Owens for 9 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
68.1%
Logan Fife run for no gain to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
67.3%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
70.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
69.8%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Kadarius CallowaySimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+20
68.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jackson Owens for 20 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
71.6%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Donovan FaupelSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
71.3%
Dijon Stanley run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
70.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
27 plays · 75 yds · 22:1165% → 94%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
65.0%
Logan Fife pass to Jackson Owens for 5 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
67.3%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
66.2%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 5 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.7%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
67.0%
Logan Fife pass to Jackson Owens for 9 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
68.1%
Logan Fife runSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+1
67.3%
Logan Fife run for 1 yd to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
70.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 1 yards to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
69.8%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+20
68.1%
Logan Fife pass to Jackson Owens for 20 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
71.6%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
71.3%
Dijon Stanley run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
70.3%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 24 yds to the TLSA 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Ryan Hawk KICK)Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 9 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
53.7%
Logan Fife run for 11 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.3%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Jackson OwensSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
51.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 10 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
56.1%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Brodrick MaloneSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
55.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jackson Owens for 5 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+7
55.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Brodrick Malone for 7 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
59.4%
(04:30) Shotgun Fife,Logan pass incomplete deep right to Owens,Jackson thrown to TULSA10 PENALTY TULSA Holding (Green,Elijah) 10 yards from TULSA33 to TULSA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
59.4%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 13 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
59.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Shawn BrownSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
59.5%
Logan Fife pass incomplete to Shawn BrownSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
56.2%
(03:32) Shotgun Fife,Logan pass complete short right to Faupel,Donovan caught at TULSA05, for 7 yards to the TULSA03 (Green,Elijah), out of bounds PENALTY NMSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TULSA10 to TULSA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
93.8%
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 15 yds for a TD (P. Johnson III Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 4 yds · 21:0269% → 97%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
68.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
70.4%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds to the TLSA Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.9%
Isaiah Rudison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
96.8%
Logan Fife run for 3 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+2
96.9%
Logan Fife run for 2 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+6
96.5%
Max Dean punt for 51 yds , Zion Booker returns for 6 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17END OF GAME
20 plays · 18 yds · 19:1775% → 92%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.0%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 4 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
75.9%
Dijon Stanley run for 1 yd to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
75.1%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for 9 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.4%
Logan Fife pass to Brodrick Malone for 5 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
79.1%
Logan Fife pass to Gavin Harris for 6 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
81.1%
Logan Fife run, New Mexico State Penalty, holding (Hayden Harlan)Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-3
80.5%
Logan Fife pass to Donovan Faupel for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 23
50
+21
80.4%
Logan Fife pass to TJ Pride for 21 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
83.1%
Isaiah Rudison run for 4 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
83.8%
Logan Fife pass to Isaiah Rudison for 7 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+7
83.9%
Logan Fife pass to Brodrick Malone for 7 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
85.2%
Logan Fife runSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
85.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-3
84.0%
Logan Fife sacked by Nahki Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 21Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
82.6%
Ryan Hawk 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
91.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+18
91.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for 18 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5424% → 25%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
75.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Micah Tease for 20 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
74.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
73.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
74.6%
Baylor Hayes run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 5
50
+6
76.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
76.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 12 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
72.4%
Ajay Allen run for 14 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
75.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19INT
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:439% → 11%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
89.4%
Zion Booker run for 6 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
89.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
88.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
85.5%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
86.2%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
88.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.9%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-8
88.9%
Baylor Hayes pass intercepted Jamall Thompson Jr. return for 8 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:23
Logan Fife pass complete to Gavin Harris for 15 yds for a TD (P. Johnson III Run For Two-point Conversion)
+37.6
TD · Q4 0:24
Timeout Tulsa, clock 00:24
-26.5
TD · Q3 10:47
Baylor Hayes run for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com