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MOST

Missouri State 21 at Marshall 20

MRSH
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadMOST aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreMOST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.7MRSH 86.2%Lorcan Quinn 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 20 · Q3 9:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:08 · Lorcan Quinn 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense+15.4Score differential+6.6Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:57: Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK) — MOST win probability +5.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MOST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: Zion Turner run for 14 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:08: Lorcan Quinn 33 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +4.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:59: Timeout Marshall, clock 07:59 — MRSH win probability +5.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Timeout Marshall, clock 02:12 — MRSH win probability +19.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MOST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:54MOST 4th & 3 at MOST 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36MOST 4th & 8 at MRSH 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:36MOST 4th & 8 at MRSH 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:01MOST 4th & 15 at MRSH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:01MOST 4th & 15 at MRSH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:12MOST 4th & 21 at MOST 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−3.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44MRSH 4th & 6 at MOST 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:08MRSH 4th & 6 at MOST 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−6.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:07MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:12MOST 4th & 21 at MOST 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−3.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19MOST 4th & 14 at MRSH 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:08MRSH 4th & 6 at MOST 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:37MRSH 4th & 1 at MOST 8, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%−3.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−13.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MOST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:57MOST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:07MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MOSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0029% → 29%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.2%
Jacob Clark run for 10 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for 9 yds to the MOST 44Similar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
70.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 42Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Anthony Frederique punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:3171% → 70%
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
70.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 42Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
70.9%
Anthony Frederique punt for 39 yds to the MOST Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
70.9%
Zion Turner pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for no gain to the MRSH 19Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
70.8%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 4 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-5
70.6%
PENALTY MAR False Start (McDuffie,Tyler) 5 yards from MAR23 to MAR18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
70.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Jakolbe Baldwin for no gain to the MRSH 18Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
70.3%
Nathan Totten punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Dash Luke at the MOST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 13 yds · 5:0529% → 30%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+62
70.9%
Zion Turner pass to Demarcus LaceySimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
70.8%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 4 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
70.6%
Marshall Penalty, falsestart (Tyler McDuffie)Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+64
70.5%
Zion Turner pass to Jakolbe BaldwinSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+56
70.3%
Nathan Totten punt for 46 yds to the MRSH , Marshall Penalty, holding (Cannon Lewis)Similar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
70.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 44Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+13
70.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 13 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
69.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-15
69.6%
Missouri State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 46Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+2
69.7%
Jacob Clark run for 2 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+3
69.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 3 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
69.8%
Anthony Frederique punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 7 yds · 4:2830% → 31%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
70.3%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 44Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+13
70.4%
Jacob Clark pass to Shomari Lawrence for 13 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
70.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+25
69.8%
Jacob Clark run for 10 yds to the MRSH 31, Missouri State Penalty, personalfoul (Jmariyae Robinson)Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
69.8%
Jacob Clark run for 2 yds to the MRSH 44Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+3
69.7%
Jacob Clark pass to Ramone Green Jr. for 3 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
69.8%
Anthony Frederique punt for 34 yds to the MOST Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
69.8%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 6 yds to the MRSH 13Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
69.8%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 1 yd to the MRSH 14Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
69.3%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Demarcus LaceySimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+15
69.1%
Nathan Totten punt for 53 yds , Dash Luke returns for 15 yds to the MOST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 15 yds · 3:2430% → 31%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
69.8%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 6 yds to the Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+1
69.8%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 1 yd to the MRSH 14Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
69.3%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+15
69.1%
Nathan Totten punt for 53 yds to the MOST 48, Dash Luke returns for 15 yds to the MOST 48Similar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
68.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 20 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
67.8%
Jacob Clark run for 4 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
67.5%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
67.9%
(05:02) PENALTY MSU False Start (Cade,Erick) 5 yards from MAR28 to MAR33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+1
68.1%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 1 yd to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 32
-5
68.8%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Cade,Erick) 5 yards from MAR32 to MAR37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+54
69.0%
Yousef Obeid 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 3:5932% → 32%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
68.4%
Jacob Clark pass to Jmariyae Robinson for 20 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
67.8%
Jacob Clark run for 4 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
67.5%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
67.9%
Missouri State Penalty, falsestart (Erick Cade)Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+1
68.1%
Jacob Clark pass to Dash Luke for 1 yd to the MRSH 32Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+5
68.8%
Missouri State Penalty, falsestart (Erick Cade)Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+54
69.0%
Yousef Obeid 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.7%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 1 yd to the MRSH 38Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
69.7%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 1 yd to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
69.3%
Zion Turner sacked by Mitchell Toney for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 33Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+2
68.4%
Nathan Totten punt for 44 yds , Dash Luke returns for 2 yds to the MOST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:5230% → 39%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.7%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 1 yd to the MRSH 38Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
69.7%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 1 yd to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-6
69.3%
Zion Turner sacked by Mitchell Toney for a loss of 6 yards to the MRSH 33Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
68.4%
Dash Luke returns, Nathan Totten punt for no gain to the , Missouri State Penalty, holding (Dylan Simmons)Similar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
68.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the MOST 12Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
67.9%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ronnel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+18
68.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 18 yds to the MOST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
67.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for 7 yds to the MOST 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
66.5%
Shomari Lawrence run for 8 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Dash LukeSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
66.4%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 43Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+57
60.8%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:4838% → 31%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+76
61.8%
Shomari Lawrence runSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
61.5%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+18
61.7%
Jacob Clark pass to Tristian Gardner for 18 yds to the MOST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
60.5%
Shomari Lawrence run for 7 yds to the MOST 37Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
59.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 8 yds to the MOST 45Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.9%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
58.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 43Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+57
59.0%
Jacob Clark pass to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds to the MRSH 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.4%
Zion Turner pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 2 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
61.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Ben Turner for 17 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST down Missouri State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maguire Neal) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
62.0%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 28 yds to the MOST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
63.2%
Zion Turner pass complete to Toby Payne for 13 yds to the MOST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
63.0%
Zion Turner run for 3 yds to the MOST 12Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-2
62.8%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 14Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
69.0%
Zion Turner run for 14 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 4 yds · 7:0323% → 18%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.7%
Jacob Clark pass to Tristian Gardner for 1 yd to the MOST 21Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
76.8%
Jacob Clark pass to Ramone Green Jr. for 8 yds to the MOST 29Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+16
77.0%
Jacob Clark pass to Connor Lair for 16 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.3%
Jacob Clark runSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
75.8%
Jacob Clark sacked by Paul Hutson III for a loss of 1 yards to the MOST 43Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-34
76.9%
Marvae Myers return for 34 yds to the MOST 36, Jacob Clark pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
79.6%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Hayden Hagler for 15 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
79.3%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Clark,Jacob pass complete deep right to Robinson,Jmariyae caught at MAR35, for 30 yards to the MAR35, End Of Play PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Luke,Dash) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-1
80.1%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the MOST 19Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 26
OWN 19
0
80.3%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Ramone Green Jr.Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 26
OWN 19
+5
81.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MOST 24Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 21
OWN 24
+41
81.8%
Anthony Frederique punt for 36 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 41 yds to the MOST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10FG
9 plays · 4 yds · 7:2483% → 86%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.9%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
82.8%
Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the MOST 32Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Zion Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
81.5%
Lorcan Quinn 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
82.6%
Demarcus Lacey run for 3 yds to the MOST 16Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
82.9%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the MOST 16Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+1
81.5%
Zion Turner run for 1 yd to the MOST 15Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
86.2%
Lorcan Quinn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 9 yds · 9:2617% → 26%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.6%
Jacob Clark pass to Shomari Lawrence for 9 yds to the MOST 34Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
84.3%
Jacob Clark run for 7 yds to the MOST 41Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
84.0%
Jacob Clark run for 8 yds to the Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-2
82.1%
Jacob Clark sacked by Jamaal Whyce Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MOST 47Similar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for no gain to the MRSH 25Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Jakolbe Baldwin for 4 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
74.1%
Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
73.9%
Toby Payne run for no gain to the MRSH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3675% → 73%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
74.5%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 5 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
74.7%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Ben TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
73.8%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Ben TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:07
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
72.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 35 yds · 17:3228% → 24%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.2%
Jacob Clark pass to Hayden Hagler for 15 yds to the MOST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
71.3%
Jacob Clark pass to Jmariyae Robinson, Missouri State Penalty, passinterference (Dash Luke)Similar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-1
72.6%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yards to the MOST 19Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 26
OWN 19
0
72.8%
Jacob Clark pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 26
OWN 19
+5
73.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 5 yds to the MOST 24Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 21
OWN 24
+41
74.4%
Anthony Frederique punt for 36 yds to the MOST 19, Demarcus Lacey returns for 41 yds to the MOST 19Similar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
72.5%
Ramone Green Jr. run for 8 yds to the MOST 24Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
71.1%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Makai CopeSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+8
72.6%
Jacob Clark run for 8 yds to the MOST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
71.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 23 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.6%
Jacob Clark pass incomplete to Jmariyae RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-12
68.1%
Jacob Clark sacked by Braydin Ward for a loss of 12 yards to the MOST 43 Jacob Clark fumbled, recovered by MOST Jacob Clark , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 22
OWN 43
+8
75.2%
Jacob Clark run for 8 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
76.0%
Anthony Frederique punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 18:2478% → 87%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
77.5%
Demarcus Lacey run for 3 yds to the MOST 16Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
77.6%
Justin Williams-Thomas runSimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+1
76.8%
Zion Turner run for 1 yd to the MOST 15Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
75.5%
Lorcan Quinn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
83.6%
Zion Turner run for 26 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (Demarcus Lacey) to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.1%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 12 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
86.2%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 6 yds to the MOST 47Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
87.3%
Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the MOST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
87.6%
Zion Turner pass complete to Toby Payne for 26 yds to the MOST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
87.9%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 5 yds to the MOST 12Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+4
88.2%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 4 yds to the MOST 8Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
87.6%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Bryan RobinsonSimilar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+26
86.5%
Lorcan Quinn 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:4728% → 31%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
72.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 19 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the MOST 48Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
69.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jmariyae Robinson for 52 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16INT
10 plays · 3 yds · 21:5872% → 38%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
72.0%
Jacob Clark pass to Makai Cope for 19 yds to the MOST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
69.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the MOST 48Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
69.0%
Jacob Clark pass to Jmariyae Robinson for 52 yds to the MRSH 0, for a TD for a 1ST down (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.3%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to Toby PayneSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
38.7%
Zion Turner run for 3 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
38.5%
Zion Turner pass incomplete to De'Andre TamarezSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 7
OWN 38
-5
38.2%
Zion Turner pass intercepted Kanye Young return for 5 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:1755% → 73%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
44.6%
Jacob Clark sacked by Kerion Martin for a loss of 5 yards to the MOST 15Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+9
43.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 9 yds to the MOST 24Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
43.2%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Tristian Gardner for 7 yds to the MOST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
40.3%
Shomari Lawrence run for no gain to the MOST 31Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
38.8%
Missouri State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+55
42.3%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 55 yds to the MRSH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
30.8%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 19Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+11
28.4%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Makai Cope for 11 yds to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
26.9%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Jeron Askren for 8 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MOSTDrive 18END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4174% → 96%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
26.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 8 yds to the MRSH 22Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+17
24.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 17 yds to the MRSH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
24.0%
(01:34) Kneel down by Missouri St. at MAR07 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
17.4%
(01:14) Kneel down by Missouri St. at MAR09 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
4.4%
(00:17) Kneel down by Missouri St. at MAR10 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:12
Timeout Marshall, clock 02:12
+19.6
TD · Q2 11:07
Zion Turner run for 14 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 13:57
Jacob Clark pass complete to Ramone Green Jr. for 57 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com