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UTEP

UTEP 16 at Utah State 28

USU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 2 yds to the USU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Offense timeouts−16.3Defense timeouts−15.4Home team on offense+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Pregame prior+2.4Time remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:30: Kenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick) — UTEP win probability +6.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q1 0:18: Miles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick) — USU win probability +6.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. FG · Q2 8:36: Tanner Rinker 28 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +3.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · Q2 0:02: Carlos Arrelola 42 Yd Field Goal — UTEP win probability +5.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q3 8:35: Bryson Barnes 12 Yd Run (Anthony Garcia Run for Two-Point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +4.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UTEP made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 9:48USU 4th & 20 at UTEP 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:52UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58USU 4th & 17 at USU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:48USU 4th & 22 at USU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47USU 4th & 2 at USU 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:41UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 18, up 4
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36USU 4th & 10 at UTEP 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:39UTEP 4th & 15 at USU 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:15UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:14UTEP 4th & 12 at USU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40UTEP 4th & 21 at UTEP 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−3.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:15USU 4th & 25 at USU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−5.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:42UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:27USU 4th & 16 at USU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−4.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:54USU 4th & 2 at USU 46, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:46USU 4th & 7 at USU 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:38UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 19, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:24USU 4th & 11 at USU 37, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:20UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 16, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:25USU 4th & 14 at USU 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:06UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 27, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:03UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:30UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:18USU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:0857% → 51%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
56.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd Utah State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the USU 15Similar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+10
56.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 10 yds to the USU 25Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
55.9%
Miles Davis run for 13 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
55.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 17 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
54.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
54.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 9 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
53.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 4 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
53.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
52.4%
Utah State Penalty, false start (Anthony Garcia) to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-3
52.1%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Ashaad Hall and Micah Davey for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 27 Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jimmy Liston) to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-4
51.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+49
51.2%
Tanner Rinker 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5549% → 49%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
51.1%
Kam Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
51.0%
Kam Thomas run for 1 yd to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
51.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
50.8%
Noah Botsford punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5650% → 47%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
49.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 14 yds to the USU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
49.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
49.1%
Javen Jacobs run for 4 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-11
48.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Udoka Ezeani for a loss of 11 yards to the USU 27Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 17
OWN 27
-5
47.1%
Landon Rehkow punt, punt out-of-bounds at the USU 22 , Kam Thomas returns for no gain to the USU 27 Utah State Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the USU 22Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 22
OWN 22
+11
46.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 39 , Kam Thomas returns for 11 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:0852% → 59%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
48.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 6 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+17
47.7%
Kam Thomas run for 17 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
47.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 4 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
40.9%
Kenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4342% → 40%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
41.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 7 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
42.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
41.2%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 43Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
39.9%
Landon Rehkow punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5961% → 63%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
39.0%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for no gain to the UTEP 10 UTEP Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+10
38.3%
Kenny Odom run for 10 yds to the UTEP 15Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
37.5%
Kam Thomas run for 3 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
36.9%
Kam Thomas run for no gain to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+4
36.8%
Noah Botsford punt for 44 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 4 yds to the USU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
42.8%
Miles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3856% → 58%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.1%
Kam Thomas run for no gain to the UTEP 19Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
44.1%
Kam Thomas run for 9 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
44.0%
Ashten Emory run for 5 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
43.4%
Ashten Emory run for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
42.3%
Malachi Nelson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:5241% → 43%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
40.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Joshua Rudolph and Ashaad Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the USU 24Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+16
39.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 16 yds to the USU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
40.9%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 39Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
39.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 10 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+9
39.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 9 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (Jordan Andrus) to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
40.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady BoydSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
40.0%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+30
38.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miles Davis for 30 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
41.2%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
40.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 2 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
39.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd, broken up by Solo BarnesSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
42.7%
Tanner Rinker 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:5254% → 53%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
45.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Marquez Taylor for 4 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
48.6%
Marquez Taylor run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+4
48.3%
Ashten Emory run for 4 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
47.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
47.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 8 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
46.8%
Marquez Taylor run for 6 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+10
45.9%
Marquez Taylor run for 10 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.8%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Jet ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-8
45.1%
Kam Thomas run for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 18
50
+3
46.8%
Kam Thomas run for 3 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
47.3%
Malachi Nelson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4146% → 46%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
46.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 8 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
45.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 2 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd, broken up by Lantz RussellSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
47.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 18 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
45.8%
Broc Lane 52 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:4957% → 64%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
43.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 4 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
43.0%
Malachi Nelson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
43.2%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 3 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
44.0%
Malachi Nelson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny Odom, broken up by Bronson Olevao Jr.Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
43.5%
Ashten Emory run for 11 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.7%
Malachi Nelson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+9
41.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Ashten Emory for 9 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
40.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 18 yds to the USU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+42
35.6%
Carlos Arrelola 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:4656% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.5%
Kam Thomas run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
43.6%
Kam Thomas run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
44.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kam Thomas for 13 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
43.3%
Kam Thomas run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
43.9%
Kam Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+11
45.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny Odom for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brevin Hamblin) to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
42.4%
Malachi Nelson run for 3 yds to the USU 41Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
42.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Mason FergusonSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-5
42.5%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (Udoka Ezeani) to the USU 46Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
44.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
46.4%
Noah Botsford punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 2:3534% → 35%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
33.7%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the USU 7Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+19
33.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 4 yds to the USU 11 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, roughing passer (Donte Thompson) to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
35.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 33 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
40.3%
Javen Jacobs run for 4 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+10
39.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 10 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
35.3%
Bryson Barnes 12 Yd Run (Anthony Garcia Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:5560% → 54%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
40.5%
Ashten Emory run for no gain to the UTEP 30 UTEP Penalty, illegal block (Udoka Ezeani) to the UTEP 15Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 25
OWN 15
0
45.0%
Shay Smith pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+1
45.4%
Kam Thomas run for 1 yd to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 24
OWN 16
+3
46.3%
Shay Smith pass complete to Eric Willis III for 3 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 21
OWN 19
+2
46.2%
Noah Botsford punt for 46 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 2 yds to the USU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:1731% → 26%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd, broken up by Elijah BaldwinSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-6
30.6%
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 31Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-9
27.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Elijah Baldwin for a loss of 9 yards to the USU 22Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 25
OWN 22
0
26.3%
Landon Rehkow punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2659% → 53%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kam Thomas for 5 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
41.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Hahsaun Wilson for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-7
42.5%
Malachi Nelson sacked by John Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
46.6%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (Udoka Ezeani) to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+8
47.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USU 30 , Javen Jacobs returns for 8 yds to the USU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0431% → 28%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
31.4%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the USU 30 Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jimmy Liston) to the USU 30Similar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-1
30.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Ashaad Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 19Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 21
OWN 19
0
30.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+10
29.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 10 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 11
OWN 29
-5
27.8%
Utah State Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the USU 24Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
27.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 35 yds , Kam Thomas returns for no gain to the UTEP 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2956% → 36%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
44.5%
Kam Thomas run for 5 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
42.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Eric Willis III for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
50
+27
40.9%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 12 yds to the USU 38 Utah State Penalty, personal foul (Dylan Tucker) to the USU 23Similar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
40.6%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 14 yds to the USU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
40.6%
Kenny Odom run for 6 yds to the USU 3Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
40.5%
Kam Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 4Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
46.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Judah Ezinwa for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, roughing passer (Bronson Olevao Jr.) to the USU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
64.4%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny Odom, broken up by Dylan TuckerSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.1%
Ashten Emory 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0273% → 89%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.6%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
84.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
89.0%
Miles Davis run for 8 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
90.1%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Brady Boyd, broken up by Donte ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Anthony GarciaSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
88.8%
Landon Rehkow puntSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+14
88.7%
Landon Rehkow punt for 53 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 14 yds to the UTEP 45 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcus Torres) to the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5727% → 18%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
72.8%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kam Thomas for 2 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+6
75.4%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kam Thomas for 6 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+6
75.1%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Trevon Tate for 6 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
79.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
79.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Toric Goins Jr. for 2 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
81.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Eric Willis III, broken up by Bryson TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+8
81.9%
Noah Botsford punt for 51 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 8 yds to the USU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0593% → 93%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
92.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the USU 42Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
93.2%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the USU 43Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-6
93.7%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Micah Davey and Elijah Baldwin for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 37Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+5
93.2%
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 5 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5413% → 9%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
86.9%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Toric Goins Jr.Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
87.0%
Marquez Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 16Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
90.5%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kam ThomasSimilar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
90.6%
Noah Botsford punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.5%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 36Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
96.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for no gain to the USU 36 Utah State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the USU 31Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
96.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for no gain to the USU 31Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Kahanu DavisSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+4
96.8%
Landon Rehkow punt for 54 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 4 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:087% → 5%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
92.7%
Malachi Nelson pass complete to Kenny Odom for 7 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+1
94.2%
Malachi Nelson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+3
94.8%
Ashten Emory run for 3 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.3%
Malachi Nelson pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-6
94.7%
Malachi Nelson sacked by Bronson Olevao Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 16
OWN 24
0
95.2%
Malachi Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 16
OWN 24
0
95.3%
Noah Botsford punt for 40 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for no gain to the USU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26Uncategorized
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2296% → 96%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.6%
Miles Davis run for 9 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
95.8%
Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
95.8%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 46Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-1
95.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 45Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-1
95.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:30
Kenny Odom 34 Yd pass from Malachi Nelson (Carlos Arrelola Kick)
-6.3
TD · Q1 0:18
Miles Davis 58 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
+6
FG · Q2 0:02
Carlos Arrelola 42 Yd Field Goal
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com