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APSU

Austin Peay 34 at Middle Tennessee 14

MTSU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:11 · Ashton Logan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Javious Bond at the APSU 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior+34.7Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:03: Jackson Head 4 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick) — APSU win probability +17.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:04: Carson Smith 40 Yd Field Goal — MTSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 38%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:56: Nahzae Cox 14 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick) — MTSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:48: Carson Smith 36 Yd Field Goal — APSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:42: Austin Smith 2 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick) — APSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12APSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:36MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44MTSU 4th & 4 at APSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:18APSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:33MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:46MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 29, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−7.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 31, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:04APSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−10.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:51MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:33APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 31, up 17
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:59MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:02APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−4.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:56APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:48APSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−5.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−12.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:34MTSU 4th & 21 at MTSU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:59MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 31, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:56MTSU 4th & 5 at APSU 49, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:07APSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 37, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:15MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:45APSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:38APSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:03APSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:56MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:42APSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1188% → 88%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
87.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
87.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
87.6%
Ashton Logan punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:3013% → 15%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
87.5%
Chris Parson run for 4 yds to the APSU 41 Chris Parson fumbled, recovered by APSU Zak BowdenSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
87.4%
Courtland Simmons run for 11 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
87.2%
Chris Parson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the APSU 49Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+5
87.1%
Chris Parson run for 5 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+22
86.7%
Chris Parson pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 22 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
86.4%
Courtland Simmons run for 2 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
85.2%
Chris Parson pass complete to Jaden Robinson for 22 yds for a TD (Carson Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2886% → 85%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Hunter TiptonSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
85.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 19 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
85.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 42Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
84.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Ashton Logan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Javious Bond at the APSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3515% → 16%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
84.6%
Javious Bond run for 1 yd to the APSU 9Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
84.2%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
84.2%
Courtland Simmons run for no gain to the APSU 9Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
83.9%
Gavin Myers punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3484% → 83%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
84.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the APSU 47Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
83.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
83.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron LacySimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
83.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Cam'ron LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0017% → 23%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.6%
Kaden Williams run for 2 yds to the APSU 49Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
82.2%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Jase SkoglundSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+6
82.2%
Chris Parson run for 6 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
81.9%
Chris Parson pass complete to Jackson Head for 3 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
81.1%
Javious Bond run for 5 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
80.7%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+36
80.7%
Chris Parson pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 36 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.2%
Courtland Simmons run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5478% → 77%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
77.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 15 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Tayvion GallowaySimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
77.5%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
77.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 46Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
76.5%
Ashton Logan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Javious Bond at the APSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 89 yds · 8:5725% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
74.7%
Corey Richardson run for no gain to the APSU 11Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+13
74.4%
Chris Parson pass complete to Javious Bond for 13 yds to the APSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
73.5%
Nate Garnett Jr. run for 9 yds to the APSU 33Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
72.3%
Javious Bond run for 4 yds to the APSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
71.3%
Chris Parson run for 4 yds to the APSU 41Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
70.3%
Chris Parson run for 6 yds to the APSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
68.8%
Chris Parson run for 7 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
67.8%
Corey Richardson run for 1 yd to the MTSU 45Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
67.3%
Courtland Simmons run for 3 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Kamari MaxwellSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
65.4%
Javious Bond run for 1 yd to the MTSU 41Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+9
64.7%
Chris Parson pass complete to Javious Bond for 9 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
62.7%
Corey Richardson run for 17 yds to the MTSU 15 Corey Richardson fumbled, recovered by APSU Corey Richardson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
62.4%
PENALTY APSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MTSU15 to MTSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
62.3%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Nate Garnett Jr.Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+5
62.2%
Nate Garnett Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 15Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+11
61.4%
Chris Parson pass complete to Shemar Kirk for 11 yds to the MTSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Jackson Head 4 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:1151% → 47%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
49.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
49.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
46.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
47.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+7
46.6%
Ashton Logan punt for 48 yds , Javious Bond returns for 7 yds to the APSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2160% → 61%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
40.4%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Parson,Chris rush right for 15 yards gain to the APSU45 (Hughes,Parker) PENALTY APSU Holding (Ba,Saidou) 10 yards from APSU30 to APSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+5
39.6%
Chris Parson pass complete to Jade Kneeland for 5 yds to the APSU 25Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-6
39.3%
Chris Parson sacked by Damonte Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the APSU 19Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+12
39.1%
Javious Bond run for 12 yds to the APSU 31Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
38.9%
Gavin Myers punt for 36 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for no gain to the MTSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 1:2445% → 46%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
45.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
49.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 11 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
51.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the APSU 45Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+8
44.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 8 yds to the APSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
53.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 12 yds to the APSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
53.4%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas rush left for 1 yard gain to the APSU24 (Hood,Davion) PENALTY APSU Offside (Cox Jr.,TJ) 5 yards from APSU25 to APSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+15
46.0%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short left to Cox,Nahzae thrown to APSU01, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY APSU Pass Interference (Ellis Jr.,Ellis) 15 yards from APSU20 to APSU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.9%
Nahzae Cox 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
27.3%
Courtland Simmons run for 5 yds to the APSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5069% → 63%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.0%
Javious Bond run for a loss of 5 yards to the APSU 20Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
29.9%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Jaden RobinsonSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+21
30.7%
Chris Parson run for 6 yds to the APSU 26 for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, (15 Yards) to the APSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
28.2%
Chris Parson pass complete to Nate Garnett Jr. for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 1
50
+15
25.2%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Parson,Chris pass incomplete deep left to Robinson,Jaden thrown to MTSU15 PENALTY MTSU Pass Interference (Ferrell,Trevon) 15 yards from APSU50 to MTSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
25.0%
Javious Bond run for 13 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
22.9%
Javious Bond run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+4
21.8%
Chris Parson run for 4 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
20.9%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Nate Garnett Jr.Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
37.5%
Carson Smith 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0939% → 36%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
39.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
35.8%
Ashton Logan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Javious Bond at the APSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0766% → 69%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
34.4%
Kaden Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the APSU 22Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+8
33.4%
Chris Parson pass complete to Kamari Maxwell for 8 yds to the APSU 30Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+1
32.6%
Chris Parson run for 1 yd to the APSU 31Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
31.3%
Gavin Myers punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2634% → 30%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
33.8%
Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
33.9%
(07:07) PENALTY MTSU False Start (Guevara,Mateo) 5 yards from MTSU42 to MTSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
30.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 1 yd to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
30.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
29.8%
Ashton Logan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Javious Bond at the APSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5073% → 73%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
27.2%
Corey Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the APSU 11Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
26.1%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Kamari MaxwellSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
26.6%
Chris Parson pass incomplete to Shemar KirkSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+9
26.6%
Gavin Myers punt for 42 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 9 yds to the APSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5931% → 44%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the APSU 42Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
29.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+15
29.1%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short left to Carter,Gamarion thrown to APSU30 PENALTY APSU Roughing The Passer (Sandifer,Al) 15 yards from APSU42 to APSU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
30.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 10 yds to the APSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
29.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the APSU 14Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
44.3%
Nahzae Cox 14 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5462% → 63%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.5%
Austin Smith pass complete to Jaden Robinson for 9 yds to the APSU 34Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
37.0%
Courtland Simmons run for 4 yds to the APSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
34.8%
Courtland Simmons run for 1 yd to the APSU 39Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Syir SuttonSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
34.5%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Courtland SimmonsSimilar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+6
37.1%
Gavin Myers punt for 29 yds , Jekail Middlebrook returns for 6 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5737% → 33%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
36.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
33.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 6 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
33.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0769% → 83%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
31.4%
PENALTY APSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MTSU44 to MTSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+41
31.6%
Austin Smith pass complete to Nate Garnett Jr. for 41 yds to the MTSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
30.2%
Courtland Simmons run for 4 yds to the MTSU 4Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
29.2%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Austin rush left for 4 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:39 PENALTY APSU Holding (Hilliard,Nick) 10 yards from MTSU04 to MTSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
29.3%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Jackson HeadSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
30.1%
Austin Smith sacked by Zeion Simpson-Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 19Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
17.2%
Carson Smith 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0027% → 23%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
26.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Joquarri Price for a loss of 11 yards to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 21
OWN 29
0
23.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to AJ JonesSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 21
OWN 29
0
22.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+55
22.6%
Ashton Logan punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTSU 28 , Javious Bond returns for 55 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:4688% → 98%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
12.0%
Kaden Williams run for 7 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
11.2%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Nate Garnett Jr.Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+8
11.5%
Austin Smith run for 8 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
10.1%
Courtland Simmons run for 4 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
9.5%
Austin Smith pass complete to Jackson Head for 1 yd to the MTSU 8Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
8.7%
Austin Smith run for 6 yds to the MTSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.1%
Austin Smith 2 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 18 yds · 3:423% → 1%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Myles ButlerSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jekail MiddlebrookSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
2.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 9 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
3.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the MTSU 25Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 10 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
1.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Amorion Walker for 4 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
1.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 7 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
1.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Rickey Hunt Jr. for 1 yd to the MTSU 47Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
1.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Nahzae Cox for 4 yds to the APSU 49Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
1.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Nahzae CoxSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-8
1.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by TJ Cox Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
1.0%
Corey Richardson run for 3 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
0.9%
Corey Richardson run for 1 yd to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
0.9%
Austin Smith run for 2 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
0.8%
Logan Leftrick punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
1.0%
Roman Gagliano pass complete to AJ Jones for 5 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-9
0.9%
Roman Gagliano sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-8
0.8%
Roman Gagliano sacked by Jaycob Neely for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 16Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 22
OWN 16
0
0.7%
Ashton Logan punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.4%
A. Smith takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
0.3%
A. Smith takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:03
Jackson Head 4 Yd pass from Chris Parson (Carson Smith Kick)
-17.3
FG · Q3 11:04
Carson Smith 40 Yd Field Goal
+16.6
TD · Q3 2:56
Nahzae Cox 14 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com