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ME

Maine 7 at Liberty 28

LIB
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty'ee Stephens for 20 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — LIB win probability +6.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:03: Timeout Liberty, clock 12:03 — LIB win probability +9.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:24: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Evan Dickens for 24 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — LIB win probability +18.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:24: Max Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Liberty Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Max Morgan) — LIB win probability +4.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:33: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK) — LIB win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ME made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 6:16LIB 4th & 19 at ME 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:22ME 4th & 3 at LIB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:21LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:57ME 4th & 18 at ME 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:53LIB 4th & 11 at ME 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:51ME 4th & 9 at ME 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:39LIB 4th & 9 at ME 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:59ME 4th & 8 at LIB 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:16LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:38ME 4th & 8 at LIB 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36LIB 4th & 1 at ME 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−4.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:36LIB 4th & 1 at ME 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−4.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:03ME 4th & 8 at LIB 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:46LIB 4th & 1 at ME 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−2.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−8.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:40ME 4th & 3 at ME 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:40ME 4th & 3 at ME 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:42ME 4th & 2 at ME 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00ME 4th & 5 at ME 48, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ME made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:58ME Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:24LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:33LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:38LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1MISSED FG
20 plays · 47 yds · 8:3595% → 93%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.4%
Caden Williams run for 5 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
95.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 6 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for no gain to the LIB 45Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
50
+6
95.0%
Ethan Vasko run for 6 yds to the ME 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
94.9%
Julian Gray run for 6 yds to the ME 38Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
94.8%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the ME 35Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
94.7%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the ME 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
94.6%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the ME 29Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
94.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
94.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 9 yds to the ME 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
94.3%
Caden Williams run for 7 yds to the ME 13Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
94.2%
Ethan Vasko run for 5 yds to the ME 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
94.0%
Ethan Vasko run for a loss of 2 yards to the ME 10Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
93.9%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Vasko,Ethan pass incomplete short right to Henderson,Austin thrown to MAINE06 QB hurried by Hudson,Sherrod PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Cain,Casey) 15 yards from MAINE10 to MAINE25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
0
93.8%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+6
93.6%
Caden Williams run for 6 yds to the ME 19Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
93.4%
Jay Billingsley 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:497% → 9%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Molayo IrefinSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.3%
Sincere Baines run for 4 yds to the ME 24Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
93.2%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scott Woods for 10 yds to the ME 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
92.8%
Carter Peevy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ME 33Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+14
92.7%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Trevin Ewing for 14 yds to the ME 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
92.1%
Rashawn Marshall run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 7
50
+12
91.6%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Molayo Irefin for 12 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.4%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
91.3%
Rashawn Marshall run for 3 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
91.1%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Molayo Irefin for 4 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-7
91.1%
Carter Peevy sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4992% → 91%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for no gain to the LIB 38Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
91.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Elijah Canion for 6 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
91.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Max Morgan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Scott Woods at the ME 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
88.3%
Sincere Baines run for 77 yds for a TD (Samuel Tremblay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2188% → 87%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
88.3%
Ethan Vasko run for 3 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
88.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
87.5%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
87.2%
Max Morgan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 5:1713% → 18%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
87.1%
Rashawn Marshall run for 8 yds to the ME 27Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
86.3%
Rashawn Marshall run for 6 yds to the ME 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.9%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
85.9%
Rashawn Marshall run for no gain to the ME 33Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
85.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Evan Wallace for 11 yds to the ME 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
83.9%
Sincere Baines run for a loss of 1 yard to the ME 43Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-5
83.5%
PENALTY MAINE Delay Of Game 5 yards from MAINE43 to MAINE38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+7
83.7%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Elijah Smalls for 7 yds to the ME 45Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-9
81.7%
Carter Peevy sacked by Brenton Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the ME 36Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
82.5%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reese Smith at the LIB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:5482% → 79%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
82.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 15 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.4%
Evan Dickens run for 8 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+13
82.5%
Julian Gray run for 13 yds to the ME 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.4%
Evan Dickens run for no gain to the ME 41Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
81.7%
Evan Dickens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ME 42Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
80.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
79.3%
Max Morgan punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Scott Woods at the ME 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4918% → 19%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
82.1%
Sincere Baines run for 1 yd to the ME 15Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
80.8%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
81.2%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Evan WallaceSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+4
81.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 38 , Reese Smith returns for 4 yds to the LIB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0579% → 82%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
78.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 14 yds to the ME 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
79.3%
Caden Williams run for 1 yd to the ME 47Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
83.7%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
83.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Austin HendersonSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
82.0%
Max Morgan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Scott Woods at the ME 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:0221% → 24%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
78.8%
Carter Peevy run for 6 yds to the ME 22Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+8
78.1%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scott Woods for 8 yds to the ME 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.8%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Trevin EwingSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
78.0%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Sincere Baines for 11 yds to the ME 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
76.2%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scott Woods for 3 yds to the ME 44Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-6
76.5%
Carter Peevy sacked by CJ Bazile Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ME 38 Carter Peevy fumbled, recovered by LIB CJ Bazile Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 0:1282% → 87%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
81.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds to the ME 29Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+20
82.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 20 yds to the ME 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
84.3%
C. Peevy takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:5617% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Sincere Baines run for no gain to the ME 25Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.7%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scott Woods for 13 yds to the ME 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
81.1%
Maine Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+26
82.0%
Sincere Baines run for 26 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
79.4%
Sincere Baines run for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
79.0%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
79.2%
Maine Penalty, Personal Foul (Sincere Baines) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
80.6%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:3783% → 81%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
82.8%
Ethan Vasko run for 15 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
82.7%
Julian Gray run for 11 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.7%
Julian Gray run for 8 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
83.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
82.6%
Caden Williams run for no gain to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Max Morgan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3122% → 25%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
78.4%
Rashawn Marshall run for 2 yds to the ME 20Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+19
78.2%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Molayo Irefin for 19 yds to the ME 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
75.7%
Rashawn Marshall run for 9 yds to the ME 48Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
73.6%
Rashawn Marshall run for 7 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.9%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Molayo IrefinSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
72.9%
Sincere Baines run for 2 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
72.7%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Sincere BainesSimilar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
75.2%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:5277% → 74%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
76.9%
Vaughn Blue run for 4 yds to the LIB 10Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+4
76.9%
Ethan Vasko run for 4 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+2
74.9%
Caden Williams run for 2 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
75.9%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
74.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jamari Person for 5 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+23
73.8%
Caden Williams run for 23 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
77.3%
Ethan Vasko run for a loss of 4 yards to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+17
74.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Casey Cain for 17 yds to the ME 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
76.8%
Evan Dickens run for 8 yds to the ME 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
77.9%
Julian Gray run for no gain to the ME 31Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
76.1%
Evan Dickens run for 1 yd to the ME 30Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
73.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Austin HendersonSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
73.6%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Austin HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:2634% → 36%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
66.3%
Rashawn Marshall run for 30 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
61.2%
Rashawn Marshall run for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
60.6%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Molayo IrefinSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
60.9%
Maine Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sincere Baines) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
63.8%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Molayo IrefinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 1:3072% → 91%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
71.6%
Evan Dickens run for 6 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
73.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+26
71.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the ME 45 for a 1ST down Maine Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bacon) to the ME 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
75.0%
PENALTY LU False Start (Cain,Casey) 5 yards from MAINE30 to MAINE35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
73.0%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Jamari PersonSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+11
72.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the ME 24Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
91.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Evan Dickens for 24 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3614% → 14%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.9%
Sincere Baines run for no gain to the ME 40Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
85.9%
Carter Peevy pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:5093% → 99%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.2%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.0%
Ethan Vasko run for 2 yds to the ME 46Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
92.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Elijah Canion for 15 yds to the ME 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
95.1%
Evan Dickens run for 5 yds to the ME 26Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
95.6%
Julian Gray run for 1 yd to the ME 25Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
95.4%
Evan Dickens run for 3 yds to the ME 22Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
95.1%
Ethan Vasko run for 1 yd to the ME 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
96.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the ME 16Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
96.1%
Ethan Vasko pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 16 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
Sincere Baines run for 2 yds to the ME 27Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Molayo IrefinSimilar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Evan WallaceSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
98.0%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Peevy,Carter pass incomplete short left to Irefin,Molayo thrown to MAINE35 broken up by Harmon,Damond PENALTY LU Offside (Bazile, Jr.,CJ) 5 yards from MAINE27 to MAINE32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Scott WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:5599% → 100%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.4%
Ethan Vasko run for 15 yds to the ME 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.5%
Evan Dickens run for 4 yds to the ME 13Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Evan Dickens run for no gain to the ME 13Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Ethan Vasko run for 13 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Carter Peevy run for 1 yd to the ME 26Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Rashawn Marshall run for 6 yds to the ME 32Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
Carter Peevy run for 1 yd to the ME 33Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Carter Peevy run for 10 yds to the ME 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass incomplete to Sincere BainesSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Sincere Baines run for 5 yds to the ME 48Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Sincere Baines for no gain to the ME 48Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+20
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty'ee Stephens for 20 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:24
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Evan Dickens for 24 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
+18.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:03
Timeout Liberty, clock 12:03
+9.7
TD · Q2 0:07
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Jay Billingsley KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com