2025 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025 · Delaware Stadium
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Win probability · DEL
modelDEL aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playDEL scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:18 · Dyson Roberts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jake Thaw at the DEL 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:46: Patrick Fisher-Butler 40 yd FG GOOD — DSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:29: Kaiden Bennett run for 23 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jestus Johnson) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK) — DSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 10:44: Kahlil Ali 45 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed Kick) — DEL win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:10: Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Marquis Gillis for 39 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kaiden Bennett) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK) — DSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:15: Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 50 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DEL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:55DEL 4th & 1 at DEL 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:59DEL 4th & 10 at DEL 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q1 10:30DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q1 10:30DEL 4th & 4 at DSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.8%48% to convertField goal95.7%−<0.160% to makePunt95.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:18DSU 4th & 29 at DEL 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 12:58DEL 4th & 2 at DEL 33, tiedClose callPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:33DSU 4th & 1 at DEL 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.7%71% to convertField goal8.3%−0.549% to makePunt8.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 6:46DSU 4th & 13 at DEL 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.519% to convertField goalTheir call10.7%70% to makePunt8.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 2:40DSU 4th & 12 at DSU 23, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q4 13:00DEL 4th & 8 at DSU 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.6%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call92.8%56% to makePunt92.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 6:15DSU 4th & 1 at DSU 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DEL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 3:44DEL Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33DEL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:29DSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.0%97% to makeGo for two12.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:15DEL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:44DEL Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:10DSU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:15DEL Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDELDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 24 yds · 2:5697% → 96%
DSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:294% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 3FUMBLE9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5596% → 95%
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
95.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 6 yds to the DSU 28Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for no gain to the DSU 28Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+7
95.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 7 yds to the DSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+17
95.3%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 17 yds Jo Silver fumbled, recovered by DSU Dasheen JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4PUNT14 plays · 30 yds · 6:175% → 7%
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+2
95.1%
Delaware Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (2 Yards) to the DSU 23Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+9
95.2%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to James Jones for 9 yds to the DSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 4
50
+4
95.0%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Marquis Gillis for 4 yds to the DEL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
95.0%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Terrence Rone for 17 yds to the DEL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
93.4%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Dasheen Jackson for 3 yds to the DEL 32Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-11
93.7%
Kaiden Bennett sacked by Dillon Trainer for a loss of 11 yards to the DEL 43Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 24
OPP 43
-5
93.9%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game (Roberts,Dyson) 5 yards from DEL43 to DEL48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 29
OPP 48
0
93.4%
Dyson Roberts punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jake Thaw at the DEL 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:2094% → 92%
Q1 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
93.5%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Nick Laboy for 6 yds to the DEL 18Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+7
92.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Brandon Rehmann for 7 yds to the DEL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
93.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass complete deep right to Kelly,Ja'Carree caught at DEL50, for 24 yards to the DEL50 QB hurried by Robinson,Quincy (Scaife IV,Samuel) PENALTY DEL Holding (Snyder,Cole) 10 yards from DEL26 to DEL16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
93.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass complete short middle to Sessoms,Elijah caught at DEL20, for 5 yards to the DEL21 (Bennett,Kaiden) PENALTY DSU Offside (Cossignani,Alexander) 5 yards from DEL16 to DEL21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6FG16 plays · 50 yds · 6:128% → 12%
Q2 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
91.2%
Marquis Gillis run for 12 yds for a 1ST down Delaware State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Antoine De Lau) to the DEL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
90.7%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Marquis Gillis for 3 yds to the DEL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
90.5%
PENALTY DSU False Start (Jones,James) 5 yards from DEL19 to DEL24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 14
OPP 24
-10
91.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bennett,Kaiden rush right for 10 yards gain to the DEL14 (Trainer,Dillon; Matthews,Blake) PENALTY DSU Holding (Dau,Diu) 10 yards from DEL24 to DEL34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 7TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0286% → 92%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 18 yds to the DEL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
87.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 6 yds to the DEL 49Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+29
87.5%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 29 yds to the DSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
88.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 12 yds to the DSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
88.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Silver,Jo rush left for 7 yards gain to the DSU03 (Smith,Allen) PENALTY DEL Illegal Formation (Minicucci,Nick) 5 yards from DSU10 to DSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
88.0%
PENALTY DEL False Start (Rosahac,Noah) 5 yards from DSU15 to DSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+12
87.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 12 yds to the DSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0410% → 10%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.8%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game (Bennett,Kaiden) 5 yards from DSU25 to DSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
90.3%
Delaware State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Kaiden Bennett) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Dyson Roberts punt for 54 yds , Jake Thaw returns for no gain to the DEL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 9TD12 plays · 77 yds · 2:0790% → 94%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
90.4%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Quincy Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the DEL 21Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+16
90.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 16 yds to the DEL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
91.2%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 7 yds to the DSU 45Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+9
90.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 9 yds to the DSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
91.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 14 yds to the DSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
91.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 9 yds to the DSU 13Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
91.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick sacked for loss of 7 yards to the DSU15 (Cobbs,Alexander) PENALTY DSU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from DSU08 to DSU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 11TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:317% → 14%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
93.4%
Kaiden Bennett run for 6 yds to the DSU 29 Kaiden Bennett fumbled, recovered by DSU Isaiah CookSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
93.5%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Maurice Clark for 6 yds to the DSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
93.2%
Delaware Penalty, Personal Foul (James Yelbert Jr.) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+19
93.1%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Samuel Scaife IV for 19 yds to the DEL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.6%
Kaiden Bennett run for 23 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jestus Johnson) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 12TD8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0190% → 93%
DSUDrive 13INT8 plays · 53 yds · 2:368% → 9%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
90.4%
PENALTY DSU False Start (De Lau,Antoine) 5 yards from DEL25 to DEL30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
90.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bennett,Kaiden rush middle for 10 yards gain to the DEL20 (Cox Jr.,Kshawn) PENALTY DEL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from DEL30 to DEL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
91.0%
Kaiden Bennett pass intercepted KT Seay return for no gain to the DEL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 14MISSED FG14 plays · 63 yds · 6:3993% → 93%
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+5
93.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 5 yds to the DEL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.2%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Emerson Martin Iii for a loss of 1 yard to the DEL 33Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+5
93.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Elijah Sessoms for 5 yds to the DEL 38Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+7
93.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 7 yds to the DEL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
93.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 10 yds to the DSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
94.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass intercepted by Scaife IV,Samuel at DSU03 Scaife IV,Samuel return 13 yards to the DSU16 (Kelly,Ja'Carree) PENALTY DSU Holding 10 yards from DSU42 to DSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
94.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for no gain to the DSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 15INT TD5 plays · 18 yds · 2:169% → 2%
DSUDrive 16TD8 plays · 76 yds · 2:252% → 8%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
97.8%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game (Bennett,Kaiden) 5 yards from DSU24 to DSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+18
97.8%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 18 yds to the DSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+19
97.7%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Nathan Stewart for 19 yds to the DEL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+39
91.9%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Marquis Gillis for 39 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kaiden Bennett) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 17TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:5595% → 99%
Q4 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
94.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
50
0
94.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
50
+50
98.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jake Thaw for 50 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 18PUNT13 plays · 22 yds · 4:212% → 2%
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.9%
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Samuel Scaife IV for 4 yds to the DSU 34Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.8%
Kaiden Bennett pass incomplete to Ryan Pellum Taylor for a 1ST down Delaware Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nyair Domnie) to the DEL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
97.5%
Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the DEL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 19END OF GAME4 plays · 30 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+13
98.9%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 13 yds to the DEL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:44
Kahlil Ali 45 Yd Interception Return (Nate Reed Kick)
+7
TD · Q3 10:29
Kaiden Bennett run for 23 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jestus Johnson) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q4 8:10
Kaiden Bennett pass complete to Marquis Gillis for 39 yds for a TD Delaware State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kaiden Bennett) to the DEL 0 (Patrick Fisher-Butler KICK)
-5.7