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SHSU

Sam Houston 24 at Western Kentucky 41

WKU
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:11 · Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the WKU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 189Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+27.1Score differential+11.5Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:06: La'Vell Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +8.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:29: Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK) — SHSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:58: JaMair Diaz 43 Yd Fumble Return (RJ Lopez Kick) — SHSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:10: Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +15.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:47: Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 22 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — WKU win probability +15.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 13:04WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32SHSU 4th & 7 at WKU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:16WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:47SHSU 4th & 5 at WKU 25, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:55WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:53SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:57WKU 4th & 6 at SHSU 30, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:50SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24WKU 4th & 7 at SHSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:07SHSU 4th & 8 at SHSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:24SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:03WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:21SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:21WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:01SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 38, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:01SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 38, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:48WKU 4th & 5 at SHSU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:48WKU 4th & 5 at SHSU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:11SHSU 4th & 9 at WKU 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SHSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:31WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24SHSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:06WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:29SHSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:58SHSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:10WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:47WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:17WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3773% → 72%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
72.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 11 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
72.8%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
72.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 1 yd to the WKU 30Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
72.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Cole Maynard punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4928% → 28%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
72.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 15 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.4%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 34Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
72.3%
Elijah Green run for 6 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
72.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 3 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
72.0%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 44 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 2:2572% → 74%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
72.1%
Marvis Parrish run for no gain to the WKU 13Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
72.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 6 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+12
71.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 12 yds to the WKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
71.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 25 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+18
72.3%
Marvis Parrish run for 18 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
72.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Marvis ParrishSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+26
74.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 26 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:0326% → 26%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.6%
PENALTY SAM Delay Of Game 5 yards from SAM25 to SAM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
73.6%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
73.6%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass complete short left to Bledsoe III,Darrick caught at SAM33, for 5 yards to the SAM33, End Of Play PENALTY SAM Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Eckardt,Luke) 5 yards from SAM28 to SAM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
73.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 5 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
74.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 7 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+51
74.1%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4928% → 28%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
72.4%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-4
72.5%
Hunter Watson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+8
73.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for 8 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+40
71.6%
RJ Lopez 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4872% → 71%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 2 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
71.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
71.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the WKU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
72.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 5 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-1
72.6%
George Hart III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 37Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
71.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Cameron FlowersSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
71.1%
Cole Maynard punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2929% → 29%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
71.4%
PENALTY SAM False Start 5 yards from SAM24 to SAM19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+5
71.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+36
71.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Rayfield Lotten for 36 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
69.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
69.9%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Chris ReedSimilar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+8
69.9%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
69.0%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the WKU 30Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
69.1%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the WKU 30Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
69.6%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
71.3%
RJ Lopez 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4772% → 70%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.4%
Marvis Parrish run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
70.4%
Cole Maynard punt for 42 yds , Emon Allen returns for 6 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:1829% → 35%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
70.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 7 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+55
64.8%
Hunter Watson run for 55 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0866% → 74%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
66.1%
Marvis Parrish run for 2 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
65.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 18 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
67.6%
Sam Houston Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alonzo Edwards Jr.) to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.4%
Marvis Parrish run for 3 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
68.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Noah MeyersSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+7
67.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 7 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Kelby WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
67.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 12 yds to the SHSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
67.7%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds to the SHSU 9Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
67.6%
Matthew Henry run for no gain to the SHSU 9Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+8
65.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 8 yds to the SHSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.1%
La'Vell Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5529% → 28%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 9 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
70.3%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez HumphreysSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.8%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.7%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the SHSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5074% → 75%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
74.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
74.1%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
73.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to La'Vell Wright for 4 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q2 4:57
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+49
75.2%
John Cannon 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5524% → 24%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.6%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the SHSU 26Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
75.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Aviyon Smith-Mack for 4 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
75.7%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter rush left for 12 yards gain to the SAM42, out of bounds at SAM42 PENALTY SAM Holding (Todd,Cameron) 10 yards from SAM30 to SAM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
76.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Aviyon Smith-Mack for 12 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.2%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 30 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 2:1576% → 81%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
75.8%
K.D. Hutchinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+7
75.0%
Marvis Parrish run for 7 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+4
75.6%
Maverick McIvor run for 4 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
77.1%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 3 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
77.2%
Maverick McIvor run for 5 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
76.7%
(01:19) Shotgun McIvor,Maverick pass incomplete short right to Henry,Matthew thrown to SAM39 broken up by Edwards Jr.,Alonzo, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAM Pass Interference (Edwards Jr.,Alonzo) 6 yards from SAM44 to SAM38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
77.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to George Hart III for 4 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
77.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 7 yds to the SHSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
77.9%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Matthew HenrySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
77.9%
Maverick McIvor run for 3 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
79.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Jairus MackSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
81.0%
John Cannon 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
79.5%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2421% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 15 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+52
77.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 52 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
75.8%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Aviyon Smith-MackSimilar
Q3 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
77.2%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Anthony Brackenridge) to the WKU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds for a TD (RJ Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1271% → 58%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 6 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
72.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 7 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
72.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 47Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+43
58.3%
JaMair Diaz 43 Yd Fumble Return (RJ Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:3457% → 74%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
56.5%
George Hart III run for 12 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Kelby Williams for 14 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
57.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Kelby WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
57.2%
George Hart III run for 6 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
58.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.7%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the SHSU 48Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
59.5%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+37
58.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 37 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5331% → 30%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
68.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Austin Smith for 11 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.5%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
65.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
65.8%
PENALTY SAM False Start (Smith-Mack,Aviyon) 5 yards from SAM43 to SAM38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
67.5%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'NeillSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1070% → 86%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
69.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jairus Mack for 17 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.1%
Marvis Parrish run for no gain to the WKU 30Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+48
69.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Moussa Barry for 48 yds to the SHSU 22 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darrick Bledsoe III) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
85.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 22 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1817% → 16%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.2%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass incomplete deep left to Burns Jr.,Tim thrown to WKU43 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Ward,Nazir) 15 yards from SAM25 to SAM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
82.0%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 38Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
83.1%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
82.6%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Rayfield LottenSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1184% → 84%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
84.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Kelby Williams for 5 yds to the WKU 24Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
84.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Kelby WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+6
83.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Kelby Williams for 6 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
84.6%
La'Vell Wright run for 3 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
85.4%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-10
84.9%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Cole Maynard punt for 71 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:1615% → 15%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+29
84.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for 29 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
85.1%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 30Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+3
86.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 3 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+13
87.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Grady O'Neill for 13 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
84.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
84.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Chris ReedSimilar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-6
84.8%
Hunter Watson pass intercepted Jaylen Lewis return for 6 yds to the WKU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:1087% → 97%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
87.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
87.1%
Marvis Parrish run for 7 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
87.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 10 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+55
87.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Matthew Henry for 55 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
88.9%
Marvis Parrish run for 5 yds to the SHSU 4Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Maverick McIvor run for 4 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:414% → 3%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 24Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
96.4%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
96.4%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 32Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
96.6%
Curtis Gerrand punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jairus Mack at the WKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4997% → 98%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
97.2%
Marvis Parrish run for 7 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Marvis Parrish run for no gain to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-4
97.6%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Chauncey Chidi for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+13
97.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds , Emon Allen returns for 13 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:163% → 3%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Landan BrownSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Grady O'NeillSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Malik PhillipsSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Aviyon Smith-MackSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Aviyon Smith-MackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0798% → 99%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
98.2%
George Hart III run for 7 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
98.3%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-4
99.3%
George Hart III run for a loss of 4 yards to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
99.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Quincy BurroughsSimilar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
99.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incomplete to Quincy BurroughsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:192% → 2%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
97.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Aviyon Smith-Mack for 11 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
97.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Green for 35 yds to the WKU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
97.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Darrick Bledsoe III for 12 yds to the WKU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
97.3%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the WKU 1Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-8
97.3%
Hunter Watson sacked by Jayden Gray for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Aviyon Smith-Mack for no gain to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
97.8%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the WKU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 1:0399% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.4%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds to the WKU 6Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+12
99.5%
La'Vell Wright run for 12 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:47
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Marvis Parrish for 22 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q3 8:10
Maverick McIvor pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 9 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q3 11:58
JaMair Diaz 43 Yd Fumble Return (RJ Lopez Kick)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com