Try the model
FIU

Florida International 10 at UConn 51

CONN
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:42 · Connor Stutz punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+30.3Pregame prior+0.9Blowout margin+17.1Garbage-time factor+14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:08: Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:55: Chris Freeman 43 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +3.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:05: Noah Grant 26 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +3.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:22: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:52FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16CONN 4th & 16 at FIU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:55CONN 4th & 11 at FIU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:05FIU 4th & 7 at CONN 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:05FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:25FIU 4th & 5 at CONN 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:21CONN 4th & 6 at FIU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:38FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:46CONN 4th & 10 at FIU 10, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:17FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 4, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:17FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 4, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:07FIU 4th & 20 at FIU 30, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:41CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 42, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:42CONN 4th & 13 at midfield, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:38CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:08CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55CONN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:22CONN Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:56CONN Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:48CONN Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:46FIU Touchdown, down 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5931% → 31%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the FIU 26Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
69.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 3 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+3
69.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 3 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
69.1%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1369% → 71%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
69.1%
PENALTY UC False Start (Murawski,Ben) 5 yards from UC31 to UC26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+2
69.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 2 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+8
69.0%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
68.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
69.1%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 44Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
69.0%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+11
68.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 11 yds to the FIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
69.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 5 yds to the FIU 38Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+10
69.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 10 yds to the FIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
69.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 8 yds to the FIU 20Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+2
69.1%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the FIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
71.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 18 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3429% → 30%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.6%
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
70.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 6 yds Devonte Lyons fumbled, recovered by FIU Bryun ParhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3972% → 71%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
71.5%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the FIU 38Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-7
71.7%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Keegan Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the FIU 45 Joe Fagnano fumbled, recovered by FIU Carsten Casady , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
71.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Cam EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
70.7%
Connor Stutz punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5529% → 28%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
71.0%
Kejon Owens run for 1 yd to the FIU 21Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
71.1%
Anthony Carrie run for 7 yds to the FIU 28Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
71.2%
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the FIU 28Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
71.7%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0272% → 77%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
71.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 45 yds to the FIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
72.6%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the FIU 16Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+15
72.5%
Cam Edwards run for 15 yds to the FIU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5625% → 24%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
75.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 6 yds to the FIU 22Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+1
75.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 1 yd to the FIU 23Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
75.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 3 yds to the FIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
75.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 11 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
75.8%
Keyone Jenkins run for 11 yds to the FIU 48 Keyone Jenkins fumbled, recovered by FIU Bryun ParhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:3079% → 83%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Joe Fagnano run for no gain to the FIU 48Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
78.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the FIU 39Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+15
78.5%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 15 yds to the FIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
79.1%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe pass complete short left to Murphy,Reymello caught at FIU26, for 2 yards to the FIU22, out of bounds at FIU22 PENALTY UC Holding (Parker,Chris) 10 yards from FIU24 to FIU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+5
79.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Chris Parker for 5 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+7
79.4%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the FIU 22Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+7
79.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the FIU 15Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-10
79.2%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Cam rush right for 3 yards gain to the FIU12 (Etienne,Websley), out of bounds PENALTY UC Holding (Casady,Carsten) 10 yards from FIU15 to FIU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
83.0%
Chris Freeman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:4318% → 21%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
Anthony Carrie run for 3 yds to the FIU 28Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
81.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Dallas PayneSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
82.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 10 yds to the FIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
81.8%
Anthony Carrie run for 29 yds to the CONN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
80.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 7 yds to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+15
81.0%
Kejon Owens run for 15 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.6%
Kejon Owens run for 2 yds to the CONN 9Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
80.8%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Amir Renwick for a loss of 5 yards to the CONN 14Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+6
82.5%
Keyone Jenkins run for 6 yds to the CONN 8Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
79.4%
Noah Grant 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0781% → 80%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
80.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 7 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-5
81.2%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 5 yards to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
80.5%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Javonte VereenSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
80.0%
Connor Stutz punt for 54 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3720% → 19%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
80.3%
Kejon Owens run for 12 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
80.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Ross Fournet for 5 yds to the FIU 37Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
79.9%
Kejon Owens run for 9 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Maguire AndersonSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
80.1%
Anthony Carrie run for no gain to the FIU 46Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
80.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Kyle McNealSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+13
81.3%
punt blocked by Teddy Williams blocked by Teddy WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:1483% → 83%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
83.0%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe pass incomplete deep left to Vereen,Juice thrown to FIU38 PENALTY FIU Roughing The Passer (Carter,Germaine) 15 yards from UC41 to FIU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
83.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 14 yds Skyler Bell fumbled, recovered by FIU Josiah TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 16 yds · 1:1619% → 19%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
80.8%
Kejon Owens run for 5 yds to the FIU 44Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
80.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Alex PerrySimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
81.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+6
82.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Carrie for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+1
81.0%
Kejon Owens run for 1 yd to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
81.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for no gain to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+4
81.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 4 yds to the CONN 45Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
80.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Maguire AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2586% → 94%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
85.7%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Kenton Simmons for a loss of 6 yards to the CONN 39Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+61
93.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass intercepted Cam Chadwick return for 2 yds to the FIU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:1994% → 94%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
93.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 18 yds to the FIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
93.9%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Keegan Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 27Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+5
94.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 5 yds to the FIU 22Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+4
94.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 4 yds to the FIU 18Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
94.2%
Chris Freeman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.2%
(00:21) Kneel down by FIU at FIU24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2593% → 98%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
93.4%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 29Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
93.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 6 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+65
98.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Alex Perry for 8 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
98.7%
Devonte Lyons run for 12 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kyle McNeal for 1 yd to the FIU 46Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Maguire AndersonSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Dallas PayneSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 9Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
99.0%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20FG
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:4599% → 99%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
98.7%
Cam Edwards run for 9 yds to the CONN 18Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
98.8%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the CONN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jackson Harper for 7 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Javonte VereenSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
99.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 11 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.2%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 45Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+25
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Chris Parker for 25 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
99.3%
MJ Flowers run for 23 yds to the FIU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Javonte VereenSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
99.4%
MJ Flowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FIU 10Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.5%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
99.4%
Chris Freeman 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:181% → 0%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.5%
Kejon Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the FIU 8Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-4
99.5%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Stephon Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the FIU 4Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 16
OWN 4
0
99.5%
Joe Pesansky pass incomplete to JoJo StoneSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 16
OWN 4
+26
99.6%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 49 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 26 yds to the FIU 27Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 16
OWN 4
+26
99.6%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 49 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 26 yds to the CONN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
99.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Chris Parker for 19 yds to the FIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.5%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Cam rush right for 0 yards to the FIU43 (Clark,Mister) PENALTY FIU Holding (Agunloye,Olasunkonmi) 10 yards from FIU43 to FIU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.6%
John Neider pass incomplete to Javonte VereenSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+25
99.6%
Cam Edwards run for 25 yds to the FIU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.6%
(03:34) Shotgun Edwards,Cam rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FIU10 (Courtney Jr.,Percy) PENALTY UC Holding (Hansen,Louis) 10 yards from FIU08 to FIU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+10
99.6%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe pass incomplete short left to Smith,Terrence thrown to FIU08 broken up by Clark,Mister PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Clark,Mister) 10 yards from FIU18 to FIU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Alex HonigSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Anthony Carrie run for 6 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.7%
Anthony Carrie run for 3 yds to the FIU 34Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
99.7%
Joe Pesansky run for 6 yds to the FIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Joe Pesansky run for 2 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
99.8%
Joe Pesansky run for 1 yd to the FIU 43Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-13
99.8%
Joe Pesansky sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 13 yards to the FIU 30Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Trey Wilhoit punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
99.8%
Nick Evers pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 16 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.8%
Nick Evers pass complete to Shamar Porter for 6 yds to the CONN 42Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Nick Evers pass incomplete to Shamar PorterSimilar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Nick Evers pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Connor Stutz punt for 38 yds, fair catch by C'Quan Jnopierre at the FIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Devonte Lyons run for 5 yds to the FIU 25Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Devonte Lyons run for 2 yds to the FIU 27Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-27
99.9%
Joe Pesansky pass intercepted Amir Renwick return for 27 yds to the FIU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for no gain to the FIU 2Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 1 yd to the FIU 1Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for 2 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for 8 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
99.9%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Eric Nelson for 12 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
99.9%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Ross Fournet for 20 yds to the CONN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
99.9%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Jackson Verdugo for 18 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for 7 yds to the CONN 2Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 5Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Joe Pesansky pass incomplete to Alex PerrySimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Pesansky,Joe pass incomplete short left to Perry,Alex thrown to UC00 PENALTY UC Pass Interference (Gilbert,Osiris) 3 yards from UC05 to UC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Grant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
MJ Flowers run for 4 yds to the CONN 32Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+21
99.9%
Ksaan Farrar run for 21 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
MJ Flowers run for 1 yd to the FIU 46Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-4
99.9%
Ksaan Farrar run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 13
50
0
99.9%
Ksaan Farrar pass incomplete to Nader ChirchiSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 13
50
0
99.9%
Connor Stutz punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 29INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to JoJo Stone for 10 yds to the FIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass incomplete to Tyson CarterSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+24
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to Tyson Carter for 24 yds to the FIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.9%
Joe Pesansky sacked by Marquis Black for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 41Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+12
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to JoJo Stone for 12 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
100.0%
Joe Pesansky sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FIU 47Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass complete to JoJo Stone for 4 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Joe Pesansky pass intercepted Aaron Key return for no gain to the CONN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:07100% → 100%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Soren Rief run for no gain to the CONN 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
100.0%
Soren Rief run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:55
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q3 13:22
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q1 2:08
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com