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UConn 20 at Buffalo 17

BUF
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:39 · Connor Stutz punt for 23 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsHome team on offenseTime remainingPregame priorTwo-minute warning
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Defense timeouts−3.8Offense timeouts−4.5Home team on offense−0.5Time remaining−0.4Pregame prior−4.9Two-minute warning+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:33: Lamar Sperling run for 63 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +8.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 11:16: Cam Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +10.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00: Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down — CONN win probability +23.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 1:04: G. Gray pass to A. Henderson for 5 yds for a TD (J. Howes KICK) (J. Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +10.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · Q4 0:11: Chris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal — CONN win probability +11.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:14BUF 4th & 4 at CONN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39CONN 4th & 7 at BUF 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:44BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48CONN 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:48BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:32CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25BUF 4th & 10 at CONN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43BUF 4th & 13 at CONN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:56BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:15BUF 4th & 4 at CONN 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−12.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:31CONN 4th & 3 at BUF 22, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−1.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−15.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:11BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:11CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48BUF 4th & 3 at CONN 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.1%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:55CONN 4th & 11 at BUF 33, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:46BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 8, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−3.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:08CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−4.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:04BUF 4th & 5 at CONN 5, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 23.4 ptsWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%−23.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−46.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:37CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:33BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:16CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:3844% → 40%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.1%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
43.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.3%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 6 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
42.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
42.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-1
42.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 49Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
41.5%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 8 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
41.2%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
40.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-2
40.1%
Victor Snow run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 35Similar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
39.6%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III, broken up by Devin PringleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0961% → 64%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
38.6%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
37.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 4 yds to the CONN 42Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
37.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 5 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
37.5%
Cam Edwards run for 12 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
37.1%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
36.6%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
35.9%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
36.3%
Connor Stutz punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5136% → 35%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
36.2%
Jason Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 14Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
35.6%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
35.2%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+6
34.7%
Dylan Drennan punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CONN 49 , Jackson Harper returns for 6 yds to the CONN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5665% → 65%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
34.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell, broken up by SaVeon BrownSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
34.8%
MJ Flowers run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 9
50
0
34.7%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell, broken up by Solomon BrownSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 9
50
0
35.0%
Connor Stutz punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:5434% → 30%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
34.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
34.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 18Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
33.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.2%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 4 yds to the BUF 24Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
32.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Nik McMillan for 6 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
32.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 4 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+12
32.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 12 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
32.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
32.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-6
32.2%
Gunnar Gray run for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 45 Gunnar Gray fumbled, recovered by BUF Gunnar GraySimilar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
29.8%
Dylan Drennan punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 5:1170% → 82%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
30.2%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 12Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+8
29.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 8 yds to the CONN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 24Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
28.6%
Victor Rosa run for 8 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
28.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 6 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+14
27.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 14 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
26.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 9 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+11
25.5%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 11 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
25.6%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 3 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
17.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0320% → 28%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.7%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 6 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
20.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
20.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
19.8%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 37Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+63
27.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 63 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4975% → 74%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shamar PorterSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.5%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
25.7%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shamar Porter, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
26.1%
punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5329% → 26%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.7%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
28.5%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 46Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+5
27.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
26.8%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3876% → 74%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
24.4%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 11Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
24.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 3 yds to the CONN 14Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
24.5%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Alex HonigSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
26.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0428% → 16%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
27.5%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 20 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
28.8%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Victor Snow) to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+4
18.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
19.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 45Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
17.7%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Al-Jay Henderson, broken up by Tyquan KingSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
16.4%
Dylan Drennan punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
15.3%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3676% → 88%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
24.2%
Joe Fagnano run for 9 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
22.8%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
23.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Terrence Smith for 1 yd to the CONN 37Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+38
22.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 38 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
21.8%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 2 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
21.7%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 7 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
22.4%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 8 yds to the BUF 8 Oliver Lundberg Coleman fumbled, recovered by CONN Brady Wayburn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
12.4%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:0116% → 19%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 9 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
16.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
16.0%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III, broken up by Cam ChadwickSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
15.8%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Nik McMillan for 4 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+3
16.1%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 3 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+15
15.6%
Malin White run for 15 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
15.9%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 6 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
17.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the CONN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
16.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CONN 26Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
16.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the CONN 22Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+1
14.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CONN 21Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
19.0%
Jack Howes 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:2182% → 82%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
17.6%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+1
17.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the CONN 37Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+13
17.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
50
+5
15.8%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
15.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 6 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
15.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive holding (Solomon Brown) to the BUF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
15.7%
MJ Flowers run for 3 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
15.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 5 yds to the BUF 21Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-1
16.3%
MJ Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 22Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
18.1%
Chris Freeman 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1521% → 19%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
20.5%
Lamar Sperling run for 17 yds to the BUF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
22.9%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
22.7%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the BUF 47Similar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks III, broken up by Donovan BranchSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
19.1%
Dylan Drennan punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5383% → 79%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.9%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell, broken up by Kobi BlackwellSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
17.2%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 24Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
20.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Javonte VereenSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
21.4%
Connor Stutz punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1722% → 22%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
21.8%
Jason Wright run for 5 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
24.2%
Jason Wright run for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
23.3%
Jason Wright run for 4 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
24.0%
Jason Wright run for 8 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-1
24.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 47Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
24.5%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
22.4%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor Snow, broken up by D'Mon BrinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4780% → 73%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
19.9%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+13
19.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 13 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
19.2%
Joe Fagnano sacked by George Wolo for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+1
18.9%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the BUF 32Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-1
18.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
26.7%
Jon Morris punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0930% → 26%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
29.6%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
30.3%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Patrick Clacks III) to the BUF 8Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
29.3%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
27.4%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
26.0%
Dylan Drennan punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2676% → 74%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.3%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 5 yards to the CONN 20Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
24.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shamar Porter, broken up by Jalen McNairSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
25.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 8 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
26.1%
Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds , Victor Snow returns for 15 yds to the BUF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4837% → 26%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
36.6%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 27 yds to the CONN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
43.2%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 9 yds to the CONN 21Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+1
42.2%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 1 yd to the CONN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
43.0%
Victor Snow run for 8 yds to the CONN 12Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
19.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
19.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the CONN 5Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
18.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CONN 4Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
14.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 5Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.6%
G. Gray pass to A. Henderson for 5 yds for a TD (J. Howes KICK) (J. Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:4884% → 99%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
17.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Javonte Vereen for 15 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
14.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for 11 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.1%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
13.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell, broken up by Jalen McNairSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
14.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 15 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
12.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+44
1.5%
Chris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
2.5%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for a loss of 3 yards to the BUF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down
-23.1
FG · Q4 0:11
Chris Freeman 44 Yd Field Goal
-11.2
TD · Q4 1:04
G. Gray pass to A. Henderson for 5 yds for a TD (J. Howes KICK) (J. Howes KICK)
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com