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BALL

Ball State 25 at UConn 31

CONN
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.3CONN 92.8%Chris Freeman 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 9:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:48 · Chris Freeman 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+41.6Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:04: Terrence Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +6.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:24: Cam Edwards run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:28: Qua Ashley run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK) — BALL win probability +13.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:09: Kiael Kelly pass complete to Dahya Patel for 11 yds for a TD (Koby Gross pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — BALL win probability +27.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Timeout UConn, clock 00:09 — BALL win probability +3.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:08CONN 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48CONN 4th & 3 at BALL 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:06BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:06CONN 4th & 8 at BALL 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:30CONN 4th & 2 at BALL 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53BALL 4th & 1 at CONN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:32CONN 4th & 6 at BALL 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:46BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:19CONN 4th & 3 at BALL 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:49BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:49CONN 4th & 4 at BALL 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:49CONN 4th & 6 at BALL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:37BALL 4th & 3 at CONN 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−7.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:24CONN 4th & 1 at BALL 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−3.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−4.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:38CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:38BALL 4th & 5 at CONN 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 2:30CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:24CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:28BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:50CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:09BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4594% → 93%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.8%
Cam Edwards run for 20 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.8%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the CONN 45Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
93.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 5
50
0
93.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello MurphySimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 5
50
0
93.4%
Connor Stutz punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:337% → 7%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
93.4%
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 5Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
93.4%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 6Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
93.4%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian MagwoodSimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+25
93.1%
Adam Saul punt for 38 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 25 yds to the BALL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4793% → 93%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
93.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 2 yds to the BALL 17Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-1
93.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 18Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+6
93.1%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BALL 12Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
92.8%
Chris Freeman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:427% → 8%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
92.7%
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
92.6%
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
92.6%
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 46Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-5
92.7%
PENALTY BallSt False Start (Dolan,Adam) 5 yards from BallSt46 to BallSt41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+1
92.4%
Adam Saul punt for 45 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 1 yd to the CONN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 5:3692% → 92%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
92.3%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 17Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+46
92.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 46 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
92.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
92.5%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the BALL 35Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
92.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for no gain to the BALL 35Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+26
92.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 26 yds to the BALL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
92.6%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the BALL 8Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
92.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 3Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
92.5%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the BALL 2Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:328% → 10%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
92.1%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 19Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+53
92.1%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 53 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.5%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to TJ HortonSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
91.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the CONN 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
91.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 3 yds to the CONN 19Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
89.6%
Qian Magwood pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1490% → 89%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
89.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+7
90.1%
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
90.1%
Terrence Smith run for 7 yds to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
90.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Nader Chirchi for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.3%
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 4 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
90.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
90.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to John NeiderSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
88.7%
Connor Stutz punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:4611% → 12%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 9 yds to the BALL 29Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
88.4%
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.8%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Oumar Diomande for 0 yards to the BALL 30Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
88.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 7 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
88.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 4 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
88.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-8
88.2%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 38Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
88.9%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qua AshleySimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
87.7%
Adam Saul punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:2787% → 86%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
87.2%
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
87.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 22Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
87.4%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+6
87.0%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.5%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shamar PorterSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+16
87.4%
Cam Edwards run for 16 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
88.2%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 49Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
88.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 6 yds to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
88.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Cam EdwardsSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
85.7%
Connor Stutz punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:1914% → 17%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
85.6%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 3Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
85.7%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 7Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+9
86.2%
TJ Horton run for 9 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
85.3%
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the BALL 18Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+4
85.4%
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 22Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+16
85.8%
Qua Ashley run for 16 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
84.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 4 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
82.9%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:1116% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.3%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
84.4%
Qua Ashley run for 9 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.9%
TJ Horton run for 3 yds to the BALL 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
83.3%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-8
83.5%
Kiael Kelly sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 32Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+8
84.3%
Adam Saul punt for 36 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 8 yds to the CONN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:4585% → 91%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
84.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Cam EdwardsSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
84.5%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.2%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the BALL 47Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+4
84.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 4 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+5
84.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
85.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
85.7%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the BALL 34Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
85.0%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello MurphySimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+33
83.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 33 yds to the BALL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.7%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the BALL 1Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
85.7%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 3Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe pass incomplete short right to Porter,Shamar thrown to BallSt00 broken up by Whitner,Ashton PENALTY BallSt Roughing The Passer (Beebe,Jack) 2 yards from BallSt03 to BallSt01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.2%
Terrence Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:2710% → 16%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.6%
Kiael Kelly sacked by Malachi McLean for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 20Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+22
89.8%
Eric Weatherly run for 22 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
88.9%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 7 yds to the BALL 49Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+14
88.1%
Qua Ashley run for 14 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.1%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
87.9%
TJ Horton run for 12 yds Ball State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the CONN 35Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+22
87.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 22 yds to the CONN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
86.8%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 7 yds to the CONN 6Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
86.8%
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the CONN 4Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-2
87.6%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 6Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
84.1%
Carson Holmer 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0989% → 96%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lundberg Coleman,Oliver rush right for 5 yards gain to the UConn38 (Chea,Alfred; Glenn,Ameir) PENALTY UConn Holding (Wayburn,Brady) 10 yards from UConn33 to UConn23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+4
89.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+2
89.5%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+19
88.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 19 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
91.0%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BALL 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
91.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the BALL 45Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
90.3%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.0%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Alex HonigSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.8%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
90.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 32Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+32
96.1%
Cam Edwards run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:186% → 7%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.2%
TJ Horton run for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 6 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
93.2%
Kiael Kelly pass intercepted Lee Molette III return for no gain to the CONN 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
96.9%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
96.9%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
96.9%
No Huddle Edwards,Cam rush right for 52 yards gain to the BallSt00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:31 PENALTY UConn Holding declined UConn Holding (Wayburn,Brady) 10 yards from UConn48 to UConn38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+5
96.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Connor Stutz punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:106% → 19%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
94.0%
Qua Ashley run for 13 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
93.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 18 yds to the CONN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
93.1%
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
92.6%
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
93.2%
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric WeatherlySimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+28
94.0%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 28 yds to the CONN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.6%
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the CONN 1Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3594% → 99%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
93.5%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-2
93.3%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 33Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+67
99.1%
Cam Edwards run for 67 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:305% → 33%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
95.3%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 12 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
95.2%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 6 yds to the CONN 47Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
94.6%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 3 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
94.5%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 6 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
94.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 27 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
66.7%
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Dahya Patel for 11 yds for a TD (Koby Gross pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1193% → 93%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 14
OWN 48
-4
93.0%
Kneel down by UConn at UConn44 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+15
92.4%
Ball State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BALL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
92.5%
Kneel down by UConn at BallSt46 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Dahya Patel for 11 yds for a TD (Koby Gross pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.9
TD · Q4 3:28
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
-13
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com