BALL
Ball State 25 at UConn 31
CONN2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
CONN · Drive 1PUNT · 7 plays · 25 yds
Q1 15:00
Carson Holmer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
87.8%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell
89.4%
+1.7
Q1 14:43
Cam Edwards run for 20 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST down
89.3%
-0.1
Q1 14:43
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the CONN 45
89.7%
+0.4
Q1 13:48
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
89.7%
0.0
Q1 13:48
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello Murphy
89.7%
-0.1
Q1 13:08
Connor Stutz punt for 48 yds
89.5%
-0.1
BALL · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q1 13:08
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 5
87.3%
-2.3
Q1 13:08
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 6
87.3%
0.0
Q1 13:08
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qian Magwood
87.3%
0.0
Q1 11:35
Adam Saul punt for 38 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 25 yds to the BALL 19
87.0%
-0.3
CONN · Drive 3FG · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 11:35
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 2 yds to the BALL 17
90.0%
+3.0
Q1 11:35
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 18
90.0%
0.0
Q1 11:35
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BALL 12
89.9%
-0.1
Q1 9:48
Chris Freeman 30 yd FG GOOD
91.6%
+1.6
BALL · Drive 4PUNT · 7 plays · 16 yds
Q1 9:48
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.3%
-0.2
Q1 9:48
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST down
89.8%
-1.5
Q1 9:48
Qua Ashley run for 6 yds to the BALL 43
89.8%
0.0
Q1 9:48
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the BALL 46
89.4%
-0.5
Q1 9:48
Qua Ashley run for no gain to the BALL 46
89.1%
-0.3
Q1 9:48
PENALTY BallSt False Start (Dolan,Adam) 5 yards from BallSt46 to BallSt41. NO PLAY.
89.2%
+0.1
Q1 8:06
Adam Saul punt for 45 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 1 yd to the CONN 15
89.3%
+0.1
CONN · Drive 5TD · 10 plays · 85 yds
Q1 8:06
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 17
91.2%
+1.9
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 46 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST down
91.2%
0.0
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the BALL 35
91.7%
+0.6
Q1 8:06
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the BALL 35
91.7%
0.0
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for no gain to the BALL 35
91.7%
-0.1
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 26 yds to the BALL 9 for a 1ST down
91.4%
-0.2
Q1 8:06
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the BALL 8
91.7%
+0.3
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 3
91.7%
0.0
Q1 8:06
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the BALL 2
91.7%
-0.1
Q1 2:30
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
95.8%
+4.2
BALL · Drive 6TD · 7 plays · 83 yds
Q1 2:25
Chris Freeman kickoff for 60 yds , Qua Ashley return for 12 yds to the BALL 17
95.8%
0.0
Q1 2:25
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 19
92.5%
-3.3
Q1 2:25
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 53 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST down
92.5%
0.0
Q1 2:25
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to TJ Horton
91.9%
-0.7
Q1 2:25
Kiael Kelly run for 6 yds to the CONN 22
91.9%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 3 yds to the CONN 19
92.8%
+0.9
Q2 14:53
Qian Magwood pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
85.6%
-7.2
CONN · Drive 7PUNT · 9 plays · 28 yds
Q2 14:46
Carson Holmer kickoff for 64 yds , Terrence Smith return for 25 yds to the CONN 26
86.6%
+1.0
Q2 14:46
Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the CONN 33
88.7%
+2.1
Q2 14:46
Cam Edwards run for 7 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST down
88.7%
0.0
Q2 14:46
Terrence Smith run for 7 yds to the CONN 47
89.0%
+0.3
Q2 14:46
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Nader Chirchi for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
89.1%
+0.2
Q2 14:46
Oliver Lundberg Coleman run for 4 yds to the BALL 46
89.1%
0.0
Q2 14:46
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell
89.2%
+0.1
Q2 14:46
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to John Neider
89.1%
-0.1
Q2 11:32
Connor Stutz punt for 46 yds for a touchback
88.2%
-1.0
BALL · Drive 8PUNT · 9 plays · 18 yds
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly run for 9 yds to the BALL 29
86.3%
-1.9
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly run for 1 yd to the BALL 30 for a 1ST down
86.3%
0.0
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly sacked by Oumar Diomande for 0 yards to the BALL 30
86.3%
0.0
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 7 yds to the BALL 37
86.3%
0.0
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 4 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST down
86.3%
0.0
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly run for 5 yds to the BALL 46
85.7%
-0.6
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 38
85.3%
-0.4
Q2 11:32
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Qua Ashley
85.9%
+0.6
Q2 6:46
Adam Saul punt for 55 yds
85.4%
-0.4
CONN · Drive 9PUNT · 10 plays · 48 yds
Q2 6:46
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST down
87.4%
+2.0
Q2 6:46
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 22
87.4%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 26
87.4%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST down
87.4%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Shamar Porter
87.4%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Cam Edwards run for 16 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST down
87.4%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 49
87.8%
+0.5
Q2 6:46
Joe Fagnano run for 6 yds to the BALL 45
87.8%
0.0
Q2 6:46
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Cam Edwards
87.9%
0.0
Q2 2:19
Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds
84.9%
-3.0
BALL · Drive 10END OF HALF · 11 plays · 43 yds
Q2 2:19
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 3
82.7%
-2.2
Q2 2:19
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 7
82.7%
0.0
Q2 2:19
TJ Horton run for 9 yds to the BALL 16 for a 1ST down
82.7%
0.0
Q2 2:19
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the BALL 18
82.7%
0.0
Q2 2:19
Qua Ashley run for 4 yds to the BALL 22
82.7%
0.0
Q2 2:19
Qua Ashley run for 16 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down
82.7%
0.0
Q2 2:19
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 4 yds to the BALL 42
82.2%
-0.5
Q2 1:49
Timeout UConn, clock 01:49
83.6%
+1.5
Q2 1:49
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric Weatherly
83.6%
0.0
Q2 0:53
Timeout UConn, clock 00:53
83.8%
+0.1
Q2 0:00
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 44
83.0%
-0.7
BALL · Drive 11PUNT · 7 plays · 7 yds
Q3 15:00
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
83.9%
+0.9
Q3 15:00
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd to the BALL 26
81.9%
-2.1
Q3 15:00
Qua Ashley run for 9 yds to the BALL 35 for a 1ST down
81.9%
0.0
Q3 15:00
TJ Horton run for 3 yds to the BALL 38
81.9%
0.0
Q3 15:00
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the BALL 40
81.3%
-0.5
Q3 15:00
Kiael Kelly sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BALL 32
81.3%
0.0
Q3 11:49
Adam Saul punt for 36 yds , Jackson Harper returns for 8 yds to the CONN 40
81.6%
+0.3
CONN · Drive 12TD · 15 plays · 60 yds
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds to the CONN 48
84.7%
+3.1
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Cam Edwards
84.9%
+0.2
Q3 11:49
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST down
84.8%
-0.1
Q3 11:49
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the BALL 47
85.0%
+0.3
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Chris Parker
85.0%
0.0
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 4 yds to the BALL 43
84.9%
-0.1
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down
84.7%
-0.2
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BALL 34
85.2%
+0.5
Q3 11:49
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the BALL 34
85.2%
0.0
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Reymello Murphy
85.1%
-0.1
Q3 11:49
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 33 yds to the BALL 1 for a 1ST down
84.7%
-0.4
Q3 11:49
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the BALL 1
85.2%
+0.5
Q3 11:49
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the BALL 3
85.2%
0.0
Q3 11:49
No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe pass incomplete short right to Porter,Shamar thrown to BallSt00 broken up by Whitner,Ashton PENALTY BallSt Roughing The Passer (Beebe,Jack) 2 yards from BallSt03 to BallSt01, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
85.1%
-0.1
Q3 6:04
Terrence Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
96.5%
+11.3
BALL · Drive 13FG · 12 plays · 69 yds
Q3 6:04
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.4%
-0.1
Q3 6:04
Kiael Kelly sacked by Malachi McLean for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 20
93.7%
-2.7
Q3 6:04
Eric Weatherly run for 22 yds to the BALL 42 for a 1ST down
93.7%
0.0
Q3 6:04
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 7 yds to the BALL 49
93.7%
0.0
Q3 6:04
Qua Ashley run for 14 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST down
93.6%
-0.1
Q3 6:04
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Ty Robinson
93.3%
-0.2
Q3 3:14
TJ Horton run for 12 yds Ball State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the CONN 35
92.6%
-0.7
Q3 3:14
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 22 yds to the CONN 13 for a 1ST down
92.4%
-0.2
Q3 3:14
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 7 yds to the CONN 6
92.4%
0.0
Q3 3:14
TJ Horton run for 2 yds to the CONN 4
92.4%
0.0
Q3 3:14
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 6
92.4%
0.0
Q3 0:37
Carson Holmer 23 yd FG GOOD
87.7%
-4.7
CONN · Drive 14TD · 13 plays · 67 yds
Q3 0:33
DC Pippin kickoff for 46 yds , Jackson Harper return for 14 yds to the CONN 33
88.4%
+0.7
Q3 0:33
No Huddle-Shotgun Lundberg Coleman,Oliver rush right for 5 yards gain to the UConn38 (Chea,Alfred; Glenn,Ameir) PENALTY UConn Holding (Wayburn,Brady) 10 yards from UConn33 to UConn23. NO PLAY.
91.0%
+2.6
Q3 0:00
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the CONN 27
91.7%
+0.7
Q4 15:00
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 29
91.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 19 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST down
91.7%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the BALL 46
91.8%
+0.1
Q4 15:00
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the BALL 45
91.8%
0.0
Q4 12:29
Timeout UConn, clock 12:29
92.2%
+0.3
Q4 12:29
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST down
92.2%
0.0
Q4 12:29
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Alex Honig
92.4%
+0.2
Q4 12:29
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the BALL 37
92.4%
0.0
Q4 12:29
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the BALL 32
92.3%
-0.1
Q4 10:24
Cam Edwards run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
98.9%
+6.6
BALL · Drive 15INT · 4 plays · 19 yds
Q4 10:24
Chris Freeman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.9%
0.0
Q4 10:24
TJ Horton run for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down
97.4%
-1.5
Q4 10:24
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 6 yds to the BALL 44
97.4%
0.0
Q4 9:06
Kiael Kelly pass intercepted Lee Molette III return for no gain to the CONN 42
97.2%
-0.2
CONN · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds
Q4 9:06
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the CONN 46
99.0%
+1.8
Q4 9:06
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 48
99.0%
0.0
Q4 7:31
No Huddle Edwards,Cam rush right for 52 yards gain to the BallSt00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:31 PENALTY UConn Holding declined UConn Holding (Wayburn,Brady) 10 yards from UConn48 to UConn38. NO PLAY.
99.0%
0.0
Q4 7:31
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 5 yds to the CONN 43
99.0%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Connor Stutz punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 35
99.1%
+0.1
BALL · Drive 17TD · 9 plays · 65 yds
Q4 6:38
Qua Ashley run for 13 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST down
97.6%
-1.6
Q4 6:38
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 18 yds to the CONN 34 for a 1ST down
97.6%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Qua Ashley run for 3 yds to the CONN 31
97.5%
-0.1
Q4 6:38
Qua Ashley run for 2 yds to the CONN 29
97.5%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Kiael Kelly pass incomplete to Eric Weatherly
97.5%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Eric Weatherly for 28 yds to the CONN 1 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Kiael Kelly run for no gain to the CONN 1
97.5%
0.0
Q4 3:39
Timeout UConn, clock 03:39
97.7%
+0.2
Q4 3:28
Qua Ashley run for 1 yd for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)
90.5%
-7.2
CONN · Drive 18TD · 5 plays · 68 yds
Q4 3:25
DC Pippin kickoff for 50 yds , Jackson Harper return for 17 yds to the CONN 32
91.6%
+1.1
Q4 3:25
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the CONN 35
93.5%
+1.9
Q4 3:25
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 33
93.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout UConn, clock 02:00
94.2%
+0.7
Q4 1:50
Cam Edwards run for 67 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
99.2%
+5.0
BALL · Drive 19TD · 8 plays · 65 yds
Q4 1:39
Chris Freeman kickoff for 54 yds , Eric Weatherly return for 24 yds to the BALL 35
99.2%
0.0
Q4 1:39
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Donovan Hamilton for 12 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST down
97.9%
-1.4
Q4 1:39
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Koby Gross for 6 yds to the CONN 47
97.9%
0.0
Q4 1:39
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qua Ashley for 3 yds to the CONN 44
97.9%
0.0
Q4 1:39
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 6 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down
97.9%
0.0
Q4 1:39
Kiael Kelly run for 27 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST down
97.7%
-0.1
Q4 0:09
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Dahya Patel for 11 yds for a TD (Koby Gross pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
88.3%
-6.5
Q4 0:09
Timeout UConn, clock 00:09
97.7%
+9.5
CONN · Drive 20END OF GAME · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q4 0:11
Carson Holmer kickoff for 17 yds
89.9%
-7.9
Q4 0:11
Kneel down by UConn at UConn44 for loss of 4 yards.
94.8%
+5.0
Q4 0:05
Timeout UConn, clock 00:05
94.8%
-2.9
Q4 0:05
Ball State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BALL 44 for a 1ST down
94.8%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Kneel down by UConn at BallSt46 for loss of 2 yards.
94.8%
-0.1
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:04
Terrence Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+11.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:09
Timeout UConn, clock 00:09
+9.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:11
Carson Holmer kickoff for 17 yds
-7.9