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Win probability · DEL
modelDEL aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playDEL scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Nick Minicucci 13 Yd Run
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:05: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +16.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Jo Silver run for 18 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK) — DEL win probability +24.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:54: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +24.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Nate Reed 43 Yd Field Goal — DEL win probability +39.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Nick Minicucci 13 Yd Run — DEL win probability +22.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DEL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:47CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snapGo for it69.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.8%average punt
- Q1 4:48CONN 4th & 6 at DEL 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snapGo for it62.4%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call62.4%88% to makePunt60.9%−1.5average punt
- Q2 8:40DEL 4th & 7 at DEL 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q2 3:53CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snapGo for it53.9%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q2 3:53DEL 4th & 1 at DEL 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.4%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:15DEL 4th & 3 at DEL 38, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snapGo for it47.0%−0.452% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q3 11:01DEL 4th & 4 at CONN 44, up 4Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it56.0%48% to convertField goal53.5%−2.427% to makePuntTheir call55.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 9:21CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 10, down 4Close callPunted · 42.8% before the snapGo for it43.4%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:52DEL 4th & 10 at DEL 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it54.8%−1.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q3 5:05DEL 4th & 5 at CONN 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.3%42% to convertField goal41.0%−1.442% to makePunt40.2%−2.2average punt
- Q4 9:54CONN 4th & 1 at DEL 1, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.7%59% to convertField goal34.9%−7.994% to makePunt20.3%−22.4average punt
- Q4 6:50DEL 4th & 6 at CONN 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snapGo for it36.7%−2.040% to convertField goalTheir call38.8%56% to makePunt31.4%−7.4average punt
- Q4 2:10CONN 4th & 2 at DEL 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%57% to convertField goal76.4%−2.670% to makePunt58.3%−20.7average punt
- Q4 2:10DEL 4th & 1 at CONN 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.2%71% to convertField goal33.7%−1.549% to makePunt21.1%−14.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DEL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:13DEL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.5%97% to makeGo for two32.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:48CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:06DEL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.9%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:54DEL Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:08CONN Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.5%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:17CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.8%97% to makeGo for two63.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:55DEL Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.1%97% to makeGo for two45.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:05CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:00DEL Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.5%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:54CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two58.5%−1.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1376% → 75%
Q1 13:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
25.2%
Connor Stutz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyre Duplessis at the DEL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 2TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3425% → 28%
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-8
25.1%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 8 yards to the DEL 21Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+32
25.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 32 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
25.3%
Nick Minicucci pass incomplete to Sean Wilson for a 1ST down UConn Penalty, (15 Yards) to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2573% → 73%
DELDrive 4TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4228% → 30%
CONNDrive 5FG10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1870% → 69%
DELDrive 6TD12 plays · 79 yds · 6:4731% → 44%
CONNDrive 7TD8 plays · 73 yds · 2:3758% → 65%
DELDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2237% → 38%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
37.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 11 yds to the DEL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9TD7 plays · 83 yds · 1:2362% → 71%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
38.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 14 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
37.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Nader Chirchi for 23 yds to the DEL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+15
36.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Mel Brown for 15 yds to the DEL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
35.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 29 yds to the DEL 2 for a 1ST down Delaware Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 10TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2232% → 41%
CONNDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5659% → 58%
DELDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3843% → 44%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
42.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 7 yds to the DEL 24Similar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
43.1%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 1 yard to the DEL 30Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+6
42.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 6 yds to the DEL 36Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+2
42.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 2 yds to the DEL 38Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
44.3%
Brenden Lach punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jackson Harper at the CONN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1557% → 56%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the CONN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 3:5946% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.1%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 6 yds to the DEL 31Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 4 yds to the DEL 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
48.3%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Ja'Carree Kelly for 2 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+4
47.5%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Connor Witthoft for 4 yds to the CONN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4051% → 46%
Q3 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-4
50.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fagnano,Joe rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CONN16, End Of Play PENALTY CONN Holding (Green,Tank) 4 yards from CONN08 to CONN04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+6
50.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the CONN 10Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
54.0%
Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyre Duplessis at the DEL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2957% → 53%
Q3 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-3
55.0%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 3 yards to the DEL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17TD8 plays · 79 yds · 2:4748% → 72%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
52.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 8 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
51.9%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for a 1ST down Delaware Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Crenshaw Jr.) to the DEL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
47.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 13 yds to the DEL 35 for a 1ST down Delaware Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Dillon Trainer) to the DEL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
45.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rosa,Victor rush left for 20 yards loss to the DEL40 fumbled by Rosa,Victor at DEL29 forced by Cox Jr.,Kshawn recovered by DEL Mulumba,Marje at DEL40 Mulumba,Marje return 28 yards to the CONN32 (Fagnano,Joe) PENALTY DEL Holding 10 yards from DEL20 to DEL10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
28.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 18TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0536% → 67%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 8 yds to the DEL 33Similar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
41.1%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Tyquan King for a loss of 8 yards to the CONN 49Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+8
38.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 8 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
42.5%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 10 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0642% → 72%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
57.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to John Neider for 9 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
54.9%
PENALTY CONN False Start (Murawski,Ben) 5 yards from CONN41 to CONN36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+12
58.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 12 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+15
53.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 15 yds to the DEL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
52.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 27 yds to the DEL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 20MISSED FG11 plays · 45 yds · 3:0435% → 36%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 8 yds to the DEL 33Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 18
OWN 44
+22
35.6%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 22 yds to the CONN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
42.8%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Sean Wilson for 9 yds to the CONN 25Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
42.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short right to Sessoms,Elijah thrown to CONN10 broken up by Brinson,D'Mon PENALTY DEL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Rosahac,Noah) 5 yards from CONN25 to CONN30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 48 yds · 4:4073% → 83%
DELDrive 22FG13 plays · 52 yds · 2:1031% → 63%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
31.0%
Nick Minicucci sacked by Bryun Parham for a loss of 9 yards to the DEL 13Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+9
27.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Minicucci,Nick pass incomplete short left to Kelly,Ja'Carree thrown to DEL29 PENALTY CONN Pass Interference (Chadwick,Cam) 9 yards from DEL23 to DEL32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
32.0%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 26 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
37.7%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Jo Silver for 3 yds to the CONN 45Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+12
33.4%
Nick Minicucci pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 12 yds to the CONN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 24TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Nate Reed 43 Yd Field Goal
+39.1
TD · Q3 0:00
Jo Silver run for 18 yds for a TD (Nate Reed KICK)
+24.4
TD · Q4 9:54
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
-24.2