Try the model
NAVY

Navy 10 at Notre Dame 49

ND
2025 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:02: (11:08) #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:02 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +2.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:57: (05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:57 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +2.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:42: (01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at NAV05, for 5 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:42 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:27: (13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:27: (11:34) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #11 K.Smith caught at NAV00, for 34 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:37NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:48NAVY 4th & 12 at ND 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:21ND 4th & 5 at ND 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:30ND 4th & 1 at NAVY 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:25NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:15NAVY 4th & 11 at ND 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:34NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48NAVY 4th & 22 at NAVY 13, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:40NAVY 4th & 9 at ND 48, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:27ND 4th & 3 at ND 46, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:47NAVY 4th & 8 at ND 49, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:31ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:02NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:57ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:42ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:27ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:27ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:27ND Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:27ND Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:153% → 4%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
(14:57) #46 A.Tecza rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV28 (#4 J.Ausberry; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
96.9%
(14:25) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 9 yards gain to the NAV37 (#0 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.8%
(13:47) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush left for 0 yards to the NAV37 (#4 J.Ausberry; #40 J.Burnham)Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
96.7%
(13:07) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 3 yards gain to the NAV40 (#34 D.Bowen; #3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
96.6%
(12:27) Shotgun #37 S.Reynolds rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV42 (#44 J.Tuihalamaka)Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
96.5%
(11:45) #15 J.Carlson punt 52 yards to the UND06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 4:0097% → 96%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
96.5%
(11:37) Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 0 yards to the UND06 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
96.4%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 0 yards to the UND06 (#14 J.Campbell)Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+27
96.2%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #4 J.Love caught at UND10, for 27 yards to the UND33 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+52
96.1%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #0 M.Fields caught at NAV24, for 52 yards to the NAV15 (#3 I.Oniha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
96.1%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NAV04 (#56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.0%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV01 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.3%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:31 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:364% → 5%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.1%
(07:29) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NAV32 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
96.0%
(06:53) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV34 (#9 T.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.9%
(06:16) #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV36 (#19 M.Faraimo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.8%
(05:38) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 8 yards gain to the NAV44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
95.6%
PENALTY NAV False Start (#68 B.Purvis) 5 yards from NAV44 to NAV39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
95.6%
(04:33) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush left for 10 yards gain to the NAV49 (#0 D.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
95.4%
(03:53) #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UND40, out of bounds at UND40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
95.3%
(03:16) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 2 yards gain to the UND38 (#0 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
95.1%
(02:38) #5 B.Woodson rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND37 (#9 T.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
95.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to UND31Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+5
95.2%
PENALTY NAV False Start (#22 E.Heidenreich) 5 yards from UND37 to UND42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
95.3%
(01:53) #15 J.Carlson punt 42 yards to the UND00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1795% → 95%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
95.3%
(01:48) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 W.Pauling caught at UND19, for 2 yards to the UND22 (#96 L.Robinson; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
95.2%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND25 (#90 J.Moutome)Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
95.1%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #2 W.Pauling thrown to NAV40Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
95.0%
(00:32) #16 J.Rendell punt 28 yards to the NAV47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:195% → 9%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
94.9%
(00:21) #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UND49 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
94.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #22 E.Heidenreich rush right for 15 yards gain to the UND34 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
94.4%
(14:21) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 6 yards gain to the UND28 (#9 T.Johnson)Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+13
94.3%
(13:45) #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UND15 (#15 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
94.1%
(13:03) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UND14 (#4 J.Ausberry; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+11
93.9%
(12:24) #86 J.Guerin rush right for 11 yards gain to the UND03 (#8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
93.8%
(11:47) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UND02 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa; #0 D.Smith)Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
(11:08) #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:02 #17 N.Kirkwood kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:5393% → 94%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
92.8%
(10:59) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #0 M.Fields caught at UND40, for 20 yards to the UND49 (#17 J.Ross; #14 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
93.0%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #0 M.Fields caught at NAV42, for 13 yards to the NAV38 (#17 J.Ross), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
93.0%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush right for 6 yards gain to the NAV32 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+12
92.9%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #0 M.Fields caught at NAV20, for 12 yards to the NAV20 (#49 A.Klenk), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
92.8%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NAV13 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
92.6%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAV11 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
92.1%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV11 (#0 K.McShan; #94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+9
91.5%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at NAV06, for 9 yards to the NAV02 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.3%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:57 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:257% → 6%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.5%
(05:57) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 1 yard loss to the NAV24 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
93.4%
(05:18) #5 B.Woodson rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAV26 (#15 L.Moore; #4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.4%
(04:35) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete deep right to #89 L.Hutchison thrown to UND43Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.6%
(04:31) #15 J.Carlson punt 42 yards to the UND32 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:3193% → 96%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
93.4%
(04:25) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND29, for 3 yards loss to the UND29 (#3 I.Oniha)Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+6
93.1%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 6 yards gain to the UND35 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+16
92.9%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 16 yards gain to the NAV49 (#14 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
93.4%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #0 M.Fields thrown to NAV05 PENALTY NAV Pass Interference (#17 J.Ross) 15 yards from NAV49 to NAV34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.6%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV32 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
93.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #0 M.Fields thrown to NAV26Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+27
93.2%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 W.Pauling caught at NAV24, for 27 yards to the NAV05 (#58 C.Cauley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.0%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at NAV05, for 5 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:42 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 1:215% → 6%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
(01:40) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich thrown to NAV39Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+41
95.2%
(01:34) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 41 yards gain to the UND34 (#9 T.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.3%
(01:08) #5 B.Woodson rush right for 0 yards to the UND34, out of bounds at UND34Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
94.0%
(01:02) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass complete short left to #46 A.Tecza caught at UND37, for 2 yards to the UND32 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+17
94.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass complete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at UND17, for 17 yards to the UND15 (#24 M.Zackery IV), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
93.8%
(00:50) No Huddle #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND13 (#93 J.Dawson)Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
94.0%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Woodson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UND16 (#44 J.Tuihalamaka)Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
94.5%
(00:22) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete short left to #89 L.Hutchison thrown to UND12 broken up by #40 J.Burnham QB hurried by #40 J.BurnhamSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
94.3%
(00:17) #17 N.Kirkwood field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #15 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 00:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
94.8%
(00:08) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at UND37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2594% → 97%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.1%
(14:58) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #0 M.Fields thrown to NAV24 broken up by #17 J.RossSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.1%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND36 (#14 J.Campbell)Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+16
93.8%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND41, for 16 yards to the NAV48 (#18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
97.2%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:474% → 4%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.2%
(13:27) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV28 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.1%
(12:48) Shotgun #46 A.Tecza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV30 (#56 E.Hughes)Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
96.2%
(12:10) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass complete short right to #22 E.Heidenreich caught at NAV33, for 3 yards to the NAV33, out of bounds at NAV33Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
96.2%
(11:38) #5 B.Woodson rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAV34 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa; #19 M.Faraimo), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.1%
(11:34) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #11 K.Smith caught at NAV00, for 34 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 1 yard loss to the NAV24 (#12 J.Botelho; #88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-11
99.0%
(10:45) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson sacked for loss of 11 yards to the NAV13 (#4 J.Ausberry), fumble by #5 B.Woodson recovered by NAV #46 A.Tecza at NAV13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
98.7%
(09:58) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete deep left to #24 B.Chatman thrown to NAV33Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
98.7%
(09:52) #15 J.Carlson punt 36 yards to the NAV49 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at NAV49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:1699% → 100%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.2%
(09:46) Shotgun #24 J.Price rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAV47 (#96 L.Robinson; #49 A.Klenk)Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
99.3%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV43 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
99.2%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NAV33 (#16 G.Sessi; #17 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.2%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #5 C.Williams thrown to NAV02 PENALTY NAV Pass Interference (#17 J.Ross) 15 yards from NAV33 to NAV18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
99.2%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush right for 12 yards gain to the NAV06 (#10 N.Bell; #18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.2%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV04 (#14 J.Campbell; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #7 T.Washington caught at NAV03, for 4 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:27 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:391% → 0%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
(06:25) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NAV33 (#47 J.Onye; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.2%
(05:54) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the NAV37 (#93 J.Dawson; #4 J.Ausberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.3%
(05:19) #37 S.Reynolds rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV40 (#0 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
99.3%
(04:43) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV43 (#12 J.Botelho; #19 M.Faraimo)Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
99.6%
(04:03) #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 8 yards gain to the UND49 (#95 B.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
99.8%
(03:19) Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 2 yards loss to the NAV49 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
(02:35) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND48 (#47 J.Onye; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
99.8%
(01:52) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #87 T.Elwell thrown to UND45 broken up by #27 K.Viliamu-AsaSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
99.8%
(01:49) #15 J.Carlson punt 41 yards to the UND07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.8%
(01:40) Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 1 yard gain to the UND08 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
99.8%
(01:00) Shotgun #4 J.Love rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND10 (#2 M.Williams; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+13
99.8%
(00:18) Shotgun #8 K.Minchey rush right for 13 yards gain to the UND23 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND24 (#96 L.Robinson)Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+15
99.8%
(14:19) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UND39 (#17 J.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND41 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Minchey pass complete short right to #11 K.Smith caught at UND46, for 5 yards to the UND46, out of bounds at UND46Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the UND46 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 54 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:330% → 0%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #37 S.Reynolds rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV28 (#56 E.Hughes; #19 M.Faraimo)Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
99.9%
(10:47) #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 11 yards gain to the NAV39 (#28 L.Talich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
(10:16) #40 V.Listorti rush right for 9 yards gain to the NAV48 (#43 K.Kia; #14 D.Golden)Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
(09:36) #40 V.Listorti rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAV49 (#14 D.Golden; #7 J.Stroman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(08:56) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #24 B.Chatman thrown to UND34 broken up by #7 J.StromanSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(08:47) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV49 (#56 E.Hughes)Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
(08:04) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 10 yards gain to the UND41 (#19 M.Faraimo; #88 A.Mukam) PENALTY NAV Illegal Shift 5 yards from NAV49 to NAV44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
(07:23) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UND49 (#7 J.Stroman)Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
99.9%
(06:55) #15 J.Carlson punt 49 yards to the UND00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19END OF GAME
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:02100% → 100%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
(06:47) Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND23 (#90 J.Moutome; #49 A.Klenk)Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND26 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #15 J.Bettis Jr. caught at UND32, for 6 yards to the UND32 (#28 B.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush left for 6 yards gain to the UND38 (#53 M.Bleazard; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+24
99.9%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Minchey pass complete short left to #85 J.Larsen caught at NAV44, for 24 yards to the NAV38 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NAV26 (#14 J.Campbell; #49 A.Klenk), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
100.0%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NAV27 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Payne rush right for 3 yards gain to the NAV24 (#16 G.Sessi; #64 C.Herock)Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+12
100.0%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Minchey pass incomplete short middle to #3 G.Payne thrown to NAV20 PENALTY NAV Roughing The Passer (#14 J.Campbell) 12 yards from NAV24 to NAV12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
100.0%
(01:08) Kneel down by #8 K.Minchey at NAV13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-1
100.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by #8 K.Minchey at NAV14 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:27
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Love rush right for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:27, 1ST DOWN #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+3.4
TD · Q2 5:57
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Price rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:57 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+2.8
TD · Q2 1:42
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at NAV05, for 5 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:42 #18 E.Schmidt kick attempt good (H: #10 T.Buchner, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com