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BOIS

Boise State 7 at Notre Dame 28

ND
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:26 · Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Luke Voorhees
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense+30.8Score differential+24.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:47: CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 19 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt PAT BLOCKED) — ND win probability +1.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:03: Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Pauling pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — ND win probability +9.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:49: CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds for a TD (Marcello Diomede KICK) — ND win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:49: Timeout Notre Dame, clock 05:49 — BOIS win probability +1.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:07ND 4th & 1 at BOIS 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:03BOIS 4th & 23 at BOIS 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09ND 4th & 11 at ND 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:36BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27ND 4th & 8 at BOIS 28, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27ND 4th & 8 at BOIS 28, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:20BOIS 4th & 11 at ND 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:16ND 4th & 7 at BOIS 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:37BOIS 4th & 2 at ND 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:37BOIS 4th & 2 at ND 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:07BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:26BOIS 4th & 10 at ND 34, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:57ND 4th & 14 at ND 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:57ND 4th & 14 at ND 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:47ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03BOIS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:48ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:49ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:54ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4792% → 90%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 9 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
91.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 10 yds to the ND 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
91.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 41Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+3
91.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the ND 44 Jeremiyah Love fumbled, recovered by ND Jeremiyah LoveSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+24
90.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 24 yds to the BOIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
90.9%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 24 yds to the BOIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
90.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
90.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
90.6%
PENALTY UND False Start (Schrauth,Billy) 5 yards from BSU01 to BSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
90.5%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 5 yds to the BOIS 1Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
90.2%
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:4510% → 11%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
90.1%
PENALTY BSU Illegal Snap (Holmes,Zach) 1 yard from BSU02 to BSU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
90.1%
Maddux Madsen run for 2 yds to the BOIS 3Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
90.0%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 5Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+10
89.9%
(08:50) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short right to Caples,Latrell thrown to BSU15 broken up by Fields,Malachi PENALTY UND Holding (Smith,DeVonta) 10 yards from BSU05 to BSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
89.7%
(08:45) Shotgun Gaines,Sire rush left for 6 yards gain to the BSU21 (Smith,DeVonta) PENALTY BSU Holding (Holmes,Zach) 7 yards from BSU15 to BSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+1
89.6%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd to the BOIS 9Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+5
89.5%
PENALTY UND Offside (Tuihalamaka,Junior) 5 yards from BSU09 to BSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
89.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
89.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
89.4%
Oscar Doyle punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:1989% → 90%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
89.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Eli Raridon for 3 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+36
89.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 36 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
89.3%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
89.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
89.0%
Jadarian Price run for 4 yds to the BOIS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
90.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Will Pauling for 19 yds for a TD (Erik Schmidt PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 4:3511% → 11%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 3 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
89.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 8 yds to the BOIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.9%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
88.8%
Sire Gaines run for 9 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
88.4%
(02:08) Shotgun Gaines,Sire rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU49 (Viliamu-Asa,Kyngstonn) PENALTY BSU Holding (Metoyer,Daylon) 10 yards from BSU47 to BSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 20
OWN 37
-5
88.8%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Penry,Chase) 5 yards from BSU37 to BSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 25
OWN 32
+10
88.7%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 10 yds to the BOIS 42Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-8
88.6%
Maddux Madsen sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the BOIS 34Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 23
OWN 34
+23
88.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ND 42 , Jordan Faison returns for 23 yds to the ND 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5189% → 88%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
88.8%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Jordan FaisonSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
88.5%
CJ Carr run for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 37Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-5
88.0%
PENALTY UND False Start (Lambert,Guerby) 5 yards from UND37 to UND32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+9
88.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the ND 41Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
87.6%
James Rendell punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOIS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2912% → 12%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
88.2%
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the BOIS 16Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+4
88.1%
Sire Gaines run for 4 yds to the BOIS 20Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
88.3%
Oscar Doyle punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5689% → 88%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
88.6%
CJ Carr run for 28 yds to the BOIS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the BOIS 30Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
88.7%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+2
88.4%
CJ Carr run for 2 yds to the BOIS 28Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
87.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
87.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:1712% → 23%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
87.7%
Cameron Bates run for 7 yds to the BOIS 35Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
87.3%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
87.6%
Dylan Riley run for 2 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the BOIS 39Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
87.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Latrell CaplesSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
88.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 13 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+38
86.9%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 28 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Tae Johnson) to the ND 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
86.0%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the ND 6Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
85.7%
Sire Gaines run for 5 yds to the ND 1Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.4%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0678% → 88%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
77.7%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 22 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
78.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 14 yds to the BOIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
78.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 11 yds to the BOIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
79.1%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the BOIS 23Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
79.9%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+7
78.7%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the BOIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
79.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 8 yds to the BOIS 8Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
79.4%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short right to Pauling,Will thrown to BSU02 PENALTY BSU Holding (Banks,Davon) 4 yards from BSU08 to BSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.3%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.4%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Pauling pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:3111% → 14%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.7%
Dylan Riley run for 20 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Chris MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
88.1%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 8 yds to the ND 47Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
87.4%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd to the ND 46 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-27
86.2%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tae Johnson return for 27 yds to the ND 4 Notre Dame Penalty, Illegal Block (Cam Williams) to the ND 35Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-47
86.2%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tae Johnson return for 37 yds to the ND 0 Notre Dame Penalty, Illegal Block (Cam Williams) to the ND 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.8%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3014% → 14%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
Cameron Bates run for 10 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Dylan Riley run for no gain to the BOIS 35Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.8%
Maddux Madsen run for 4 yds to the BOIS 39Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
85.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 8 yds to the BOIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
84.2%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 28 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST down Boise State Penalty, Personal Foul (Latrell Caples) to the ND 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
83.8%
Dylan Riley run for 7 yds to the ND 33Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-8
82.3%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Jaylen Sneed for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 41Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
84.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
85.7%
Oscar Doyle punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:2485% → 93%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
85.3%
Jadarian Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 18Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+6
85.9%
Jadarian Price run for 6 yds to the ND 24Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+8
85.4%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 8 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
86.3%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 11 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
88.0%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+14
88.1%
Jadarian Price run for 14 yds to the BOIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.4%
CJ Carr pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
88.2%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 12 yds to the BOIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
88.5%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the BOIS 21Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.1%
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds for a TD (Marcello Diomede KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14INT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:579% → 9%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
91.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chase Penry for 7 yds to the BOIS 34Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
90.7%
Sire Gaines run for 1 yd to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the BOIS 37Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
91.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
91.0%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Luke Voorhees for 7 yds to the BOIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
90.8%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Leonard Moore return for 1 yd to the ND 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2497% → 98%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
96.9%
PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (Caples,Latrell) 15 yards from UND37 to BSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the BOIS 48Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
97.1%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass incomplete short left thrown to BSU47 QB hurried by Virgin-Morgan,Jayden PENALTY UND Holding (Knapp,Anthonie) 10 yards from BSU48 to UND42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 20
OWN 42
-15
96.9%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Carr,CJ pass complete short left to Raridon,Eli caught at BSU45, for 21 yards to the BSU37 (Washington,Zion), out of bounds PENALTY UND Pass Interference (Raridon,Eli) 15 yards from UND42 to UND27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 35
OWN 27
+10
97.6%
Jeremiyah Love run for 10 yds to the ND 37Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 25
OWN 37
+18
97.6%
CJ Carr pass complete to Jordan Faison for 18 yds to the BOIS 45Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
97.6%
James Rendell punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 32 yds · 5:327% → 7%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.1%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
92.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 11 yds to the BOIS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.5%
Sire Gaines run for 6 yds to the BOIS 41Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
92.2%
Sire Gaines run for 5 yds to the BOIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
92.5%
(11:49) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass complete deep right to Marshall,Chris caught at UND31, for 0 yards to the BSU46 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Marshall,Chris) 15 yards from BSU46 to BSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 25
OWN 31
-5
93.3%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Metoyer,Daylon) 5 yards from BSU31 to BSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 30
OWN 26
+3
93.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 3 yds to the BOIS 29Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 27
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Jaylen Sneed return for no gain to the BOIS 34Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 27
OWN 29
+15
93.9%
(10:24) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass intercepted by Sneed,Jaylen at BSU34, End Of Play PENALTY UND Roughing The Passer (Onye,Jason) 15 yards from BSU29 to BSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.9%
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the BOIS 46Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
92.8%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+6
92.9%
Maddux Madsen run for 6 yds to the ND 48Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
93.3%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Matt WagnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:3799% → 100%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.7%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the BOIS 49Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
99.7%
Jadarian Price run for 49 yds for a TD (Marcello Diomede KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18INT
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:171% → 1%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Matt Wagner for 2 yds to the BOIS 27Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.3%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 10 yds to the BOIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.4%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Ben Ford for 7 yds to the BOIS 44Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-10
99.4%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short right to Marshall,Chris thrown to UND40 broken up by Faraimo,Madden PENALTY BSU Holding (Holmes,Zach) 10 yards from BSU44 to BSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Qumonte Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+9
99.5%
Maddux Madsen run for 9 yds to the BOIS 43Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+11
99.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 11 yds Chris Marshall fumbled, recovered by BOIS Latrell Caples for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.5%
(05:52) Shotgun Madsen,Maddux pass incomplete short right to Wagner,Matt thrown to UND36, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UND Pass Interference (Talich,Luke) 12 yards from UND46 to UND34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
99.4%
Maddux Madsen sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 42Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 18
OPP 42
0
99.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Ben FordSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 18
OPP 42
-5
99.5%
PENALTY BSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UND42 to UND47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 23
OPP 47
+13
99.5%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 13 yds to the ND 34Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
99.5%
Maddux Madsen pass incomplete to Luke VoorheesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
99.8%
Jordan Faison run for a loss of 8 yards to the ND 19 Notre Dame Penalty, Faison,Jordan at UND16 Face Mask (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+4
99.8%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds to the ND 23Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
99.8%
CJ Carr pass incomplete to Micah GilbertSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
99.8%
James Rendell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 33Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
99.8%
James Rendell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Malik Sherrod at the BOIS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.6%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Metoyer,Daylon) 5 yards from BSU33 to BSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+10
99.6%
Maddux Madsen run for 10 yds to the BOIS 38Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
99.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 7 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 9 yds to the ND 46Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
99.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 11 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.6%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 9 yds to the ND 26Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-9
99.5%
Maddux Madsen sacked by Jaiden Ausberry for a loss of 9 yards to the ND 35Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-3
99.6%
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Leonard Moore return for 3 yds to the ND 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.8%
C. Carr takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Pauling pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
+9.1
TD · Q2 4:03
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 5:49
CJ Carr pass complete to Malachi Fields for 6 yds for a TD (Marcello Diomede KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com