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CIN

Cincinnati 23 at TCU 45

TCU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:44: (05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC00, for 17 yards to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:44, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) — TCU win probability +4.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:53: (01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #6 E.Pryor caught at TCU10, for 26 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +5.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:45: Jordan Dwyer 69 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick) — TCU win probability +5.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:27: (11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at TCU00, for 14 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +6.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:23: J. Payne run for 9 yds, for a TD (N. McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +9.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:14CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48TCU 4th & 1 at CIN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:59CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:12TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:21TCU 4th & 16 at CIN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:13CIN 4th & 7 at TCU 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:34CIN 4th & 19 at CIN 16, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:03TCU 4th & 4 at CIN 45, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:23CIN 4th & 5 at TCU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52TCU 4th & 11 at CIN 39, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:42CIN 4th & 22 at CIN 13, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:24TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 49, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:36TCU 4th & 1 at CIN 40, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:51TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:44TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:53CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:45TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:27CIN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:23TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3539% → 39%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.3%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #6 E.Pryor caught at UC25, for 1 yard to the UC26 (#2 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
61.3%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC30 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #95 M.Deal)Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
61.3%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at UC35, for 4 yards to the UC34 (#22 J.Lester)Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
61.3%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 0 yards to the UC34 (#2 J.Johnson; #0 Z.Chapman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1262% → 64%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
61.6%
(13:12) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC39, for 8 yards to the UC26 (#7 L.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+2
61.6%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 2 yards gain to the UC24 (#46 A.Peek Jr.; #11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.7%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to UC25Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-3
61.7%
(12:10) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UC27 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+12
61.4%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #0 D.Rogers caught at UC15, for 12 yards to the UC15 (#9 J.Sanks), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+11
61.5%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UC04 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
61.9%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the UC03 (#0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.7%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at UC00, for 3 yards to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:51 #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4637% → 36%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 0 yards to the UC25 (#11 D.Deal; #4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.2%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #4 C.Allen caught at UC28, for 3 yards to the UC28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
63.5%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #10 C.Goodie caught at UC36, for 6 yards to the UC34 (#1 A.Jordan; #22 J.Lester)Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
63.7%
(08:06) #31 M.Fletcher punt 47 yards to the TCU19 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:0564% → 69%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
63.8%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TCU33 (#36 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
64.0%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 5 yards gain to the TCU38 (#0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
64.6%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU39 (#4 M.Coleman; #2 D.Corleone)Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+44
64.6%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU39, for 44 yards to the UC17 (#5 C.Harrison), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
69.3%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC00, for 17 yards to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:44, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4232% → 37%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
67.7%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #8 N.Jennings caught at UC35, for 18 yards to the UC43 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
67.8%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 9 yards gain to the TCU48 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+9
67.5%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at TCU40, for 9 yards to the TCU39 (#7 C.Canada), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
67.9%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #0 I.Johnson caught at TCU42, for 0 yards to the TCU39 (#2 J.Johnson) PENALTY UC Holding (#11 J.Royer) 10 yards from TCU39 to TCU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+7
68.8%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 7 yards gain to the TCU42 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+9
69.1%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #11 J.Royer caught at TCU37, for 9 yards to the TCU33 (#22 J.Lester)Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
68.3%
(02:33) Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 7 yards gain to the TCU26 (#0 Z.Chapman; #3 K.Elarms-Orr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
63.1%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #6 E.Pryor caught at TCU10, for 26 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0266% → 72%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.6%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU28 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
65.7%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU31 (#31 S.Coleman; #55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
71.6%
Jordan Dwyer 69 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1230% → 36%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.3%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UC31 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
70.3%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #9 J.Caldwell caught at UC36, for 5 yards to the UC36, out of bounds at UC36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
70.4%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 8 yards gain to the UC44 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
70.0%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 7 yards gain to the TCU49 (#2 J.Johnson; #31 J.Simms), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
70.2%
PENALTY UC False Start (#56 D.Buford) 5 yards from TCU49 to UC46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+5
71.4%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC47 (#0 Z.Chapman) PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UC46 to TCU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
71.0%
(13:18) Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at TCU47, for 3 yards to the TCU46 (#2 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
71.1%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #9 J.Caldwell caught at TCU40, for 7 yards to the TCU39 (#20 J.McIver Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
71.2%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #87 G.Grover caught at TCU37, for 3 yards to the TCU36 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr) PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TCU39 to TCU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+20
70.5%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 20 yards gain to the TCU14 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
63.8%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at TCU00, for 14 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0467% → 66%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.3%
(11:27) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU29 (#31 S.Coleman; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
67.5%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU30 (#11 J.Golday; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
67.1%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right thrown to TCU37Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.3%
(10:20) #31 E.Craw punt 41 yards to the UC29 muffed by #29 M.Covey at UC29 recovered by TCU #37 H.Hooper at UC33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 17 yds · 4:4469% → 71%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
69.3%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at UC36, for 2 yards loss to the UC35 (#5 C.Harrison). #5 C.Harrison injured on the playSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+6
69.5%
(09:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #6 T.Battle caught at UC30, for 6 yards to the UC29 (#17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
69.3%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC24, for 6 yards to the UC23 (#9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
70.0%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC22 (#55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+11
71.0%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC16, for 11 yards to the UC11 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
71.2%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UC01 (#0 M.McDoom; #17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.4%
(07:06) No Huddle #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 0 yards to the UC01 (#2 D.Corleone)Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.7%
(06:20) #13 J.Denman rush left for 0 yards to the UC01 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.2%
(05:46) #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 0 yards to the UC01 (#49 J.Dingle). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+15
70.1%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#10 J.Hoover) 15 yards from UC01 to UC16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+32
70.7%
(05:23) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler), clock 05:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:5729% → 30%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
71.5%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #8 N.Jennings caught at UC34, for 24 yards to the UC49 (#33 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
70.1%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #10 C.Goodie caught at TCU25, for 40 yards to the TCU11 (#1 A.Jordan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
69.2%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU08 (#7 C.Canada)Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
69.3%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Jennings thrown to TCU00Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
71.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #4 C.Allen thrown to TCU00Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
69.9%
(03:13) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 03:13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4372% → 83%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.6%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU40, for 15 yards to the TCU40 (#0 M.McDoom), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
73.1%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU45 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
73.3%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UC49 (#36 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
72.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UC44 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
73.2%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC40 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
72.6%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC37 (#9 J.Sanks; #22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
73.4%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep middle to #1 E.McAlister caught at UC15, for 27 yards to the UC10 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
73.9%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC09 (#49 J.Dingle; #98 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
82.7%
J. Payne run for 9 yds, for a TD (N. McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:1219% → 19%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.6%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at UC33, for 9 yards to the UC34, out of bounds at UC34Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
78.6%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #11 J.Royer caught at UC44, for 10 yards to the UC44 (#1 A.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.3%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #8 N.Jennings thrown to TCU42 QB hurried by #92 A.Din-MbuhSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
80.6%
(00:05) Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right thrown to UC50 QB hurried by #11 D.DealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3682% → 94%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.3%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU33, for 8 yards to the TCU33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
82.6%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU36 (#49 J.Dingle; #55 I.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
80.7%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU43 (#36 X.Williams)Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
81.8%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at UC49, for 8 yards to the UC49 (#7 L.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
82.3%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 4 yards gain to the UC45 (#36 X.Williams; #7 L.Wilson)Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
82.6%
(11:50) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 11 yards gain to the UC34 (#7 L.Wilson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
94.1%
(11:08) Shotgun #14 J.Manjack IV sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UC44 (#44 M.Weedon) PENALTY TCU Intentional Grounding (#14 J.Manjack IV)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
PENALTY UC False Start (#77 T.Tyo) 5 yards from UC25 to UC20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
98.6%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 3 yards loss to the UC17 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
98.7%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #4 C.Allen thrown to UC20 broken up by #95 M.DealSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-1
98.7%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UC16 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+13
98.8%
(09:45) #31 M.Fletcher punt 48 yards to the TCU36 #7 J.Dwyer return 13 yards to the TCU49 (#48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush left for 0 yards to the TCU49, out of bounds at TCU49Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.7%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 6 yards gain to the UC45 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
98.8%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to UC35Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
98.7%
(08:15) #31 E.Craw punt 45 yards to the UC00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:261% → 1%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.0%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #3 T.Walker caught at UC22, for 2 yards to the UC22 (#22 J.Lester)Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+16
99.1%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #9 J.Caldwell caught at UC28, for 16 yards to the UC38 (#7 C.Canada; #3 K.Elarms-Orr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.1%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at UC39, for 6 yards to the UC44 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
99.1%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to TCU45 broken up by #26 V.GloverSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+26
99.1%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #11 J.Royer caught at TCU45, for 26 yards to the TCU30 (#11 D.Deal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep middle to #4 C.Allen thrown to TCU10Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.1%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #4 C.Allen thrown to TCU24Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.2%
(06:05) Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU25 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
98.9%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #6 E.Pryor thrown to TCU22 broken up by #2 J.Johnson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:1899% → 100%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.3%
(05:20) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU38, for 14 yards to the TCU39 (#0 M.McDoom), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.4%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 7 yards gain to the TCU46 (#10 T.Barnes; #8 O.Arnold), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
99.4%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU48 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.5%
(03:38) No Huddle #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU49 (#17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+13
99.5%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UC38 (#46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.6%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC35 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
99.6%
(01:29) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC34 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #11 J.Golday)Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
99.6%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 0 yards to the UC34 (#9 J.Sanks)Similar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+5
99.7%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#7 J.Dwyer) 5 yards from UC34 to UC39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
99.6%
(14:52) #31 E.Craw punt 33 yards to the UC06 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at UC06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
99.8%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at UC07, for 5 yards to the UC11 (#38 G.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+41
99.8%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 41 yards gain to the TCU48 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.8%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU44 (#11 D.Deal; #4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
99.8%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #10 C.Goodie thrown to TCU33 QB hurried by #3 K.Elarms-OrrSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+9
99.8%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 9 yards gain to the TCU35 (#97 P.Oyewale; #33 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.7%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep middle to #4 C.Allen caught at TCU10, for 35 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #2 B.Sorsby pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:11100% → 99%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 0 yards to the TCU25 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU31, for 7 yards to the TCU32 (#6 T.Gola-Callard), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU38, for 6 yards to the TCU38 (#10 T.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.8%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 11 yards gain to the TCU49 (#0 M.McDoom; #22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
99.1%
(10:36) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 51 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:28, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -52 yds · 1:481% → 1%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
(10:28) PENALTY UC False Start (#53 G.Gerhardt) 5 yards from UC25 to UC20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
98.6%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at UC13, for 4 yards to the UC24 (#7 C.Canada)Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
98.6%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UC22 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-9
98.7%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UC13 (#31 J.Simms)Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
98.8%
(08:52) #31 M.Fletcher punt 47 yards to the TCU40 PENALTY TCU Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21END OF HALF
15 plays · 30 yds · 8:0499% → 100%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.2%
(08:39) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU41, for 3 yards to the TCU43 (#39 C.Lewis)Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
99.3%
(07:59) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush right for 0 yards to the TCU43 (#25 D.James; #36 X.Williams)Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
99.3%
(07:19) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush left for 6 yards gain to the TCU49 (#20 C.Crite)Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.3%
(06:28) #21 N.Palmer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC49 (#22 J.Thompson; #39 C.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.4%
(05:53) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC45 (#39 C.Lewis; #98 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
99.5%
(05:09) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC42 (#36 X.Williams; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.5%
(04:23) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC40 (#16 J.White-McLain; #90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+7
99.5%
(03:40) #21 N.Palmer rush right for 7 yards gain to the UC33 (#36 X.Williams; #27 S.Clyne), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#1 E.McAlister) 15 yards from UC33 to UC48Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.6%
(03:20) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush right for 7 yards gain to the UC41 (#16 J.White-McLain; #25 D.James)Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
99.6%
(02:37) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush right for 7 yards gain to the UC34 (#49 J.Dingle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush middle for 0 yards to the UC34 (#99 R.Jackson)Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
(01:15) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush right for 0 yards to the UC34 (#27 S.Clyne)Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
(00:29) Shotgun #40 F.Estrada II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC30 (#20 C.Crite)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:23
J. Payne run for 9 yds, for a TD (N. McCashland KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 11:27
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at TCU00, for 14 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
-6.6
TD · Q1 0:45
Jordan Dwyer 69 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com