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COLO

Colorado 14 at Kansas State 24

KSU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · (01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter sacked for loss of 1 yard to the KSTATE43 (#52 R.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense+24.7Garbage-time factor+7.0Score differential+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: (00:20) Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #16 A.Mata kick attempt good (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins) — COLO win probability +7.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:32: (04:34) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson) — KSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:03: (07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:03 #16 A.Mata kick attempt good (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins) — COLO win probability +24.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:53: (07:02) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #4 J.Jackson caught at KSTATE23, for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE24 (#17 I.Hardge), out of bounds — KSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: (02:43) No Huddle #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson) — KSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:13KSU 4th & 5 at COLO 13, tied
    Close callWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:56COLO 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.2%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:58COLO 4th & 12 at KSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15COLO 4th & 3 at KSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:26KSU 4th & 1 at COLO 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−1.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:25COLO 4th & 1 at KSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−2.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:21KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:46COLO 4th & 2 at KSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:27KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 39, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:06COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:27KSU 4th & 1 at COLO 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−3.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:23KSU 4th & 6 at COLO 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:13COLO 4th & 6 at KSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:40KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:18COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:32KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:03COLO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:37KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 7:0489% → 88%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.0%
(14:52) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the KSTATE26 (#53 A.Walker)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
88.8%
(14:20) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#40 S.Myers)Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+11
88.6%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #12 J.Tibbs caught at KSTATE37, for 11 yards to the KSTATE39 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
88.5%
(13:07) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE38 (#7 T.Byard)Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+12
88.4%
(12:31) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 12 yards gain to the KSTATE50, out of bounds at KSTATE50, 1ST DOWN. #7 T.Byard injured on the playSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
50
+5
88.4%
PENALTY KSTATE False Start (#69 T.Poitier) 5 yards from KSTATE50 to KSTATE45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
88.2%
(11:49) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE46 (#92 A.Barnes Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+9
88.0%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short middle to #80 W.Anciaux caught at KSTATE50, for 9 yards to the CU45 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+27
88.0%
(10:31) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 27 yards gain to the CU18 (#4 P.Hodge), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.9%
(09:52) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU15 (#88 A.McNeill)Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
87.8%
(09:12) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #80 W.Anciaux thrown to CU00Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+2
87.6%
(09:07) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 2 yards gain to the CU13 (#3 T.Parks)Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+9
87.2%
(08:26) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #87 B.Loftin caught at CU09, for 9 yards to the CU04 (#4 P.Hodge), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.4%
(07:43) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:40 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 6:3112% → 13%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
88.0%
(07:39) Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the CU32 (#32 D.Purnell)Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
87.9%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CU38 (#7 V.Payne)Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
87.6%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush right for 4 yards gain to the CU42 (#56 D.Ilalio), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
87.6%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CU43 (#56 D.Ilalio)Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
87.5%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at CU50, for 7 yards to the CU50 (#3 G.Maldonado)Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 2
50
0
87.2%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 0 yards to the CU50 (#47 C.Stufflebean)Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 2
50
+1
87.3%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE49 (#3 G.Maldonado; #4 D.Cobbs) PENALTY KSTATE Face Mask (#32 D.Purnell) 15 yards from KSTATE49 to KSTATE34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
86.7%
(03:42) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush left for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE29 (#7 V.Payne; #28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
86.5%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush right for 10 yards gain to the KSTATE19 (#8 C.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
86.1%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE17 (#28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-4
86.0%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter sacked for loss of 4 yards to the KSTATE21 (#52 R.Davis)Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
86.4%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short middle to #4 O.Miller thrown to KSTATE04 broken up by #25 Z.Rich QB hurried by #8 C.ObiazorSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+39
87.0%
(00:58) #16 A.Mata field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD blocked by #6 Q.Moss (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins), clock 00:58 recovered by KSTATE #3 G.Maldonado at KSTATE24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0487% → 86%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
87.1%
(00:56) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE26 (#13 J.Slaughter)Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
87.0%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE29 (#4 P.Hodge; #13 J.Slaughter)Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
86.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #80 W.Anciaux thrown to KSTATE34 broken up by #40 S.MyersSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-3
86.4%
(14:55) #8 S.McClannan punt 42 yards to the CU29 #14 Q.Farrakhan Jr. return for loss of 3 yards to the CU26 (#28 R.Van Wyhe), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2013% → 15%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.6%
(14:45) Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 0 yards to the CU26 (#55 M.Alcorn-Crowder)Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
86.6%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at CU30, for 4 yards to the CU30 (#10 L.Bartley)Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+12
86.6%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #13 K.Mathis caught at CU38, for 12 yards to the CU42 (#4 D.Cobbs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.9%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the CU43 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
85.8%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the CU45 (#25 Z.Rich), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
85.8%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short middle to #15 Q.Gibson thrown to CU48 QB hurried by #8 C.Obiazor PENALTY KSTATE Roughing The Passer (#8 C.Obiazor) 15 yards from CU45 to KSTATE40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.2%
(11:42) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short right to #85 Z.Atkins thrown to KSTATE39Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
85.1%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush right for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE41 (#35 G.Powers), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+8
85.6%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 8 yards gain to the KSTATE33 (#25 Z.Rich)Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+2
85.5%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE31 (#32 D.Purnell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:3886% → 86%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
86.3%
(10:13) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 7 yards loss to the KSTATE25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE27 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+19
85.5%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #6 S.Lockett caught at KSTATE41, for 19 yards to the KSTATE46 (#17 I.Hardge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
87.2%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE48 (#88 A.McNeill)Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
87.1%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the KSTATE48 (#96 J.Oatis)Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+7
86.5%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #12 J.Tibbs caught at CU46, for 7 yards to the CU45 (#4 P.Hodge; #37 M.French)Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-2
86.2%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CU47 (#27 K.Wade), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6INT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3316% → 17%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.5%
(06:22) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush left for 0 yards to the CU47 (#52 R.Davis)Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
84.8%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short middle to #4 O.Miller thrown to KSTATE46Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.1%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush right for 9 yards gain to the KSTATE44 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+3
84.4%
(05:33) Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush right for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE41 (#52 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
83.5%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #85 Z.Atkins caught at KSTATE39, for 3 yards to the KSTATE38 (#3 G.Maldonado)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
83.4%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush left for 0 yards to the KSTATE38 (#32 D.Purnell)Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-1
83.5%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass intercepted by #9 D.McIntosh at KSTATE15 #9 D.McIntosh return 1 yard to the KSTATE16 (#9 S.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1785% → 84%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
85.3%
(03:44) Shotgun #22 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KSTATE14 (#44 L.Merritt)Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+8
85.0%
(03:10) Shotgun #22 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the KSTATE22 (#4 P.Hodge)Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
84.4%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #87 B.Loftin thrown to KSTATE31 QB hurried by #44 L.MerrittSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
83.8%
(02:28) #8 S.McClannan punt 62 yards to the CU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 1:4816% → 26%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
84.5%
(02:21) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 24 yards gain to the CU40 (#4 D.Cobbs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
84.3%
(01:57) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush left for 14 yards gain to the KSTATE46 (#32 D.Purnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.3%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short right thrown to KSTATE31Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
83.5%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at KSTATE39, for 9 yards to the KSTATE37 (#0 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+5
82.8%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE32 (#3 G.Maldonado), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
83.0%
(01:12) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE30 (#32 D.Purnell)Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-9
82.6%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter sacked for loss of 9 yards to the KSTATE39 (#32 D.Purnell)Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+38
85.9%
(00:41) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at KSTATE39, for 38 yards to the KSTATE01 (#4 D.Cobbs), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:41) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #4 O.Miller caught at KSTATE39, for 37 yards to the KSTATE02 (#4 D.Cobbs), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
83.0%
(00:31) Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush right for 5 yards loss to the KSTATE06 (#32 D.Purnell), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
81.6%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #13 K.Mathis caught at KSTATE01, for 5 yards to the KSTATE01 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:18 #16 A.Mata kick attempt good (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
79.0%
(00:11) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE36 (#53 A.Walker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5926% → 29%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
74.4%
(14:53) Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CU26 (#52 R.Davis)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+23
74.6%
(14:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush right for 23 yards gain to the CU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
71.8%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush right for 1 yard gain to the CU50 (#3 G.Maldonado)Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 9
50
+10
71.1%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 10 yards gain to the KSTATE40 (#7 V.Payne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
70.5%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #85 Z.Atkins caught at KSTATE43, for 6 yards to the KSTATE34 (#32 D.Purnell)Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
69.3%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE33 (#6 Q.Moss)Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
69.8%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE32 (#99 U.Seumalo)Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
71.3%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE31 (#99 U.Seumalo), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1175% → 74%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
75.2%
(10:46) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KSTATE37 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
76.4%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to KSTATE50Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+2
75.1%
(10:09) Shotgun #13 B.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE39 (#40 S.Myers)Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
73.8%
(09:39) #8 S.McClannan punt 50 yards to the CU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5528% → 27%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
71.8%
(09:24) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU14 (#23 A.Newsom)Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-1
71.6%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CU13 (#6 Q.Moss; #28 R.Van Wyhe)Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+4
72.3%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush left for 4 yards gain to the CU17 (#47 C.Stufflebean)Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
72.9%
(07:32) #35 D.Greaves punt 39 yards to the KSTATE44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3775% → 88%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
75.4%
(07:21) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #83 W.Swanson caught at KSTATE46, for 17 yards to the CU39 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
76.1%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU36 (#29 I.Yates)Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
75.9%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 7 yards gain to the CU29 (#27 K.Wade), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
76.4%
(05:45) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #12 J.Tibbs caught at CU12, for 21 yards to the CU08 (#17 I.Hardge), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
75.8%
(05:00) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 7 yards gain to the CU01 (#4 P.Hodge). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:00) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 8 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:50)Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
(04:34) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0717% → 18%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.7%
(04:26) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #4 O.Miller caught at CU28, for 3 yards to the CU31 (#35 G.Powers)Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+10
82.3%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short right to #9 S.Brown caught at CU41, for 10 yards to the CU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
81.5%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush left for 4 yards gain to the CU45 (#8 C.Obiazor)Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
80.5%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete deep left to #4 O.Miller thrown to KSTATE25Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+3
81.4%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush left for 3 yards gain to the CU48 (#23 A.Newsom), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
82.2%
(02:13) #35 D.Greaves punt 30 yards to the KSTATE22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:2586% → 89%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
86.1%
(02:05) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #6 S.Lockett caught at KSTATE29, for 7 yards to the KSTATE29 (#17 I.Hardge)Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
88.0%
(01:17) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE34 (#92 A.Barnes Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
87.7%
(00:38) Shotgun #6 Q.Moss rush left for 8 yards gain to the KSTATE42 (#98 A.McPherson)Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+10
89.5%
(00:01) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush right for 10 yards gain to the CU48, out of bounds at CU48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to CU42Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
89.5%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 9 yards gain to the CU39, out of bounds at CU39Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
89.2%
(14:18) Shotgun #22 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the CU39 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+5
88.4%
(13:40) #2 A.Johnson rush right for 5 yards gain to the CU34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
90.4%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Barnett rush right for 4 yards gain to the CU30 (#3 T.Parks)Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
90.4%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU26 (#53 A.Walker)Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
89.7%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 B.Barnett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CU21 (#42 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
90.5%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU17 (#3 T.Parks)Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
90.7%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Bradley thrown to CU13 broken up by #3 T.ParksSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
90.1%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #12 J.Tibbs thrown to CU19Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
89.2%
(10:23) #43 L.Rodriguez field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson), clock 10:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:059% → 36%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
90.8%
(10:21) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete deep right to #4 O.Miller caught at KSTATE40, for 43 yards to the KSTATE32 (#9 D.McIntosh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
87.1%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short right to #85 Z.Atkins thrown to KSTATE15Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
88.1%
(09:45) Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 0 yards to the KSTATE32 (#99 U.Seumalo; #52 R.Davis)Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
89.3%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete deep right to #4 O.Miller thrown to KSTATE01 broken up by #25 Z.Rich QB hurried by #32 D.Purnell PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (#25 Z.Rich) 15 yards from KSTATE32 to KSTATE17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.6%
(09:04) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short left thrown to KSTATE15Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
87.8%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush right for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE15 (#55 M.Alcorn-Crowder)Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+10
88.6%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush left for 10 yards gain to the KSTATE05 (#3 G.Maldonado), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
88.5%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush left for 4 yards gain to the KSTATE01 (#39 T.Bates)Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.7%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 0 yards to the KSTATE01 (#23 A.Newsom)Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.5%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:03 #16 A.Mata kick attempt good (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1676% → 95%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.0%
(07:02) Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short right to #4 J.Jackson caught at KSTATE23, for 1 yard loss to the KSTATE24 (#17 I.Hardge), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
76.7%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the KSTATE36 (#42 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
78.0%
(05:50) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the KSTATE40 (#92 A.Barnes Jr.)Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+16
79.2%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the CU44 (#4 P.Hodge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
81.6%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CU42 (#40 S.Myers)Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+16
84.4%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete short left to #12 J.Tibbs caught at CU32, for 16 yards to the CU26 (#4 P.Hodge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
85.7%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CU17 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+17
95.1%
(02:43) No Huddle #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 1:135% → 4%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.8%
(02:33) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short left to #4 O.Miller thrown to CU42Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
94.9%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete short left to #6 D.Miller thrown to CU19Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+16
95.2%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short middle to #4 O.Miller caught at CU39, for 16 yards to the CU39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
93.8%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short left to #85 Z.Atkins caught at CU44, for 15 yards to the KSTATE46 (#32 D.Purnell; #25 Z.Rich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.6%
(01:53) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass complete short middle to #6 D.Miller caught at KSTATE46, for 1 yard to the KSTATE45 (#4 D.Cobbs)Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
96.1%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSTATE42 (#8 C.Obiazor)Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
96.0%
(01:24) Shotgun #3 K.Salter pass incomplete deep left to #4 O.Miller thrown to KSTATE05Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 6
OPP 42
-1
96.4%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Salter sacked for loss of 1 yard to the KSTATE43 (#52 R.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19Uncategorized
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
96.6%
(01:12) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CU48 (#42 J.Brown)Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-2
96.9%
(00:29) Kneel down by Kansas State at CU50 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:03
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Welch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:03 #16 A.Mata kick attempt good (H: #35 D.Greaves, LS: #39 K.Hawkins)
-24.2
TD · Q3 4:32
(04:34) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
+11.6
TD · Q4 2:37
(02:43) No Huddle #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 17 yards gain to the CU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:37, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com