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UCF

UCF 21 at BYU 41

BYU
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+2.8BYU 83.1%(00:12) #44 W.Ferrin field goalattempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #35S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes),clock 00:09AWAY 14 - HOME 17 · Q2 0:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:09 · (00:12) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 00:09
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+4.9Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:54: (04:57) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:54 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +9.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:54: (09:08) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:54. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:13: (07:26) #40 A.Venneri punt 39 yards to the BYU45 #11 P.Kingston return 55 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:13 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:24: (03:28) Shotgun #35 A.Addae pass complete short left to #2 T.Jackson caught at BYU03, for 4 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs) — UCF win probability +10.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:47: (00:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF34, for 46 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:47, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +9.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:19BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:00BYU 4th & 16 at UCF 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−3.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:55UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:10UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:09BYU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:13UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:54UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:47BYU 4th & 3 at UCF 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:39BYU 4th & 8 at UCF 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:42UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:37UCF 4th & 4 at BYU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:53BYU 4th & 8 at UCF 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:03UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:26BYU 4th & 10 at UCF 31, up 20
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:27UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:34BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:54BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:54BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:13BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:24UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2411% → 14%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at UCF30, for 6 yards to the UCF31 (#4 M.Bamba)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
88.8%
(14:34) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #22 M.Montgomery thrown to UCF21 QB hurried by #54 S.EseraSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
88.7%
(14:24) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #19 W.Charles caught at UCF35, for 16 yards to the UCF47 (#25 T.Alfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
88.5%
(13:42) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush right for 18 yards gain to the BYU35 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
88.3%
PENALTY UCF False Start (#55 C.Kinnie) 5 yards from BYU35 to BYU40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+3
88.3%
(12:52) Shotgun #7 D.Thomas Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the BYU37 (#54 S.Esera)Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-1
88.1%
(12:16) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BYU38 (#17 J.Kelly; #48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+28
87.9%
(11:37) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at BYU25, for 38 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:26, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UCF Holding (#13 C.Domercant) 10 yards from BYU10 to BYU20Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
87.7%
(11:26) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #22 M.Montgomery caught at BYU20, for 4 yards to the BYU16 (#4 M.Bamba)Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
87.4%
(10:45) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #89 C.Rollerson caught at BYU12, for 8 yards to the BYU08 (#0 E.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
87.1%
(10:05) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #0 D.Wade caught at BYU07, for 4 yards to the BYU04 (#25 T.Alfrey)Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.1%
(09:30) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #0 D.Wade caught at BYU00, for 4 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27 #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3086% → 85%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.1%
(09:27) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 10 yards to the BYU15 (#20 L.Carter), fumble by #47 B.Bachmeier recovered by BYU #47 B.Bachmeier at BYU15, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
85.9%
(08:39) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 0 yards to the BYU15 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+10
85.4%
(07:56) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU15, for 10 yards to the BYU25 (#55 J.Walker; #29 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+21
84.8%
(07:32) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 48 yards to the UCF27 #7 A.Jackson return 21 yards to the UCF48 (#45 V.Po'uha)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3315% → 21%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.6%
(07:19) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Nixon thrown to BYU48 QB hurried by #57 K.TanuvasaSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
84.6%
(07:12) Shotgun #7 D.Thomas Jr. rush right for 9 yards gain to the BYU43 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+13
83.9%
(06:31) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #19 W.Charles caught at BYU30, for 13 yards to the BYU30 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
83.4%
(05:43) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at BYU26, for 7 yards to the BYU23 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
83.0%
(05:07) Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush left for 2 yards gain to the BYU21 (#55 J.Taumoepeau; #93 K.Latu-Finau)Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
82.6%
(04:26) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU20 (#54 S.Esera; #11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
79.3%
(03:39) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #35 A.Addae caught at BYU05, for 20 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:39, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5281% → 81%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.5%
(03:32) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU35 (#2 P.Dunnam)Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.8%
(02:50) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU39 (#9 N.Kelly; #8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
79.6%
(02:10) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #19 T.Bachmeier caught at BYU44, for 6 yards to the BYU45 (#5 D.Bell; #20 L.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
79.6%
(01:45) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at UCF44, for 26 yards to the UCF29 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
79.6%
(01:09) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF22 (#20 L.Carter; #99 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
79.2%
(00:35) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF19 (#43 C.Kozlowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
78.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 14 yards gain to the UCF05 (#8 D.Henderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
78.2%
(14:21) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF01 (#55 J.Walker; #95 R.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
(13:37) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:34 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0721% → 21%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
(13:34) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #35 A.Addae thrown to BYU40 QB hurried by #13 T.Akana and #17 J.KellySimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
(13:27) Shotgun #7 D.Thomas Jr. pass intercepted by #0 E.Johnson at UCF29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:1481% → 77%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
81.2%
(13:20) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 7 yards gain to the UCF22 (#2 P.Dunnam), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
80.9%
(12:40) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF20 (#43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
79.9%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#87 E.Erickson) 5 yards from UCF20 to UCF25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+9
79.5%
(11:37) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 9 yards gain to the UCF16 (#95 R.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
79.8%
(10:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UCF22 (#0 K.Lawson)Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 16
OPP 22
0
79.0%
(10:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to UCF18 QB hurried by #43 C.KozlowskiSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 16
OPP 22
0
77.7%
(10:09) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to UCF10 broken up by #2 P.DunnamSimilar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+40
76.6%
(10:04) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 10:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5824% → 24%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
76.4%
(10:00) Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCF23 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
75.5%
(09:15) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #19 W.Charles thrown to UCF25 QB hurried by #17 J.Kelly and #5 N.TaumoepeauSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
75.7%
(09:08) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #19 W.Charles thrown to UCF48Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
76.2%
(09:02) #40 A.Venneri punt 36 yards to the BYU41 fair catch by #11 P.Kingston at BYU41 PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from BYU41 to BYU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:5477% → 84%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
76.9%
(08:55) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU50 (#7 A.Jackson; #6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
50
+4
76.3%
(08:15) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF46 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
75.7%
(07:33) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UCF38 (#6 I.Nixon; #43 C.Kozlowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
75.1%
(06:44) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF34 (#43 C.Kozlowski; #55 J.Walker)Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+13
75.5%
(05:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #13 J.Phillips caught at UCF21, for 13 yards to the UCF21, out of bounds at UCF21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
75.1%
(05:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #20 C.Ryan caught at UCF05, for 20 yards to the UCF01 (#0 K.Lawson; #7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
(04:57) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:54 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3720% → 21%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.8%
(04:47) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF25, for 17 yards to the UCF42 (#28 T.Wall; #17 J.Kelly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.1%
(04:17) Shotgun #7 D.Thomas Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the UCF42 (#7 L.Lutui)Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
78.4%
(03:37) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UCF39 (#48 B.Schoonover; #57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+3
78.8%
(02:53) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #5 J.Nixon caught at UCF39, for 3 yards to the UCF42 (#29 J.Dunlap)Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
79.1%
(02:10) #40 A.Venneri punt 58 yards to the BYU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 1:5179% → 83%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
79.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at BYU33, for 13 yards to the BYU33 (#4 B.Marshall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
79.6%
(01:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at BYU36, for 6 yards to the BYU39 (#7 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+10
80.8%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 2 yards gain to the BYU41 (#2 P.Dunnam) PENALTY BYU Holding (#71 I.Jatta) 10 yards from BYU39 to BYU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+7
78.8%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU28, for 7 yards to the BYU36, out of bounds at BYU36Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
79.0%
(01:23) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF49, for 15 yards to the UCF49 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
81.1%
(01:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF35, for 28 yards to the UCF21, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
81.2%
(01:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF18 (#99 J.Johnson; #43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+9
81.1%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF20, for 2 yards loss to the UCF20 (#29 J.Bellamy) PENALTY UCF Face Mask (#6 I.Nixon) 9 yards from UCF18 to UCF09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
82.4%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF06 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
82.3%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UCF16 (#0 K.Lawson)Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
80.2%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at UCF12, for 8 yards to the UCF08 (#5 D.Bell; #20 L.Carter)Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
83.1%
(00:12) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 00:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.4%
(00:06) Kneel down by UCF at UCF23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0080% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BYU33 (#51 M.Lawrence)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
81.3%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 8 yards gain to the BYU41 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
81.4%
(13:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU50, for 9 yards to the BYU50 (#20 L.Carter; #2 P.Dunnam)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 1
50
+12
81.7%
(12:57) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UCF38 (#2 P.Dunnam; #7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.5%
(12:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 0 yards to the UCF38 (#29 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+22
81.1%
(11:35) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at UCF25, for 22 yards to the UCF16 (#43 C.Kozlowski; #29 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
81.6%
(10:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF11, for 6 yards to the UCF10 (#7 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
81.5%
(10:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF07 (#94 R.Lora; #6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
80.7%
(09:30) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF04 (#99 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BYU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UCF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsettingSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.9%
(09:08) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:54. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3013% → 6%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.9%
(08:54) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards loss to the UCF20 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
87.2%
(08:12) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #1 K.Fox caught at UCF20, for 2 yards to the UCF22 (#1 T.Alexander; #11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-6
87.9%
(07:34) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UCF16 (#17 J.Kelly) PENALTY UCF Intentional Grounding (#2 T.Jackson)Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+55
94.1%
(07:26) #40 A.Venneri punt 39 yards to the BYU45 #11 P.Kingston return 55 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:13 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:346% → 17%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.0%
(07:04) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF23 (#55 J.Taumoepeau) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (#55 J.Taumoepeau) 15 yards from UCF23 to UCF38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
93.5%
(06:45) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 D.Black caught at UCF41, for 9 yards to the UCF47 (#1 T.Alexander), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
93.2%
(06:06) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #0 D.Wade thrown to BYU23Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
93.6%
(06:03) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #19 W.Charles thrown to BYU48Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+7
93.7%
(05:59) #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU46 (#7 L.Lutui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
(05:23) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Black thrown to BYU41Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.5%
(05:20) Shotgun #7 D.Thomas Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU41 (#3 R.Damuni; #29 J.Dunlap)Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+33
94.1%
(04:36) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short middle to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at BYU43, for 33 yards to the BYU08 (#4 M.Bamba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
93.4%
(04:01) Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU04 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.3%
(03:28) Shotgun #35 A.Addae pass complete short left to #2 T.Jackson caught at BYU03, for 4 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1687% → 98%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.2%
(03:23) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #82 N.Moeaki caught at BYU36, for 11 yards to the BYU36, out of bounds at BYU36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
87.8%
(02:51) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at BYU45, for 11 yards to the BYU47 (#20 L.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
89.0%
(02:14) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU48 (#94 R.Lora)Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
88.9%
(01:44) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #28 J.Damuni thrown to BYU46 QB hurried by #55 J.WalkerSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+6
88.1%
(01:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #4 L.Martin caught at UCF47, for 6 yards to the UCF46 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+46
97.6%
(00:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF34, for 46 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:47, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:235% → 5%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.5%
(00:47) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #19 W.Charles caught at UCF27, for 10 yards to the UCF35 (#1 T.Alexander), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
95.2%
(00:11) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
95.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #9 D.Black thrown to UCF45 QB hurried by #13 T.Akana and #17 J.KellySimilar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
95.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #19 W.Charles caught at UCF42, for 11 yards to the UCF49 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
95.4%
(14:18) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UCF46 (#17 J.Kelly), fumble by #2 T.Jackson recovered by BYU #3 R.Damuni at UCF46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:3398% → 99%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
98.3%
(14:18) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF39 (#8 D.Henderson; #43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
98.6%
(13:33) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF32 (#92 J.Lafontant; #43 C.Kozlowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
98.7%
(12:48) #11 P.Kingston rush right for 3 yards loss to the UCF35 (#51 M.Lawrence)Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+5
98.8%
(12:08) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #4 L.Martin caught at UCF34, for 5 yards to the UCF30 (#43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
98.8%
(11:25) #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #13 J.Phillips caught at UCF30, for 0 yards to the UCF30 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
98.7%
(10:44) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 10:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:573% → 3%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.7%
(10:39) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to UCF37 QB hurried by #16 I.GlaskerSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
96.9%
(10:34) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to UCF34 QB hurried by #16 I.Glasker and #57 K.TanuvasaSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
97.0%
(10:27) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #22 M.Montgomery caught at UCF33, for 7 yards to the UCF37 (#0 E.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+19
96.8%
(09:49) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #35 A.Addae caught at UCF41, for 19 yards to the BYU44 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.5%
(09:26) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #35 A.Addae caught at BYU41, for 5 yards to the BYU39 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
96.3%
PENALTY UCF False Start 5 yards from BYU39 to BYU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.6%
(08:37) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #13 C.Domercant thrown to BYU02Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.7%
(08:27) Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush left for 6 yards gain to the BYU38 (#3 R.Damuni; #45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
96.8%
(07:43) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Wade thrown to BYU20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
(07:37) #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Phillips thrown to BYU43Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.5%
(07:33) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush left for 7 yards gain to the BYU45 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+21
99.6%
(06:56) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF43, for 21 yards to the UCF34 (#8 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.6%
(06:11) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF31 (#43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-2
99.6%
(05:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UCF33 (#8 D.Henderson)Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+1
99.7%
(04:42) Shotgun #5 C.Hagen rush right for 1 yard gain to the UCF32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
99.8%
(03:58) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 03:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
(03:52) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short middle to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF25, for 6 yards to the UCF31 (#46 K.Wall; #18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
(03:15) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #7 D.Thomas Jr. thrown to BYU49 broken up by #4 M.BambaSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
(03:15) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #19 W.Charles thrown to UCF45 broken up by #3 R.DamuniSimilar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
(03:11) Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #19 W.Charles thrown to UCF34 QB hurried by #18 A.Kaufusi, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
(03:03) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush right for 0 yards to the UCF31 (#51 M.Lawrence; #92 J.Lafontant) PENALTY BYU Holding (#72 J.Brown) 10 yards from UCF31 to UCF41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
(02:31) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush left for 7 yards gain to the UCF34 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
(02:00) Shotgun #28 J.Damuni rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF32 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+1
99.8%
(01:15) Shotgun #3 M.Hillstead rush left for 1 yard gain to the UCF31 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 31
-3
99.8%
(00:26) Kneel down by BYU at UCF34 for loss of 3 yards, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22Uncategorized
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:060% → 0%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.7%
(00:11) Shotgun #10 D.Belfort pass complete short right to #35 A.Addae caught at UCF37, for 5 yards to the UCF39 (#18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+13
99.7%
(00:05) Shotgun #10 D.Belfort pass complete short left to #35 A.Addae caught at UCF45, for 13 yards to the BYU48 (#20 C.DeVries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:24
(03:28) Shotgun #35 A.Addae pass complete short left to #2 T.Jackson caught at BYU03, for 4 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24 #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)
-10.1
TD · Q3 0:47
(00:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at UCF34, for 46 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:47, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
+9.5
TD · Q2 4:54
(04:57) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:54 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com