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OKST

Oklahoma State 14 at UCF 17

UCF
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+26.9UCF 93.2%(00:57) #16 N.Ruelas field goalattempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #40A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs), clock00:57AWAY 14 - HOME 17 · Q4 0:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · (00:57) #16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs), clock 00:57
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+0.5Home team on offense+21.9Garbage-time factor+12.2Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:39: (14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF45, for 83 yards to the OKST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:39, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs) — UCF win probability +13.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:12: Dylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick) — UCF win probability +27.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:53: (01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OKST15 (#88 L.Dean) — UCF win probability +16.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: Timeout Oklahoma State, clock 01:49 — OKST win probability +15.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  5. FG · Q4 0:57: (00:57) #16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs), clock 00:57 — UCF win probability +26.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 5:24UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:14OKST 4th & 1 at UCF 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:12OKST 4th & 10 at OKST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:31UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:25UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:54OKST 4th & 2 at UCF 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:40OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:55OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:55UCF 4th & 15 at OKST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−2.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:41OKST 4th & 12 at OKST 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−4.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51UCF 4th & 16 at OKST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:55OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:21UCF 4th & 1 at OKST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−6.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−8.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:12UCF 4th & 2 at OKST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−4.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−21.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:46OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:57UCF 4th & 6 at OKST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−5.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−35.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:06OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:50OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:39UCF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:12UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:4819% → 24%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #20 R.Fields Jr. caught at OKST18, for 12 yards to the OKST37 (#7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
80.7%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the OKST41 (#2 P.Dunnam)Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
80.5%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete deep left to #2 T.Davis thrown to UCF31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
80.4%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #7 S.Rigby caught at UCF48, for 13 yards to the UCF46 (#7 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.2%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the UCF40 (#29 J.Bellamy)Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
79.9%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF38 (#88 D.LeBlanc)Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
79.7%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Vailahi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UCF35 (#20 L.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
79.4%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short right to #2 T.Davis caught at UCF21, for 14 yards to the UCF21 (#29 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
79.1%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF20 (#99 J.Johnson; #55 J.Walker)Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
78.9%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right to #20 R.Fields Jr. thrown to UCF21 broken up by #43 C.KozlowskiSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+11
79.0%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short middle to #2 T.Davis caught at UCF15, for 11 yards to the UCF09 (#2 P.Dunnam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
78.4%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the UCF05 (#8 D.Henderson; #6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.4%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short middle to #17 G.Freeman caught at UCF06, for 5 yards to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:06 #19 L.Ward kick attempt good (H: #90 W.Pahl, LS: #57 A.Davenport)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3677% → 75%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.0%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 D.Black caught at UCF33, for 10 yards to the UCF35 (#9 L.Fields; #23 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
76.9%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF41, for 10 yards to the UCF45 (#27 R.Gay II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
77.0%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush right for 7 yards gain to the OKST48 (#9 L.Fields; #25 I.Esonwune)Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
77.0%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #19 W.Charles thrown to OKST42Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
76.8%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OKST46 (#5 B.McCoy Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+5
76.2%
PENALTY UCF False Start (#55 C.Kinnie) 5 yards from OKST46 to UCF49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
75.4%
(05:31) #40 A.Venneri punt 51 yards to the OKST00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 4:0125% → 28%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.1%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short right to #2 T.Davis caught at OKST24, for 9 yards to the OKST29 (#5 D.Bell)Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
74.4%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OKST32 (#95 R.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
74.0%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OKST38 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+16
73.1%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #3 S.Vailahi caught at OKST40, for 16 yards to the UCF46 (#49 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
72.5%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete deep right to #2 T.Davis thrown to UCF25 broken up by #29 J.BellamySimilar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
72.4%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCF40 (#94 R.Lora; #92 J.Lafontant)Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
71.7%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF37 (#92 J.Lafontant; #94 R.Lora)Similar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
71.7%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short right to #20 R.Fields Jr. caught at UCF39, for 0 yards to the UCF37 (#2 P.Dunnam), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3473% → 73%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
72.6%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short middle to #19 W.Charles caught at OKST49, for 14 yards to the OKST49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.2%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #89 C.Rollerson thrown to OKST39Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
72.9%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass intercepted by #3 C.Smith at OKST41 broken up by #25 I.Esonwune #3 C.Smith return 5 yards to the OKST46 (#12 C.Jenkins Jr)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1030% → 29%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
70.5%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 G.Freeman rush left for 3 yards loss to the OKST43 (#4 B.Marshall)Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
70.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short left to #85 G.Brousseau thrown to OKST50 broken up by #7 A.JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+3
71.0%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Vailahi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OKST46 (#0 K.Lawson)Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
70.9%
(14:25) #90 W.Pahl punt 52 yards to the UCF02 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3371% → 69%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
70.8%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush left for 9 yards gain to the UCF11 (#9 L.Fields)Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+2
70.7%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF13 (#0 M.Charles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.2%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #19 W.Charles thrown to UCF50 broken up by #8 P.RobertsonSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
70.1%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF20 (#23 K.Harris)Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+20
69.3%
(12:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #22 M.Montgomery caught at UCF15, for 20 yards to the UCF40 (#25 I.Esonwune; #8 P.Robertson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
70.6%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF42 (#5 B.McCoy Jr.; #71 A.Kelley)Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
70.2%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF49 (#25 I.Esonwune; #1 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-3
70.0%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UCF46 fumbled by #5 J.Nixon at UCF46 forced by #8 P.Robertson recovered by UCF #5 J.Nixon at UCF46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+7
68.5%
(10:45) #40 A.Venneri punt 35 yards to the OKST19 #11 R.Capell return 7 yards to the OKST26 (#83 D.Coleman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1132% → 32%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
67.6%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OKST28 (#0 K.Lawson)Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
66.4%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short middle to #17 G.Freeman thrown to OKST26Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
67.8%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right to #7 S.Rigby thrown to OKST35Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
68.4%
(09:23) #90 W.Pahl punt 57 yards to the UCF15 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5067% → 63%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
67.4%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #9 D.Black thrown to UCF29 PENALTY UCF Holding (#62 J.Brooks) 7 yards from UCF15 to UCF08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+31
67.2%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 31 yards gain to the UCF39 (#27 R.Gay II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
67.7%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #19 W.Charles caught at UCF44, for 6 yards to the UCF45 (#3 C.Smith; #26 J.Oliphant Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
67.4%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at UCF41, for 2 yards loss to the UCF43 (#8 P.Robertson)Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-7
66.0%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UCF36 (#0 M.Charles)Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+4
63.3%
(06:42) #40 A.Venneri punt 45 yards to the OKST19 #17 G.Freeman return 4 yards to the OKST23 (#7 A.Jackson; #30 K.Moore)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:2736% → 59%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
63.8%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short middle to #17 G.Freeman caught at OKST20, for 7 yards to the OKST30 (#8 D.Henderson; #43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+26
62.0%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 26 yards gain to the UCF44 (#5 D.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.0%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right to #14 C.Abshire thrown to UCF31Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
59.9%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Vailahi rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF37 (#2 P.Dunnam; #5 D.Bell)Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+9
59.3%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short right to #18 S.Jackson V caught at UCF40, for 9 yards to the UCF28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
57.2%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #17 G.Freeman caught at UCF24, for 9 yards to the UCF19 (#4 B.Marshall)Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
56.0%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right thrown to UCF15 QB hurried by #9 N.Kelly and #55 J.WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-1
56.3%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UCF20 (#43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+3
56.2%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores rush left for 3 yards gain to the UCF17 (#95 R.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
53.7%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF16 (#0 K.Lawson)Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+10
52.5%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 10 yards gain to the UCF06 (#20 L.Carter; #51 M.Lawrence), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.8%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:50 #19 L.Ward kick attempt good (H: #90 W.Pahl, LS: #57 A.Davenport)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10INT
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:1245% → 45%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.7%
(00:50) PENALTY UCF False Start (#62 J.Brooks) 5 yards from UCF25 to UCF20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
44.0%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #19 W.Charles caught at UCF25, for 16 yards to the UCF36 (#8 P.Robertson; #3 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.2%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #9 D.Black thrown to UCF40Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
45.3%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass intercepted by #9 L.Fields at OKST40 #9 L.Fields return for loss of 5 yards to the OKST35 (#19 W.Charles) PENALTY OKST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from OKST35 to OKST20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the OKST24 (#29 J.Bellamy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
56.9%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep right to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF45, for 83 yards to the OKST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:39, 1ST DOWN #16 N.Ruelas kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5545% → 44%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right to #7 S.Rigby thrown to OKST35Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.1%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OKST26 (#94 R.Lora)Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
55.1%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete deep left to #2 T.Davis thrown to OKST50 QB hurried by #9 N.KellySimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
56.0%
(13:48) #90 W.Pahl punt 47 yards to the UCF27 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2956% → 53%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
56.3%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UCF26 (#87 D.Brown)Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+5
54.7%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #9 D.Black caught at UCF31, for 5 yards to the UCF31 (#3 C.Smith)Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+7
53.8%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UCF38 (#6 B.Rawls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
55.3%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF40 (#6 B.Rawls)Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
55.5%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at UCF37, for 5 yards to the UCF45 (#27 R.Gay II; #25 I.Esonwune)Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
55.2%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Belfort rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UCF46 (#8 P.Robertson)Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
53.0%
(10:41) #40 A.Venneri punt 40 yards to the OKST14 fair catch by #17 G.Freeman at OKST14 PENALTY UCF Illegal Formation 5 yards from OKST14 to OKST19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0550% → 49%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
50.5%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short right to #18 S.Jackson V thrown to OKST35Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
50.7%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores sacked for loss of 1 yard to the OKST18 (#92 J.Lafontant, #95 R.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+7
51.3%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short left to #17 G.Freeman caught at OKST25, for 7 yards to the OKST25 (#0 K.Lawson) PENALTY OKST Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+14
51.4%
(09:06) #90 W.Pahl punt 40 yards to the UCF35 #7 A.Jackson return 14 yards to the UCF49 (#98 L.Webb)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:5054% → 47%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
54.4%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #19 W.Charles caught at OKST46, for 7 yards to the OKST44 (#23 K.Harris)Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
55.1%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OKST42 (#25 I.Esonwune; #30 T.White)Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
54.3%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush right for 1 yard gain to the OKST41 (#25 I.Esonwune; #30 T.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
54.0%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush left for 4 yards gain to the OKST37 (#5 B.McCoy Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
53.6%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to OKST35 QB hurried by #0 M.Charles and #4 W.GregorySimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-9
53.0%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OKST46 (#4 W.Gregory)Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
46.7%
(06:09) #40 A.Venneri punt 33 yards to the OKST13 fair catch by #11 R.Capell at OKST13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0555% → 56%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
45.0%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OKST16 (#55 J.Walker; #43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
44.4%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OKST19 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-8
43.9%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores sacked for loss of 8 yards to the OKST11 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
44.2%
(03:47) #90 W.Pahl punt 45 yards to the UCF44 fair catch by #7 A.Jackson at UCF44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 7 yds · 3:4549% → 36%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
48.8%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UCF46 (#98 L.Webb)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
48.5%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF50 (#94 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 4
50
+5
48.7%
(02:40) PENALTY UCF False Start (#69 P.Rubelt) 5 yards from UCF50 to UCF45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+12
43.2%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush left for 12 yards gain to the OKST43 (#9 L.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
47.6%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OKST39 (#94 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
47.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush left for 3 yards gain to the OKST36 (#8 P.Robertson) PENALTY UCF Holding (#62 J.Brooks) 10 yards from OKST39 to OKST49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 16
OPP 49
0
41.1%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to OKST48 QB hurried by #94 A.NnodimSimilar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
38.7%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush left for 0 yards to the OKST49 (#0 M.Charles; #8 P.Robertson)Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 16
OPP 49
+5
36.2%
(14:57) #40 A.Venneri punt 41 yards to the OKST08 #17 G.Freeman return 5 yards to the OKST13 (#43 C.Kozlowski)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5164% → 66%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
35.7%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short middle to #18 S.Jackson V thrown to OKST15Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
33.9%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Vailahi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OKST15 (#95 R.Jackson Jr.; #20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+5
34.1%
(14:08) PENALTY OKST False Start 5 yards from OKST15 to OKST10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+4
33.8%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Vailahi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OKST14 (#9 N.Kelly)Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+15
34.2%
(13:08) #90 W.Pahl punt 46 yards to the UCF40 #7 A.Jackson return 15 yards to the OKST45 (#38 C.Young; #22 K.Foreman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:2941% → 64%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
41.0%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #19 W.Charles caught at OKST37, for 9 yards to the OKST36 QB hurried by #5 B.McCoy Jr. (#13 E.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+10
40.7%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush right for 7 yards gain to the OKST29 (#8 P.Robertson; #27 R.Gay II) PENALTY UCF Holding (#0 D.Wade) 10 yards from OKST36 to OKST46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
39.3%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #0 D.Wade thrown to OKST25 QB hurried by #25 I.EsonwuneSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
36.8%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 D.Thomas Jr. caught at OKST41, for 10 yards to the OKST36 (#8 P.Robertson)Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+26
37.3%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short middle to #19 W.Charles caught at OKST30, for 26 yards to the OKST10 QB hurried by #35 P.Utu (#94 A.Nnodim), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OKST Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
42.0%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson rush right for 8 yards gain to the OKST02 (#6 B.Rawls)Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.3%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 0 yards to the OKST02 (#4 W.Gregory; #33 K.Duhon)Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.0%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Belfort rush right for 0 yards to the OKST02 (#6 B.Rawls)Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.2%
Dylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2043% → 45%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete deep right to #84 M.Lopez thrown to UCF40Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.6%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass complete short middle to #17 G.Freeman caught at OKST23, for 12 yards to the OKST37 (#99 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
54.8%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OKST38 (#20 L.Carter)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
54.0%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 R.Fields Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the OKST41 (#6 I.Nixon)Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
51.6%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Davis thrown to OKST46 broken up by #5 D.BellSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
55.4%
(06:54) #90 W.Pahl punt 49 yards to the UCF10, out of bounds at UCF10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:3660% → 93%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+50
59.8%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete deep left to #0 D.Wade caught at UCF31, for 50 yards to the OKST40 (#27 R.Gay II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
66.3%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OKST32 (#3 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
67.7%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush middle for 0 yards to the OKST32 (#88 L.Dean)Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
65.4%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 M.Montgomery rush right for 2 yards gain to the OKST30 (#3 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
67.4%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Jackson pass complete short left to #19 W.Charles caught at OKST25, for 16 yards to the OKST14 (#3 C.Smith) PENALTY UCF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#80 M.Drag) 5 yards from OKST30 to OKST35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+6
64.6%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OKST29 fumbled by #5 J.Nixon at OKST29 forced by #30 T.White recovered by UCF #78 P.Cushman at OKST29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
66.8%
(02:35) PENALTY UCF False Start (#55 C.Kinnie) 5 yards from OKST29 to OKST34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+14
63.9%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush left for 14 yards gain to the OKST20 (#13 E.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
69.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OKST15 (#88 L.Dean)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-2
69.3%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush right for 2 yards loss to the OKST17 (#8 P.Robertson)Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+1
66.2%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush right for 1 yard gain to the OKST16 (#6 B.Rawls; #27 R.Gay II)Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
93.2%
(00:57) #16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs), clock 00:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-35
88.3%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Flores pass intercepted by #4 B.Marshall at OKST45 broken up by #29 J.Bellamy #4 B.Marshall return 35 yards to the OKST10 (#11 R.Capell) PENALTY UCF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#21 S.Gage) 15 yards from OKST10 to OKST25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2796% → 96%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
95.6%
(00:46) Kneel down by UCF at OKST27 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-1
96.1%
(00:19) Kneel down by UCF at OKST28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:12
Dylan Wade 2 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)
+27.3
FG · Q4 0:57
(00:57) #16 N.Ruelas field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #40 A.Venneri, LS: #47 D.Riggs), clock 00:57
+26.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:53
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 J.Nixon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OKST15 (#88 L.Dean)
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com