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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:45 · (01:52) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #31 J.Simms at TCU00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:21: (08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at TCU00, for 15 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:21, 1ST DOWN #92 E.Sanchez kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza) — HOU win probability +9.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:34: Dean Connors 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — HOU win probability +20.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:05: (02:05) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU09 (#10 L.McCutchin; #15 W.James) — TCU win probability +16.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58: (02:05) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU07 (#36 J.Garner; #10 L.McCutchin) — TCU win probability +19.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:35: (00:46) Kneel down by #10 J.Hoover at TCU18 for loss of 2 yards — TCU win probability +19.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 9:57HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:04HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 49, down 7Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snapGo for it46.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:21TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 17, up 7Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:31HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.8%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q2 14:53HOU 4th & 12 at TCU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.424% to convertField goal39.0%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call39.5%average punt
- Q2 1:45HOU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.1%59% to convertField goal36.7%−3.494% to makePunt28.5%−11.6average punt
- Q3 12:30HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.6%−1.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.7%average punt
- Q3 11:31TCU 4th & 5 at midfield, up 7Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snapGo for it66.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:09HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 18, down 7Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snapGo for it35.1%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:29TCU 4th & 22 at TCU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it41.4%−7.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q3 1:44HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it54.1%−1.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q3 0:21TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 28, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 46.2% before the snapGo for it48.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%−2.0average punt
- Q4 14:33HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it50.4%−5.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q4 11:21TCU 4th & 6 at HOU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snapGo for it47.9%−0.836% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%86% to makePunt30.4%−18.3average punt
- Q4 6:21HOU 4th & 9 at TCU 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snapGo for it36.4%−3.632% to convertField goalTheir call40.0%54% to makePunt32.7%−7.3average punt
- Q4 1:53TCU 4th & 1 at HOU 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.6%67% to convertField goal75.8%−10.892% to makePunt53.0%−33.6average punt
- Q4 0:46HOU 4th & 4 at TCU 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snapGo for it28.0%−13.247% to convertField goalTheir call41.2%75% to makePunt12.1%−29.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:20TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.5%97% to makeGo for two52.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:45TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:21HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.0%97% to makeGo for two50.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTCUDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3453% → 54%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 12 yards gain to the TCU37 (#36 J.Garner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
47.0%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU41, for 4 yards to the TCU41 (#24 W.Brown)Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
47.0%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TCU49 (#90 E.Walls III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
47.0%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU46, for 4 yards to the HOU47 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Holding (#14 J.Manjack IV) 10 yards from HOU47 to TCU43Similar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 16
OWN 43
+6
47.3%
(12:56) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU41, for 6 yards to the TCU49 (#15 W.James)Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
47.2%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU48 (#4 B.Mack)Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+15
47.2%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #26 J.Payne caught at HOU42, for 15 yards to the HOU33 (#24 W.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
45.9%
(11:25) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep right to #1 E.McAlister caught at HOU02, for 33 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:20, 1ST DOWN #99 C.Lingren kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler) #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:0146% → 46%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
46.3%
(11:14) Shotgun #18 K.Young rush left for 8 yards gain to the HOU39 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
46.6%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #3 H.Broussard thrown to HOU43Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
46.4%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU40 (#2 J.Johnson; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
46.2%
(10:02) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU42 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.4%
(09:29) Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 0 yards to the HOU42 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #0 Z.Chapman)Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
46.0%
(08:52) Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush left for 7 yards gain to the HOU49 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
46.3%
(08:17) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to TCU27Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
45.9%
(08:11) #91 L.Dougherty punt 42 yards to the TCU09 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3954% → 54%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
45.6%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard loss to the TCU08 (#10 L.McCutchin; #5 C.Allen)Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+5
45.4%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU13, for 5 yards to the TCU13 (#9 C.Platt Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+4
45.5%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU16, for 4 yards to the TCU17 (#8 K.Webb; #22 M.Stampley II)Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
45.6%
(06:28) #31 E.Craw punt 37 yards to the HOU46 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4546% → 45%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.0%
(06:21) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to TCU25 broken up by #22 J.LesterSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.7%
(06:16) Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush right for 3 yards gain to the HOU49 (#1 A.Jordan)Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
45.7%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to TCU44Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
45.1%
(05:36) #91 L.Dougherty punt 34 yards to the TCU17 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4155% → 62%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
44.9%
(05:30) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep middle to #4 J.Bailey thrown to TCU41Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
44.9%
(05:26) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU17 (#90 E.Walls III; #5 C.Allen)Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+26
45.1%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep left to #81 C.Curtis caught at TCU37, for 26 yards to the TCU43 (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
43.7%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #4 J.Bailey caught at TCU43, for 6 yards to the TCU49 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
43.6%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU48 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
43.4%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU45 (#98 M.Parker; #12 S.Fotu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.0%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #1 E.McAlister thrown to HOU28 QB hurried by #90 E.Walls IIISimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+17
42.9%
(02:44) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at HOU48, for 17 yards to the HOU28 (#25 C.Glass), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
42.6%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at HOU17, for 11 yards to the HOU17 (#6 J.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
37.8%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #7 J.Dwyer caught at HOU00, for 17 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3439% → 39%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
39.1%
(01:43) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete deep left to #44 D.Connors caught at TCU41, for 29 yards to the TCU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
40.1%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU40 (#33 M.Carroll; #35 T.Johnson)Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
39.8%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU39 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-4
39.5%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #44 D.Connors caught at TCU47, for 4 yards loss to the TCU43 (#11 D.Deal; #99 C.Lingren)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7INT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5063% → 64%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
37.3%
(14:53) #26 J.Payne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU29 (#22 M.Stampley II; #9 C.Platt Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
36.7%
(14:34) #26 J.Payne rush left for 6 yards gain to the TCU35 (#10 L.McCutchin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.2%
(14:04) #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #15 W.James at HOU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD13 plays · 62 yds · 5:2738% → 45%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
38.3%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #44 D.Connors caught at HOU36, for 7 yards to the HOU45 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
38.4%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 S.Sneed rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU46 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
37.9%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 1 yard gain to the HOU47 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
37.6%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game (#2 J.Johnson) 5 yards from HOU47 to TCU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.0%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #21 S.Sneed thrown to TCU38Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
37.0%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU45 (#95 M.Deal), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
36.5%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU50, for 8 yards to the TCU37 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
36.4%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #9 T.Koziol thrown to TCU25Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
36.3%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush left for 4 yards loss to the TCU41 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+11
34.5%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TCU30 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+10
34.8%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #44 D.Connors thrown to TCU12 PENALTY TCU Holding (#1 A.Jordan) 10 yards from TCU30 to TCU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
35.7%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 5 yards gain to the TCU15 (#0 Z.Chapman)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
45.3%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #0 A.Thomas caught at TCU00, for 15 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:21, 1ST DOWN #92 E.Sanchez kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9INT7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5960% → 63%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
39.9%
(08:14) No Huddle #26 J.Payne rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU35 (#6 J.Allen)Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
39.0%
(07:52) No Huddle #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU39 (#12 S.Fotu; #1 L.McCutchin Sr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.3%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Bailey thrown to HOU40Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
38.5%
(07:21) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU43, for 4 yards to the TCU43 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
38.3%
(06:57) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #0 D.Rogers caught at TCU49, for 8 yards to the HOU49 QB hurried by #12 S.Fotu and #0 A.Thomas (#8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
37.4%
(06:17) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #24 W.Brown at HOU07 broken up by #8 K.Webb QB hurried by #90 E.Walls III, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT13 plays · 90 yds · 4:2040% → 41%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
39.9%
(06:10) Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HOU08 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+1
39.7%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 1 yard gain to the HOU09 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+54
38.6%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 54 yards gain to the TCU37 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
42.8%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #25 D.Butler caught at TCU37, for 8 yards to the TCU29 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+7
43.9%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush right for 7 yards gain to the TCU22 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
43.8%
(03:12) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep left to #18 K.Young thrown to TCU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#7 C.Canada) 15 yards from TCU22 to TCU07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
43.0%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU04 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
42.6%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU03 (#95 M.Deal)Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #0 A.Thomas rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU01 (#11 D.Deal; #3 K.Elarms-Orr), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass intercepted by #31 J.Simms at TCU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11FUMBLE5 plays · 69 yds · 0:5064% → 69%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
36.2%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 28 yards gain to the TCU48 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
33.5%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU46, for 52 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:03, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Holding (#7 J.Dwyer) 10 yards from HOU30 to HOU40Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
32.0%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU35 (#90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+24
31.5%
(00:55) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #4 J.Bailey caught at HOU27, for 24 yards to the HOU11 fumbled by #4 J.Bailey at HOU24 forced by #15 W.James recovered by HOU #6 J.Allen at HOU11, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · -3 yds · 0:2638% → 37%
HOUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · -54 yds · 2:2543% → 35%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
42.7%
(14:55) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #18 K.Young thrown to HOU44 PENALTY HOU Holding (#66 M.Agnello) 10 yards from TCU21 to TCU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
37.0%
(12:59) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep left to #18 K.Young thrown to TCU44 PENALTY HOU Holding (#66 M.Agnello) 10 yards from HOU21 to HOU11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+7
36.5%
(12:39) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 7 yards gain to the HOU18 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
36.5%
(12:30) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #3 H.Broussard thrown to HOU35Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+7
35.3%
(12:30) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #44 D.Connors caught at HOU20, for 7 yards to the HOU25 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
35.0%
(12:30) #91 L.Dougherty punt 44 yards to the TCU31 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:5965% → 66%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
34.6%
Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU32 (#5 C.Allen)Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
34.8%
Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard gain to the TCU33 (#36 J.Garner)Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
35.6%
Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to HOU46, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY HOU Illegal Substitution declined HOU Pass Interference (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.) 12 yards from TCU33 to TCU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
33.0%
Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU46 (#12 S.Fotu; #4 B.Mack)Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
33.1%
Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU50, for 4 yards to the TCU50 (#1 L.McCutchin Sr.)Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
50
0
33.1%
Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep right to #4 J.Bailey thrown to HOU12 broken up by #24 W.BrownSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 5
50
0
33.9%
#31 E.Craw punt 39 yards to the HOU11 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1736% → 34%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
36.2%
(11:30) Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU16 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
36.2%
(11:04) Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush left for 2 yards gain to the HOU18 (#35 T.Johnson; #26 V.Glover)Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
34.9%
(10:19) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #3 H.Broussard thrown to HOU35Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
34.3%
(10:15) #91 L.Dougherty punt 42 yards to the TCU40 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16INT5 plays · 28 yds · 1:2068% → 69%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.2%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU43 (#90 E.Walls III; #5 C.Allen)Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+37
32.1%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep right to #1 E.McAlister caught at HOU27, for 37 yards to the HOU20 (#21 Z.Vedder), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
30.7%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at HOU00, for 20 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:17 PENALTY TCU Personal Foul (#81 C.Curtis) 15 yards from HOU20 to HOU35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+3
31.1%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU32 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 22
OPP 32
0
31.3%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #15 W.James at HOU29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD6 plays · 71 yds · 3:0436% → 60%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
36.1%
(08:43) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 6 yards gain to the HOU35 (#4 N.Obiazor; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
37.5%
(08:10) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 3 yards gain to the HOU38 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
37.7%
(07:36) #1 C.Weigman rush left for 3 yards gain to the HOU41 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
37.8%
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU35, for 23 yards to the TCU36 (#20 J.McIver Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
39.4%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 28 yards gain to the TCU08 (#1 A.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5849% → 46%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.1%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU23, for 11 yards to the TCU36 (#90 E.Walls III; #36 J.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
49.3%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #81 C.Curtis caught at TCU36, for 1 yard to the TCU37 (#36 J.Garner)Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
49.6%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 1 yard gain to the TCU38 (#4 B.Mack)Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-7
49.7%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 14 yards to the TCU24 (#9 C.Platt Jr., #6 J.Allen)Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
54.1%
(03:36) #31 E.Craw punt 36 yards to the HOU40 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4557% → 56%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.2%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #21 S.Sneed caught at HOU36, for 0 yards to the HOU40 (#0 Z.Chapman; #95 M.Deal) PENALTY HOU Holding (#66 M.Agnello) 10 yards from HOU40 to HOU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+11
54.5%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 11 yards gain to the HOU41 (#19 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
56.7%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush left for 2 yards gain to the HOU43 (#95 M.Deal)Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
57.1%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete deep right to #0 A.Thomas thrown to TCU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1848% → 46%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.7%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU22 (#90 E.Walls III; #24 W.Brown)Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
51.8%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU28 (#18 K.Laufau)Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
51.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Rogers thrown to TCU29Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
54.1%
(00:27) #31 E.Craw punt 39 yards to the HOU33 fair catch by #4 M.Mews at HOU33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4857% → 54%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
57.2%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 1 yard loss to the HOU32 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
56.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #18 K.Young thrown to HOU43Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
54.9%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short left to #44 D.Connors thrown to HOU29Similar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+53
54.4%
(14:51) #91 L.Dougherty punt 50 yards to the TCU18 #7 J.Dwyer return 53 yards to the HOU29 (#13 C.Douglas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FG7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0155% → 61%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
45.3%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Bailey rush left for 1 yard loss to the HOU30 (#8 K.Webb; #90 E.Walls III)Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
45.3%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at HOU26, for 4 yards to the HOU26 (#15 W.James)Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
47.4%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush right for 10 yards gain to the HOU16 (#15 W.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
45.0%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU11 (#36 J.Garner)Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-1
44.9%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #0 D.Rogers caught at HOU13, for 1 yard loss to the HOU12 (#5 C.Allen; #24 W.Brown)Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
46.8%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV thrown to HOU00Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
38.8%
(11:26) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #96 C.Keeler), clock 11:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23MISSED FG10 plays · 44 yds · 4:5344% → 42%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
43.7%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush right for 13 yards gain to the HOU38 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
45.5%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush left for 1 yard gain to the HOU39 (#0 Z.Chapman)Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+19
43.8%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 T.Koziol caught at TCU42, for 19 yards to the TCU42 (#7 C.Canada), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
48.1%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #25 D.Butler caught at TCU43, for 5 yards to the TCU37 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #7 C.Canada)Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
48.4%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 D.Butler rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU32 (#97 P.Oyewale), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
51.2%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at TCU30, for 3 yards to the TCU29 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-6
51.3%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush right for 6 yards loss to the TCU35 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+4
43.2%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU31 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
42.0%
(06:26) #92 E.Sanchez field goal attempt from 49 yards NO GOOD (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza), clock 06:21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24DOWNS15 plays · 63 yds · 4:2369% → 88%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
30.8%
(06:21) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU38 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
26.3%
(06:01) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU42 (#10 L.McCutchin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
26.0%
(05:22) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #81 C.Curtis caught at HOU47, for 15 yards to the HOU43 (#36 J.Garner; #8 K.Webb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
24.0%
(04:40) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the HOU37 (#8 K.Webb)Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
22.6%
(04:00) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU32 (#4 B.Mack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
19.7%
(03:17) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU30 (#12 S.Fotu)Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+16
17.3%
(02:36) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at HOU31, for 16 yards to the HOU14 (#36 J.Garner; #1 L.McCutchin Sr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
15.6%
(02:05) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU09 (#10 L.McCutchin; #15 W.James)Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
11.2%
(02:05) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU07 (#36 J.Garner; #10 L.McCutchin)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
11.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU05 (#4 B.Mack; #36 J.Garner)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-1
12.2%
(01:53) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard loss to the HOU06 (#10 L.McCutchin), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25MISSED FG8 plays · 74 yds · 1:0225% → 26%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
25.3%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short left to #80 J.Martin caught at HOU07, for 7 yards to the HOU13 (#1 A.Jordan; #22 J.Lester), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Offside declinedSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 13
0
26.0%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short middle to #9 T.Koziol thrown to HOU28Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+23
24.1%
(01:44) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short middle to #0 A.Thomas caught at HOU27, for 23 yards to the HOU36 (#0 Z.Chapman; #22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
27.1%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman rush right for 38 yards gain to the TCU26 (#1 A.Jordan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
36.9%
(01:22) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Martin thrown to TCU07 QB hurried by #19 K.Jackson. #19 K.Jackson injured on the playSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
34.0%
(01:18) Shotgun #44 D.Connors rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU23 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
29.0%
(00:59) Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 T.Koziol caught at TCU20, for 3 yards to the TCU20 (#2 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
26.2%
(00:50) #92 E.Sanchez field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #56 J.Garza), clock 00:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:34
Dean Connors 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
+20.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58
(02:05) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HOU07 (#36 J.Garner; #10 L.McCutchin)
-19.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:35
(00:46) Kneel down by #10 J.Hoover at TCU18 for loss of 2 yards
-19.3