Try the model
BYU

BYU 26 at Cincinnati 14

CIN
2025 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:52 · (09:58) #31 M.Fletcher punt 41 yards to the CIN50 fair catch by #11 P.Kingston at CIN50
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:39: (04:43) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:39 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +3.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:34: (06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU02, for 27 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +11.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: (08:29) #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +10.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:07: (14:10) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 14:07 — BYU win probability +7.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:37: (04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU03, for 19 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +19.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:08BYU 4th & 7 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52CIN 4th & 1 at BYU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−6.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:58BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:37CIN 4th & 6 at BYU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:26BYU 4th & 10 at CIN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56BYU 4th & 3 at CIN 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%−0.7
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07CIN 4th & 4 at BYU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:16CIN 4th & 6 at BYU 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:07BYU 4th & 8 at CIN 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−8.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:51BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:39BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:34CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:26BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:37CIN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:56BYU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.7%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:4756% → 55%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU29 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
44.2%
(14:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU30 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
44.4%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#64 K.Sfarcioc) 5 yards from BYU30 to BYU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
44.5%
(13:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU25, for 26 yards to the CIN49 (#9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
44.4%
(12:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep right to #2 C.Roberts thrown to CIN10Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
44.4%
(12:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN45 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-1
44.6%
(11:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at CIN50, for 1 yard loss to the CIN46 (#9 J.Sanks)Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
45.0%
(11:15) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 37 yards to the CIN09 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at CIN09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1145% → 45%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
45.0%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CIN07 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+2
45.1%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the CIN09 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
45.1%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #10 C.Goodie thrown to CIN22Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
45.0%
(09:58) #31 M.Fletcher punt 41 yards to the CIN50 fair catch by #11 P.Kingston at CIN50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:0555% → 59%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
50
+13
44.8%
(09:51) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 13 yards gain to the CIN37 (#7 L.Wilson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
44.9%
(09:23) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN36 (#49 J.Dingle; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+5
44.8%
(08:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #20 C.Ryan caught at CIN35, for 5 yards to the CIN31 (#7 L.Wilson; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+11
44.9%
(08:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at CIN20, for 11 yards to the CIN20 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
44.7%
(07:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at CIN14, for 7 yards to the CIN13 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-1
44.8%
(06:52) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CIN14 (#11 J.Golday; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+6
45.2%
(06:14) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN08 (#22 J.Thompson; #11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.9%
(05:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN06 (#49 J.Dingle; #36 X.Williams)Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
45.0%
(04:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Phillips thrown to CIN00Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.5%
(04:43) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:39 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:3943% → 43%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.6%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #6 E.Pryor caught at CIN23, for 6 yards to the CIN31 (#1 T.Alexander), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
43.1%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN34 (#55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
42.9%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN34 (#48 B.Schoonover; #2 J.Kabeya)Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
42.2%
(03:16) Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN37 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
42.8%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 28 yards gain to the BYU35 (#28 T.Wall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
44.0%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #2 B.Sorsby caught at BYU24, for 23 yards to the BYU12 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
44.0%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 I.Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the BYU11 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
44.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU11, for 1 yard to the BYU10 (#4 M.Bamba)Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
43.3%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU03 (#13 T.Akana). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BYU02 (#13 T.Akana), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
42.5%
(14:53) Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU03 (#57 K.Tanuvasa; #13 T.Akana), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4959% → 58%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
41.5%
(14:52) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU07 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
41.5%
(14:17) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU11 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 11
-3
41.6%
(13:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 3 yards loss to the BYU08 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
42.2%
(13:04) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 39 yards to the BYU47 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at BYU47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0943% → 43%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
43.2%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #8 N.Jennings caught at BYU40, for 20 yards to the BYU27 (#94 A.Purcell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
44.0%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at BYU23, for 4 yards to the BYU23, out of bounds at BYU23Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
44.8%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #6 E.Pryor thrown to BYU10Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
43.8%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #8 N.Jennings thrown to BYU16Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+42
42.8%
(11:41) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 11:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:0459% → 61%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
41.2%
(11:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep middle to #2 C.Roberts thrown to CIN34Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
41.3%
(11:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU29 (#5 C.Harrison), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+10
41.0%
(10:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU40, for 10 yards to the BYU39 (#9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
39.7%
(10:13) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU43 (#49 J.Dingle; #11 J.Golday)Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
39.1%
(09:36) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU40, for 10 yards to the CIN47 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
38.7%
(09:01) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN43 (#36 X.Williams)Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
38.5%
(08:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right thrown to CIN35 QB hurried by #49 J.DingleSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+16
38.7%
(08:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 10 yards gain (6) to the CIN33 (#8 O.Arnold; #36 X.Williams) PENALTY BYU Holding (#63 B.Mitchell) 10 yards from CIN37 to CIN47Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
37.6%
(07:51) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #19 T.Bachmeier thrown to CIN33 broken up by #31 S.ColemanSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+57
39.0%
(07:42) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 37 yards to the CIN10 #29 M.Covey return 57 yards to the BYU33 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:4544% → 55%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
43.5%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BYU27 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+27
54.6%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU02, for 27 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 4:3152% → 58%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
47.8%
(06:34) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 16 yards gain to the BYU41 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.1%
(05:56) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU46 (#11 J.Golday)Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
45.7%
(05:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU42, for 7 yards to the CIN47 (#5 C.Harrison), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
45.3%
(04:45) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Ryan thrown to CIN36 broken up by #9 J.SanksSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
45.6%
(04:39) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIN45 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+13
45.8%
(03:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #13 J.Phillips caught at CIN32, for 13 yards to the CIN32, out of bounds at CIN32, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - ""Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
44.7%
(03:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at CIN27, for 11 yards to the CIN21 (#9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
44.5%
(03:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #20 C.Ryan thrown to CIN12 broken up by #11 J.GoldaySimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
44.5%
(03:02) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 9 yards gain to the CIN12 (#0 M.McDoom; #9 J.Sanks)Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+6
45.2%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#71 I.Tupou) 6 yards from CIN12 to CIN18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
44.6%
(02:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #5 C.Hagen caught at CIN15, for 4 yards to the CIN14 (#46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
42.3%
(02:00) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 01:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10MISSED FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 1:4246% → 44%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.0%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at CIN20, for 7 yards to the CIN32 (#54 S.Esera)Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
48.1%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Jennings thrown to CIN35 QB hurried by #45 V.Po'uhaSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
45.8%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 9 yards gain to the CIN41 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
48.2%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN41 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
46.2%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at CIN35, for 5 yards to the CIN46 (#13 T.Akana), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
47.1%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN49 (#1 T.Alexander), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+5
47.1%
Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU46 (#55 J.Taumoepeau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.9%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #10 C.Goodie thrown to BYU40Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+18
45.5%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU30, for 18 yards to the BYU28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
47.5%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU24, for 6 yards to the BYU22 (#17 J.Kelly), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
47.4%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left thrown to BYU10 QB hurried by #16 I.GlaskerSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
45.6%
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep left to #8 N.Jennings thrown to BYU00Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
44.2%
(00:10) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 00:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
43.6%
(00:05) Kneel down by #47 B.Bachmeier at BYU20 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:0545% → 43%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN27 (#54 S.Esera)Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
45.0%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush right for 2 yards loss to the CIN25 (#54 S.Esera)Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass intercepted by #28 T.Wall at BYU34, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1857% → 73%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
42.6%
(13:50) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU47 (#46 A.Peek Jr.; #22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
41.1%
(13:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU50, for 6 yards to the CIN47 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
40.3%
(12:43) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN43 (#49 J.Dingle; #46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
41.0%
(11:56) Shotgun #5 C.Hagen rush left for 9 yards loss to the BYU48 (#11 J.Golday)Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+11
42.8%
(11:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at CIN49, for 11 yards to the CIN41 (#0 M.McDoom) PENALTY CIN Face Mask (#0 M.McDoom) 15 yards from CIN41 to CIN26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
39.5%
(11:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN20 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #8 O.Arnold)Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+5
39.4%
(10:24) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN15 (#4 M.Coleman; #49 J.Dingle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
38.0%
(09:48) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush right for 6 yards gain to the CIN09 (#46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
37.9%
(09:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN01 (#11 J.Golday; #46 A.Peek Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.8%
(08:30) #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #95 T.Ostler thrown to CIN00Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.1%
(08:29) #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0329% → 27%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
28.6%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at CIN30, for 19 yards to the CIN44 (#11 F.Satuala), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
30.2%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #4 C.Allen caught at CIN48, for 5 yards to the CIN49 (#0 E.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
30.7%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 5 yards gain to the BYU46 (#54 S.Esera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
31.0%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#10 C.Goodie) 5 yards from BYU46 to CIN49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+17
29.4%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #6 E.Pryor caught at BYU43, for 17 yards to the BYU34 (#0 E.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
32.3%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BYU35 (#94 A.Purcell)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
30.4%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #8 N.Jennings thrown to BYU20Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+5
28.1%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #11 J.Royer caught at BYU30, for 5 yards to the BYU30 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
26.6%
Stephen Rusnak 48 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:0175% → 86%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
25.2%
(05:11) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU33 (#49 J.Dingle; #55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
24.6%
(04:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #11 P.Kingston thrown to BYU40 broken up by #0 M.McDoomSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+4
25.1%
(04:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU30, for 4 yards to the BYU37 (#46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+5
25.4%
(03:49) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 0 yards to the BYU37 #29 M.Covey return 0 yards to the (#4 M.Bamba; #20 C.DeVries) PENALTY CIN Offside 5 yards from BYU37 to BYU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
22.8%
(03:40) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU49 (#11 J.Golday; #5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
22.2%
(03:05) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN47 (#0 M.McDoom; #31 S.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
21.7%
(02:21) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN43 (#49 J.Dingle; #16 J.White-McLain)Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+16
21.4%
(01:40) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 16 yards gain to the CIN27 (#36 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
20.3%
(00:52) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 11 yards gain to the CIN16 (#11 J.Golday; #36 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
20.1%
(00:07) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN15 (#55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
20.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN14 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
21.0%
(14:20) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Hagen thrown to CIN10 QB hurried by #49 J.DingleSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
13.6%
(14:10) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 14:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:3118% → 21%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.0%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #11 J.Royer caught at CIN23, for 8 yards to the CIN33 (#57 K.Tanuvasa; #16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
18.8%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #10 C.Goodie thrown to CIN38Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
18.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #0 I.Johnson thrown to CIN38Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
17.7%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #10 C.Goodie caught at CIN40, for 7 yards to the CIN40 (#4 M.Bamba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
18.7%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #10 C.Goodie caught at CIN34, for 4 yards to the CIN44 (#2 J.Kabeya)Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+14
18.7%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 14 yards gain to the BYU42 (#54 S.Esera), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
19.6%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #6 E.Pryor caught at BYU40, for 25 yards to the BYU17 (#11 F.Satuala), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
21.2%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU17, for 5 yards loss to the BYU22 fumbled by #4 C.Allen at BYU17 recovered by BYU #16 I.Glasker at BYU22, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU17, for 0 yards to the BYU17 (#15 T.Beasley))Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4391% → 93%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
8.8%
(10:40) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 21 yards gain to the BYU43 (#5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
7.4%
(09:52) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU46 (#90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
7.1%
(09:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU43, for 3 yards to the BYU49 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-5
6.8%
(08:34) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 5 yards loss to the BYU44 (#11 J.Golday; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
7.2%
(07:54) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 42 yards to the CIN14 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at CIN14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:0310% → 30%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
9.9%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at CIN26, for 20 yards to the CIN34 (#15 T.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
10.4%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN34 (#45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
10.2%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
9.3%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #8 N.Jennings for 9 yards to the CIN48 (#13 T.Akana), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
9.8%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep right to #29 M.Covey caught at BYU18, for 37 yards to the BYU15 (#17 J.Kelly), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
13.4%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Covey rush right for 1 yard gain to the BYU14 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
12.8%
(04:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #8 N.Jennings thrown to BYU00Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+5
10.7%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#74 J.Cotton) 5 yards from BYU14 to BYU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+19
29.8%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU03, for 19 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:2983% → 99%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.7%
(04:30) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 7 yards gain to the BYU32 (#55 I.Rogers; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
14.4%
(03:46) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU34 (#5 C.Harrison; #36 X.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
13.4%
(02:54) #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
10.8%
(02:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 7 yards gain to the BYU43 (#0 M.McDoom; #46 A.Peek Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
10.3%
(02:10) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BYU49 (#5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
5.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 8 yards gain to the CIN43 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+5
4.5%
(01:53) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN38 (#99 R.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
4.6%
(01:46) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN33 (#99 R.Jackson; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
1.3%
(01:02) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 33 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56, 1ST DOWN #47 B.Bachmeier pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:242% → 2%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
2.1%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at CIN10, for 4 yards to the CIN17 (#1 T.Alexander)Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
2.1%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Allen thrown to CIN20Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+9
2.1%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #3 T.Walker caught at CIN20, for 9 yards to the CIN26 (#17 J.Kelly; #16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
2.2%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby sacked for loss of 2 yards to the CIN24 (#1 T.Alexander)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:37
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU03, for 19 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+19.2
TD · Q2 6:34
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU02, for 27 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+11.1
TD · Q3 8:26
(08:29) #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com