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ARIZ

Arizona 30 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:36 · (05:40) #99 I.Lovison punt 41 yards to the CIN27 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at CIN27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense+4.7Pregame prior+8.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:20: Kedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — ARIZ win probability +28.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:00: Stephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal — CIN win probability +5.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:53: Gio Richardson 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick) — ARIZ win probability +18.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:38: (06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:38 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +32.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 1:34: (01:36) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 01:34 — ARIZ win probability +19.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:16ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:48ARIZ 4th & 9 at CIN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:59CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:06ARIZ 4th & 15 at CIN 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:11CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:00CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04ARIZ 4th & 1 at CIN 6, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%−2.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−10.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40ARIZ 4th & 3 at CIN 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:42ARIZ 4th & 7 at CIN 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00CIN 4th & 7 at ARIZ 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−15.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:43CIN 4th & 6 at ARIZ 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:56CIN 4th & 2 at ARIZ 13, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−8.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:34ARIZ 4th & 12 at CIN 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:09CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:03ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:07CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:34CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:20ARIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:53ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:38CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
64.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass intercepted by #8 J.Cole at CIN37 broken up by #43 D.Johnson #8 J.Cole return 11 yards to the CIN26 (#11 J.Royer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:3835% → 36%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
64.7%
(14:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush right for 1 yard loss to the CIN27 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+27
64.3%
Ismail Mahdi 27 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5064% → 65%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.4%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 5 yards gain to the CIN30 (#10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
64.2%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #3 T.Walker caught at CIN24, for 2 yards loss to the CIN28 (#43 D.Johnson; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
63.8%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #11 J.Royer caught at CIN36, for 8 yards to the CIN36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
63.7%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 39 yards gain to the ARZ25 (#2 T.Stukes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
63.9%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush right for 21 yards gain to the ARZ04 (#43 D.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
65.0%
Brendan Sorsby 4 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4436% → 36%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.4%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #4 K.Hutson caught at ARZ29, for 17 yards to the ARZ42 (#11 J.Golday), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.0%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARZ45 (#22 J.Thompson; #11 J.Golday)Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-2
63.9%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush right for 2 yards loss to the ARZ43 (#4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
64.2%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Hutson thrown to CIN36Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+10
64.5%
(09:27) #99 I.Lovison punt 41 yards to the CIN16 #29 M.Covey return 10 yards to the CIN26 (#41 A.Salerno)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:3064% → 68%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+54
64.4%
(09:15) Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 54 yards gain to the ARZ20 (#2 T.Stukes; #9 A.Garnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
65.1%
(08:33) Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 2 yards gain to the ARZ18 (#95 L.Palu)Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
65.1%
(07:59) Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush left for 9 yards gain to the ARZ09 (#2 T.Stukes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
65.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #3 T.Walker caught at ARZ15, for 2 yards to the ARZ07 (#44 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.9%
Jeff Caldwell 7 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3933% → 33%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
66.8%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARZ47, for 21 yards to the CIN47 (#5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
66.2%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #80 C.Barmore caught at CIN50, for 5 yards to the CIN42 (#31 S.Coleman; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+19
66.3%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #5 G.Richardson caught at CIN23, for 19 yards to the CIN23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
65.9%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN20 (#98 M.Parker; #55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
65.9%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #5 G.Richardson thrown to CIN10Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-2
66.4%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 2 yards to the CIN22 (#90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+50
67.3%
(03:48) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 03:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4168% → 67%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
67.9%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN28 (#10 M.Robinson; #99 M.Pese)Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
68.2%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN37 broken up by #9 A.GarnesSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
67.8%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep left to #4 C.Allen thrown to ARZ37Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
67.3%
(03:04) #31 M.Fletcher punt 37 yards to the ARZ35 fair catch by #15 L.Wysong at ARZ35 PENALTY CIN Kick Catch Interference (#29 M.Covey) 15 yards from ARZ35 to ARZ50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5133% → 31%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
50
+15
66.7%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep right to #4 K.Hutson thrown to CIN26 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#0 M.McDoom) 15 yards from ARZ50 to CIN35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
66.1%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN32 (#7 L.Wilson; #40 K.Burns)Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
65.8%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #3 K.Reescano caught at CIN30, for 9 yards to the CIN23 (#9 J.Sanks; #11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
65.8%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN20 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
65.9%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #80 C.Barmore caught at CIN19, for 1 yard to the CIN19, out of bounds at CIN19Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+8
66.7%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #4 K.Hutson caught at CIN11, for 8 yards to the CIN11 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
65.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 3 yards loss to the CIN14 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+3
66.1%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN11 (#17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+5
67.1%
(13:35) PENALTY ARZ False Start (#4 K.Hutson) 5 yards from CIN11 to CIN16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 15
OPP 16
0
67.9%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #11 C.Hunter thrown to CIN00Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
69.0%
(13:06) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD blocked by #7 L.Wilson (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 13:01, out of bounds at CIN00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:5569% → 69%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
69.1%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN21 (#43 D.Johnson; #95 L.Palu)Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
69.1%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 1 yard gain to the CIN22 (#0 D.McKnight; #16 R.Wilson)Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
68.7%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #4 C.Allen caught at CIN28, for 7 yards to the CIN29 (#2 T.Stukes). The previous play is under automatic review - "Penalty enforcement". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
68.4%
(11:13) No Huddle #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN31 (#0 D.McKnight; #16 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
69.9%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #9 J.Caldwell caught at CIN43, for 12 yards to the CIN43 (#9 A.Garnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
70.9%
PENALTY CIN False Start (#11 J.Royer) 5 yards from CIN43 to CIN38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+3
70.3%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush left for 3 yards gain to the CIN41 (#16 R.Wilson)Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
70.6%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Allen thrown to CIN37 broken up by #2 T.StukesSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+4
69.8%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at CIN40, for 4 yards to the CIN45 (#43 D.Johnson; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
69.3%
(09:06) #31 M.Fletcher punt 55 yards to the ARZ00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:1630% → 28%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
69.7%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #5 G.Richardson caught at ARZ24, for 4 yards to the ARZ24 (#44 M.Weedon)Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
69.6%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARZ28 (#0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
70.3%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush left for 4 yards gain to the ARZ32 (#4 M.Coleman; #44 M.Weedon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
69.9%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ARZ30 (#90 J.Hunt; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-11
70.7%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ARZ19 (#4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 23
OWN 19
+13
71.8%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #24 Q.Craig caught at ARZ19, for 13 yards to the ARZ32 (#6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
72.1%
(05:40) #99 I.Lovison punt 41 yards to the CIN27 fair catch by #29 M.Covey at CIN27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4272% → 71%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
71.9%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #8 N.Jennings thrown to CIN37 broken up by #9 A.GarnesSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
71.7%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CIN30 (#16 R.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
71.3%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass intercepted by #43 D.Johnson at ARZ36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:2930% → 33%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
70.4%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #6 J.Whatley caught at ARZ32, for 2 yards loss to the ARZ34 (#11 J.Golday; #16 J.White-McLain)Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-7
71.4%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ARZ27 (#98 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+25
72.5%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #4 K.Hutson caught at ARZ45, for 25 yards to the CIN48 (#11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
68.9%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush left for 7 yards gain to the CIN41 (#5 C.Harrison; #17 B.Simms III). #17 B.Simms III injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
69.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CIN33 (#4 M.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.6%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN30 (#49 J.Dingle; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
67.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush right for 15 yards gain to the CIN15 (#22 J.Thompson; #99 R.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
67.5%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN11 (#11 J.Golday; #5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+10
67.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Whatley thrown to CIN00 PENALTY ARZ Holding (#71 T.Bounds) 10 yards from CIN11 to CIN21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 16
OPP 21
0
69.2%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete deep middle to #4 K.Hutson thrown to CIN00Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 16
OPP 21
+15
71.2%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #80 C.Barmore caught at CIN12, for 15 yards to the CIN06 (#22 J.Thompson; #0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
67.5%
(00:05) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 00:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.5%
(00:00) Kneel down by #2 B.Sorsby at CIN24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1134% → 37%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ARZ34 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #11 J.Golday)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+26
64.3%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep right to #4 K.Hutson caught at CIN40, for 26 yards to the CIN40 (#0 M.McDoom), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
63.0%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #12 T.Spivey caught at CIN26, for 15 yards to the CIN25, out of bounds at CIN25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
61.5%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN20 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
61.5%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN18 (#49 J.Dingle; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
62.7%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Whatley thrown to CIN00Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+8
64.3%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #4 K.Hutson caught at CIN11, for 8 yards to the CIN10 (#11 J.Golday; #5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
62.2%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #24 Q.Craig caught at CIN14, for 3 yards to the CIN07 (#11 J.Golday; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.1%
(10:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN07 (#4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.5%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #12 T.Spivey thrown to CIN00Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
63.2%
(09:44) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 09:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4865% → 64%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.0%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CIN24 (#95 L.Palu; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
64.7%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN27 (#10 M.Robinson; #99 M.Pese)Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
63.4%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIN33 (#6 T.Brown; #16 R.Wilson)Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
63.8%
(08:00) #31 M.Fletcher punt 66 yards to the ARZ01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 2:2135% → 63%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
64.8%
(07:47) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ARZ07 (#36 X.Williams)Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+8
65.1%
(07:07) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARZ15 (#36 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
64.4%
(06:30) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARZ20 (#8 O.Arnold)Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
64.3%
(05:45) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short to #80 C.Barmore thrown to ARZ30Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+30
65.7%
(05:38) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep left to #11 C.Hunter caught at ARZ50, for 30 yards to the ARZ50 (#25 D.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
50
+50
37.1%
Kedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:1544% → 52%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.3%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 5 yards gain to the CIN30 (#2 T.Stukes), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
44.5%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN32 (#43 D.Johnson; #10 M.Robinson)Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
43.0%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIN39 (#0 D.McKnight; #2 T.Stukes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.7%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep middle to #8 N.Jennings thrown to ARZ23 broken up by #25 M.DansbySimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
44.4%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN40 (#6 T.Brown; #10 M.Robinson). #10 M.Robinson injured on the playSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+37
42.8%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep middle to #4 C.Allen caught at ARZ27, for 37 yards to the ARZ23 (#2 T.Stukes; #25 M.Dansby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
49.4%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush right for 2 yards gain to the ARZ21 (#2 T.Stukes)Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+9
49.1%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ARZ12 (#16 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
48.9%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Royer thrown to ARZ00Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
48.9%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush left for 3 yards gain to the ARZ09 (#2 T.Stukes)Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
46.4%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #4 C.Allen caught at ARZ11, for 0 yards to the ARZ09 (#12 G.Smith)Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+28
51.6%
Stephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5454% → 82%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
46.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete deep middle to #4 K.Hutson caught at ARZ46, for 29 yards to the CIN46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
41.9%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush left for 8 yards gain to the CIN38 (#7 L.Wilson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
41.1%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIN32 (#49 J.Dingle), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
39.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN28 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
38.9%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush right for 0 yards to the CIN28 (#11 J.Golday)Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+10
38.4%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short left to #80 C.Barmore caught at CIN18, for 10 yards to the CIN18 (#9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWN. #71 T.Bounds injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
36.0%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Hutson thrown to CIN00Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
36.4%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN15 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
18.0%
Gio Richardson 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0922% → 49%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.6%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby sacked for loss of 5 yards to the CIN20 (#0 D.McKnight)Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+33
17.3%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #9 J.Caldwell caught at CIN50, for 33 yards to the ARZ47 (#43 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
21.0%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ARZ40 (#12 G.Smith; #6 T.Brown)Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-3
21.5%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ARZ43 (#6 T.Brown; #11 J.Mann)Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
20.3%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #0 I.Johnson thrown to ARZ35Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+10
16.8%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #4 C.Allen caught at ARZ33, for 10 yards to the ARZ33 (#43 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
21.3%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #9 J.Caldwell caught at ARZ30, for 12 yards to the ARZ21 (#9 A.Garnes), 1ST DOWN. #9 A.Garnes injured on the playSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
21.4%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep right to #80 E.Jones thrown to ARZ00 QB hurried by #16 R.WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
20.9%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ARZ17 (#6 T.Brown)Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
19.5%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #9 J.Caldwell caught at ARZ13, for 4 yards to the ARZ13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+12
17.0%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #13 Z.Johnson caught at ARZ13, for 12 yards to the ARZ01 (#6 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.4%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:38 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FG
19 plays · 42 yds · 4:5767% → 93%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.1%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush right for 3 yards gain to the ARZ28 (#5 C.Harrison; #49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
29.9%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short middle to #4 K.Hutson thrown to ARZ45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#5 C.Harrison) 11 yard from ARZ28 to ARZ39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
27.3%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 1 yard gain to the ARZ40 (#2 D.Corleone)Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
27.3%
(05:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ARZ45 (#6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+13
26.0%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #15 L.Wysong caught at CIN49, for 13 yards to the CIN42 (#11 J.Golday), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
22.9%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN37 (#11 J.Golday; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
21.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 0 yards to the CIN37 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
19.2%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short right to #4 K.Hutson caught at CIN31, for 6 yards to the CIN31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
11.1%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIN25 (#5 C.Harrison)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-2
9.9%
(01:52) Shotgun #3 K.Reescano rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CIN27 (#22 J.Thompson; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+10
10.7%
(01:47) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN24 (#49 J.Dingle) PENALTY ARZ Holding (#63 A.Doost) 10 yards from CIN27 to CIN37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 16
OPP 37
+4
11.8%
(01:42) Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass complete short middle to #4 K.Hutson caught at CIN37, for 4 yards to the CIN33 (#11 J.Golday; #0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
6.6%
(01:36) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 01:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:2315% → 11%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
15.3%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Allen thrown to CIN28 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#9 J.Caldwell) 12 yards from CIN25 to CIN13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
14.2%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN25Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
13.8%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN24Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
13.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #29 M.Covey caught at CIN15, for 8 yards to the CIN21 (#43 D.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
10.7%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN45, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:2896% → 95%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
4.5%
(01:07) Kneel down by #1 N.Fifita at CIN22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
4.6%
(00:35) Kneel down by #1 N.Fifita at CIN23 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:38
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 Z.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ARZ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:38 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
+32.4
TD · Q3 5:20
Kedrick Reescano 50 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
-28.6
FG · Q4 1:34
(01:36) #19 M.Salgado-Medina field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno), clock 01:34
-19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com