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TCU

TCU 13 at BYU 44

BYU
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.9BYU 99.1%(13:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rushmiddle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 PENALTY TCUOffside declined #44 W.Ferrin kickattempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar,LS: #26 G.Grimes)AWAY 13 - HOME 37 · Q4 13:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:36 · (13:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 PENALTY TCU Offside declined #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense+31.7Score differential+20.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.3Garbage-time factor+11.3Pregame prior+1.1Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:17: (07:20) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 07:17 — TCU win probability +3.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:00: (06:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU35, for 43 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: (01:14) #13 J.Denman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers) — TCU win probability +13.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 4:08: (04:11) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 04:08 — BYU win probability +3.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:36: (13:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 PENALTY TCU Offside declined #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:27BYU 4th & 10 at TCU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15TCU 4th & 12 at BYU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:00TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:17TCU 4th & 5 at BYU 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−8.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:14TCU 4th & 1 at BYU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−5.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:13TCU 4th & 7 at BYU 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−8.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:49BYU 4th & 2 at TCU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−2.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:08BYU 4th & 8 at TCU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:36BYU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:35BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:14TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 13, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55BYU 4th & 4 at TCU 46, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:37TCU 4th & 11 at BYU 25, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:00BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:14TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:36BYU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:09BYU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 10:5455% → 61%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
55.3%
(13:12) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 3 yards gain to the BYU24 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
55.3%
(12:46) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU28 (#0 Z.Chapman; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
55.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 C.Roberts caught at BYU33, for 5 yards to the BYU33 (#21 B.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+4
55.4%
(11:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU36, for 4 yards to the BYU36 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+30
55.4%
(10:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep right to #11 P.Kingston caught at TCU34, for 30 yards to the TCU34 (#26 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.1%
(10:40) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at TCU34, for 0 yards to the TCU34 (#26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
56.1%
(10:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Roberts thrown to TCU25Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
55.8%
(10:33) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep middle to #11 P.Kingston thrown to TCU00Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
55.9%
(10:27) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 10:27Similar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
60.6%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 1 yard loss to the BYU32 (#95 M.Deal; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:0643% → 42%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.8%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to TCU29 broken up by #1 T.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.0%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU40, for 15 yards to the TCU40 (#1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.8%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush left for 0 yards to the TCU40 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
57.1%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at BYU41, for 19 yards to the BYU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
56.9%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV thrown to BYU37Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
57.0%
(08:59) No Huddle #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #3 M.Everhart thrown to BYU38 QB hurried by #16 I.GlaskerSimilar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-1
57.2%
(08:57) #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BYU43 (#13 T.Akana, #55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
58.1%
(08:22) #31 E.Craw punt 34 yards to the BYU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 5:4358% → 62%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
58.2%
(08:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #13 J.Phillips caught at BYU24, for 15 yards to the BYU24, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
58.6%
(07:35) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.4%
(06:43) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU41 (#33 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
60.6%
(06:05) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #18 R.Frischknecht caught at BYU48, for 7 yards to the BYU48 (#19 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
60.9%
(05:24) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #4 L.Martin caught at BYU50, for 12 yards to the TCU40 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
61.4%
(04:49) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 8 yards gain to the TCU32 (#7 C.Canada)Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
61.6%
(04:15) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU28 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
61.5%
(03:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at TCU29, for 9 yards to the TCU19 (#2 J.Johnson; #26 V.Glover)Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
61.8%
(02:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TCU11 (#21 B.Clark; #19 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
61.8%
(02:19) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush right for 11 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:13, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0739% → 38%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.2%
(02:13) Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush left for 6 yards gain to the TCU31 (#30 M.Alford)Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
60.9%
(01:49) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #1 E.McAlister thrown to TCU35 broken up by #0 E.JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
61.4%
(01:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU30 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
62.5%
(01:08) #31 E.Craw punt 45 yards to the BYU25 fair catch by #11 P.Kingston at BYU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3768% → 83%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.9%
(01:00) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU34 (#33 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
68.6%
(00:22) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BYU42 (#11 D.Deal; #26 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
70.3%
(14:20) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU44 (#21 B.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
71.1%
(13:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at TCU40, for 18 yards to the TCU26 (#7 C.Canada), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
71.7%
(13:01) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU24 (#97 P.Oyewale; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
72.1%
(12:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep left to #19 T.Bachmeier thrown to TCU00Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+10
71.5%
(12:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to TCU13 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#21 B.Clark) 10 yards from TCU24 to TCU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
72.2%
(12:12) Shotgun #19 T.Bachmeier rush left for 12 yards gain to the TCU02 (#7 C.Canada) PENALTY BYU Holding (#71 I.Jatta) 10 yards from TCU14 to TCU24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 20
OPP 24
-1
82.4%
(11:42) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU25 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 21
OPP 25
+8
83.2%
(11:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #21 E.Nawahine caught at TCU21, for 8 yards to the TCU17 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+17
82.9%
(10:20) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 17 yards gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:16, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:5324% → 30%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.9%
(10:16) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TCU20 (#57 K.Tanuvasa)Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
76.3%
(09:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU28, for 17 yards to the TCU37 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
75.4%
(09:20) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU43 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+47
74.9%
(08:57) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU46, for 47 yards to the BYU10 (#15 T.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.9%
(08:14) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to BYU00Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
73.0%
(08:08) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU07 (#54 S.Esera; #16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
73.9%
(07:28) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU05 (#30 M.Alford)Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
70.0%
(07:20) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 07:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5979% → 91%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
(07:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #13 J.Phillips thrown to BYU40 broken up by #22 J.LesterSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.2%
(06:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU45, for 21 yards to the BYU46 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
80.7%
(06:51) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at TCU43, for 11 yards to the TCU43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
90.7%
(06:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU35, for 43 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3915% → 21%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.4%
(06:00) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU28 (#3 R.Damuni; #30 M.Alford)Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
85.5%
(05:29) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU29, out of bounds at TCU29 PENALTY TCU Holding (#56 B.Taylor-Whitfield) 10 yards from TCU28 to TCU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+23
86.6%
(05:02) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU36, for 23 yards to the TCU41 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
86.0%
(04:37) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 J.Dwyer caught at TCU43, for 4 yards to the TCU45 (#4 M.Bamba)Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+16
86.6%
(04:10) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 16 yards gain to the BYU39 (#11 F.Satuala; #16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.7%
(03:29) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep left to #1 E.McAlister thrown to BYU00Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
87.0%
(03:24) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #1 E.McAlister caught at BYU25, for 17 yards to the BYU22 (#15 T.Beasley; #1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
86.6%
(02:46) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU15 (#16 I.Glasker; #30 M.Alford)Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
86.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 T.Battle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU13 (#30 M.Alford)Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
87.5%
(01:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush right for 0 yards to the BYU13 (#2 J.Kabeya)Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
78.9%
(01:14) #13 J.Denman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 1:0984% → 84%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.0%
(01:14) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush left for 1 yard loss to the BYU24 (#4 N.Obiazor), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
84.1%
(01:09) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at BYU32, for 9 yards to the BYU33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
83.8%
(00:47) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU36 (#0 Z.Chapman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
84.6%
(00:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at TCU48, for 16 yards to the TCU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.1%
(00:30) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Roberts thrown to TCU35Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
83.7%
(00:26) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #19 T.Bachmeier thrown to TCU30Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+13
84.8%
(00:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 C.Roberts caught at TCU40, for 13 yards to the TCU35 (#22 J.Lester), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
85.2%
(00:12) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #13 J.Phillips caught at TCU21, for 18 yards to the TCU17, out of bounds at TCU17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.2%
(00:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Roberts thrown to TCU00Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+35
83.6%
Will Ferrin 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:4118% → 18%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU30 (#45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
82.5%
(14:31) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU36 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
82.7%
(14:04) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TCU38 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
83.0%
(13:24) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 4 yards gain to the TCU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+20
84.0%
(12:47) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #1 E.McAlister caught at TCU50, for 20 yards to the BYU38 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
83.1%
(12:22) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush left for 4 yards gain to the BYU34 (#16 I.Glasker), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
83.0%
(11:36) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at BYU33, for 15 yards to the BYU19 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.4%
(11:03) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #1 E.McAlister thrown to BYU08Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
83.6%
(10:59) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU16 (#54 S.Esera; #7 L.Lutui)Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
84.7%
(10:21) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to BYU10 QB hurried by #7 L.LutuiSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
81.9%
(10:17) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 10:13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:5786% → 93%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.6%
(10:12) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 10 yards gain to the BYU35 (#1 A.Jordan; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
86.1%
(09:33) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 7 yards gain to the BYU42 (#26 V.Glover), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+7
86.8%
(09:01) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 7 yards gain to the BYU49 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
87.4%
(08:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TCU44 (#3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
88.5%
(07:43) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU43 (#95 M.Deal; #35 T.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
88.4%
(07:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep right to #2 C.Roberts thrown to TCU10Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+12
87.9%
(07:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at TCU32, for 12 yards to the TCU31 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
89.4%
(06:26) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU19, for 18 yards to the TCU13 (#4 N.Obiazor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
89.6%
(05:44) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TCU15 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
90.1%
(05:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Phillips thrown to TCU20 QB hurried by #97 P.OyewaleSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+4
89.8%
(04:50) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #4 L.Martin caught at TCU16, for 4 yards to the TCU11 (#19 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
92.7%
(04:11) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 04:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:479% → 6%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
(04:08) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #26 J.Payne thrown to TCU30Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
(04:05) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TCU30 (#30 M.Alford; #55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
94.2%
(03:18) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #11 F.Satuala at TCU44 QB hurried by #13 T.Akana #11 F.Satuala return 1 yard to the TCU43 (#1 E.McAlister), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2795% → 99%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.6%
(03:06) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU40 (#97 P.Oyewale)Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
94.9%
(02:34) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU37 (#33 M.Carroll)Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+15
95.1%
(01:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep right to #2 C.Roberts thrown to TCU17 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#20 J.McIver Jr.) 15 yards from TCU37 to TCU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:54) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep right to #2 C.Roberts caught at TCU17, for 20 yards to the TCU17, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference declined)Similar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
95.3%
(01:50) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush right for 0 yards to the TCU22 (#2 J.Johnson; #19 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
95.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU10, for 16 yards to the TCU06 (#2 J.Johnson; #33 M.Carroll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
95.6%
(00:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TCU02 (#22 J.Lester; #99 C.Lingren)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
95.9%
(14:57) #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU03 (#11 D.Deal)Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.2%
(14:20) #4 L.Martin rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU01 (#4 N.Obiazor)Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
(13:38) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:36 PENALTY TCU Offside declined #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.1%
(13:36) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TCU24 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.2%
(13:07) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #14 J.Manjack IV caught at TCU30, for 6 yards to the TCU30 (#4 M.Bamba)Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.1%
(12:34) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #82 D.Ezukanma thrown to TCU44Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.2%
(12:29) #31 E.Craw punt 44 yards to the BYU26 #11 P.Kingston return 11 yards to the BYU37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3599% → 99%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.3%
(12:16) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU39 (#2 J.Johnson; #3 K.Elarms-Orr)Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
99.4%
(11:32) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU43 (#11 D.Deal; #34 P.Cole Jr)Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
99.5%
(10:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Roberts thrown to BYU45 broken up by #95 M.DealSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.4%
(10:42) #19 F.Shurtz punt 41 yards to the TCU16 fair catch by #7 J.Dwyer at TCU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.2%
(10:34) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush right for 4 yards gain to the TCU20 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-7
99.3%
(10:05) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TCU13 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
99.4%
(09:27) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short middle to #1 E.McAlister thrown to TCU25Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
99.4%
(09:21) #31 E.Craw punt 50 yards to the BYU37 #11 P.Kingston return 0 yards to the BYU37, out of bounds at BYU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 6 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.5%
(09:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU42 (#1 A.Jordan), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
99.5%
(08:35) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU43 (#27 M.Teason)Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
99.6%
(07:53) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #19 T.Bachmeier caught at BYU44, for 5 yards to the BYU48 (#33 M.Carroll), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.6%
(07:09) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU49 (#38 G.Jackson)Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+3
99.6%
(06:24) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU48 (#22 J.Lester), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
99.7%
(05:44) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU47, for 2 yards to the TCU46 (#33 M.Carroll; #27 M.Teason)Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-11
99.7%
(05:00) #19 F.Shurtz rush middle for 11 yards loss to the BYU43 fumbled by #19 F.Shurtz at BYU43 recovered by TCU #24 A.Helm at BYU43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.7%
(04:42) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU42 (#18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-68
100.0%
(04:23) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass intercepted by #28 T.Wall at BYU32 #28 T.Wall return 68 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:09 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
(04:08) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TCU37 (#25 T.Alfrey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
(03:38) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU40 (#13 T.Akana)Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
100.0%
(03:06) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TCU48 (#5 N.Taumoepeau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
100.0%
(02:35) Shotgun #13 J.Denman rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU43 (#25 T.Alfrey)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU39 (#35 J.Kalama), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
100.0%
(01:35) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep left to #7 J.Dwyer thrown to BYU02 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (#31 K.Doe) 15 yards from BYU39 to BYU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
100.0%
(01:30) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU17, out of bounds at BYU17Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
100.0%
(01:23) Shotgun #21 N.Palmer rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU15 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
100.0%
(00:52) #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU15 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
PENALTY TCU False Start 5 yards from BYU15 to BYU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+5
100.0%
PENALTY TCU False Start (#51 C.Deery) 5 yards from BYU20 to BYU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 11
OPP 25
-6
100.0%
(00:41) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BYU31 (#5 N.Taumoepeau), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
100.0%
(00:36) Kneel down by BYU at BYU30 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:14
(01:14) #13 J.Denman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:14, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers)
-13.4
TD · Q2 6:00
(06:13) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #20 C.Ryan caught at TCU35, for 43 yards to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
+10.1
FG · Q2 7:17
(07:20) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #31 E.Craw, LS: #47 A.Bowers), clock 07:17
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com