Try the model
BYU

BYU 41 at Iowa State 27

ISU
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.3ISU 64.8%(10:54) #44 W.Ferrin field goalattempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes),clock 10:52AWAY 20 - HOME 24 · Q3 10:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:52 · (10:54) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 10:52
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+1.6Score differential+0.6Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:52: (02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52 #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen) — ISU win probability +9.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: (00:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU00, for 12 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:25 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +10.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:33: (04:36) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +23.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:47: (01:49) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen), clock 01:47 — ISU win probability +5.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: 4th down).
  5. TD · Q4 14:21: (14:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU01, for 27 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:21, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes) — BYU win probability +23.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:05ISU 4th & 7 at BYU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:18BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:59BYU 4th & 13 at ISU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:32BYU 4th & 2 at ISU 14, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:52BYU 4th & 8 at ISU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−9.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:01ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:40BYU 4th & 1 at ISU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:45BYU 4th & 2 at ISU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−9.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:47ISU 4th & 25 at BYU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−4.4
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−11.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:16BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 21, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 2.7 ptsWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%−2.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:31ISU 4th & 4 at BYU 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:14ISU 4th & 10 at BYU 23, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−4.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:19BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:14ISU 4th & 26 at BYU 26, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:51ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
60.2%
Brett Eskildsen 75 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2540% → 40%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.3%
(14:44) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU33 (#26 C.Bacon; #31 M.Neal)Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+14
60.5%
(14:08) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at BYU47, for 14 yards to the BYU47, out of bounds at BYU47, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
60.6%
(13:35) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the ISU49 (#7 T.Bell; #19 T.James), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+45
60.8%
(13:01) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU33, for 45 yards to the ISU04 (#24 Q.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.9%
(12:17) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:13 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:5960% → 62%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
(12:12) Shotgun #4 X.Townsend rush left for 0 yards to the ISU25 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
60.3%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 C.Alexander caught at ISU30, for 11 yards to the ISU36 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
60.5%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush left for 8 yards gain to the ISU44 (#28 T.Wall; #1 T.Alexander)Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-1
60.9%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush right for 1 yard loss to the ISU43 (#11 F.Satuala)Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
60.8%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #84 G.Burkle caught at BYU43, for 15 yards to the BYU42 (#28 T.Wall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
61.0%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at BYU33, for 9 yards to the BYU33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+12
61.3%
(09:31) #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #82 T.Moore caught at BYU23, for 12 yards to the BYU21 (#11 F.Satuala), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
61.3%
(08:55) Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush left for 3 yards gain to the BYU18 (#11 F.Satuala; #45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
61.4%
(08:17) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #26 C.Hansen thrown to BYU16 QB hurried by #16 I.GlaskerSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
61.1%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Flora thrown to BYU05Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
61.5%
(08:08) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen), clock 08:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:2939% → 38%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
61.4%
(08:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BYU09 (#23 W.McLaughlin)Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+4
61.7%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#20 C.Ryan) 4 yards from BYU09 to BYU05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 22
OWN 5
+3
61.8%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#11 P.Kingston) 3 yards from BYU05 to BYU02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 25
OWN 2
+3
61.8%
(06:47) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU05 (#26 C.Bacon; #47 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 22
OWN 5
+12
62.2%
(06:03) Shotgun #11 P.Kingston rush left for 12 yards gain to the BYU17 (#47 K.Ebel), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
62.4%
(05:29) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 43 yards to the ISU40 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at ISU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:1862% → 68%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
62.0%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 C.Alexander caught at ISU43, for 6 yards to the ISU46 (#7 L.Lutui), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+16
62.4%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush left for 16 yards gain to the BYU38 (#28 T.Wall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
62.6%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush left for 2 yards gain to the BYU36 (#17 J.Kelly), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
62.7%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #10 C.Brown caught at BYU30, for 6 yards to the BYU30 (#0 E.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
62.8%
(03:18) No Huddle #26 C.Hansen rush left for 3 yards gain to the BYU27 (#30 M.Alford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
63.2%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush right for 13 yards gain to the BYU14 (#28 T.Wall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
63.2%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU07 (#90 H.Clegg; #25 T.Alfrey)Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
63.4%
(01:43) No Huddle #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU02 (#28 T.Wall; #55 J.Taumoepeau), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.7%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:00 #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 3:2633% → 32%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
66.6%
(00:53) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU29 (#56 A.Carnell)Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
66.5%
(00:19) Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush right for 3 yards gain to the BYU32 (#7 T.Bell), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+12
67.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU43, for 12 yards to the BYU44 (#2 J.Patton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.4%
(14:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right thrown to ISU45Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.4%
(14:21) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right thrown to BYU45 QB hurried by #47 K.Ebel and #58 T.McDonoughSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
67.2%
(14:03) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU46 (#47 K.Ebel) PENALTY BYU Holding (#75 A.Gentry) 10 yards from BYU44 to BYU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+4
68.1%
(13:35) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BYU38 (#2 J.Patton; #58 T.McDonough)Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+10
68.4%
(13:06) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #20 C.Ryan caught at BYU41, for 10 yards to the BYU48 (#31 M.Neal; #47 K.Ebel)Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+10
68.4%
(12:26) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 42 yards to the ISU10 #21 A.Flora return 10 yards to the ISU20 (#18 A.Kaufusi) PENALTY BYU Illegal Formation 5 yards from ISU20 to ISU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:0168% → 71%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
68.1%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush left for 28 yards gain to the BYU47 (#11 F.Satuala), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
69.5%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #18 B.Brahmer caught at BYU28, for 24 yards to the BYU23 (#25 T.Alfrey; #11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
70.5%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #7 L.Lutui at BYU12 broken up by #57 K.Tanuvasa #7 L.Lutui return 15 yards to the BYU27 (#84 G.Burkle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:5731% → 30%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.0%
(11:09) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 0 yards to the BYU27 (#23 W.McLaughlin; #58 T.McDonough)Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
69.4%
(10:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to BYU25Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+45
69.8%
(10:34) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU49, for 45 yards to the ISU28 (#31 M.Neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.4%
(09:57) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #20 C.DeVries thrown to ISU25 broken up by #95 D.OrangeSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
67.6%
(09:52) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ISU31 (#23 W.McLaughlin)Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
71.4%
(09:06) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to ISU19 QB hurried by #88 I.EzeoguSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+50
69.8%
(09:02) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 08:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:5069% → 83%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.8%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #26 C.Hansen caught at ISU16, for 3 yards to the ISU23 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
69.7%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush right for 8 yards gain to the ISU31 (#7 L.Lutui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
70.2%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU32 (#55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
70.4%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #84 G.Burkle caught at ISU33, for 6 yards to the ISU38 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+9
71.2%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #84 G.Burkle caught at ISU44, for 9 yards to the ISU47 (#17 J.Kelly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
72.2%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BYU39 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
72.7%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush left for 5 yards gain to the BYU34 (#30 M.Alford), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
73.5%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush left for 8 yards gain to the BYU26 (#7 L.Lutui; #11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
73.8%
(03:39) Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU24 (#30 M.Alford)Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
74.1%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 X.Townsend caught at BYU18, for 7 yards to the BYU17 (#30 M.Alford). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+14
73.3%
(02:24) No Huddle #26 C.Hansen rush right for 14 yards gain to the BYU03 (#28 T.Wall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.8%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52 #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 1:1421% → 33%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
78.8%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #21 E.Nawahine caught at BYU40, for 1 yard to the BYU41 (#31 M.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
79.1%
(01:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #21 E.Nawahine caught at BYU38, for 5 yards to the BYU46 (#2 J.Patton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+15
78.3%
(01:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU42, for 15 yards to the ISU39 (#24 Q.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
76.9%
(01:27) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #19 T.Bachmeier caught at ISU22, for 17 yards to the ISU22, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
75.9%
(01:14) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush right for 8 yards gain to the ISU14 (#24 Q.Taylor)Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
76.0%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to ISU05 broken up by #26 C.BaconSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
78.3%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #20 C.DeVries thrown to ISU12 broken up by #24 Q.TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+7
78.5%
(00:38) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush left for 7 yards gain to the ISU07 (#22 J.Klosterman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.2%
(00:29) No Huddle #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
77.2%
PENALTY BYU False Start (#2 C.Roberts) 5 yards from ISU07 to ISU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
67.1%
(00:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU00, for 12 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:25 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
70.6%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ISU19 (#94 A.Purcell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:5930% → 35%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.6%
(14:59) #11 P.Kingston rush left for 0 yards to the BYU35 (#31 M.Neal)Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
70.1%
(14:22) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #12 P.Rex thrown to BYU33Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+27
71.4%
(14:18) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep right to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU38, for 27 yards to the ISU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
67.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU19, for 19 yards to the ISU19 (#31 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
65.9%
(13:05) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Roberts thrown to ISU07Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
66.5%
(13:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU13, for 7 yards to the ISU12 (#19 T.James), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+3
67.8%
(12:36) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ISU09 (#19 T.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
66.2%
(12:00) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU10, for 3 yards to the ISU06 (#18 D.Coffey), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
66.3%
(11:34) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush left for 2 yards loss to the ISU08 (#47 K.Ebel; #26 C.Bacon)Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.1%
(10:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #11 P.Kingston thrown to ISU00 broken up by #25 J.PattersonSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+27
64.8%
(10:54) #44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes), clock 10:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4368% → 67%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
67.9%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ISU16 (#45 V.Po'uha)Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+10
67.5%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #84 G.Burkle caught at ISU13, for 10 yards to the ISU26 (#17 J.Kelly), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
66.7%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush left for 5 yards gain to the ISU31 (#5 N.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
66.9%
(09:13) #80 T.Perkins punt 48 yards to the BYU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:1933% → 59%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
66.8%
(08:59) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at BYU24, for 21 yards to the BYU42 (#47 K.Ebel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.7%
(08:32) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to ISU44 QB hurried by #53 Z.HawkSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
65.3%
(08:24) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ISU49 (#19 T.James; #31 M.Neal)Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
63.2%
(07:46) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 0 yards to the ISU49 (#95 D.Orange; #14 C.Willich). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
64.8%
#47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
62.9%
(06:20) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ISU33 (#18 D.Coffey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
61.6%
(05:46) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete deep right to #11 P.Kingston thrown to ISU10 broken up by #2 J.PattonSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
62.0%
(05:41) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #19 T.Bachmeier caught at ISU32, for 8 yards to the ISU25 (#13 C.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
62.6%
(05:01) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short middle to #19 T.Bachmeier thrown to ISU19 QB hurried by #95 D.OrangeSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+7
64.4%
(04:49) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU18, for 7 yards to the ISU18 (#7 T.Bell), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ISU Face Mask (#7 T.Bell) 9 yards from ISU18 to ISU09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
41.3%
(04:36) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3350% → 57%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
49.8%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 65 yards gain to the BYU10 (#1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
56.3%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU10 (#55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.6%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush right for 4 yards gain to the BYU06, out of bounds at BYU06 PENALTY ISU Holding (#51 B.Black) 10 yards from BYU10 to BYU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
55.5%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #0 C.Sowell thrown to BYU00Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
-5
50.7%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 5 yards loss to the BYU25 fumbled by #3 R.Becht at BYU25 recovered by ISU #3 R.Becht at BYU25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 25
+43
56.7%
(01:49) #97 K.Konrardy field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen), clock 01:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1145% → 42%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
54.6%
(01:39) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 2 yards gain to the BYU18 (#31 M.Neal; #47 K.Ebel)Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
55.0%
(01:02) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #20 C.Ryan caught at BYU17, for 3 yards to the BYU21 (#7 T.Bell)Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
56.1%
(00:19) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass incomplete short right to #12 P.Rex thrown to BYU26 broken up by #19 T.JamesSimilar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 21
-2
57.8%
(00:16) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 44 yards to the ISU35 Iowa State return for loss of 2 yards to the ISU35 fumbled by Iowa State at ISU35 recovered by BYU #4 M.Bamba at ISU33, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:4352% → 76%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
48.2%
(00:04) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #12 P.Rex caught at ISU40, for 2 yards to the ISU31 (#19 T.James)Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
48.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short right to #2 C.Roberts caught at ISU27, for 4 yards to the ISU27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
24.4%
(14:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU01, for 27 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:21, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3334% → 17%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.0%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ISU36 (#55 J.Taumoepeau)Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-40
16.5%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #11 F.Satuala at ISU40 #11 F.Satuala return 40 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:40 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 5:1617% → 9%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.6%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Hansen rush right for 0 yards to the ISU35 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
15.6%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #84 G.Burkle caught at ISU38, for 4 yards to the ISU39 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+14
16.1%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #18 B.Brahmer caught at ISU44, for 14 yards to the BYU47 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
17.2%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BYU44 (#30 M.Alford; #16 I.Glasker)Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
16.8%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #10 C.Brown caught at BYU35, for 9 yards to the BYU35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
17.6%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BYU28 (#17 J.Kelly)Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
15.4%
(10:30) Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right thrown to BYU20 QB hurried by #90 H.CleggSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-1
14.3%
(10:23) Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush left for 1 yard loss to the BYU29 (#17 J.Kelly; #30 M.Alford)Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+6
12.9%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #18 B.Brahmer caught at BYU24, for 6 yards to the BYU23 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
12.0%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 A.Sama rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU23 (#7 L.Lutui)Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
10.7%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #9 B.Eskildsen thrown to BYU18 broken up by #0 E.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
9.8%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #21 A.Flora thrown to BYU03Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 10
OPP 23
0
9.3%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #9 B.Eskildsen thrown to BYU00 broken up by #1 T.Alexander, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4593% → 95%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
7.2%
(08:12) Shotgun #12 P.Rex rush right for 5 yards gain to the BYU28 (#26 C.Bacon)Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+12
7.0%
(07:37) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BYU40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
5.9%
(06:53) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU41 (#31 M.Neal; #2 J.Patton)Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
5.5%
(06:17) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BYU42 (#58 T.McDonough)Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
5.5%
(05:39) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short left to #11 P.Kingston caught at BYU39, for 3 yards to the BYU45 (#7 T.Bell) PENALTY BYU Illegal Block in Back declinedSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
5.4%
(05:23) #35 S.Vander Haar punt 39 yards to the ISU16 fair catch by #21 A.Flora at ISU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21INT
19 plays · 58 yds · 3:526% → 3%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
6.1%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #26 C.Hansen caught at ISU11, for 5 yards to the ISU21 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+17
5.7%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 X.Townsend caught at ISU35, for 17 yards to the ISU38 (#28 T.Wall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
4.7%
PENALTY ISU False Start (#0 C.Sowell) 5 yards from ISU38 to ISU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+11
4.3%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #6 E.Green caught at ISU38, for 11 yards to the ISU44 (#0 E.Johnson)Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+15
4.7%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #18 B.Brahmer caught at ISU46, for 15 yards to the BYU41 (#16 I.Glasker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
4.8%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #6 E.Green caught at BYU26, for 15 yards to the BYU26 (#11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
4.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BYU29 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 13
OPP 29
0
4.4%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep right thrown to BYU00 QB hurried by #17 J.KellySimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+5
4.1%
PENALTY ISU False Start (#4 X.Townsend) 5 yards from BYU29 to BYU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+10
4.1%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #0 C.Sowell thrown to BYU12 PENALTY BYU Holding (#4 M.Bamba) 10 yards from BYU34 to BYU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
4.6%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer caught at BYU11, for 16 yards to the BYU08 (#28 T.Wall; #11 F.Satuala), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+10
4.6%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:22 PENALTY ISU Holding (#18 B.Brahmer) 10 yards from BYU08 to BYU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
-14
4.0%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 14 yards to the BYU32 (#48 B.Schoonover)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 32
+6
3.4%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #6 E.Green caught at BYU26, for 6 yards to the BYU26 (#18 A.Kaufusi)Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
0
3.1%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to BYU08 broken up by #7 L.LutuiSimilar
Q4 1:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
-10
2.9%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #0 E.Johnson at BYU05 QB hurried by #13 T.Akana #0 E.Johnson return 10 yards to the BYU15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2098% → 99%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
1.6%
(01:14) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BYU24 (#2 J.Patton)Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
1.4%
(00:27) Shotgun #21 E.Nawahine rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU24 (#53 Z.Hawk)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:21
(14:25) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete deep left to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU01, for 27 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:21, 1ST DOWN #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
-23.9
TD · Q3 4:33
(04:36) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:33 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
-23.1
TD · Q2 0:25
(00:28) Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier pass complete short middle to #11 P.Kingston caught at ISU00, for 12 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:25 #44 W.Ferrin kick attempt good (H: #35 S.Vander Haar, LS: #26 G.Grimes)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com