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BAY

Baylor 20 at Cincinnati 41

CIN
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:07 · (14:12) #31 M.Fletcher punt 44 yards to the BAY17 fair catch by #34 J.Cameron at BAY17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+6.4Score differential+3.4Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Pregame prior+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:22: (01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:22, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +6.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: (02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BAY00, for 6 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:34 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein) — CIN win probability +8.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:16: (00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #1 M.Trigg caught at CIN00, for 6 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:16, 1ST DOWN #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed — BAY win probability +10.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:36: (10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at CIN00, for 9 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declined #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:34: (13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:34 #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 1 yard from CIN03 to CIN02. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Face Mask (#2 D.Corleone). NO PLAY #23 M.Turner rush attempt Successful — BAY win probability +15.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:12BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:07CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:01BAY 4th & 3 at CIN 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−2.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:42CIN 4th & 10 at BAY 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:43CIN 4th & 1 at BAY 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−2.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−9.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:16BAY 4th & 3 at CIN 6, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:19BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:15CIN 4th & 13 at BAY 18, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:26BAY 4th & 2 at midfield, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54BAY 4th & 1 at CIN 24, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−1.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:40CIN 4th & 1 at BAY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−3.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:38BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 42, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 4:5955% → 58%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
54.5%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #4 C.Allen thrown to CIN34Similar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
54.5%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 4 yards gain to the CIN23 (#3 D.Bobby; #25 L.Thornton Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+15
54.5%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN47 PENALTY BAY Pass Interference (#25 L.Thornton Jr.) 15 yards from CIN23 to CIN38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
54.6%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #4 C.Allen caught at CIN41, for 11 yards to the CIN49 (#38 J.Redding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
54.8%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 9 yards gain to the BAY42 (#3 D.Bobby; #50 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
54.9%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BAY37, for 5 yards to the BAY37, out of bounds at BAY37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
55.1%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 I.Johnson rush left for 15 yards gain to the BAY22 (#3 D.Bobby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
55.3%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #6 E.Pryor caught at BAY23, for 1 yard to the BAY21 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
55.4%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BAY15 (#45 K.Reed; #92 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
55.4%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY10 (#0 J.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
55.7%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 9 yards gain to the BAY01 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.6%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:52, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:2943% → 41%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
56.9%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BAY21 (#6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
57.1%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BAY24 (#6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
57.6%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY28 (#11 J.Golday; #9 J.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
57.7%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush right for 3 yards gain to the BAY31 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
57.8%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY33 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-4
58.3%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BAY25 (#11 J.Golday, #90 J.Hunt). #2 D.Corleone injured on the playSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+2
59.2%
(06:19) #94 P.Williams punt 43 yards to the CIN32 #29 M.Covey return 2 yards to the CIN34 (#24 M.Gifford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:4059% → 68%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
58.9%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 10 yards gain to the CIN44 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
59.8%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BAY48 (#3 D.Bobby; #17 T.Turner)Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
60.2%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #4 C.Allen thrown to BAY35Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+12
59.9%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 12 yards gain to the BAY36 (#3 D.Bobby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
60.6%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #11 J.Royer caught at BAY30, for 12 yards to the BAY24 (#3 D.Bobby; #33 D.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
61.1%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY22 (#0 J.Marshall; #93 D.Kalu)Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
61.3%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BAY15 (#41 K.Burns)Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
60.9%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 4 yards gain to the BAY11 (#33 D.Coleman; #38 J.Redding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
61.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush right for 6 yards gain to the BAY05 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
67.7%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:22, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2635% → 34%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.3%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short middle to #6 A.Hawkins thrown to BAY44Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.5%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #7 B.Washington caught at BAY20, for 3 yards to the BAY28 (#7 L.Wilson; #44 M.Weedon). #44 M.Weedon injured on the playSimilar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
65.8%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Trigg thrown to BAY39 broken up by #9 J.SanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1768% → 68%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.0%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIN44 (#3 D.Bobby; #38 J.Redding)Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-1
68.7%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush right for 1 yard loss to the CIN43 (#0 J.Marshall)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
68.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN44 (#0 J.Marshall; #33 D.Coleman)Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+5
68.3%
PENALTY CIN Delay Of Game 5 yards from CIN44 to CIN39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
68.0%
(14:12) #31 M.Fletcher punt 44 yards to the BAY17 fair catch by #34 J.Cameron at BAY17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:0033% → 30%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
66.7%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY21 (#22 J.Thompson; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
67.4%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY25 (#11 J.Golday; #49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+2
67.7%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY27 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
68.0%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at BAY34, for 12 yards to the BAY39 (#8 O.Arnold), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
68.1%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #34 J.Cameron caught at BAY43, for 4 yards to the BAY43, End Of Play PENALTY BAY Holding (#1 M.Trigg) 10 yards from BAY39 to BAY29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+15
68.8%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #1 M.Trigg caught at BAY30, for 15 yards to the BAY44 (#49 J.Dingle)Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
68.1%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY49 (#6 T.Gola-Callard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
68.6%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN49 (#4 M.Coleman; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
69.1%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete deep left to #6 A.Hawkins thrown to CIN14Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+5
69.9%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #16 K.Prentice caught at BAY45, for 5 yards to the CIN44 (#5 C.Harrison; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
70.0%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short right to #22 C.Knighten thrown to CIN43, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1374% → 78%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.8%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN50 (#41 K.Burns)Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 5
50
+8
74.1%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #0 I.Johnson caught at BAY43, for 8 yards to the BAY42 (#8 C.Jenkins; #41 K.Burns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
73.4%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep right to #3 T.Walker thrown to BAY15Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
73.7%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #3 T.Walker caught at BAY48, for 9 yards to the BAY33 (#11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+5
72.1%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY28 (#38 J.Redding; #11 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
73.0%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Walker thrown to BAY31 QB hurried by #32 E.WinstonSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
73.0%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #6 E.Pryor thrown to BAY24Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
72.5%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush left for 0 yards to the BAY28 (#21 B.Onu)Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
78.4%
(05:46) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 05:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #6 A.Hawkins caught at BAY31, for 4 yards to the BAY29 fumbled by #6 A.Hawkins at BAY32 forced by #7 L.Wilson recovered by CIN #7 L.Wilson at BAY29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:5580% → 90%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
79.9%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY25 (#45 K.Reed)Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
80.5%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 4 yards gain to the BAY21 (#9 C.Lanz; #11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
80.4%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 1 yard gain to the BAY20 (#45 K.Reed), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 2 yards gain to the BAY19 (#45 K.Reed), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
80.3%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY18 (#40 K.Jordan; #38 J.Redding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
81.8%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BAY06 (#45 K.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
89.9%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BAY00, for 6 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:34 #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:1112% → 19%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.6%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Washington rush right for 4 yards gain to the BAY29 (#36 X.Williams)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
87.2%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #16 K.Prentice caught at BAY27, for 3 yards to the BAY32 (#36 X.Williams)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
87.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at BAY48, for 16 yards to the BAY48 (#8 O.Arnold), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
87.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #6 A.Hawkins caught at CIN38, for 15 yards to the CIN37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
86.3%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #7 B.Washington caught at CIN43, for 12 yards to the CIN25 (#11 J.Golday), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
85.4%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIN23, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+10
86.4%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #23 M.Turner caught at CIN30, for 10 yards to the CIN13 (#22 J.Thompson; #5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
86.6%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at CIN16, for 3 yards loss to the CIN16 (#22 J.Thompson)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+4
87.7%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN12 (#98 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+6
88.2%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN06 (#31 S.Coleman)Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
80.7%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #1 M.Trigg caught at CIN00, for 6 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:16, 1ST DOWN #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.8%
(00:12) Kneel down by #2 B.Sorsby at CIN24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:1317% → 25%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
83.4%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY25 (#49 J.Dingle; #6 T.Gola-Callard)Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
83.2%
(14:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BAY32 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.2%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete deep middle to #2 K.Wilson thrown to CIN27 broken up by #5 C.HarrisonSimilar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
84.0%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush left for 3 yards gain to the BAY35 (#49 J.Dingle; #46 A.Peek Jr.)Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+4
84.2%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #83 J.Porter caught at BAY36, for 4 yards to the BAY39 (#9 J.Sanks)Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+9
84.5%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #1 M.Trigg caught at BAY45, for 9 yards to the BAY48 (#22 J.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
84.4%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN49 (#9 J.Sanks; #55 I.Rogers)Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
84.3%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete deep middle to #2 K.Wilson thrown to CIN06Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+40
85.0%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush left for 40 yards gain to the CIN09 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #17 B.Simms III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.9%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at CIN00, for 9 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declined #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:1381% → 90%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.8%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN31 (#59 D.Tezino; #0 J.Marshall)Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
81.6%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to CIN49Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
80.8%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BAY50, for 19 yards to the CIN50 (#38 J.Redding), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
50
0
83.1%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to BAY17 broken up by #25 L.Thornton Jr.Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
50
+7
83.0%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BAY43 (#11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+10
82.3%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #8 N.Jennings caught at BAY40, for 10 yards to the BAY33 (#93 D.Kalu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
83.2%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BAY30 (#0 J.Marshall; #11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
83.5%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short left to #6 E.Pryor thrown to BAY33Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+15
82.5%
(07:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Caldwell thrown to BAY15 PENALTY BAY Pass Interference (#8 C.Jenkins) 15 yards from BAY30 to BAY15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.2%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush left for 7 yards gain to the BAY08 (#3 D.Bobby), out of bounds PENALTY CIN Holding offsetting CIN Holding offsetting BAY Illegal Use Of Hands offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.4%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass incomplete short middle to #4 C.Allen thrown to BAY00 PENALTY CIN Face Mask (#50 E.Tengesdahl) 15 yards from BAY15 to BAY30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 25
OPP 30
+2
83.8%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY28 (#11 K.Thomas; #16 K.Simpkins)Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 23
OPP 28
+3
83.9%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BAY25 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+7
83.7%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at BAY30, for 7 yards to the BAY18 (#41 K.Burns)Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
89.5%
(05:17) #99 S.Rusnak field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein), clock 05:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 6:3314% → 27%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.4%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY27 (#49 J.Dingle; #4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
86.9%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete deep right to #34 J.Cameron thrown to CIN47 broken up by #0 M.McDoom PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#0 M.McDoom) 15 yards from BAY27 to BAY42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.0%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY44 (#90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
86.5%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #23 M.Turner caught at BAY40, for 4 yards to the BAY48 (#0 M.McDoom)Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
86.5%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY50 (#49 J.Dingle; #2 D.Corleone)Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 2
50
+4
88.9%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIN46 (#5 C.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
88.8%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #6 A.Hawkins caught at CIN47, for 8 yards to the CIN38 (#36 X.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
88.3%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Knighten rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CIN33 (#17 B.Simms III; #11 J.Golday), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.8%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short middle to #85 M.Klopfenstein thrown to CIN29Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
88.1%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN30 (#55 I.Rogers; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
89.6%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 M.Turner rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIN24 (#6 T.Gola-Callard; #17 B.Simms III)Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+7
89.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 7 yards gain to the CIN17 (#17 B.Simms III; #25 D.James), 1ST DOWN. #23 M.Turner injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
88.4%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short right to #34 J.Cameron thrown to CIN00 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 15 yards from CIN17 to CIN02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.5%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Knighten rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN01 (#2 D.Corleone; #90 J.Hunt)Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:34 #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 1 yard from CIN03 to CIN02. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Face Mask (#2 D.Corleone). NO PLAY #23 M.Turner rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1483% → 97%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.2%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIN32 (#40 K.Jordan; #25 L.Thornton Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
84.5%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CIN35 (#0 J.Marshall) PENALTY CIN Holding (#53 G.Gerhardt) 10 yards from CIN32 to CIN22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
83.5%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush right for 4 yards gain to the CIN26 (#45 K.Reed; #25 L.Thornton Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
83.1%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #8 N.Jennings caught at CIN39, for 13 yards to the CIN39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
86.8%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Pryor rush right for 12 yards gain to the BAY49 (#11 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.8%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY45 (#0 J.Marshall; #9 C.Lanz)Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
88.6%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 I.Johnson rush right for 9 yards gain to the BAY36 (#33 D.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
89.0%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BAY33 (#0 J.Marshall; #50 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
89.8%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #3 T.Walker caught at BAY38, for 2 yards to the BAY31 (#42 J.Evans)Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
89.3%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush left for 4 yards gain to the BAY27 (#25 L.Thornton Jr.; #93 D.Kalu)Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
89.1%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY25 (#42 J.Evans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
91.6%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BAY23 (#40 K.Jordan)Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
97.0%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby rush middle for 23 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:13, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:3097% → 99%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
97.2%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 4 yards gain to the BAY13 (#11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
97.5%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAY08 (#59 D.Tezino)Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short right to #0 I.Johnson caught at BAY00, for 8 yards to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:26, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Knighten rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY46 (#4 M.Coleman)Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
99.4%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BAY37 (#4 M.Coleman, #98 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+5
99.4%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short left to #23 M.Turner caught at BAY34, for 5 yards to the BAY42 (#5 C.Harrison), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass incomplete short middle to #1 M.Trigg thrown to BAY49 broken up by #11 J.Golday, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.5%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the BAY42 (#11 K.Thomas; #9 C.Lanz)Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.6%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 11 yards gain to the BAY31 (#11 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BAY27 (#11 K.Thomas; #50 M.Fobbs-White)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush right for 3 yards gain to the BAY24 (#11 K.Thomas)Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+7
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 7 yards gain to the BAY17 (#3 D.Bobby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.6%
Kneel down by #2 B.Sorsby at BAY19 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:34
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:34 #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 1 yard from CIN03 to CIN02. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (#8 O.Arnold) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed PENALTY CIN Face Mask (#2 D.Corleone). NO PLAY #23 M.Turner rush attempt Successful
-15.9
TD · Q2 0:16
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short middle to #1 M.Trigg caught at CIN00, for 6 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:16, 1ST DOWN #13 S.Robertson rush attempt failed
-10.6
TD · Q3 10:36
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Robertson pass complete short right to #34 J.Cameron caught at CIN00, for 9 yards to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference declined #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) #13 S.Robertson pass attempt failed PENALTY CIN Offside (#16 J.White-McLain) 2 yards from CIN03 to CIN01. NO PLAY
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com