YardLine - College football win probability

WVU

West Virginia 13 at UCF 45

UCF

2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium

Speed4x

Win probability · UCF

modelUCF aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey play

What moved it - hover a play below

Q3 10:40 · Keli Lawson 32 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)

WVU has the ball

+21

WVU trailing by 21

+10

Blowout context favors the defense

Market gave UCF a 68% pregame chance

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

WVU · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 11 yds

Q1 15:00

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q1 14:53

(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Fox Jr.,Scotty pass incomplete deep right to Weimer,Jeff thrown to UCF40 broken up by Jackson,Antione PENALTY UCF Pass Interference (Jackson,Antione) 15 yards from WVU25 to WVU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

-1.8

Q1 14:48

Cyncir Bowers run for 1 yd to the WVU 41

-1.0

Q1 14:15

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVU 43

-0.8

Q1 13:59

Scotty Fox Jr. sacked by RJ Jackson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the WVU 36

0.0

Q1 13:18

Oliver Straw punt for 61 yds

+1.1

UCF · Drive 2TD · 6 plays · 97 yds

Q1 13:09

Myles Montgomery run for 39 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

+2.8

Q1 12:39

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 12 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q1 12:25

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black

+1.0

Q1 12:07

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.

0.0

Q1 11:58

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 6 yds to the WVU 40

-0.2

Q1 11:33

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 40 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

+10.0

WVU · Drive 3DOWNS · 11 plays · 33 yds

Q1 11:33

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 64 yds

-0.1

Q1 11:22

Rodney Gallagher III run for 8 yds to the WVU 43

-2.7

Q1 11:04

Cyncir Bowers run for 4 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down

-0.6

Q1 10:43

Cyncir Bowers run for 4 yds to the UCF 49

-0.4

Q1 10:14

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q1 9:46

Rodney Gallagher III run for 9 yds to the UCF 33

-0.5

Q1 9:24

Cyncir Bowers run for 2 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q1 8:55

Scotty Fox Jr. sacked by Cole Kozlowski for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 37

-0.3

Q1 8:26

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 3 yds to the UCF 34

0.0

Q1 8:09

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

Q1 8:01

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 32

+0.5

UCF · Drive 4TD · 8 plays · 68 yds

Q1 7:54

Jaden Nixon run for 8 yds to the UCF 40

+4.0

Q1 7:30

Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 4 yds to the UCF 36

+0.4

Q1 6:54

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 25 yds to the WVU 39 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q1 6:19

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.

+0.6

Q1 6:15

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the WVU 39

0.0

Q1 5:38

Duane Thomas Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVU 34

-0.1

Q1 5:02

Timeout West Virginia, clock 05:02

-2.1

Q1 4:54

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 34 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

+12.0

WVU · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · 10 yds

Q1 4:54

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+0.1

Q1 4:43

Jarod Bowie run for 13 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST down

-3.8

Q1 4:29

Cyncir Bowers run for 4 yds to the WVU 42

0.0

Q1 3:58

Scotty Fox Jr. sacked by Derrick LeBlanc for a loss of 3 yards to the WVU 39

0.0

Q1 3:26

Scotty Fox Jr. sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 4 yards to the WVU 35

0.0

Q1 2:48

Oliver Straw punt for 47 yds , Duane Thomas Jr. returns for 12 yds to the UCF 30

0.0

UCF · Drive 6DOWNS · 4 plays · 9 yds

Q1 2:35

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 6 yds to the UCF 36

+3.8

Q1 2:17

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the UCF 38

0.0

Q1 1:34

Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the UCF 39

-0.1

Q1 0:55

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the UCF 39

-0.2

WVU · Drive 7TD · 5 plays · 39 yds

Q1 0:46

Khalil Wilkins run for 16 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down

-4.0

Q1 0:28

Khalil Wilkins run for 11 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST down

-0.4

Q1 0:00

Cyncir Bowers run for 3 yds to the UCF 9

0.0

Q2 14:55

Diore Hubbard run for 3 yds to the UCF 6

0.0

Q2 14:19

Khalil Wilkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)

-11.4

UCF · Drive 8DOWNS · 13 plays · 65 yds

Q2 14:15

Ethan Head kickoff for 59 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 16 yds to the UCF 22

+1.9

Q2 14:02

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 7 yds to the UCF 29

+1.6

Q2 13:43

Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 13:03

Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 3 yds to the UCF 36

0.0

Q2 12:26

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 17 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q2 11:53

Davi Belfort run for 3 yds to the WVU 44

+1.7

Q2 11:16

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 7 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 10:13

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete

+0.1

Q2 10:02

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 15 yds to the WVU 22 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 9:28

Davi Belfort run for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 24

0.0

Q2 8:40

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Carl Jenkins Jr. for 11 yds to the WVU 13

0.0

Q2 8:23

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the WVU 13

-0.1

Q2 7:44

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the WVU 13

+0.4

WVU · Drive 9PUNT · 4 plays · 4 yds

Q2 7:36

Khalil Wilkins run for 3 yds to the WVU 16

-3.3

Q2 7:13

Cyncir Bowers run for 1 yd to the WVU 17

0.0

Q2 6:28

Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Jarod Bowie

0.0

Q2 6:21

Oliver Straw punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 44

0.0

UCF · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds

Q2 6:09

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 3 yds to the UCF 47

+3.3

Q2 5:43

Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the WVU 48

+0.3

Q2 5:01

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Domercant

-0.1

Q2 4:53

Anthony Venneri punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 8

-0.4

WVU · Drive 11PUNT · 8 plays · 17 yds

Q2 4:46

Jarod Bowie run for 2 yds to the WVU 10

-3.0

Q2 4:22

Khalil Wilkins run for 10 yds to the WVU 20 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 3:45

Khalil Wilkins run for 5 yds to the WVU 25

0.0

Q2 3:12

Diore Hubbard run for 2 yds to the WVU 27

0.0

Q2 2:47

(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Wilkins,Khalil rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WVU34 (Lawrence,Malachi) PENALTY WVU Holding (Livingston,Landen) 10 yards from WVU27 to WVU17. NO PLAY.

-0.1

Q2 2:21

Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Diore Hubbard for 8 yds to the WVU 25

0.0

Q2 2:20

Timeout UCF, clock 02:20

+0.7

Q2 2:11

Oliver Straw punt for 38 yds , Antione Jackson returns for no gain to the UCF 37

0.0

UCF · Drive 12PUNT · 4 plays · -12 yds

Q2 2:03

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 3 yds to the UCF 40

+1.9

Q2 1:57

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.

+0.1

Q2 1:52

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Domercant

-0.2

Q2 1:41

Anthony Venneri punt for 43 yds

-0.4

WVU · Drive 13MISSED FG · 16 plays · 42 yds

Q2 1:35

Khalil Wilkins run for 3 yds to the WVU 35

-1.5

Q2 1:07

Timeout UCF, clock 01:07

0.0

Q2 1:04

Khalil Wilkins run for 1 yd to the WVU 36

0.0

Q2 1:02

Khalil Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 35

0.0

Q2 1:02

Timeout UCF, clock 01:02

0.0

Q2 0:56

Oliver Straw run for 12 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 0:56

(00:56) PENALTY WVU False Start 5 yards from WVU47 to WVU42. NO PLAY.

-1.0

Q2 0:49

Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Rodney Gallagher III

+0.4

Q2 0:40

Khalil Wilkins run for 1 yd to the WVU 43

-0.1

Q2 0:19

Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Nyjalik Kelly) to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q2 0:12

Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST down

-1.0

Q2 0:12

Timeout West Virginia, clock 00:12

0.0

Q2 0:05

Khalil Wilkins run for 3 yds to the UCF 26

0.0

Q2 0:00

Kade Hensley 44 yd FG MISSED

0.0

Q3 14:55

Ethan Head kickoff for 63 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 14 yds to the UCF 49 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (14 Yards) to the UCF 16

+1.3

Q3 14:55

Ethan Head kickoff for 63 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 14 yds to the UCF 49 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the UCF 8

0.0

UCF · Drive 14TD · 10 plays · 92 yds

Q3 14:52

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black

+3.8

Q3 14:47

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 5 yds to the UCF 13

0.0

Q3 14:23

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 21 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 13:46

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Waden Charles for 19 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q3 13:32

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.

+0.6

Q3 13:24

Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the WVU 46

+0.6

Q3 12:51

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Caleb Rollerson for 20 yds to the WVU 26 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q3 12:36

(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Tayven pass incomplete deep middle to Rollerson,Caleb thrown to WVU00 broken up by Perry,Fred PENALTY WVU Offside (Robinson,Jimmori) 5 yards from WVU26 to WVU21. NO PLAY.

+0.4

Q3 12:30

Jaden Nixon run for 9 yds to the WVU 12 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 11:53

Jaden Nixon run for 12 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

+9.7

WVU · Drive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD · 4 plays · 7 yds

Q3 11:53

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds

-0.2

Q3 11:47

Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 10 yds to the WVU 35 for a 1ST down

-2.4

Q3 11:24

Khalil Wilkins run for 2 yds to the WVU 37

0.0

Q3 10:50

West Virginia Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined

+0.3

WVU · Drive 16PUNT · 10 plays · 17 yds

Q3 10:40

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+5.8

Q3 10:32

Cyncir Bowers run for 5 yds to the WVU 30

+0.7

Q3 9:55

Cyncir Bowers run for 5 yds to the WVU 35 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 9:40

Cyncir Bowers run for 1 yd to the WVU 36

0.0

Q3 9:09

(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Wilkins,Khalil pass intercepted by Marshall,Braeden at UCF40 Marshall,Braeden return 16 yards to the WVU44 (Bowie,Jarod) PENALTY UCF Holding (Bell,DJ) 10 yards from WVU36 to WVU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q3 8:59

PENALTY WVU False Start (Makane'ole,Kimo) 5 yards from WVU46 to WVU41. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q3 8:36

Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Diore Hubbard for 1 yd to the WVU 42

0.0

Q3 8:10

Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Rodney Gallagher III

0.0

Q3 8:07

Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

Q3 7:55

Oliver Straw punt for 54 yds

0.0

UCF · Drive 17INT · 5 plays · 45 yds

Q3 7:46

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 9 yds to the UCF 13

-0.8

Q3 7:10

Myles Montgomery run for 31 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

+0.2

Q3 6:31

Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the WVU 48

0.0

Q3 6:01

Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 49

+0.1

Q3 5:21

Tayven Jackson pass intercepted Jason Chambers return for 24 yds to the WVU 38

+0.1

WVU · Drive 18PUNT · 9 plays · 9 yds

Q3 5:14

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

+0.5

Q3 5:07

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVU 43

0.0

Q3 4:40

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Cyncir Bowers for 4 yds to the WVU 47

+0.2

Q3 4:25

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 4:07

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

Q3 4:02

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

Q3 3:58

(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Fox Jr.,Scotty rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UCF44 (Carter,Lewis) PENALTY WVU Holding (Young Bear,Walter) 10 yards from WVU50 to WVU40. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q3 3:41

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Cyncir Bowers for 7 yds to the WVU 47

0.0

Q3 3:01

Oliver Straw punt for 46 yds , Bredell Richardson returns for 8 yds to the UCF 15

0.0

UCF · Drive 19TD · 2 plays · 85 yds

Q3 2:54

Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the UCF 17

-0.5

Q3 2:12

Jaden Nixon 83 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)

+1.2

WVU · Drive 20DOWNS · 10 plays · 25 yds

Q3 2:11

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 63 yds

0.0

Q3 2:04

Scotty Fox Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVU 40

-0.4

Q3 1:50

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Justin Smith-Brown

0.0

Q3 1:40

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Justin Smith-Brown for 8 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 1:19

Cyncir Bowers run for 8 yds to the UCF 44

0.0

Q3 0:58

Cyncir Bowers run for 3 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 0:18

Diore Hubbard run for 3 yds to the UCF 38

0.0

Q3 0:00

Scotty Fox Jr. sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 40

0.0

Q4 14:58

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

Q4 14:53

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn

0.0

UCF · Drive 21PUNT · 6 plays · 12 yds

Q4 14:47

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 14 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST down

+0.4

Q4 14:16

Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the WVU 44

0.0

Q4 13:51

UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tayven Jackson) to the WVU 45

0.0

Q4 13:43

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 2 yds to the WVU 43

0.0

Q4 13:09

PENALTY UCF Delay Of Game 5 yards from WVU43 to WVU48. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q4 12:39

Anthony Venneri punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 15

0.0

WVU · Drive 22PUNT · 4 plays · -6 yds

Q4 12:29

Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 1 yd to the WVU 16

-0.4

Q4 11:59

Khalil Wilkins run for 1 yd to the WVU 17

0.0

Q4 11:23

Khalil Wilkins sacked by John Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the WVU 9 Khalil Wilkins fumbled, recovered by WVU Kimo Makane'ole , return for 0 yards

0.0

Q4 11:02

Oliver Straw punt for 49 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 26 yds to the WVU 32

0.0

UCF · Drive 23FG · 4 plays · -1 yds

Q4 10:53

Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the WVU 32

+0.4

Q4 10:21

Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 33

0.0

Q4 9:46

Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles Montgomery

+0.1

Q4 9:40

Noe Ruelas 51 Yd Field Goal

0.0

WVU · Drive 24PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds

Q4 9:40

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q4 9:32

Diore Hubbard run for 6 yds to the WVU 31

-0.5

Q4 9:11

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Jarod Bowie

0.0

Q4 9:06

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Jarod Bowie

0.0

Q4 8:59

Oliver Straw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 28

0.0

UCF · Drive 25TD · 11 plays · 72 yds

Q4 8:47

Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the UCF 31

+0.5

Q4 8:17

Agyeman Addae run for 8 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 7:43

Davi Belfort run for 6 yds to the UCF 45

0.0

Q4 7:05

Davi Belfort pass incomplete to Thomas Wadsworth

0.0

Q4 6:56

Davi Belfort run for 13 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 6:20

Agyeman Addae run for 2 yds to the WVU 40

0.0

Q4 5:36

Davi Belfort pass complete to Caleb Rollerson for 39 yds to the WVU 1 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 5:11

Davi Belfort pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the WVU 5

0.0

Q4 4:49

Timeout UCF, clock 04:49

-0.1

Q4 4:43

Caleb Rollerson run for a loss of 5 yards to the WVU 10

0.0

Q4 4:17

Davi Belfort 10 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)

+0.5

WVU · Drive 26PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds

Q4 4:17

Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q4 4:11

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Diore Hubbard for 6 yds to the WVU 31

-0.2

Q4 3:51

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Justin Smith-Brown

0.0

Q4 3:47

Scotty Fox Jr. pass incomplete to Rodney Gallagher III

0.0

Q4 3:36

Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds

0.0

UCF · Drive 27INT · 3 plays · 4 yds

Q4 3:30

Agyeman Addae run for 3 yds to the UCF 27

+0.2

Q4 2:45

Agyeman Addae run for 1 yd to the UCF 28

0.0

Q4 2:21

Brock Hansel pass intercepted Jordan Walker return for 31 yds to the UCF 1

0.0

WVU · Drive 28TD · 3 plays · 1 yds

Q4 2:00

run for 19 yds to the UCF 20 fumbled, recovered by WVU Scotty Fox Jr.

-0.3

Q4 1:52

Scotty Fox Jr. pass complete to Justin Smith-Brown for 19 yds to the UCF 1

0.0

Q4 1:46

Diore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley PAT failed)

-0.7

UCF · Drive 29END OF GAME · 5 plays · 18 yds

Q4 1:46

Ethan Head kickoff for 63 yds

+0.1

Q4 1:35

Brock Hansel pass complete to Tyler Wrenn for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

+0.4

Q4 1:01

Tyler Wrenn run for 8 yds to the UCF 44

0.0

Q4 0:30

Brock Hansel pass incomplete to Jordyn Bridgewater

0.0

Q4 0:00

(00:27) Kneel down by UCF at UCF43 for loss of 1 yard.

0.0

WVU · Drive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD · 1 play · 7 yds

Q3 10:40

Keli Lawson 32 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)

-1.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q1 4:54

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 34 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

+12

TD · Q2 14:19

Khalil Wilkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)

-11.4

TD · Q1 11:33

Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 40 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)

+10