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BAY

Baylor 36 at TCU 42

TCU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.1TCU 35.0%Connor Hawkins 41 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 14 · Q4 14:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:55 · Connor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsTime remainingPregame priorHome team on offenseTwo-minute warning
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Defense timeouts−16.0Offense timeouts−15.0Time remaining+3.7Pregame prior+1.7Home team on offense+1.0Two-minute warning+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:53: Bryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick) — BAY win probability +6.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 10:59: DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick) — TCU win probability +8.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q2 6:10: Kevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick) — BAY win probability +2.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 13:46: Trent Battle 65 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick) — TCU win probability +2.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 3:08: Keaton Thomas 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +5.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:21BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:35BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:23TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:46BAY 4th & 6 at TCU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:03BAY 4th & 5 at TCU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:56TCU 4th & 17 at BAY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:04BAY 4th & 15 at TCU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:27TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:55BAY 4th & 7 at TCU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−13.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:52BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:15TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 24, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:20BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 33, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−2.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00TCU 4th & 20 at TCU 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−9.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:30BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:53BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:59TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:10TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3143% → 44%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
56.8%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q1 14:21
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+9
56.2%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0556% → 53%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
55.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 9 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
55.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to DJ RogersSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
55.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
54.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+4
54.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 4 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
53.2%
Easton Black punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2347% → 49%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
52.4%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Devean DealSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
51.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Jamel JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
51.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 1 yd to the BAY 38 Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Kaden Sieracki) to the BAY 38Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
51.4%
Palmer Williams punt for 57 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for no gain to the TCU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5951% → 48%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+27
50.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
50.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
49.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 8 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
50.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+5
48.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
48.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer, broken up by Caldra WillifordSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
47.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 6:2252% → 67%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
47.8%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 11Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+41
47.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 41 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
45.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
44.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson Washington, broken up by Devean DealSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+1
44.8%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+7
44.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
43.2%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+4
42.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+15
43.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Channing Canada) to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
41.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.4%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.6%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.2%
Bryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5234% → 39%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
33.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 8 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
33.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
34.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
33.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
33.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
32.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+4
33.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.8%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister, broken up by LeVar Thornton Jr.Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
32.6%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+18
31.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 9 yds to the BAY 17 Baylor Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Turner) to the BAY 8Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.3%
DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:4865% → 66%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Caden KnightenSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh Cameron, broken up by Vernon GloverSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
35.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
33.2%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
32.9%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the BAY 47Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
32.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
33.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0637% → 33%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
37.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 7 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
36.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
38.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-10
37.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the BAY 32 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Taylor-Whitfield) to the BAY 42Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
34.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
33.3%
Ethan Craw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
32.1%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 17 Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by TCU Paul OyewaleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2738% → 35%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
38.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the BAY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.4%
Kevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:5659% → 56%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
40.9%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
40.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Jevon McIver Jr.Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
41.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Kaleb Elarms-OrrSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+15
42.2%
TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamel Johnson) to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
39.5%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
38.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+13
38.4%
Michael Turner run for 13 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
37.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
37.0%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the TCU 20 Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Sidney Fugar) to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+5
40.4%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
42.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
43.9%
Connor Hawkins 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 1:4724% → 26%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Major EverhartSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
24.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
23.5%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer Baylor Penalty, off-side (Matthew Fobbs-White) to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-5
24.4%
TCU Penalty, false start (Quinton Harris) to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+13
23.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 13 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
25.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
25.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
25.3%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+41
26.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 41 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
27.8%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the BAY 6Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.7%
Josh Hoover run for no gain to the BAY 6Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.3%
Jordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
24.1%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the BAY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1335% → 39%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
34.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 6 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+9
35.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
36.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 40 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
39.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the BAY 17Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+11
38.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the BAY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
39.8%
Chase Curtis run for 3 yds to the BAY 3Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.4%
Ka'Morreun Pimpton 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:5764% → 70%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
34.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
35.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 6 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
33.4%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
33.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
32.6%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
32.5%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
32.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
31.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 9 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
31.3%
Michael Turner run for 2 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-62
30.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for no gain to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
30.5%
Jadon Porter 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1128% → 25%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
27.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 24Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
25.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+2
24.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 19 , Josh Cameron returns for 2 yds to the BAY 26 Baylor Penalty, illegal block (Caden Jenkins) to the BAY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:1166% → 65%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
33.8%
Michael Turner run for 12 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
34.7%
Michael Turner run for 2 yds to the BAY 33Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
35.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
32.3%
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
31.9%
Caden Knighten run for 9 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole Wilson, broken up by Vernon GloverSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
31.5%
Michael Turner run for 8 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
32.2%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
31.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
31.5%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
32.9%
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
35.0%
Connor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0927% → 30%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
27.2%
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
29.5%
Trent Battle 65 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5268% → 62%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe Prentice for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bud Clark) to the BAY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
33.6%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
32.5%
Michael Turner run for 1 yd to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-7
32.4%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Zach Chapman and Devean Deal for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 39Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
37.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2832% → 33%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
31.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
36.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
34.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister TCU Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (Yards) to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
32.8%
Ethan Craw punt for 60 yds , Josh Cameron returns for no gain to the BAY 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4065% → 62%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
34.7%
Caden Knighten run for 12 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
36.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+1
36.8%
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the BAY 33Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
38.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 2:1048% → 55%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
47.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 12 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
48.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the BAY 18Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
55.8%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the BAY 14Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
55.0%
Kevorian Barnes 14 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2947% → 45%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
47.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+1
45.7%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+14
44.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 40 , Josh Cameron returns for 14 yds to the BAY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:4851% → 50%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
48.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+36
47.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 36 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-9
47.6%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Bud Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 19
OPP 27
0
50.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Vernon Glover return for no gain to the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
56.2%
Keaton Thomas 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0462% → 30%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
61.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 47 TCU Penalty, personal foul (Coltin Deery) to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+2
57.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+2
56.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 21
OWN 42
+1
55.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 20
OWN 43
0
30.0%
Ethan Craw punt for 50 yds , Josh Cameron returns for no gain to the BAY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 1:1770% → 73%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
30.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the BAY 12Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
30.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
33.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+11
34.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
30.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
30.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
25.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
25.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
26.7%
Kole Wilson 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:1074% → 66%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
26.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Koltin Sieracki) to the BAY 42Similar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
34.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Namdi Obiazor return for no gain to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
52.3%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+47.7
TD · Q2 10:59
DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q1 0:53
Bryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com