BAY
Baylor 36 at TCU 42
TCU2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:11 · Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48
TCU has the ball
+19
Blowout context favors the offense
+9
offense timeouts not recorded for this play
−4
defense timeouts not recorded for this play
−5
0:11 left in regulation
+2
TCU leading by 6
+2
Market gave TCU a 60% pregame chance
−1
Pregame market line was available
+0
2023+ clock rules
+0
Ball at own 48
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
BAY · Drive 1PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 15:00
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds , Kole Wilson return for 24 yds to the BAY 24
0.0
Q1 14:52
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 28
-2.6
Q1 14:32
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins
-0.5
Q1 14:27
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
0.0
Q1 14:21
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for 9 yds to the TCU 30
0.0
TCU · Drive 2PUNT · 7 plays · 17 yds
Q1 14:09
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 9 yds to the TCU 39
+3.3
Q1 13:41
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to DJ Rogers
+0.6
Q1 13:36
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 13:09
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
+0.5
Q1 13:06
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 43
0.0
Q1 12:43
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 4 yds to the TCU 47
-0.2
Q1 12:04
Easton Black punt for 28 yds
-0.3
BAY · Drive 3PUNT · 6 plays · 13 yds
Q1 11:58
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 31
-3.6
Q1 11:35
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:13
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Devean Deal
0.0
Q1 11:11
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Jamel Johnson
0.0
Q1 11:04
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 1 yd to the BAY 38 Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Kaden Sieracki) to the BAY 38
0.0
Q1 10:35
Palmer Williams punt for 57 yds , Jordan Dwyer returns for no gain to the TCU 4
-0.5
TCU · Drive 4PUNT · 7 plays · 40 yds
Q1 10:22
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down
+3.8
Q1 9:52
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 35
0.0
Q1 9:18
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 8 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 8:41
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 39
+0.4
Q1 8:07
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TCU 44
-0.2
Q1 7:32
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer, broken up by Caldra Williford
0.0
Q1 7:23
Ethan Craw punt for 48 yds
-0.3
BAY · Drive 5TD · 14 plays · 92 yds
Q1 7:15
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 11
-3.6
Q1 6:47
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 41 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:14
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 3 yds to the TCU 45
-0.6
Q1 5:25
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson Washington, broken up by Devean Deal
0.0
Q1 5:24
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 44
0.0
Q1 4:46
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 4:16
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Bryson Washington
-0.7
Q1 4:15
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the TCU 36
0.0
Q1 3:42
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the TCU 32
0.0
Q1 3:03
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Channing Canada) to the TCU 17 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q1 2:57
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST down
-0.6
Q1 2:10
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the TCU 2
-0.1
Q1 1:34
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 1
-0.2
Q1 0:53
Bryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)
-10.5
TCU · Drive 6TD · 13 plays · 75 yds
Q1 0:53
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.9
Q1 0:51
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 29
+1.8
Q1 0:25
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 8 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:58
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds to the TCU 43
-0.1
Q2 14:37
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down
+1.8
Q2 14:12
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the BAY 45
+0.7
Q2 13:41
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 13:22
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the BAY 34
+0.5
Q2 12:48
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:17
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister, broken up by LeVar Thornton Jr.
0.0
Q2 12:09
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the BAY 26
0.0
Q2 11:29
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 9 yds to the BAY 17 Baylor Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Turner) to the BAY 8
+1.3
Q2 10:59
DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+16.7
BAY · Drive 7DOWNS · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q2 10:59
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.2
Q2 10:57
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Caden Knighten
-3.6
Q2 10:52
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh Cameron, broken up by Vernon Glover
0.0
Q2 10:42
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 16 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:20
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the BAY 46
-1.1
Q2 9:53
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the BAY 47
-0.7
Q2 9:12
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe Prentice
0.0
Q2 9:09
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
+0.3
TCU · Drive 8PUNT · 7 plays · 4 yds
Q2 9:02
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 7 yds to the BAY 39
+6.9
Q2 8:41
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST down
+0.4
Q2 8:13
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
+1.1
Q2 8:07
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the BAY 32
0.0
Q2 7:28
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the BAY 32 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Taylor-Whitfield) to the BAY 42
-0.2
Q2 7:01
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer
0.0
Q2 6:56
Ethan Craw punt for 42 yds
-0.4
BAY · Drive 9FUMBLE · 1 play · 0 yds
Q2 6:49
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 17 Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by TCU Paul Oyewale
-8.1
TCU · Drive 10TD · 2 plays · 17 yds
Q2 6:37
Kevorian Barnes run for 12 yds to the BAY 5 for a 1ST down
+8.7
Q2 6:10
Kevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)
+16.5
BAY · Drive 11FG · 14 plays · 47 yds
Q2 6:10
Nate McCashland kickoff for 62 yds , Kole Wilson return for 25 yds to the BAY 28
-1.2
Q2 6:00
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 32
-2.7
Q2 5:29
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Jevon McIver Jr.
+0.1
Q2 5:24
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg, broken up by Kaleb Elarms-Orr
0.0
Q2 5:18
TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jamel Johnson) to the BAY 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:18
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the TCU 49
-1.4
Q2 4:52
Sawyer Robertson run for 4 yds to the TCU 45
-0.2
Q2 4:18
Michael Turner run for 13 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 3:40
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 3:10
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the TCU 20 Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Sidney Fugar) to the TCU 30
0.0
Q2 2:54
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 25
0.0
Q2 2:18
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
0.0
Q2 2:12
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
0.0
Q2 2:04
Connor Hawkins 42 Yd Field Goal
-8.6
TCU · Drive 12TD · 13 plays · 77 yds
Q2 2:04
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 65 yds , Jacobe Hayes return for 23 yds to the TCU 23
-2.8
Q2 1:58
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Major Everhart
+5.1
Q2 1:53
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 4 yds to the TCU 27
0.0
Q2 1:49
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer Baylor Penalty, off-side (Matthew Fobbs-White) to the TCU 32
0.0
Q2 1:46
TCU Penalty, false start (Quinton Harris) to the TCU 27
0.0
Q2 1:44
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 13 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:28
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 5 yds to the TCU 45
+0.6
Q2 1:21
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the TCU 49
0.0
Q2 1:00
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:48
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 41 yds to the BAY 7 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q2 0:32
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the BAY 6
+0.4
Q2 0:29
Josh Hoover run for no gain to the BAY 6
0.0
Q2 0:11
Jordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+24.8
BAY · Drive 13END OF HALF · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:11
Nate McCashland kickoff for 53 yds , Kole Wilson return for 16 yds to the BAY 28
-0.1
Q2 0:02
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the BAY 35
-8.4
TCU · Drive 14TD · 8 plays · 74 yds
Q3 15:00
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 65 yds , Jacobe Hayes return for 26 yds to the TCU 26
0.0
Q3 14:52
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 6 yds to the TCU 32
+8.4
Q3 14:32
Kevorian Barnes run for 9 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 14:02
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 40 yds to the BAY 19 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 13:37
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the BAY 17
+0.3
Q3 13:03
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the BAY 6 for a 1ST down
+1.7
Q3 12:22
Chase Curtis run for 3 yds to the BAY 3
0.0
Q3 11:39
Ka'Morreun Pimpton 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+11.9
BAY · Drive 15TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q3 11:39
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.4
Q3 11:37
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the BAY 33
-10.1
Q3 11:19
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:55
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
+0.9
Q3 10:48
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 6 yds to the BAY 41
+0.4
Q3 10:13
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST down
+0.9
Q3 9:50
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the TCU 45
+1.3
Q3 9:32
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 9:02
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe Prentice
-0.1
Q3 8:55
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 35
0.0
Q3 8:16
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q3 7:52
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 9 yds to the TCU 20
0.0
Q3 7:20
Michael Turner run for 2 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 6:40
Jadon Porter 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)
-15.3
Q3 6:44
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for no gain to the BAY 35
0.0
TCU · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q3 6:40
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q3 6:38
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 3 yds to the TCU 28
+6.3
Q3 6:14
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 24
0.0
Q3 5:32
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
+0.4
Q3 5:27
Ethan Craw punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 19 , Josh Cameron returns for 2 yds to the BAY 26 Baylor Penalty, illegal block (Caden Jenkins) to the BAY 19
-0.5
BAY · Drive 17FG · 12 plays · 58 yds
Q3 5:06
Michael Turner run for 12 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST down
-5.5
Q3 4:35
Michael Turner run for 2 yds to the BAY 33
-0.1
Q3 4:02
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q3 3:35
Caden Knighten run for 5 yds to the TCU 48
-0.2
Q3 3:16
Caden Knighten run for 9 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 2:40
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole Wilson, broken up by Vernon Glover
-0.6
Q3 2:31
Michael Turner run for 8 yds to the TCU 31
0.0
Q3 2:01
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q3 1:22
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins
+2.6
Q3 1:17
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the TCU 23
0.0
Q3 0:45
Caden Knighten run for no gain to the TCU 23
0.0
Q4 14:55
Connor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal
-11.1
TCU · Drive 18TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q4 14:55
Rhett Armstrong kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+15.7
Q4 14:55
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 5 yds to the TCU 30
-2.9
Q4 14:24
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q4 13:46
Trent Battle 65 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)
+13.6
BAY · Drive 19PUNT · 7 plays · 14 yds
Q4 13:46
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 13:44
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
-9.3
Q4 13:40
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe Prentice for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bud Clark) to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:33
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the BAY 45
-0.9
Q4 13:08
Michael Turner run for 1 yd to the BAY 46
0.0
Q4 12:36
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Zach Chapman and Devean Deal for a loss of 7 yards to the BAY 39
+1.1
Q4 11:52
Palmer Williams punt for 45 yds
+0.4
TCU · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 11:43
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 22
+8.7
Q4 11:03
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 24
0.0
Q4 10:18
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister TCU Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (Yards) to the TCU 24
0.0
Q4 10:15
Ethan Craw punt for 60 yds , Josh Cameron returns for no gain to the BAY 14
0.0
BAY · Drive 21DOWNS · 5 plays · 19 yds
Q4 10:00
Caden Knighten run for 12 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST down
-9.8
Q4 9:32
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole Wilson
+3.5
Q4 9:26
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 32
0.0
Q4 8:55
Caden Knighten run for 1 yd to the BAY 33
+0.9
Q4 8:20
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the BAY 33
-2.0
TCU · Drive 22TD · 4 plays · 33 yds
Q4 8:14
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 12 yds to the BAY 21 for a 1ST down
+10.7
Q4 7:30
Jeremy Payne run for 3 yds to the BAY 18
0.0
Q4 6:47
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the BAY 14
0.0
Q4 6:04
Kevorian Barnes 14 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)
+6.5
BAY · Drive 23INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q4 6:04
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 6:02
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for no gain to the TCU 30
-7.6
TCU · Drive 24PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 5:53
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 33
+7.6
Q4 5:12
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 34
+0.1
Q4 4:31
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the TCU 35
+0.1
Q4 4:24
Ethan Craw punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 40 , Josh Cameron returns for 14 yds to the BAY 40
0.0
BAY · Drive 25INT · 4 plays · 33 yds
Q4 4:14
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the BAY 46
-6.9
Q4 3:59
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 36 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:31
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Bud Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 27
+1.6
Q4 3:26
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Vernon Glover return for no gain to the TCU 26
0.0
TCU · Drive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD · 1 play · 74 yds
Q4 3:08
Keaton Thomas 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-0.5
TCU · Drive 27PUNT · 6 plays · -10 yds
Q4 3:08
Hayden Arnold kickoff for 12 yds
-9.3
Q4 3:04
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 47 TCU Penalty, personal foul (Coltin Deery) to the TCU 38
+9.3
Q4 2:59
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 40
0.0
Q4 2:56
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 42
0.0
Q4 2:12
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 43
0.0
Q4 2:00
Ethan Craw punt for 50 yds , Josh Cameron returns for no gain to the BAY 5
+0.1
BAY · Drive 28TD · 10 plays · 95 yds
Q4 1:47
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the BAY 12
-9.1
Q4 1:43
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Turner
0.0
Q4 1:36
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael Trigg
+0.9
Q4 1:30
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:20
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q4 1:15
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
0.0
Q4 1:07
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:56
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 0:42
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete
+1.8
Q4 0:30
Kole Wilson 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)
-13.8
BAY · Drive 29INT · 3 plays · -10 yds
Q4 0:30
Hayden Arnold kickoff for 17 yds
-1.9
Q4 0:27
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete Baylor Penalty, Offensive holding (Koltin Sieracki) to the BAY 42
-0.5
Q4 0:17
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Namdi Obiazor return for no gain to the TCU 48
+0.6
TCU · Drive 30Uncategorized · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 0:11
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48
+20.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Jordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+24.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:11
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 48
+20
TD · Q2 10:59
DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
+16.7