2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Dakarai Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:12: S. Jackson V run for 6 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) — OKST win probability +1.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 0:13: Cyrus Allen 12 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick) — CIN win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:39: Rodney Fields Jr. 20 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick) — OKST win probability +3.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 13:21: Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — OKST win probability +3.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:05: Matthew McDoom 100 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick) — CIN win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 14:01OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q1 4:10OKST 4th & 5 at CIN 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call10.8%83% to makePunt9.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 4:48OKST 4th & 1 at CIN 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.3%71% to convertField goal11.6%−0.777% to makePunt9.7%−2.7average punt
- Q2 2:28OKST 4th & 1 at CIN 6, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.8%69% to convertField goal11.8%−1.091% to makePunt9.6%−3.2average punt
- Q3 13:12CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 36, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q3 8:52CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 39, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.4%−1.1average punt
- Q3 7:34CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.6%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.5%average punt
- Q3 2:31OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 47, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.2%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q4 7:24OKST 4th & 1 at CIN 18, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%71% to convertField goal3.5%−0.479% to makePunt1.3%−2.6average punt
- Q4 7:01OKST 4th & 6 at CIN 23, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%−0.339% to convertField goal3.6%70% to makePunt1.7%−1.9average punt
- Q4 2:40OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 31, down 32Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:54CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:12OKST Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.0%97% to makeGo for two15.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:44CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:39OKST Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.8%97% to makeGo for two12.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:21CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:05CIN Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:39CIN Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOKSTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:586% → 6%
Q1 14:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.9%
Wes Pahl punt for 44 yds , Manny Covey returns for 3 yds to the CIN 31 Cincinnati Penalty, off-side (Kye Stokes) to the CIN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5894% → 94%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
5.7%
Cyrus Allen 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3FG17 plays · 69 yds · 7:406% → 6%
Q1 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
5.5%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+11
5.4%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 11 yds to the OKST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
5.8%
Oklahoma State Penalty, false start (Jakobe Sanders) to the OKST 30Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+6
5.7%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby, broken up by Matthew McDoom for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Matthew McDoom) to the OKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
5.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 6 yds to the CIN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD10 plays · 71 yds · 4:1095% → 94%
Q1 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+11
5.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
5.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 14 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
5.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 18 yds to the OKST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:415% → 6%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
5.2%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick, broken up by Ormanie ArnoldSimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.3%
S. Jackson V run for 6 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD9 plays · 86 yds · 2:1995% → 94%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
5.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 17 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+15
5.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Tawee Walker for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, roughing passer (Michael Diatta) to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
5.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 11 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
5.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb Goodie for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, Defensive holding (Cam Smith) to the OKST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7DOWNS13 plays · 69 yds · 6:154% → 5%
Q2 7:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+48
4.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 48 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
5.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 2 yds to the CIN 26 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Quinton Stewart) to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
5.3%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 5 yds to the CIN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD12 plays · 94 yds · 2:1395% → 99%
Q2 1:53
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+10
3.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 10 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
3.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 8 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+8
3.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 8 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
3.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Gavin Grover for 7 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
3.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 5 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
3.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 33 yds to the OKST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
3.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 31Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-1
3.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+26
3.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 41 yds Cincinnati Penalty, kick catching interference (Christian Harrison) to the OKST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD5 plays · 62 yds · 2:253% → 6%
CINDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 3:0295% → 96%
OKSTDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 33 yds · 4:554% → 4%
Q3 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+5
3.7%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 5 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
3.7%
Sesi Vailahi run for 5 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, substitution infraction (Matthew McDoom) to the OKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD12 plays · 95 yds · 4:0495% → 93%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
4.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Elijah Jones for 6 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+13
4.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 13 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
3.3%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by DeSean Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+38
3.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 38 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
3.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff Caldwell for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Eric Fletcher) to the OKST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
3.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 8 yds to the OKST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:131% → 0%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.3%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 8 yds to the OKST 33Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
1.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 20 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+9
1.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for 9 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-5
1.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Terrill Davis for no gain to the CIN 18 Oklahoma State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the CIN 23Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+15
1.5%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Daniel James) to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
1.8%
Oklahoma State Penalty, false start (Grayson Brousseau) to the CIN 13Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-100
0.1%
Matthew McDoom 100 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 7 yds · 0:460% → 0%
CINDrive 17TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
OKSTDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:550% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19Uncategorized6 plays · -15 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
0.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Williams) to the OKST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:39
Rodney Fields Jr. 20 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)
+3.5
TD · Q4 13:21
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:13
Cyrus Allen 12 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-1.7