CIN
Cincinnati 49 at Oklahoma State 17
OKST2025 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium
Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:15 · Dakarai Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 33
01
Market gave OKST a 6% pregame chance
−47
02
CIN has the ball
−12
03
CIN leading by 32
−2
04
Blowout context favors the offense
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds
0.0
Q1 14:59
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the OKST 29
+0.6
Q1 14:32
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKST 28
0.0
Q1 14:08
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis
0.0
Q1 14:01
Wes Pahl punt for 44 yds , Manny Covey returns for 3 yds to the CIN 31 Cincinnati Penalty, off-side (Kye Stokes) to the CIN 21
-0.1
Q1 13:52
Evan Pryor run for 32 yds to the OKST 47 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q1 13:21
Evan Pryor run for 10 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q1 12:56
Cyrus Allen run for 3 yds to the OKST 34
-0.1
Q1 12:26
Evan Pryor run for 8 yds to the OKST 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 11:54
Cyrus Allen 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-1.5
Q1 11:54
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 59 yds , Gavin Freeman return for 10 yds to the OKST 16
+0.1
Q1 11:50
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the OKST 21
+0.4
Q1 11:05
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis, broken up by Logan Wilson
0.0
Q1 10:59
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 11 yds to the OKST 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:31
Sam Jackson V run for 3 yds to the OKST 35
0.0
Q1 9:51
Oklahoma State Penalty, false start (Jakobe Sanders) to the OKST 30
0.0
Q1 9:30
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby, broken up by Matthew McDoom for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Matthew McDoom) to the OKST 36 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:26
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the OKST 41
0.0
Q1 8:48
Gavin Freeman run for 13 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:09
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the CIN 41
+0.4
Q1 7:29
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 6 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:49
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 6 yds to the CIN 29
0.0
Q1 6:10
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 9 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 5:28
Sam Jackson V run for 4 yds to the CIN 16
+0.1
Q1 4:50
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 1 yd to the CIN 15
0.0
Q1 4:14
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis
0.0
Q1 4:10
Logan Ward 33 yd FG GOOD
+1.2
Q1 4:10
Logan Ward kickoff for 47 yds , Gavin Grover return for 11 yds to the CIN 29
-0.3
Q1 4:04
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the CIN 29
-1.0
Q1 3:18
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the CIN 31
0.0
Q1 2:43
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 11 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:09
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 14 yds to the OKST 44 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q1 1:43
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb Goodie
-0.1
Q1 1:37
Tawee Walker run for 15 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:58
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 18 yds to the OKST 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:13
Tawee Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKST 14
0.0
Q2 14:54
Cyrus Allen 14 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-1.4
Q2 14:54
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+1.8
Q2 14:53
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 41 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q2 13:58
Sesi Vailahi run for 11 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 13:20
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Christian Fitzpatrick, broken up by Ormanie Arnold
0.0
Q2 13:15
Sesi Vailahi run for 14 yds to the CIN 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:32
Sesi Vailahi run for no gain to the CIN 9
0.0
Q2 11:53
Sesi Vailahi run for 3 yds to the CIN 6
0.0
Q2 11:12
S. Jackson V run for 6 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK)
+2.4
Q2 11:12
Logan Ward kickoff for 60 yds , Logan Wilson return for 19 yds to the CIN 46 Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive holding (Kale Woodburn) to the CIN 14
+2.4
Q2 11:03
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 17 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q2 10:37
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the CIN 34
+1.2
Q2 10:11
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Tawee Walker for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, roughing passer (Michael Diatta) to the CIN 49 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q2 10:05
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the OKST 48
-0.6
Q2 9:35
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 11 yds to the OKST 37 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q2 9:05
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb Goodie for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, Defensive holding (Cam Smith) to the OKST 27 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 8:57
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson
0.0
Q2 8:44
Joe Royer 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-6.1
Q2 8:44
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.1
Q2 8:43
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKST 20
+0.8
Q2 8:09
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the OKST 24
-0.4
Q2 7:25
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Shamar Rigby for 48 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:35
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 2 yds to the CIN 26 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive holding (Quinton Stewart) to the CIN 36
+0.3
Q2 6:09
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Shamar Rigby
+0.1
Q2 6:05
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 12 yds to the CIN 24
0.0
Q2 5:32
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 5 yds to the CIN 19
0.0
Q2 4:48
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the CIN 15 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 4:07
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Quinton Stewart
0.0
Q2 3:52
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the CIN 11
0.0
Q2 3:07
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the CIN 6
0.0
Q2 2:28
Sesi Vailahi run for no gain to the CIN 6
-0.2
Q2 2:26
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the CIN 8
-0.4
Q2 2:00
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Cyrus Allen
+0.1
Q2 1:53
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 10 yds to the CIN 18 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:35
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 8 yds to the CIN 26
0.0
Q2 1:11
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 8 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 1:01
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Gavin Grover for 7 yds to the CIN 41
0.0
Q2 0:54
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Gavin Grover
-0.1
Q2 0:48
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 5 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:35
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 33 yds to the OKST 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:29
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson
0.0
Q2 0:23
Brendan Sorsby run for 9 yds to the OKST 12
0.0
Q2 0:13
Cyrus Allen 12 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-1.9
Q2 0:13
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q2 0:10
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 5 yds to the OKST 35
+0.7
Q3 15:00
Logan Ward kickoff for 57 yds , Logan Wilson return for 24 yds to the CIN 32
0.0
Q3 14:53
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 31
-0.7
Q3 14:28
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 30
0.0
Q3 13:54
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the CIN 36
0.0
Q3 13:12
Max Fletcher punt for 41 yds Cincinnati Penalty, kick catching interference (Christian Harrison) to the OKST 38
0.0
Q3 13:04
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 8 yds to the OKST 46
+0.7
Q3 12:43
Sam Jackson V run for 1 yd to the OKST 47
0.0
Q3 12:05
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:24
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Quinton Stewart for 30 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:39
Rodney Fields Jr. 20 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)
+2.0
Q3 10:39
Logan Ward kickoff for 62 yds Oklahoma State Penalty, off-side (Temerrick Johnson) to the CIN 30
-0.3
Q3 10:36
Evan Pryor run for 6 yds to the CIN 36
-0.4
Q3 10:17
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the CIN 39
0.0
Q3 9:38
Evan Pryor run for no gain to the CIN 39
0.0
Q3 8:52
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 8:22
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff Caldwell, broken up by Eric Fletcher
-0.3
Q3 8:18
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the CIN 42
0.0
Q3 7:43
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb Goodie
0.0
Q3 7:34
Max Fletcher punt for 43 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for no gain to the OKST 14
0.0
Q3 7:26
Sesi Vailahi run for 5 yds to the OKST 19
+1.1
Q3 6:48
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 5 yds to the OKST 24 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 6:09
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis
0.0
Q3 6:02
Gavin Freeman run for 9 yds to the OKST 33
0.0
Q3 5:37
Sesi Vailahi run for 5 yds to the OKST 38 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, substitution infraction (Matthew McDoom) to the OKST 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 5:23
Sam Jackson V run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 4:28
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for 5 yds to the CIN 45
0.0
Q3 3:46
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 4 yds to the CIN 41
+0.2
Q3 3:04
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 12 yards to the OKST 47
+0.2
Q3 2:31
Wes Pahl punt for 48 yds
-0.3
Q3 2:25
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the CIN 11
-0.8
Q3 1:54
Tawee Walker run for 9 yds to the CIN 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 1:23
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Elijah Jones for 6 yds to the CIN 26
-0.1
Q3 0:56
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Elijah Jones
0.0
Q3 0:52
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 13 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:24
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb Goodie
-0.1
Q3 0:20
Brendan Sorsby sacked by DeSean Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 33
0.0
Q4 15:00
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 38 yds to the OKST 29 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 14:31
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the OKST 24
-0.2
Q4 14:07
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff Caldwell for a 1ST down Oklahoma State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Eric Fletcher) to the OKST 9 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 13:56
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 8 yds to the OKST 1
0.0
Q4 13:21
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
-1.6
Q4 13:21
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 13:18
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 8 yds to the OKST 33
+0.5
Q4 12:36
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 8 yds to the OKST 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:01
Sam Jackson V run for 4 yds to the OKST 45
0.0
Q4 11:24
Sam Jackson V run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 11:01
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 3 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 10:21
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Rodney Fields Jr. for 20 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 9:32
Sam Jackson V run for 3 yds to the CIN 24
+0.1
Q4 8:53
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 27
0.0
Q4 8:09
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Sesi Vailahi for 9 yds to the CIN 18
-0.1
Q4 7:24
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Terrill Davis for no gain to the CIN 18 Oklahoma State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the CIN 23
0.0
Q4 7:01
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Terrill Davis for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Daniel James) to the CIN 8 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:56
Oklahoma State Penalty, false start (Grayson Brousseau) to the CIN 13
0.0
Q4 6:52
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 14
0.0
Q4 6:05
Matthew McDoom 100 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-0.4
Q4 6:05
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 60 yds
-0.1
Q4 6:04
Rodney Fields Jr. run for 7 yds to the OKST 32
+0.1
Q4 5:18
Sam Jackson V run for a loss of 19 yards to the OKST 13 Sam Jackson V fumbled, recovered by CIN Logan Wilson
0.0
Q4 4:56
Jakorion Caffey run for 4 yds to the OKST 9
-0.1
Q4 4:39
Manny Covey run for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
-0.1
Q4 4:39
Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 62 yds
0.0
Q4 4:35
Trent Howland run for no gain to the OKST 25
+0.1
Q4 3:58
Kalib Hicks run for no gain to the OKST 25
0.0
Q4 3:19
Kalib Hicks run for 6 yds to the OKST 31
0.0
Q4 2:40
Kalib Hicks run for 2 yds to the OKST 33
0.0
Q4 2:00
Manny Covey run for 9 yds to the OKST 39
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Cincinnati Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Williams) to the OKST 48
0.0
Q4 1:57
Manny Covey run for 1 yd to the OKST 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:27
Manny Covey run for 2 yds to the OKST 36
0.0
Q4 0:50
Manny Covey run for 3 yds to the OKST 33
0.0
Q4 0:15
Dakarai Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKST 33
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:44
Joe Royer 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
-6.1
TD · Q2 11:12
S. Jackson V run for 6 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK)
+2.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 11:12
Logan Ward kickoff for 60 yds , Logan Wilson return for 19 yds to the CIN 46 Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive holding (Kale Woodburn) to the CIN 14
+2.4