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ARIZ

Arizona 28 at Houston 31

HOU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offenseTime remainingPregame priorScore differential
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:57: Conner Weigman run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — HOU win probability +10.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q3 6:02: Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — HOU win probability +25.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 15:00: Tre Spivey run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +28.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. TD · Q4 4:52: Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +42.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +36.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:13HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:09ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:37HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:36ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:35HOU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:51HOU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−2.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:02ARIZ 4th & 1 at HOU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−3.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−11.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:43HOU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:48ARIZ 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:01HOU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−15.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−28.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:53ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:11HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:24ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:57HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:02HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 15:00ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:52ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0754% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
46.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Brandon Mack II for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
45.7%
Noah Fifita run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+70
44.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 70 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3144% → 44%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.4%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
44.0%
J'Marion Burnette run for 8 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
43.3%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+52
43.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 52 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:3057% → 65%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
42.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
42.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
41.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
40.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 6 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
39.8%
Quincy Craig run for no gain to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
39.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
39.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
38.6%
Kedrick Reescano run for 5 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+9
38.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 9 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
37.5%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
34.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0534% → 32%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
34.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
33.7%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
32.8%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol, broken up by Genesis SmithSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
32.3%
Liam Dougherty punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5667% → 72%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
33.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+11
32.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre Spivey, broken up by Latrell McCutchin Sr.Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
31.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 8 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-10
30.1%
Quincy Craig run for no gain to the ARIZ 39 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Sam Olson) to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+10
30.4%
Noah Fifita run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
27.7%
Isaac Lovison punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2829% → 27%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
28.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard III for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ayden Garnes) to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
28.7%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
28.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
27.7%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
27.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5574% → 76%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
25.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+8
25.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
25.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Isaiah Mizell for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Will James) to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
24.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
50
-7
23.6%
Noah Fifita sacked by Wrook Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-4
23.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Wrook Brown and Eddie Walls III for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
23.7%
Isaac Lovison punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 6:3124% → 32%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
23.8%
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the HOU 6Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
23.3%
J'Marion Burnette run for 5 yds to the HOU 11Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+6
22.5%
Conner Weigman run for 6 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
22.5%
Arizona Penalty, off-side (Tiaoalii Savea) to the HOU 22Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 5
OWN 22
0
22.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby YoungSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+10
22.5%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
23.0%
Houston Penalty, false start (Jason Brooks Jr.) to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+9
21.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 9 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
22.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+11
21.7%
Conner Weigman run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
50
+4
22.8%
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
22.4%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-2
22.0%
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+33
20.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 33 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
31.7%
Conner Weigman run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:1374% → 84%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.9%
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
24.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 11 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
23.9%
Kedrick Reescano run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
24.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
23.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
22.1%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the HOU 39Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
23.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
15.5%
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
16.3%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the HOU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:1518% → 24%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+28
18.3%
Conner Weigman run for 28 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
20.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
21.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
20.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
21.5%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Dean Connors, broken up by Dominic LolesioSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
21.4%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
20.4%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
21.2%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard IIISimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
23.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
26.0%
Noah Fifita sacked by Carlos Allen Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:5830% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
29.9%
J'Marion Burnette run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
29.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
28.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Harvey Broussard III for 11 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
30.4%
DJ Butler run for 1 yd to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+16
31.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 1 yd to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Deshawn McKnight) to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
32.3%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
32.2%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
31.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
33.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
34.2%
J'Marion Burnette run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
34.7%
Conner Weigman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
30.0%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
31.5%
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+6
32.4%
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
32.5%
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
30.2%
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 2Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5644% → 62%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 16 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
54.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 1
50
-1
55.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 9 yds to the HOU 41 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre Spivey) to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
55.2%
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
57.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+9
57.4%
Noah Fifita run for 9 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
60.4%
Javin Whatley run for 15 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
61.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin Whatley, broken up by Eddie Walls IIISimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
61.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+4
65.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 4 yds to the HOU 8Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
67.5%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
66.8%
Quincy Craig run for 2 yds to the HOU 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.1%
Tre Spivey run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:1230% → 38%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.0%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
30.1%
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
34.1%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard III for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ayden Garnes) to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
36.1%
DJ Butler run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+13
40.0%
Dean Connors run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
43.7%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
43.5%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to J'Marion Burnette, broken up by Max HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
41.6%
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare Thomas, broken up by Genesis SmithSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
38.4%
Ethan Sanchez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:4750% → 72%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
50.4%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-10
50.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ARIZ 33 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Chubba Maae) to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+18
52.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
49.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+8
54.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
53.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 1
50
+2
55.6%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
69.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 8 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+19
69.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 19 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
70.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre Spivey for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Will James) to the HOU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
70.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson, broken up by Latrell McCutchin Sr. for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Latrell McCutchin Sr.) to the HOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the HOU 2Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.3%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:4739% → 64%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.8%
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
39.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Koby Young for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
40.7%
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
49.8%
Conner Weigman run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
50.6%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
51.0%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.0%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
30.0%
Conner Weigman run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
28.6%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
31.1%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
30.9%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+1
28.4%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
64.4%
Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:52
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-42.4
FG · Q4 0:01
Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
+36.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+35.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com