ARIZ
Arizona 28 at Houston 31
HOU2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:01 · Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
HOU has the ball
+18
Blowout context favors the offense
+10
Market gave HOU a 44% pregame chance
−8
defense timeouts not recorded for this play
−7
offense timeouts not recorded for this play
−7
0:01 left in regulation
+5
HOU leading by 3
+1
Pregame market line was available
+0
2023+ clock rules
+0
Ball at ARIZ 23
+0
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
ARIZ · Drive 1TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Zac Yoakam kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 15:00
Noah Fifita sacked by Brandon Mack II for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 21
-1.8
Q1 14:29
Noah Fifita run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 30
-0.3
Q1 13:53
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 70 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-5.3
HOU · Drive 2TD · 5 plays · 75 yds
Q1 13:42
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 13:42
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the HOU 32
+0.8
Q1 13:14
J'Marion Burnette run for 8 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:44
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the HOU 48
-0.2
Q1 12:11
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 52 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+7.5
ARIZ · Drive 3TD · 12 plays · 73 yds
Q1 12:01
Zac Yoakam kickoff for 65 yds , Javin Whatley return for 27 yds to the ARIZ 27
-0.5
Q1 11:54
Ismail Mahdi run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST down
-2.3
Q1 11:35
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 43
-0.6
Q1 10:55
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the ARIZ 48
0.0
Q1 10:10
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 6 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q1 9:38
Quincy Craig run for no gain to the HOU 46
-0.1
Q1 8:58
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the HOU 40
+0.1
Q1 8:16
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q1 7:56
Kedrick Reescano run for 5 yds to the HOU 28
0.0
Q1 7:20
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 9 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 6:46
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the HOU 13
0.0
Q1 6:24
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-4.4
HOU · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 6:18
Ian Wagner kickoff for 49 yds
+0.5
Q1 6:18
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the HOU 42
+1.2
Q1 5:49
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the HOU 42
+0.2
Q1 5:16
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol, broken up by Genesis Smith
-0.1
Q1 5:13
Liam Dougherty punt for 44 yds
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 5PUNT · 7 plays · 25 yds
Q1 5:05
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 20
-1.0
Q1 4:35
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:51
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre Spivey, broken up by Latrell McCutchin Sr.
0.0
Q1 3:47
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 8 yds to the ARIZ 39
0.0
Q1 3:11
Quincy Craig run for no gain to the ARIZ 39 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Sam Olson) to the ARIZ 29
-0.4
Q1 2:44
Noah Fifita run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 39
+0.4
Q1 2:09
Isaac Lovison punt for 41 yds
-0.3
HOU · Drive 6PUNT · 5 plays · 22 yds
Q1 2:05
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard III for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ayden Garnes) to the HOU 35 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q1 1:59
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the HOU 37
+0.6
Q1 1:21
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the HOU 42
0.0
Q1 0:41
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Tanner Koziol
+0.1
Q1 0:37
Liam Dougherty punt for 47 yds
0.0
ARIZ · Drive 7PUNT · 7 plays · 28 yds
Q1 0:31
Kedrick Reescano run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 18
-1.6
Q2 15:00
Noah Fifita pass complete to Gio Richardson for 8 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 14:31
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Isaiah Mizell for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Will James) to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 14:25
Noah Fifita pass complete to Isaiah Mizell for 9 yds to the 50 yard line
-0.5
Q2 14:00
Noah Fifita sacked by Wrook Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 43
0.0
Q2 13:20
Noah Fifita sacked by Wrook Brown and Eddie Walls III for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 39
0.0
Q2 12:36
Isaac Lovison punt for 57 yds
+0.1
HOU · Drive 8TD · 15 plays · 96 yds
Q2 12:28
J'Marion Burnette run for 2 yds to the HOU 6
+1.9
Q2 11:58
J'Marion Burnette run for 5 yds to the HOU 11
+0.7
Q2 11:25
Conner Weigman run for 6 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:52
Arizona Penalty, off-side (Tiaoalii Savea) to the HOU 22
+0.9
Q2 10:45
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Koby Young
0.0
Q2 10:39
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:03
Houston Penalty, false start (Jason Brooks Jr.) to the HOU 27
0.0
Q2 9:54
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 9 yds to the HOU 36
0.0
Q2 9:25
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the HOU 39
0.0
Q2 8:51
Conner Weigman run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 8:12
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 46
-0.1
Q2 7:40
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 41
+0.3
Q2 7:08
Dean Connors run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 43
+0.1
Q2 6:35
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 33 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 5:57
Conner Weigman run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+12.1
ARIZ · Drive 9DOWNS · 10 plays · 44 yds
Q2 5:52
Zac Yoakam kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-1.6
Q2 5:52
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31
-5.0
Q2 5:14
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 11 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 4:51
Kedrick Reescano run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 41
-0.6
Q2 4:10
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 45
0.0
Q2 3:34
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q2 3:12
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the HOU 39
-0.6
Q2 2:32
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the HOU 35
0.0
Q2 2:00
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the HOU 31
-0.1
Q2 1:39
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the HOU 31
+0.4
HOU · Drive 10TD · 9 plays · 69 yds
Q2 1:35
Conner Weigman run for 28 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST down
+6.1
Q2 1:27
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the ARIZ 35
+1.6
Q2 1:05
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare Thomas
0.0
Q2 1:02
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 0:48
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Dean Connors, broken up by Dominic Lolesio
+0.2
Q2 0:44
Dean Connors run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 20
0.0
Q2 0:32
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q2 0:24
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard III
+0.5
Q2 0:20
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+13.7
ARIZ · Drive 11END OF HALF · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:16
Zac Yoakam kickoff for 59 yds , Quincy Craig return for 23 yds to the ARIZ 29
-1.2
Q2 0:09
Noah Fifita sacked by Carlos Allen Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 35
-2.7
HOU · Drive 12TD · 18 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds
0.0
Q3 15:00
J'Marion Burnette run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22
+4.8
Q3 14:24
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the HOU 27
0.0
Q3 13:49
Conner Weigman pass complete to Harvey Broussard III for 11 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:24
DJ Butler run for 1 yd to the HOU 39
+2.6
Q3 12:49
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 1 yd to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Deshawn McKnight) to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST down
+1.9
Q3 12:29
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42
+0.4
Q3 11:50
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 36
+0.5
Q3 11:11
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 2 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q3 10:41
Conner Weigman pass complete to Dean Connors for 4 yds to the ARIZ 30
+0.2
Q3 10:00
J'Marion Burnette run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 27
+4.2
Q3 9:22
Conner Weigman run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 25
+0.5
Q3 8:51
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 22 for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 8:15
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 16
-1.9
Q3 7:46
J'Marion Burnette run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 7:13
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 6
0.0
Q3 6:41
Conner Weigman run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 2
-2.9
Q3 6:02
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+18.1
ARIZ · Drive 13TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q3 5:56
Zac Yoakam kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.2
Q3 5:56
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 16 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST down
-2.5
Q3 5:29
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 9 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q3 4:52
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 9 yds to the HOU 41 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre Spivey) to the ARIZ 49
-0.9
Q3 4:36
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 3:56
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 6 yds to the HOU 41
-0.2
Q3 3:19
Noah Fifita run for 9 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q3 2:38
Javin Whatley run for 15 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST down
-1.0
Q3 1:59
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin Whatley, broken up by Eddie Walls III
0.0
Q3 1:57
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the HOU 12
0.0
Q3 1:22
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 4 yds to the HOU 8
-0.9
Q3 1:02
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q3 0:17
Quincy Craig run for 2 yds to the HOU 3
+1.8
Q4 15:00
Tre Spivey run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-21.9
HOU · Drive 14MISSED FG · 10 plays · 45 yds
Q4 14:55
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.2
Q4 14:55
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 30
+12.1
Q4 14:24
Dean Connors run for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST down
+0.8
Q4 13:52
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Harvey Broussard III for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ayden Garnes) to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q4 13:46
DJ Butler run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 43
+0.5
Q4 13:07
Dean Connors run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST down
+0.5
Q4 12:29
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the ARIZ 30
0.0
Q4 11:54
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to J'Marion Burnette, broken up by Max Harris
0.0
Q4 11:48
Conner Weigman pass incomplete to Amare Thomas, broken up by Genesis Smith
-0.3
Q4 11:43
Ethan Sanchez 48 yd FG MISSED
-0.3
ARIZ · Drive 15TD · 13 plays · 70 yds
Q4 11:39
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 33
-10.6
Q4 11:04
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the ARIZ 33 Arizona Penalty, Offensive holding (Chubba Maae) to the ARIZ 23
0.0
Q4 10:39
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 9:56
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 39
+3.2
Q4 9:15
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 8 yds to the ARIZ 47
+5.6
Q4 8:33
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
+0.2
Q4 7:48
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST down
+2.5
Q4 7:01
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 8 yds to the HOU 40
+3.0
Q4 6:24
Noah Fifita pass complete to Cam Barmore for 19 yds to the HOU 21 for a 1ST down
+3.0
Q4 5:46
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre Spivey for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Will James) to the HOU 6 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 5:42
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris Hutson, broken up by Latrell McCutchin Sr. for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Latrell McCutchin Sr.) to the HOU 2 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:36
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the HOU 2
0.0
Q4 4:52
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-36.5
HOU · Drive 16FG · 14 plays · 52 yds
Q4 4:48
Ian Wagner kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.1
Q4 4:48
Dean Connors run for 5 yds to the HOU 30
+7.3
Q4 4:19
Conner Weigman pass complete to Koby Young for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST down
+2.4
Q4 3:50
Dean Connors run for 7 yds to the HOU 43
+0.2
Q4 3:21
Conner Weigman run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q4 2:43
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 45
+0.9
Q4 2:15
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 1:59
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 35
+0.4
Q4 1:54
Conner Weigman run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30
0.0
Q4 1:49
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 1:30
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 26
+0.2
Q4 0:50
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 24
0.0
Q4 0:26
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 23
-0.2
Q4 0:01
Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
+36.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:52
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-36.5
FG · Q4 0:01
Ethan Sanchez 41 Yd Field Goal
+36.2
TD · Q4 15:00
Tre Spivey run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
-21.9