ARDLINETry the model
UTAH

Utah 21 at BYU 24

BYU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey play
Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYTDFGTDTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · (00:14) Kneel down by BYU at Utah39 for loss of 1 yard.
01
Blowout context favors the offense
+19
02
BYU has the ball
+11
03
0:00 left in regulation
+2
04
BYU leading by 3
+1
Play by play - hover to pin the curve
Q1 15:00
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q1 14:54
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the BYU 32
+3.2
Q1 14:07
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 12 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 13:41
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 47
+1.1
Q1 13:11
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to LJ Martin
0.0
Q1 13:01
Bear Bachmeier sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 42
-0.2
Q1 12:22
Sam Vander Haar punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mana Carvalho at the UTAH 12
-0.6
Q1 12:22
Sam Vander Haar punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mana Carvalho at the UTAH 6
0.0
Q1 12:22
PENALTY Utah False Start (Mokofisi,Michael) 3 yards from Utah06 to Utah03. NO PLAY.
-4.4
Q1 12:17
Wayshawn Parker run for 3 yds to the UTAH 6
0.0
Q1 11:43
Wayshawn Parker run for 6 yds to the UTAH 12
0.0
Q1 11:09
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 22 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 10:53
Wayshawn Parker run for 1 yd to the UTAH 35
0.0
Q1 10:17
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the UTAH 43
0.0
Q1 9:49
Devon Dampier run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-1.4
Q1 9:20
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Dallen Bentley
-1.0
Q1 9:13
Daniel Bray run for 29 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 8:29
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the BYU 19
+0.6
Q1 8:05
Devon Dampier run for 5 yds to the BYU 14
0.0
Q1 7:31
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the BYU 12
0.0
Q1 6:50
Daniel Bray run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 13
+0.8
Q1 6:50
Timeout BYU, clock 06:50
+6.7
Q1 6:42
Parker Kingston run for 4 yds to the BYU 17
0.0
Q1 6:17
LJ Martin run for 9 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 5:46
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 27
0.0
Q1 5:00
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Preston Rex for 32 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 4:27
Bear Bachmeier sacked by Jonah Lea'ea for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 43
+2.8
Q1 3:56
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds to the UTAH 45
0.0
Q1 3:14
Bear Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the UTAH 32
-0.6
Q1 2:38
LJ Martin run for no gain to the UTAH 32
0.0
Q1 2:38
Timeout BYU, clock 02:38
-11.3
Q1 2:19
Utah Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the UTAH 22
0.0
Q1 2:19
Devon Dampier run for 12 yds to the UTAH 34
0.0
Q1 1:50
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Ryan Davis
0.0
Q1 1:37
Orion Phillips punt for 49 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 2 yds to the BYU 19
0.0
Q1 1:37
Timeout BYU, clock 01:37
-23.5
Q1 1:28
LJ Martin run for no gain to the BYU 19
0.0
Q1 0:50
Bear Bachmeier run for 14 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 0:00
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q2 15:00
PENALTY Utah Delay Of Game (Johnson,Tao) 5 yards from BYU46 to Utah49. NO PLAY.
+0.9
Q2 14:53
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the UTAH 43 for a 1ST down
+0.7
Q2 14:12
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 26 yds to the UTAH 17 for a 1ST down
+4.1
Q2 13:37
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 17 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+25.7
Q2 13:37
Timeout BYU, clock 13:37
-20.9
Q2 13:37
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+18.1
Q2 13:29
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the UTAH 29
-3.1
Q2 12:56
Devon Dampier pass complete to Semi Taulanga for 10 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 12:31
Wayshawn Parker run for 9 yds to the UTAH 48
-0.6
Q2 11:54
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q2 11:36
Devon Dampier run for 8 yds to the BYU 33
-1.0
Q2 11:16
Wayshawn Parker run for 2 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:25
Devon Dampier pass complete to Semi Taulanga for 7 yds to the BYU 38
+1.0
Q2 9:52
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Lander Barton
0.0
Q2 9:39
Devon Dampier run for 10 yds to the BYU 28
0.0
Q2 9:15
Timeout BYU, clock 09:15
+1.5
Q2 9:11
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather
+1.5
Q2 9:11
Timeout BYU, clock 09:11
+10.1
Q2 9:05
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 33
0.0
Q2 8:32
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 35
0.0
Q2 7:42
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 30
+1.0
Q2 7:18
Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mana Carvalho at the UTAH 25
-0.6
Q2 7:18
Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mana Carvalho at the UTAH 15
0.0
Q2 7:18
Timeout BYU, clock 07:18
-6.5
Q2 7:08
Daniel Bray run for 12 yds to the UTAH 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 6:49
Daniel Bray run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 24
0.0
Q2 6:09
Devon Dampier pass complete to Lander Barton for 17 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 5:41
Devon Dampier run for 1 yd to the UTAH 42
-1.8
Q2 5:05
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Larry Simmons
+0.8
Q2 4:54
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 24 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q2 4:32
Devon Dampier run for 26 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST down
-1.5
Q2 4:17
PENALTY Utah False Start 5 yards from BYU08 to BYU13. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 3:56
NaQuari Rogers run for 2 yds to the BYU 11
0.0
Q2 3:24
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-19.0
Q2 3:24
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+2.6
Q2 3:19
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
+0.4
Q2 3:12
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 26
0.0
Q2 2:39
Timeout BYU, clock 02:39
0.0
Q2 2:32
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cody Hagen
0.0
Q2 2:21
Sam Vander Haar punt for 34 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for no gain to the UTAH 40 Mana Carvalho fumbled, recovered by BYU Talan Alfrey
-0.3
Q2 2:16
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the UTAH 35
+2.7
Q2 2:00
Timeout BYU, clock 02:00
-0.1
Q2 1:54
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 13 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:26
Parker Kingston pass incomplete to Carsen Ryan
0.0
Q2 1:16
Bear Bachmeier run for 8 yds to the UTAH 14
0.0
Q2 1:08
Timeout Utah, clock 01:08
-0.4
Q2 1:03
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the UTAH 13
0.0
Q2 1:03
Timeout BYU, clock 01:03
-22.0
Q2 1:00
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the UTAH 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:44
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the UTAH 9
+0.4
Q2 0:20
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the UTAH 7
-0.1
Q2 0:06
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete
-0.1
Q2 0:03
Will Ferrin 26 yd FG GOOD
+42.5
Q2 0:03
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-0.5
Q2 0:00
Daniel Bray run for 15 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST down
-10.1
Q3 14:56
(15:00) Ferrin,Will kickoff 48 yards to the Utah17 Damuni,Levani return 9 yards to the Utah26 (Alfrey,Talan; Doe,Kevin) PENALTY Utah Holding 10 yards from BYU35 to BYU45. NO PLAY.
+17.2
Q3 14:56
Will Ferrin kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback
+0.8
Q3 14:50
Wayshawn Parker run for 2 yds to the UTAH 27
-4.5
Q3 14:15
Devon Dampier pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 14:10
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Dallen Bentley
0.0
Q3 14:00
Orion Phillips punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 41
0.0
Q3 14:00
Timeout BYU, clock 14:00
+5.7
Q3 13:55
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker Kingston
0.0
Q3 13:40
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 3 yds to the BYU 38
0.0
Q3 13:09
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
-0.2
Q3 12:58
Sam Vander Haar punt for 50 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for 16 yds to the UTAH 28
-0.6
Q3 12:58
Timeout BYU, clock 12:58
-4.6
Q3 12:49
Devon Dampier sacked by Max Alford for a loss of 5 yards to the UTAH 23
0.0
Q3 12:22
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Larry Simmons
0.0
Q3 11:40
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 52 yds Dallen Bentley fumbled, recovered by UTAH Tobias Merriweather for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:16
Daniel Bray run for 2 yds to the BYU 23
-2.9
Q3 11:00
Daniel Bray run for 8 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:31
Timeout BYU, clock 10:31
-12.4
Q3 10:25
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the BYU 13
0.0
Q3 9:58
Devon Dampier pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 14
+8.0
Q3 9:17
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 6 yds to the BYU 8
0.0
Q3 8:47
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the BYU 6
+0.8
Q3 8:38
LJ Martin run for 14 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST down
-7.2
Q3 8:05
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the BYU 28
+0.3
Q3 7:33
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 6:59
Bear Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 40
0.0
Q3 6:19
Preston Rex run for 2 yds to the BYU 42
+0.6
Q3 5:32
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
-0.3
Q3 4:55
(05:02) Shotgun Martin,LJ rush right for 1 yard loss to the BYU49 (Davis,Elijah) PENALTY BYU Holding (Gentry,Andrew) 10 yards from BYU50 to BYU40. NO PLAY.
+0.9
Q3 4:40
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
-0.7
Q3 4:33
(04:40) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass intercepted by Bennee,Jackson at BYU50 Bennee,Jackson return 9 yards to the BYU41, End Of Play PENALTY Utah Holding (Johnson,Tao) 10 yards from BYU40 to BYU50. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 4:21
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the UTAH 47
+0.7
Q3 3:42
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
+0.2
Q3 3:37
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
-0.3
Q3 3:27
Sam Vander Haar punt for 37 yds
0.0
Q3 3:20
Wayshawn Parker run for no gain to the UTAH 10
+8.8
Q3 2:39
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 12 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 2:24
Devon Dampier pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 2:19
Wayshawn Parker run for no gain to the UTAH 22
0.0
Q3 1:43
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass incomplete short left to Buchanan,JJ thrown to Utah30 broken up by Johnson,Evan PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Johnson,Evan) 8 yards from Utah22 to Utah30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q3 1:37
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Ryan Davis
0.0
Q3 1:29
Daniel Bray run for 6 yds to the UTAH 36
0.0
Q3 0:51
Daniel Bray run for 4 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 0:00
PENALTY Utah Delay Of Game (Dampier,Devon) 5 yards from Utah40 to Utah35. NO PLAY.
-0.9
Q4 14:47
Byrd Ficklin run for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST down
+1.2
Q4 14:15
Daniel Bray run for 49 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-30.0
Q4 14:15
Timeout BYU, clock 14:15
+22.9
Q4 14:05
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds , Cody Hagen return for 19 yds to the BYU 19
-21.4
Q4 13:58
Bear Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 28
-3.9
Q4 13:33
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 12:41
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 17 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 11:59
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 26 yds to the UTAH 25 for a 1ST down
+1.1
Q4 11:19
Parker Kingston run for 12 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+26.0
Q4 11:19
Timeout BYU, clock 11:19
-26.7
Q4 11:19
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+25.0
Q4 11:07
Byrd Ficklin run for 3 yds to the UTAH 28
+8.0
Q4 10:37
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 11 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q4 9:54
Byrd Ficklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 36
+1.4
Q4 9:24
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Tanner Wall return for no gain to the BYU 36
+0.4
Q4 9:24
Timeout BYU, clock 09:24
-6.0
Q4 9:16
LJ Martin run for 15 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST down
-0.8
Q4 8:37
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the UTAH 45
+0.9
Q4 7:56
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds to the UTAH 43
0.0
Q4 7:21
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 10 yds to the UTAH 33 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q4 6:37
PENALTY BYU False Start (Kingston,Parker) 5 yards from Utah33 to Utah38. NO PLAY.
+0.2
Q4 6:24
LJ Martin run for 17 yds to the UTAH 21 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 5:41
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the UTAH 18
-2.3
Q4 5:06
LJ Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTAH 22
+0.7
Q4 4:33
Timeout BYU, clock 04:33
+2.6
Q4 4:22
Bear Bachmeier run for 22 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+25.9
Q4 4:22
Will Ferrin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.0
Q4 4:10
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the UTAH 30
+0.3
Q4 3:58
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to JJ Buchanan
0.0
Q4 3:53
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Dallen Bentley
0.0
Q4 3:33
Devon Dampier pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 5 yds to the UTAH 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 3:22
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather
0.0
Q4 3:15
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather
0.0
Q4 3:12
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Ryan Davis
0.0
Q4 3:12
PENALTY Utah Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Utah35 to Utah30. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 3:04
Devon Dampier sacked by Jack Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 28
0.0
Q4 3:01
LJ Martin run for no gain to the UTAH 28
0.0
Q4 3:01
Timeout Utah, clock 03:01
+1.2
Q4 2:55
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the UTAH 25
0.0
Q4 2:55
Timeout Utah, clock 02:55
-0.4
Q4 2:50
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the UTAH 23
0.0
Q4 2:50
Timeout BYU, clock 02:50
0.0
Q4 2:45
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
0.0
Q4 2:45
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase Roberts
0.0
Q4 2:24
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 31 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST down
-0.7
Q4 2:00
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 16 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down
-0.2
Q4 2:00
Timeout BYU, clock 02:00
-0.3
Q4 1:54
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass incomplete deep right to Merriweather,Tobias thrown to BYU00 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Beasley,Tayvion) 15 yards from BYU30 to BYU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
+0.4
Q4 1:51
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the BYU 10
+0.5
Q4 1:38
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the BYU 6
-0.3
Q4 1:28
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass incomplete short right to Merriweather,Tobias thrown to BYU00 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Johnson,Evan) 4 yards from BYU06 to BYU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q4 1:24
Devon Dampier pass complete to Larry Simmons for 2 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-17.5
Q4 1:23
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 7 yds
+5.0
Q4 0:37
(00:37) Kneel down by BYU at Utah43 for loss of 1 yard.
+11.1
Q4 0:27
PENALTY Utah Delay Of Game 5 yards from Utah43 to Utah38. NO PLAY.
+0.1
Q4 0:00
(00:14) Kneel down by BYU at Utah39 for loss of 1 yard.
+9.2
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:03
Will Ferrin 26 yd FG GOOD
+42.5
TD · Q4 14:15
Daniel Bray run for 49 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-30
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:19
Timeout BYU, clock 11:19
-26.7
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com