2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:21 · punt blocked by Oliver Miles III blocked by Oliver Miles III (07:19) Arizona St. punt 0 yards to the TTU44 blocked by Miles III,Oliver recovered by TTU Valsin,Kelby at TTU31 Valsin,Kelby return 21 yards to the ASU48 (Lono-Wong,Blazen). , Kelby Valsin returns for 21 yds to the ASU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:57: Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 30 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) — TTU win probability +14.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:50: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +13.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:45: Will Hammond run for 1 yd for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — TTU win probability +17.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:00: Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds for a TD (W. Hammond Run For Two-point Conversion) — TTU win probability +75.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:34: Raleek Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK) — ASU win probability +54.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:09TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it68.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q1 11:26ASU 4th & 3 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:12TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it66.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q1 7:14ASU 4th & 21 at ASU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it33.6%−0.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q1 5:51TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 30, tiedClose callPunted · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:43ASU 4th & 10 at TTU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snapGo for it36.8%−0.327% to convertField goalTheir call37.2%80% to makePunt35.4%−1.8average punt
- Q1 0:30TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it60.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q2 14:00ASU 4th & 11 at TTU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call39.0%58% to makePunt36.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 10:15TTU 4th & 6 at ASU 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.2%40% to convertField goal55.5%−0.742% to makePunt55.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 8:18ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.9%−1.6average punt
- Q2 8:18ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.9%−1.6average punt
- Q2 6:38TTU 4th & 1 at ASU 36, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.0%71% to convertField goal49.8%−3.242% to makePunt49.4%−3.6average punt
- Q2 1:43ASU 4th & 9 at TTU 9, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snapGo for it39.9%−1.025% to convertField goalTheir call40.9%89% to makePunt34.4%−6.5average punt
- Q2 0:33TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 32, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it49.5%−1.941% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q3 13:01ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 41, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snapGo for it47.4%−1.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q3 7:34TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 36, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it25.8%−4.711% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q4 14:14ASU 4th & 11 at TTU 11, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snapGo for it75.8%−1.922% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%87% to makePunt68.1%−9.6average punt
- Q4 11:24TTU 4th & 6 at ASU 8, down 12Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 15.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.0%−1.232% to convertField goal15.2%90% to makePunt7.9%−7.4average punt
- Q4 7:21ASU 4th & 2 at TTU 44, up 12Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.6%57% to convertField goal89.9%−2.827% to makePuntTheir call91.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 2:05ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 19, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it81.1%−5.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q4 0:55ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.5%−7.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 5:57TTU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.0%97% to makeGo for two58.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:50ASU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.1%97% to makeGo for two67.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:45TTU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.9%97% to makeGo for two13.3%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 2:00TTU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick59.5%−0.697% to makeGo for twoTheir call60.1%45% to convert
- Q4 0:34ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%−1.697% to makeGo for two81.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4271% → 70%
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
29.2%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 7 yds to the TTU 33Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
29.4%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Wilson,Sheridan) 5 yards from TTU33 to TTU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
29.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the TTU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3330% → 31%
TTUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 2:0769% → 68%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
30.7%
Will Hammond sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 23Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+8
31.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 8 yds to the TTU 33Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+31
31.8%
Jack Burgess punt for 50 yds , Zechariah Sample returns for 31 yds to the ASU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:4832% → 32%
TTUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1968% → 67%
ASUDrive 6FG10 plays · 62 yds · 4:0033% → 36%
Q1 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+49
33.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 49 yds to the TTU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
35.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Atkins,Joshua) 5 yards from TTU17 to TTU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+5
35.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 5 yds to the TTU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0364% → 62%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.5%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 3 yds to the TTU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2337% → 41%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
37.4%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep right to Hamilton,Jaren thrown to TTU22 PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Jordan,Brenden) 15 yards from ASU38 to TTU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
38.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9DOWNS11 plays · 32 yds · 3:3260% → 59%
ASUDrive 10DOWNS6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4945% → 47%
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
46.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 7 yds to the ASU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11TD5 plays · 45 yds · 2:1555% → 67%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
32.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 30 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FG14 plays · 66 yds · 4:0538% → 47%
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
39.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
41.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 45 yds to the TTU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
43.3%
(02:22) PENALTY ASU Illegal Snap (Pule,Makua) 5 yards from TTU02 to TTU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
42.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the TTU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0054% → 52%
Q2 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
45.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the TTU 25Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.1%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 2 yds to the TTU 25Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+3
48.4%
Jack Burgess punt for 52 yds , Zechariah Sample returns for 3 yds to the ASU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2847% → 47%
ASUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4447% → 47%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
48.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
46.9%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 48 yds , Coy Eakin returns for no gain to the TTU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:1752% → 51%
ASUDrive 17TD8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2853% → 69%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
52.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds to the TTU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
51.1%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete short left to Eusebio,Derek thrown to TTU00 PENALTY TTU Roughing The Passer (Bailey,David) 2 yards from TTU04 to TTU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
54.9%
Jeff Sims run for no gain to the TTU 2 Jeff Sims fumbled, recovered by ASU Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0735% → 30%
ASUDrive 19FG17 plays · 69 yds · 8:2069% → 85%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
69.0%
(07:34) PENALTY ASU False Start (Klemm,Jalen) 5 yards from ASU20 to ASU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+7
69.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 7 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
69.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds Chamon Metayer fumbled, recovered by ASU Jalen Klemm for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
72.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 10 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
75.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 23 yds to the TTU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
76.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 8 yds to the TTU 22Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-1
78.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 16Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+6
77.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the TTU 10 Sam Leavitt fumbled, recovered by ASU for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 2:2718% → 12%
ASUDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5291% → 94%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
91.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Demarius Robinson for 5 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
93.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 7 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+21
93.5%
punt blocked by Oliver Miles III blocked by Oliver Miles III (07:19) Arizona St. punt 0 yards to the TTU44 blocked by Miles III,Oliver recovered by TTU Valsin,Kelby at TTU31 Valsin,Kelby return 21 yards to the ASU48 (Lono-Wong,Blazen). , Kelby Valsin returns for 21 yds to the ASU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD12 plays · 48 yds · 3:297% → 24%
Q4 6:57
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
92.9%
Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 11 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
93.4%
Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 5 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
92.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 4 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-5
93.3%
(06:07) PENALTY TTU False Start (Carter,Davion) 5 yards from ASU28 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.5%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 9 yds to the ASU 16Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
93.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
93.8%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 6 yds to the ASU 3Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.2%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 2 yds to the ASU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3587% → 89%
TTUDrive 24TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
13.5%
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds for a TD (W. Hammond Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
13.5%
Hammond,Will pass attempt failed PENALTY ASU Holding (Abney II,Keith) 2 yards from ASU03 to ASU01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD16 plays · 75 yds · 1:1532% → 95%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
31.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for 6 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
31.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 8 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+33
25.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 33 yds to the TTU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
38.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 8 yds to the TTU 14Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+12
39.7%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete short middle to Tyson,Jordyn thrown to TTU00 PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Pollock,Brice) 12 yards from TTU14 to TTU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
95.3%
(00:34) Gomez,Jesus kickoff 37 yards to the TTU28 Low,Trent return 0 yards to the TTU28 (Bimage Jr.,Rodney) PENALTY ASU Offside (Sample,Zechariah) 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 36 yds · 0:1811% → 19%
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
86.4%
Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 12 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:00
Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds for a TD (W. Hammond Run For Two-point Conversion)
-75.5
TD · Q4 0:34
Raleek Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+54.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+18.9