YardLine - College football win probability

TTU

Texas Tech 22 at Arizona State 26

ASU

2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium

Win probability · ASU

modelASU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey play

What moved it - hover a play below

Q4 0:00 · Will Hammond pass incomplete to Reggie Virgil

Market gave ASU a 28% pregame chance

−24

TTU has the ball

+14

Blowout context favors the defense

+13

0:00 left in regulation

Play by play - hover to pin the curve

Q1 15:00

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q1 14:51

Will Hammond run for 1 yd to the TTU 26

-2.4

Q1 14:24

Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 7 yds to the TTU 33

-0.5

Q1 14:01

PENALTY TTU False Start (Wilson,Sheridan) 5 yards from TTU33 to TTU28. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q1 13:40

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the TTU 31

0.0

Q1 13:09

Jack Burgess punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 24

0.0

Q1 12:59

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 19 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST down

+3.1

Q1 12:33

Jordyn Tyson run for 1 yd to the ASU 44

+1.0

Q1 12:03

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

0.0

Q1 11:35

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

-0.2

Q1 11:26

Kanyon Floyd punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 8

-0.3

Q1 11:19

J'Koby Williams run for 19 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST down

-3.6

Q1 11:00

Will Hammond sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 4 yards to the TTU 23

0.0

Q1 10:18

Will Hammond run for 2 yds to the TTU 25

0.0

Q1 9:33

Will Hammond pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 8 yds to the TTU 33

0.0

Q1 9:12

Jack Burgess punt for 50 yds , Zechariah Sample returns for 31 yds to the ASU 48

+0.1

Q1 9:02

Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 49

+4.1

Q1 8:28

Sam Leavitt sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 45

+0.3

Q1 7:35

Sam Leavitt sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 37

-0.2

Q1 7:14

Kanyon Floyd punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TTU 22

-0.8

Q1 7:10

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Reggie Virgil

-3.1

Q1 7:08

Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the TTU 25

0.0

Q1 6:22

Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 5 yds to the TTU 30

0.0

Q1 5:51

Jack Burgess punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zechariah Sample at the ASU 21

+0.1

Q1 5:43

Raleek Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 15

+3.1

Q1 5:06

Raleek Brown run for 17 yds to the ASU 32 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q1 4:38

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 34

0.0

Q1 4:12

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek Brown

0.0

Q1 3:48

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 49 yds to the TTU 17 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 3:26

PENALTY ASU False Start (Atkins,Joshua) 5 yards from TTU17 to TTU22. NO PLAY.

+2.2

Q1 3:02

Raleek Brown run for no gain to the TTU 22

0.0

Q1 2:31

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Khamari Anderson

0.0

Q1 2:16

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 5 yds to the TTU 17

-0.2

Q1 1:43

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+3.7

Q1 1:43

Jesus Gomez 34 yd FG GOOD

+0.7

Q1 1:33

Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 3 yds to the TTU 28

-3.7

Q1 1:04

Will Hammond run for 2 yds to the TTU 30

+0.1

Q1 0:39

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas

+0.1

Q1 0:30

punt blocked by Roman Pitre blocked by Roman Pitre

0.0

Q1 0:23

(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep right to Hamilton,Jaren thrown to TTU22 PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Jordan,Brenden) 15 yards from ASU38 to TTU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

+3.5

Q1 0:00

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 19 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST down

+1.4

Q2 14:49

Jaren Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 29

+0.5

Q2 14:14

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClain

0.0

Q2 14:08

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

-0.2

Q2 14:00

Jesus Gomez 47 yd FG GOOD

+6.1

Q2 13:53

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 64 yds , J'Koby Williams return for 31 yds to the TTU 32

-0.4

Q2 13:47

J'Koby Williams run for 1 yd to the TTU 33

-5.9

Q2 13:10

Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 10 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 12:56

Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the TTU 46

-1.2

Q2 12:16

Will Hammond run for no gain to the TTU 46

-0.2

Q2 11:30

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 14 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST down

+2.1

Q2 11:26

Timeout Arizona State, clock 11:26

+0.5

Q2 11:14

Will Hammond run for 4 yds to the ASU 36

+0.4

Q2 10:51

Cameron Dickey run for no gain to the ASU 36

+0.8

Q2 10:18

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Johncarlos Miller II

+0.4

Q2 10:15

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Coy Eakin

+0.8

Q2 10:07

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 38

+5.2

Q2 9:29

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 7 yds to the ASU 45

+0.1

Q2 8:51

Jaren Hamilton run for no gain to the ASU 45

0.0

Q2 8:23

Timeout Texas Tech, clock 08:23

-2.4

Q2 8:18

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

0.0

Q2 8:18

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

0.0

Q2 8:12

Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the ASU 42

-2.5

Q2 7:44

Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the ASU 39

-0.4

Q2 7:18

Cameron Dickey run for 3 yds to the ASU 36

0.0

Q2 6:38

Cameron Dickey run for 6 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q2 5:57

Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 30 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)

-21.3

Q2 5:57

Stone Harrington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+1.3

Q2 5:48

Raleek Brown run for 6 yds to the ASU 31

+5.4

Q2 5:15

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 4:45

Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the ASU 41

+1.6

Q2 4:04

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the ASU 48

0.0

Q2 3:39

Jeff Sims run for 3 yds to the TTU 49 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 3:09

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 45 yds to the TTU 4 for a 1ST down

+1.0

Q2 2:46

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the TTU 2

+0.6

Q2 2:10

(02:22) PENALTY ASU Illegal Snap (Pule,Makua) 5 yards from TTU02 to TTU07. NO PLAY.

+0.2

Q2 2:00

Timeout Arizona State, clock 02:00

0.0

Q2 1:55

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

0.0

Q2 1:48

Timeout Texas Tech, clock 01:48

-0.6

Q2 1:46

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the TTU 9

+0.4

Q2 1:43

Jesus Gomez 26 yd FG GOOD

+9.5

Q2 1:40

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds , Micah Hudson return for 16 yds to the TTU 16

-0.5

Q2 1:33

Will Hammond run for 6 yds to the TTU 22

-4.3

Q2 1:18

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 3 yds to the TTU 25

0.0

Q2 1:14

Will Hammond run for 2 yds to the TTU 27 for a 1ST down

+0.6

Q2 1:03

Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 2 yds to the TTU 25

0.0

Q2 0:52

Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds to the TTU 32

0.0

Q2 0:42

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Cameron Dickey

0.0

Q2 0:33

Jack Burgess punt for 52 yds , Zechariah Sample returns for 3 yds to the ASU 19

0.0

Q2 0:28

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek Brown

+4.9

Q2 0:00

Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 20

0.0

Q3 15:00

Stone Harrington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-5.1

Q3 14:45

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for no gain to the ASU 25

+7.0

Q3 14:23

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon Metayer

0.0

Q3 14:06

Sam Leavitt run for 14 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 13:51

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon Metayer

+0.6

Q3 13:42

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 2 yds to the ASU 41

0.0

Q3 13:09

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

-0.2

Q3 13:01

Kanyon Floyd punt for 48 yds , Coy Eakin returns for no gain to the TTU 11

-0.7

Q3 12:48

J'Koby Williams run for 2 yds to the TTU 13

-5.2

Q3 12:38

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Terrance Carter Jr.

0.0

Q3 12:31

Will Hammond pass intercepted Martell Hughes return for 1 yd to the TTU 21

0.0

Q3 12:18

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds to the TTU 9 for a 1ST down

+7.2

Q3 12:03

Raleek Brown run for 1 yd to the TTU 8

0.0

Q3 11:11

Sam Leavitt sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TTU 16

+0.5

Q3 10:30

Raleek Brown run for 12 yds to the TTU 4

-0.3

Q3 9:58

(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete short left to Eusebio,Derek thrown to TTU00 PENALTY TTU Roughing The Passer (Bailey,David) 2 yards from TTU04 to TTU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

-0.1

Q3 9:35

Jeff Sims run for no gain to the TTU 2 Jeff Sims fumbled, recovered by ASU Jordyn Tyson

+1.0

Q3 9:13

Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the TTU 2

0.0

Q3 8:50

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 2 yds for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)

+18.2

Q3 8:50

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-0.4

Q3 8:41

Cameron Dickey run for 20 yds to the TTU 45 for a 1ST down

-2.8

Q3 8:23

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas

0.0

Q3 8:17

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas

0.0

Q3 8:07

Will Hammond sacked by Anthonie Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the TTU 36

0.0

Q3 7:34

Jack Burgess punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zechariah Sample at the ASU 20

0.0

Q3 7:34

(07:34) PENALTY ASU False Start (Klemm,Jalen) 5 yards from ASU20 to ASU15. NO PLAY.

+4.1

Q3 7:22

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaren Hamilton for 7 yds to the ASU 22

0.0

Q3 6:55

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClain

+0.1

Q3 6:17

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 12 yds Chamon Metayer fumbled, recovered by ASU Jalen Klemm for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 6:03

Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the ASU 37

0.0

Q3 5:27

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Raleek Brown for 10 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST down

+0.9

Q3 4:43

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 23 yds to the TTU 30 for a 1ST down

+0.6

Q3 4:03

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 8 yds to the TTU 22

+1.1

Q3 3:42

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

0.0

Q3 3:27

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the TTU 20 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q3 2:45

Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the TTU 15

+0.4

Q3 1:57

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 16

0.0

Q3 1:29

Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the TTU 10 Sam Leavitt fumbled, recovered by ASU for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q3 1:12

Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the TTU 6

+0.2

Q3 0:00

Raleek Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the TTU 9

0.0

Q4 14:51

Raleek Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the TTU 11

-0.2

Q4 14:14

Jesus Gomez 28 yd FG GOOD

+10.6

Q4 14:02

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 65 yds , J'Koby Williams return for 56 yds to the ASU 44

-0.2

Q4 13:51

Arizona State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ASU 22 for a 1ST down

-8.0

Q4 13:35

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Reggie Virgil

-1.0

Q4 13:26

Will Hammond run for 5 yds to the ASU 17

0.0

Q4 12:42

Will Hammond run for 5 yds to the ASU 12 for a 1ST down

+0.5

Q4 12:03

Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 4 yds to the ASU 8

+1.9

Q4 11:34

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Cameron Dickey

0.0

Q4 11:31

Will Hammond pass incomplete

0.0

Q4 11:31

Timeout Texas Tech, clock 11:31

+0.6

Q4 11:24

Cameron Dickey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 9

0.0

Q4 11:13

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the ASU 16

+12.2

Q4 10:45

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Cameron Harpole

+1.3

Q4 10:31

Raleek Brown run for 22 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 10:08

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Demarius Robinson for 5 yds to the ASU 43

+0.1

Q4 9:33

Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST down

+0.1

Q4 8:46

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cameron Harpole for 7 yds to the TTU 45

+0.1

Q4 8:05

Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the TTU 44

+0.1

Q4 7:31

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Malik McClain

0.0

Q4 7:21

punt blocked by Oliver Miles III blocked by Oliver Miles III (07:19) Arizona St. punt 0 yards to the TTU44 blocked by Miles III,Oliver recovered by TTU Valsin,Kelby at TTU31 Valsin,Kelby return 21 yards to the ASU48 (Lono-Wong,Blazen). , Kelby Valsin returns for 21 yds to the ASU 48

0.0

Q4 7:14

Will Hammond pass incomplete

-8.4

Q4 7:10

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Caleb Douglas

0.0

Q4 6:57

Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 11 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 6:28

Will Hammond pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 5 yds to the ASU 32

+0.4

Q4 6:20

Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 4 yds to the ASU 28

0.0

Q4 6:06

(06:07) PENALTY TTU False Start (Carter,Davion) 5 yards from ASU28 to ASU33. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q4 5:36

Will Hammond run for 8 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 4:53

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 9 yds to the ASU 16

0.0

Q4 4:37

Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST down

+2.2

Q4 4:17

Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 6 yds to the ASU 3

+0.6

Q4 3:57

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 2 yds to the ASU 1

0.0

Q4 3:45

Will Hammond run for 1 yd for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)

-22.5

Q4 3:45

Stone Harrington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+4.2

Q4 3:40

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Raleek Brown

+13.0

Q4 3:29

Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 27

0.0

Q4 2:53

Sam Leavitt sacked by Lee Hunter for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 19

+2.1

Q4 2:05

Kanyon Floyd punt for 29 yds , Coy Eakin returns for 36 yds to the ASU 12

+2.7

Q4 2:00

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds for a TD (W. Hammond Run For Two-point Conversion)

-66.4

Q4 2:00

Hammond,Will pass attempt failed PENALTY ASU Holding (Abney II,Keith) 2 yards from ASU03 to ASU01. NO PLAY.

0.0

Q4 2:00

Stone Harrington kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+1.2

Q4 1:48

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the ASU 31

+6.2

Q4 1:39

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Chamon Metayer

0.0

Q4 1:36

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for 6 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q4 1:31

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson

0.0

Q4 1:17

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 8 yds to the ASU 45

-1.2

Q4 1:05

Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jaren Hamilton

+0.5

Q4 0:55

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 33 yds to the TTU 22 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q4 0:55

Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:55

+2.9

Q4 0:51

Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 8 yds to the TTU 14

0.0

Q4 0:51

Timeout Texas Tech, clock 00:51

0.0

Q4 0:46

(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete short middle to Tyson,Jordyn thrown to TTU00 PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Pollock,Brice) 12 yards from TTU14 to TTU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

-0.8

Q4 0:38

Timeout Texas Tech, clock 00:38

-0.2

Q4 0:37

Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the TTU 1

0.0

Q4 0:34

Raleek Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)

+61.8

Q4 0:33

(00:34) Gomez,Jesus kickoff 37 yards to the TTU28 Low,Trent return 0 yards to the TTU28 (Bimage Jr.,Rodney) PENALTY ASU Offside (Sample,Zechariah) 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU30. NO PLAY.

-65.1

Q4 0:25

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 43 yds , Cameron Dickey return for 9 yds to the TTU 36

+64.9

Q4 0:18

Will Hammond run for 12 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST down

-13.1

Q4 0:10

Will Hammond run for 12 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q4 0:07

Will Hammond pass incomplete

-1.0

Q4 0:07

Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:07

0.0

Q4 0:03

Will Hammond pass complete to Coy Eakin for 12 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 0:03

Timeout Arizona State, clock 00:03

-1.7

Q4 0:00

Will Hammond pass incomplete to Reggie Virgil

-0.1

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 2:00

Will Hammond pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds for a TD (W. Hammond Run For Two-point Conversion)

-66.4

KEY PLAY · Q4 0:33

(00:34) Gomez,Jesus kickoff 37 yards to the TTU28 Low,Trent return 0 yards to the TTU28 (Bimage Jr.,Rodney) PENALTY ASU Offside (Sample,Zechariah) 5 yards from ASU35 to ASU30. NO PLAY.

-65.1

KEY PLAY · Q4 0:25

Jesus Gomez kickoff for 43 yds , Cameron Dickey return for 9 yds to the TTU 36

+64.9