2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreASU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:36 · Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsPregame priorTime remainingHome team on offenseTwo-minute warning
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 2:34: J. Gomez 38 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +0.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 1:04: NaQuari Rogers 22 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick) — UTAH win probability +0.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 4:32: Utah Penalty, delay of game (Aliki Vimahi) to the UTAH 3 for a 1ST down — UTAH win probability +3.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 0:45: Devon Dampier 9 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick) — ASU win probability +0.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 10:05: Byrd Ficklin 4 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick) — ASU win probability +2.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 9:56UTAH 4th & 2 at ASU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.2%56% to convertField goal73.1%−0.186% to makePunt72.5%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:34ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:36ASU 4th & 7 at UTAH 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.4%37% to convertField goal25.2%−0.232% to makePunt25.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:34ASU 4th & 13 at UTAH 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call25.1%74% to makePunt23.0%−2.0average punt
- Q1 0:47UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 46, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it71.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.6%average punt
- Q2 14:32ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 9, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it26.5%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.4%average punt
- Q2 12:28UTAH 4th & 1 at ASU 38, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.7%70% to convertField goal70.8%−0.938% to makePunt70.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 5:59ASU 4th & 1 at UTAH 31, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%71% to convertField goal29.6%−1.654% to makePunt28.6%−2.5average punt
- Q2 3:11ASU 4th & 5 at UTAH 12, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snapGo for it30.7%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call30.8%86% to makePunt26.2%−4.6average punt
- Q3 13:43ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.948% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, down 1Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 31.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.0%−1.648% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt34.7%average punt
- Q4 3:25ASU 4th & 3 at UTAH 3, down 1Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 41.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.8%−1.044% to convertField goal49.8%93% to makePunt24.6%−25.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:56UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0469% → 64%
Q1 14:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
68.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 13 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
66.1%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Ryan Davis, broken up by Keith Abney II for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, off-side (Keyshaun Elliott) to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
66.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the ASU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2FG19 plays · 54 yds · 7:2235% → 42%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.3%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jaren Hamilton, broken up by Elijah DavisSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+7
60.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
58.9%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malik McClain, broken up by Blake CottonSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+15
59.2%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Smith Snowden) to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
58.6%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the UTAH 18 Arizona State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jimeto Obigbo) to the UTAH 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4754% → 51%
ASUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0648% → 47%
UTAHDrive 5TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0451% → 50%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
50.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 9 yds to the ASU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6MISSED FG17 plays · 63 yds · 8:1653% → 58%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
44.9%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malik McClain for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Smith Snowden) to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5940% → 34%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
32.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the ASU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8END OF HALF7 plays · 11 yds · 0:5671% → 71%
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
29.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 6 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
28.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Raleek Brown for 10 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
26.5%
Jeff Sims run for no gain to the ASU 47 Arizona State Penalty, Offensive holding (Josh Atkins) to the ASU 37Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
29.2%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson, broken up by Smith SnowdenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1758% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3540% → 45%
Q3 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+56
39.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 56 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2859% → 61%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
38.7%
Jeff Sims sacked by Logan Fano for a loss of 2 yards to the ASU 44Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+12
39.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malik McClain for 12 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
39.2%
Utah Penalty, delay of game (Aliki Vimahi) to the UTAH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD9 plays · 64 yds · 3:4235% → 38%
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+11
33.9%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 11 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 5 yds · 3:3862% → 58%
Q3 0:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jordyn Tyson, broken up by Smith SnowdenSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
34.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 11 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
32.0%
Jeff Sims sacked by John Henry Daley and Trey Reynolds for a loss of 10 yards to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 20
OWN 46
-11
38.0%
Jeff Sims sacked by Levani Damuni for a loss of 11 yards to the ASU 35Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 31
OWN 35
-5
40.6%
Jeff Sims sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 36
OWN 30
+24
41.7%
Matt McKenzie punt for 36 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for 24 yds to the ASU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4439% → 45%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
39.3%
Wayshawn Parker run for 19 yds to the ASU 23 Arizona State Penalty, personal foul (Elijah O'Neal) to the ASU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15DOWNS18 plays · 72 yds · 6:4064% → 46%
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
39.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to AJ Ia for 10 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
37.9%
Jeff Sims sacked by Nate Tilmon for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
46.3%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Derek Eusebio, broken up by Moroni AnaeSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+15
50.1%
Demarius Robinson run for no gain to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST down Utah Penalty, personal foul (Dallas Vakalahi) to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
44.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Moss for 12 yds to the UTAH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
45.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Demarius Robinson for 2 yds to the UTAH 23Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+16
47.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Demarius Robinson for 16 yds to the UTAH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16Uncategorized5 plays · 42 yds · 2:4353% → 43%
Q4 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+32
54.5%
Byrd Ficklin pass complete to Otto Tia for 32 yds to the UTAH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+57
TD · Q3 4:32
Utah Penalty, delay of game (Aliki Vimahi) to the UTAH 3 for a 1ST down
+3.5
TD · Q4 10:05
Byrd Ficklin 4 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
-2.4