2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Cole Ballard pass incomplete to Bryson Canty
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:40: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Leshon Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — KU win probability +7.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:17: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — KU win probability +5.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Laith Marjan 55 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +3.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 7:28: Will Hammond run for 20 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK) — TTU win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:12: Cameron Dickey run for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) — TTU win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 10:49KU 4th & 26 at KU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.0%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q1 7:09KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q1 3:38TTU 4th & 6 at KU 7, up 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call84.5%91% to makePunt83.3%−1.2average punt
- Q2 14:30KU 4th & 11 at KU 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snapGo for it12.4%−1.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.8%average punt
- Q2 11:03TTU 4th & 15 at KU 22, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it86.6%−1.216% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%72% to makePunt84.4%−3.4average punt
- Q2 6:07TTU 4th & 24 at TTU 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it83.4%−2.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%average punt
- Q2 4:35KU 4th & 6 at KU 48, down 14Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:28TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%average punt
- Q3 12:11TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%average punt
- Q3 9:31KU 4th & 2 at KU 28, down 4Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it23.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 5:05KU 4th & 18 at KU 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it11.3%−1.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q3 4:30TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 41, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it87.3%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%average punt
- Q3 1:12KU 4th & 10 at TTU 40, down 11Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.1%30% to convertField goal11.8%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call12.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:08KU 4th & 27 at TTU 44, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.87% to convertField goal2.6%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q4 7:18TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 40, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q4 4:26KU 4th & 30 at KU 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q4 1:07KU 4th & 5 at KU 49, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:00KU 4th & 16 at TTU 30, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.116% to convertField goal0.3%56% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:39TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick83.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:40KU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.6%97% to makeGo for two13.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:17KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%97% to makeGo for two18.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:28TTU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.3%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:12TTU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:31TTU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 3:5916% → 17%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
83.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 10 yds to the KU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.9%
Cole Ballard run for 11 yds to the KU 36 Cole Ballard fumbled, recovered by TTU David BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD1 play · 71 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4184% → 85%
Q1 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
85.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (J. Miller II Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2715% → 15%
Q1 7:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
85.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 5 yds to the KU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG11 plays · 69 yds · 3:1586% → 87%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
85.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the TTU 30Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
86.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 13 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
86.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 3 yds to the KU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:4513% → 12%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
87.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Laquan Robinson for 11 yds to the KU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Keaton Kubecka for 4 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
87.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Romello Height for a loss of 7 yards to the KU 28Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+6
88.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 6 yds Boden Groen fumbled, recovered by KU Boden GroenSimilar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+2
88.1%
Finn Lappin punt for 48 yds , Coy Eakin returns for 2 yds to the TTU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FG12 plays · 58 yds · 3:1788% → 93%
Q2 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+21
88.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 21 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
89.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 26 yds to the KU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-3
89.0%
Behren Morton sacked by Leroy Harris III for a loss of 3 yards to the KU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:118% → 16%
Q2 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
92.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 18 yds to the KU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-5
91.7%
(09:31) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass complete deep left to Wentz,Levi caught at TTU26, for 23 yards to the TTU26 (Pollock,Brice) PENALTY KAN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Groen,Boden) 5 yards from TTU49 to KAN46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
92.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 14 yds to the TTU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
91.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Bryson Canty for 20 yds to the TTU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Leshon Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 0:3387% → 86%
KUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1914% → 14%
TTUDrive 12INT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0188% → 88%
Q2 3:24
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+9
87.6%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 9 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
88.1%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Dickey,Cameron rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TTU35 (Lathan,Trey) PENALTY TTU Holding (Sampson,Howard) 10 yards from TTU26 to TTU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 16
OWN 20
0
87.9%
Will Hammond pass intercepted Taylor Davis return for no gain to the TTU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD8 plays · 49 yds · 0:5714% → 19%
Q2 1:51
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+14
86.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 14 yds to the TTU 40Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+19
84.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 19 yds to the TTU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-8
85.0%
Jalon Daniels sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the TTU 29Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 18
OPP 29
+5
86.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 5 yds to the TTU 24Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+24
80.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 24 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 0:4483% → 83%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.3%
Will Hammond pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 4 yds to the TTU 29Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
82.7%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Hammond,Will pass incomplete deep right to Douglas,Caleb thrown to KAN49 broken up by Graham II,DJ PENALTY KAN Offside (Finkley,Justice) 5 yards from TTU29 to TTU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.1%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for no gain to the TTU 38Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
83.8%
Will Hammond pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 4 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+16
82.5%
Jack Burgess punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KU 34 , Tate Nagy returns for 16 yds to the KU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15FG8 plays · 29 yds · 0:2219% → 22%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
80.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds to the TTU 45Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
81.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 3 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
80.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the TTU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4278% → 76%
KUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3223% → 22%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the KU 25Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
76.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds to the KU 29Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+15
78.3%
Finn Lappin punt for 50 yds , Coy Eakin returns for 15 yds to the TTU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4479% → 89%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
79.0%
Will Hammond pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 7 yds to the TTU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1913% → 12%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
86.7%
Jalon Daniels sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 15 yards to the KU 10 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by KU Jalon Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+4
87.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds to the KU 17Similar
Q3 5:05
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
88.1%
Finn Lappin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2989% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0113% → 12%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
87.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for 4 yds to the KU 23Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-1
88.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Cam Pickett for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 22Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-9
86.1%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Jacob Rodriguez for a loss of 9 yards to the TTU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0089% → 97%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
89.4%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Carter,Davion) 5 yards from TTU20 to TTU15. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 4:044% → 3%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.0%
PENALTY TTU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from KAN25 to KAN40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
96.2%
(13:52) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete deep left to Wentz,Levi thrown to TTU32 PENALTY TTU Holding (Pollock,Brice) 10 yards from KAN40 to KAN50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+19
96.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 19 yds to the TTU 27Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
95.5%
(12:57) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon rush left for 15 yards gain to the TTU12 (Curry,John) PENALTY KAN Holding (Baynes,Kobe) 10 yards from TTU27 to TTU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
96.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 1 yd to the TTU 36Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 19
OPP 36
-10
96.7%
(12:05) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass complete short left to Canty,Bryson caught at TTU25, for 11 yards to the TTU25 (Pollock,Brice) PENALTY KAN Holding (Cruz Jr.,Enrique) 10 yards from TTU36 to TTU46. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 2:4098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25PUNT8 plays · -8 yds · 2:463% → 2%
Q4 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
97.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Levi Wentz for 10 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
97.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jalon rush left for 2 yards gain to the KAN42, out of bounds at KAN42 PENALTY KAN Holding (Herring,Amir) 10 yards from KAN40 to KAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+6
98.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 6 yds to the KU 39Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-5
98.2%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Baynes,Kobe) 5 yards from KAN39 to KAN34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-14
98.3%
Jalon Daniels sacked by A.J. Holmes Jr. for a loss of 14 yards to the KU 20Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 30
OWN 20
+36
98.3%
Finn Lappin punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KU 30 , Coy Eakin returns for 36 yds to the KU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
KUDrive 27DOWNS15 plays · 45 yds · 3:240% → 1%
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
Texas Tech Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the KU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.8%
Cole Ballard pass complete to Harry Stewart III for 3 yds to the KU 47Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+10
99.5%
Cole Ballard pass complete to Harry Stewart III for 10 yds to the TTU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.3%
Cole Ballard pass complete to Boden Groen for 4 yds to the TTU 20Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-10
99.4%
Cole Ballard sacked by Terrell Tilmon for a loss of 10 yards to the TTU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:28
Will Hammond run for 20 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 6:40
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Leshon Williams for 10 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q4 14:12
Cameron Dickey run for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
+7