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TCU

TCU 28 at Kansas State 41

KSU
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:09 · Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds , Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+7.6Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+2.1Pregame prior−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:35: Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +9.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:45: Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q2 2:02: Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:28: Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:06: Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +10.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:20KSU 4th & 9 at TCU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31KSU 4th & 25 at TCU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:28TCU 4th & 4 at KSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:10KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:31KSU 4th & 10 at TCU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41TCU 4th & 14 at KSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:07TCU 4th & 5 at KSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−1.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:09KSU 4th & 19 at KSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09KSU 4th & 19 at KSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:57TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:34KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−2.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:06TCU 4th & 2 at KSU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:34KSU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:15TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 25, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:06KSU 4th & 3 at TCU 18, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 5:35TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:45KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:28KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:57KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:06TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:22KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:05TCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:26TCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:3043% → 44%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
43.1%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 22Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
43.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 4 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+14
43.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 14 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.8%
Joe Jackson run for 5 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
44.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
44.4%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
44.6%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
44.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Joe JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
44.1%
Simon McClannan punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3756% → 55%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.1%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
44.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-5
44.6%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Hooper,Hudson) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
44.7%
Ethan Craw punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 10 yds · 3:5145% → 45%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
44.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 9 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
45.2%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
45.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
45.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+14
44.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
45.8%
PENALTY KSTATE False Start (Tibbs,Jaron) 5 yards from TCU27 to TCU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-3
45.7%
Avery Johnson sacked by Austin Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+4
45.6%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 14
OPP 31
-5
45.5%
Kansas State Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 20
OPP 37
-5
45.0%
PENALTY KSTATE Delay Of Game (McClannan,Simon) 5 yards from TCU37 to TCU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 25
OPP 42
0
45.0%
Simon McClannan punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4DOWNS
16 plays · 60 yds · 5:5655% → 55%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
45.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
44.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
45.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 8 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
44.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach Chapman) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
44.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 9 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
44.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
44.4%
Josh Hoover run for 6 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
43.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 2 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+8
43.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 8 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
43.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-2
43.7%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+8
44.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 20
0
45.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:2947% → 48%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
46.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 11 yds to the KSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
47.1%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
47.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
46.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 8 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.6%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
47.9%
DeVon Rice run for 5 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
48.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
48.1%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
49.9%
Monterrio Elston Jr. run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-10
50.1%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass complete short left to Oakley,Garrett caught at TCU32, for 19 yards to the TCU26 (Clark,Bud) PENALTY KSTATE Holding (Pastore,John) 10 yards from TCU45 to KSTATE45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 18
OWN 45
0
48.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand BradleySimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 18
OWN 45
+8
47.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
47.6%
Simon McClannan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 4:3953% → 67%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
47.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
46.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 13 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
45.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
45.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 6 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
44.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 16 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
43.3%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
42.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
42.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+27
44.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 27 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.0%
Josh Hoover run for no gain to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4539% → 54%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.7%
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
38.5%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
39.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 31 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
42.7%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
54.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:2753% → 36%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
62.9%
Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
63.7%
PENALTY KSTATE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Fair,Wesley) 15 yards from KSTATE35 to KSTATE20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:0538% → 34%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 5 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
60.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan DwyerSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
60.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
62.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 6 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-10
61.9%
(01:00) Shotgun Hoover,Josh rush left for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE33 (Payne,VJ) PENALTY TCU Holding (Taylor-Whitfield,Ben) 10 yards from KSTATE38 to KSTATE48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
65.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
67.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by Kansas State at KSTATE05 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:4638% → 36%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
62.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
61.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to DJ RogersSimilar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
61.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+16
62.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 16 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
60.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
60.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
61.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
64.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5468% → 65%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.1%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
67.8%
Avery Johnson sacked by Devean Deal for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 30Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 19
OWN 30
0
66.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds , Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
65.3%
Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds , Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:3433% → 20%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-8
66.6%
Josh Hoover sacked by Desmond Purnell for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 18
OWN 15
-25
80.4%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3120% → 18%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.0%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game (Hoover,Josh) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
80.3%
(10:27) PENALTY TCU False Start (McAlister,Eric) 5 yards from TCU20 to TCU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
80.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-5
81.0%
TCU Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Josh Hoover) to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+13
81.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 13 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 53 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 4 yds to the KSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5484% → 95%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
83.5%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+21
84.1%
Joe Jackson run for 21 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to DeVon RiceSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 7 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+14
86.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 14 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
87.3%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
87.4%
Joe Jackson run for 8 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
87.4%
Joe Jackson run for no gain to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
87.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
94.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 17 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:385% → 14%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.5%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+27
95.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+41
95.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 41 yds to the KSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
95.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 4 yds to the KSU 2Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3791% → 99%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.8%
Joe Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
91.8%
Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
92.4%
DeVon Rice run for 3 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
92.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DeVon Rice for 6 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
92.8%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 44 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by TCU Avery Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.2%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
93.7%
Joe Jackson run for 11 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.1%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
94.5%
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+9
94.6%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass incomplete short right to Oakley,Garrett thrown to TCU08, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Obiazor,Namdi) 9 yards from TCU22 to TCU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
94.6%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+2
94.9%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:111% → 6%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.6%
(10:18) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right thrown to TCU30 broken up by Obiazor,Chiddi PENALTY TCU Holding (Harris,Quinton) 10 yards from TCU25 to TCU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+85
93.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 85 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4895% → 96%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.1%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
95.3%
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
95.6%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 34Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.5%
Simon McClannan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:256% → 6%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-21
94.4%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 21 yds to the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4197% → 98%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
96.5%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+3
96.6%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
97.0%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
97.1%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
97.4%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
98.2%
Luis Rodriguez 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:162% → 2%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent BattleSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed SmallSimilar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent BattleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0299% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
98.5%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+7
98.6%
Joe Jackson run for 7 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
98.7%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
99.5%
Luis Rodriguez 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:271% → 3%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.5%
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Trent Battle run for no gain to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
99.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 15 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 16 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
96.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 37 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.8%
(00:24) Kneel down by Kansas State at KSTATE23 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 2:02
Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 10:28
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q2 2:45
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com