TCU
TCU 28 at Kansas State 41
KSU2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey play
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KSU · Drive 1PUNT · 10 plays · 37 yds
Q1 14:56
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds , DeVon Rice return for 21 yds to the KSU 21
46.0%
0.0
Q1 14:50
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 22
49.0%
+3.0
Q1 14:02
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 4 yds to the KSU 26
49.2%
+0.3
Q1 13:25
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 14 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST down
49.2%
0.0
Q1 13:09
Joe Jackson run for 5 yds to the KSU 45
50.1%
+0.9
Q1 12:37
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST down
50.4%
+0.2
Q1 12:01
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 42
51.7%
+1.3
Q1 11:32
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Oakley
51.7%
0.0
Q1 11:29
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Joe Jackson
51.5%
-0.3
Q1 11:20
Simon McClannan punt for 42 yds for a touchback
51.0%
-0.4
TCU · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q1 11:10
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the TCU 25
45.3%
-5.7
Q1 10:46
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
45.3%
0.0
Q1 10:42
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
45.3%
0.0
Q1 10:42
PENALTY TCU False Start (Hooper,Hudson) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.
45.3%
0.0
Q1 10:33
Ethan Craw punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KSU 48
45.3%
-5.4
KSU · Drive 3PUNT · 13 plays · 10 yds
Q1 10:34
Timeout Kansas State, clock 10:34
50.8%
+5.4
Q1 10:22
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 9 yds to the TCU 43
49.4%
+4.1
Q1 9:54
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down
50.8%
+1.3
Q1 9:31
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 41
51.1%
+0.3
Q1 9:01
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Oakley
51.1%
0.0
Q1 8:47
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down
50.4%
-0.7
Q1 8:29
Timeout TCU, clock 08:29
50.1%
-0.3
Q1 8:29
PENALTY KSTATE False Start (Tibbs,Jaron) 5 yards from TCU27 to TCU32. NO PLAY.
50.1%
0.0
Q1 8:21
Avery Johnson sacked by Austin Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 35
50.1%
0.0
Q1 7:45
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 31
50.1%
0.0
Q1 7:05
Kansas State Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the TCU 37
49.9%
-0.3
Q1 6:36
PENALTY KSTATE Delay Of Game (McClannan,Simon) 5 yards from TCU37 to TCU42. NO PLAY.
49.4%
-0.4
Q1 6:31
Simon McClannan punt for 42 yds for a touchback
49.5%
0.0
TCU · Drive 4DOWNS · 16 plays · 60 yds
Q1 6:31
Timeout Kansas State, clock 06:31
43.4%
-6.1
Q1 6:24
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the TCU 28
43.4%
0.0
Q1 6:01
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down
43.4%
0.0
Q1 5:37
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
43.4%
0.0
Q1 5:29
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 8 yds to the TCU 40
43.6%
+0.3
Q1 4:42
Kevorian Barnes run for 6 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach Chapman) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down
42.7%
-0.9
Q1 4:12
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 9 yds to the KSU 45
41.6%
-1.1
Q1 3:49
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST down
41.4%
-0.3
Q1 3:12
Josh Hoover run for 6 yds to the KSU 36
41.2%
-0.1
Q1 2:38
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 2 yds to the KSU 34
40.8%
-0.4
Q1 2:08
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 8 yds to the KSU 26 for a 1ST down
40.9%
0.0
Q1 1:48
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
41.8%
+0.9
Q1 1:39
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 28
41.8%
0.0
Q1 0:49
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the KSU 20
41.8%
0.0
Q1 0:32
Timeout Kansas State, clock 00:32
42.7%
+0.9
Q1 0:28
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
42.7%
0.0
KSU · Drive 5PUNT · 13 plays · 33 yds
Q1 0:00
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 11 yds to the KSU 31 for a 1ST down
47.1%
+4.4
Q2 14:54
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 34
47.1%
0.0
Q2 14:21
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand Bradley
47.2%
+0.1
Q2 14:08
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 8 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST down
47.2%
0.0
Q2 13:44
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce Brown
48.1%
+0.9
Q2 13:38
DeVon Rice run for 5 yds to the KSU 47
48.1%
0.0
Q2 12:43
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 49
47.9%
-0.3
Q2 12:10
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down
48.5%
+0.6
Q2 11:34
Monterrio Elston Jr. run for 2 yds to the TCU 45
49.1%
+0.6
Q2 11:02
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass complete short left to Oakley,Garrett caught at TCU32, for 19 yards to the TCU26 (Clark,Bud) PENALTY KSTATE Holding (Pastore,John) 10 yards from TCU45 to KSTATE45. NO PLAY.
49.5%
+0.4
Q2 10:44
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jerand Bradley
49.8%
+0.3
Q2 10:39
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 8 yds to the TCU 47
49.6%
-0.2
Q2 10:31
Simon McClannan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 7
50.3%
+0.6
TCU · Drive 6TD · 13 plays · 93 yds
Q2 10:14
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST down
45.7%
-4.6
Q2 9:55
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 13 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down
45.7%
0.0
Q2 9:22
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 7 yds to the TCU 38
45.7%
0.0
Q2 8:56
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer
44.8%
-0.9
Q2 8:45
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 6 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down
44.8%
0.0
Q2 8:01
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 16 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST down
42.0%
-2.8
Q2 7:41
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST down
40.9%
-1.0
Q2 7:17
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
40.9%
0.0
Q2 7:00
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 28
40.9%
0.0
Q2 6:28
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 27 yds to the KSU 1 for a 1ST down
40.9%
0.0
Q2 6:07
Josh Hoover run for no gain to the KSU 1
40.9%
0.0
Q2 5:39
Timeout TCU, clock 05:39
41.0%
+0.1
Q2 5:35
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
25.6%
-15.4
KSU · Drive 7TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q2 5:35
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
27.0%
+1.5
Q2 5:30
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Oakley
30.6%
+3.6
Q2 5:24
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the KSU 31
30.6%
0.0
Q2 4:38
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST down
31.8%
+1.2
Q2 3:43
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 31 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down
31.8%
0.0
Q2 3:15
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 32
34.5%
+2.7
Q2 2:45
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
54.1%
+19.6
TCU · Drive 8FUMBLE TD · 4 plays · -10 yds
Q2 2:39
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 25 yds to the TCU 25
51.8%
-2.3
Q2 2:29
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 28
45.0%
-6.8
Q2 2:02
Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
64.5%
+19.5
Q2 2:02
PENALTY KSTATE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Fair,Wesley) 15 yards from KSTATE35 to KSTATE20. NO PLAY.
51.7%
-12.8
TCU · Drive 9PUNT · 9 plays · 14 yds
Q2 1:58
Simon McClannan kickoff for 63 yds , Ed Small return for 21 yds to the TCU 38
67.3%
+15.6
Q2 1:46
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 5 yds to the TCU 43
64.0%
-3.3
Q2 1:29
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST down
63.7%
-0.3
Q2 1:20
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jordan Dwyer
62.6%
-1.0
Q2 1:11
Josh Hoover pass incomplete
62.7%
+0.1
Q2 1:00
Timeout Kansas State, clock 01:00
65.7%
+3.0
Q2 0:59
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 6 yds to the KSU 38
65.3%
-0.4
Q2 0:53
(01:00) Shotgun Hoover,Josh rush left for 5 yards gain to the KSTATE33 (Payne,VJ) PENALTY TCU Holding (Taylor-Whitfield,Ben) 10 yards from KSTATE38 to KSTATE48. NO PLAY.
65.7%
+0.4
Q2 0:41
Ethan Craw punt for 41 yds
65.9%
+0.2
KSU · Drive 10END OF HALF · 1 play · -2 yds
Q2 0:00
(00:37) Kneel down by Kansas State at KSTATE05 for loss of 2 yards.
70.9%
+5.0
TCU · Drive 11DOWNS · 11 plays · 34 yds
Q3 14:53
Simon McClannan kickoff for 64 yds , Major Everhart return for 26 yds to the TCU 27
69.1%
-1.8
Q3 14:53
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
62.7%
-6.4
Q3 14:53
Kevorian Barnes run for 11 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down
62.7%
0.0
Q3 14:22
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to DJ Rogers
62.2%
-0.6
Q3 14:13
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 2 yds to the TCU 40
62.2%
0.0
Q3 13:41
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 16 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST down
62.2%
0.0
Q3 13:09
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds to the KSU 42
60.8%
-1.4
Q3 12:45
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the KSU 39
60.4%
-0.4
Q3 12:12
Josh Hoover pass incomplete
60.2%
-0.2
Q3 12:12
Timeout TCU, clock 12:12
61.1%
+0.9
Q3 12:07
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
61.1%
0.0
KSU · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · -9 yds
Q3 12:03
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron Tibbs
71.7%
+10.5
Q3 11:54
Avery Johnson sacked by Devean Deal for a loss of 9 yards to the KSU 30
71.7%
0.0
Q3 11:18
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron Tibbs
71.1%
-0.5
Q3 11:09
Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds , Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 33
70.6%
-0.6
Q3 11:09
Simon McClannan punt for 37 yds , Ed Small returns for no gain to the TCU 23
70.6%
0.0
TCU · Drive 13INT TD · 2 plays · -8 yds
Q3 11:02
Josh Hoover sacked by Desmond Purnell for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 15
62.9%
-7.7
Q3 10:28
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
81.4%
+18.6
TCU · Drive 14PUNT · 7 plays · 0 yds
Q3 10:28
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
84.1%
+2.7
Q3 10:28
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game (Hoover,Josh) 5 yards from TCU25 to TCU20. NO PLAY.
81.4%
-2.7
Q3 10:28
(10:27) PENALTY TCU False Start (McAlister,Eric) 5 yards from TCU20 to TCU15. NO PLAY.
81.4%
0.0
Q3 10:21
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 16
81.4%
0.0
Q3 9:49
TCU Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Josh Hoover) to the TCU 12
81.4%
0.0
Q3 9:25
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 13 yds to the TCU 25
81.4%
0.0
Q3 8:57
Ethan Craw punt for 53 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 4 yds to the KSU 26
81.4%
0.0
KSU · Drive 15TD · 10 plays · 74 yds
Q3 8:51
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 28
84.3%
+2.9
Q3 8:14
Joe Jackson run for 21 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST down
85.2%
+0.9
Q3 7:29
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to DeVon Rice
85.3%
+0.1
Q3 7:18
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 7 yds to the TCU 44
85.3%
0.0
Q3 6:37
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 14 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST down
85.3%
0.0
Q3 6:03
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 29
85.3%
0.0
Q3 5:34
Joe Jackson run for 8 yds to the TCU 21
85.6%
+0.3
Q3 5:13
Joe Jackson run for no gain to the TCU 21
85.6%
0.0
Q3 4:34
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST down
85.6%
0.0
Q3 3:57
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 17 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
94.2%
+8.6
TCU · Drive 16TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q3 3:57
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
94.2%
0.0
Q3 3:44
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the TCU 26
91.5%
-2.7
Q3 3:14
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 27 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST down
91.5%
0.0
Q3 2:46
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 41 yds to the KSU 6 for a 1ST down
91.5%
0.0
Q3 2:33
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
91.3%
-0.2
Q3 2:23
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 4 yds to the KSU 2
91.3%
0.0
Q3 2:10
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
91.4%
+0.1
Q3 2:06
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 2 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
81.6%
-9.8
KSU · Drive 17TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:06
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.3%
+0.7
Q3 1:59
Joe Jackson run for 7 yds to the KSU 32
87.1%
+4.8
Q3 1:28
Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST down
87.5%
+0.4
Q3 0:54
DeVon Rice run for 3 yds to the KSU 47
88.1%
+0.6
Q3 0:00
Avery Johnson pass complete to DeVon Rice for 6 yds to the TCU 47
88.1%
0.0
Q4 14:32
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 44 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by TCU Avery Johnson for a 1ST down
89.2%
+1.1
Q4 14:16
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 40
89.2%
0.0
Q4 13:36
Joe Jackson run for 11 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down
89.4%
+0.2
Q4 12:52
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 28
89.4%
0.0
Q4 12:17
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the TCU 22
89.4%
0.0
Q4 11:48
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass incomplete short right to Oakley,Garrett thrown to TCU08, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Obiazor,Namdi) 9 yards from TCU22 to TCU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
89.4%
0.0
Q4 11:35
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14
89.4%
0.0
Q4 11:01
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 12
89.4%
0.0
Q4 10:22
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
95.7%
+6.3
TCU · Drive 18TD · 3 plays · 75 yds
Q4 10:22
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.7%
0.0
Q4 10:16
(10:18) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right thrown to TCU30 broken up by Obiazor,Chiddi PENALTY TCU Holding (Harris,Quinton) 10 yards from TCU25 to TCU15. NO PLAY.
92.7%
-3.0
Q4 10:05
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 85 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
88.7%
-4.0
KSU · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q4 10:05
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.7%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 27
89.6%
+0.9
Q4 9:16
Joe Jackson run for 6 yds to the KSU 33
89.7%
+0.1
Q4 8:32
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 34
89.7%
0.0
Q4 8:02
Simon McClannan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 33
89.7%
0.0
TCU · Drive 20INT · 2 plays · 2 yds
Q4 7:48
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 2 yds to the TCU 35
89.4%
-0.3
Q4 7:23
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 21 yds to the TCU 21
89.4%
0.0
KSU · Drive 21FG · 7 plays · 20 yds
Q4 7:15
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the TCU 13
89.7%
+0.3
Q4 6:42
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST down
89.7%
0.0
Q4 6:00
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 8
89.7%
0.0
Q4 5:22
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 5
89.7%
0.0
Q4 4:38
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 1
89.7%
0.0
Q4 4:38
Timeout TCU, clock 04:38
89.7%
0.0
Q4 4:34
Luis Rodriguez 19 yd FG GOOD
91.7%
+2.1
TCU · Drive 22DOWNS · 5 plays · 0 yds
Q4 4:34
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.7%
0.0
Q4 4:31
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent Battle
91.5%
-0.3
Q4 4:27
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
91.5%
0.0
Q4 4:21
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Ed Small
91.8%
+0.3
Q4 4:15
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Trent Battle
91.8%
0.0
KSU · Drive 23FG · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q4 4:08
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28
91.9%
+0.1
Q4 3:23
Joe Jackson run for 7 yds to the TCU 21
92.0%
+0.1
Q4 2:46
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 18
92.0%
0.0
Q4 2:10
Timeout Kansas State, clock 02:10
92.0%
0.0
Q4 2:06
Luis Rodriguez 36 yd FG GOOD
94.1%
+2.1
TCU · Drive 24TD · 6 plays · 73 yds
Q4 1:59
Simon McClannan kickoff for 64 yds , Major Everhart return for 26 yds to the TCU 27
94.3%
+0.2
Q4 1:53
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the TCU 32
93.0%
-1.4
Q4 1:30
Trent Battle run for no gain to the TCU 32
93.0%
0.0
Q4 0:58
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 15 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down
93.0%
0.0
Q4 0:41
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 16 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST down
93.0%
0.0
Q4 0:26
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 37 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
87.4%
-5.5
KSU · Drive 25END OF GAME · 2 plays · -2 yds
Q4 0:26
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
88.0%
+0.5
Q4 0:00
(00:24) Kneel down by Kansas State at KSTATE23 for loss of 2 yards.
89.3%
+1.3
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:45
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 32 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+19.6
FUMBLE · Q2 2:02
Ed Small run for a loss of 13 yards Ed Small fumbled, recovered by TCU Wesley Fair for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+19.5
TD · Q3 10:28
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Desmond Purnell return for 25 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+18.6