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ISU

Iowa State 17 at Colorado 24

COLO
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:34 · Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior−13.0Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.2Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK) — ISU win probability +12.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:13: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 70 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +12.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:26: Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK) — ISU win probability +15.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:26: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +18.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:13: Alejandro Mata 29 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +8.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 9ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:59ISU 4th & 17 at COLO 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:34COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 22, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:04ISU 4th & 8 at COLO 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00ISU 4th & 9 at COLO 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:48COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:40ISU 4th & 10 at COLO 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:08COLO 4th & 7 at ISU 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:14ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:07COLO 4th & 7 at ISU 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:07COLO 4th & 7 at ISU 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:03COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:07ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.5%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:13COLO 4th & 3 at ISU 11, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%−2.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−18.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:48ISU 4th & 8 at COLO 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00COLO 4th & 14 at ISU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:13COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:26ISU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:26COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 2:4865% → 64%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
35.4%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
35.5%
Abu Sama III run for 12 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+17
35.7%
Abu Sama III run for 17 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
35.8%
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 12
OPP 28
0
35.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
35.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
36.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 12
OPP 28
-5
36.4%
(12:05) PENALTY ISU Delay Of Game 5 yards from COLO28 to COLO33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
36.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4836% → 37%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
36.4%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 6Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
36.6%
Kam Mikell run for no gain to the COLO 6Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+6
36.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 6 yds to the COLO 12Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
36.7%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2763% → 62%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
36.7%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
50
+5
36.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Ryver Peppers for 5 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+1
37.5%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ISU 46Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
37.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5138% → 38%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
37.6%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 14Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
37.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+2
37.7%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
37.8%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1762% → 61%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
38.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 15 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
37.6%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 12
50
+4
38.5%
Iowa State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
38.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 5:0039% → 48%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
38.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Micah WelchSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
38.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Kam MikellSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
38.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
39.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 24 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
40.3%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
50
+8
40.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 8 yds to the ISU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
41.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 7 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+7
41.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
42.1%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete deep left to Miller,Omarion thrown to ISU00 PENALTY ISU Pass Interference (Taylor,Quentin) 15 yards from ISU28 to ISU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
42.1%
Micah Welch run for 7 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
42.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Micah WelchSimilar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+3
41.9%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the ISU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
42.9%
PENALTY COLO False Start (Crisler,Zy) 5 yards from ISU03 to ISU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.9%
Micah Welch run for 8 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4854% → 52%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
46.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 19 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
45.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 9 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
44.5%
Dylan Lee run for 3 yds to the COLO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
45.1%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+3
47.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 3 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
47.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0649% → 48%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
48.6%
Kam Mikell run for 8 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-3
49.6%
Kam Mikell run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 25Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
48.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Zach AtkinsSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
47.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:0352% → 54%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
48.4%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
48.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+21
50.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Eli Green for 21 yds to the COLO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
47.8%
Abu Sama III run for 26 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
46.9%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the COLO 13Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-5
47.1%
(08:18) PENALTY ISU False Start (Miller,Tyler) 5 yards from COLO13 to COLO18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
47.6%
Xavier Townsend run for 4 yds to the COLO 14Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-5
49.1%
(07:14) PENALTY ISU False Start (Black,Brendan) 5 yards from COLO14 to COLO19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
50.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+38
46.1%
Chase Smith 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:1449% → 50%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
49.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 30 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
52.0%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
52.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Quentin GibsonSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
51.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Quentin GibsonSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
50.2%
Damon Greaves punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4252% → 49%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
48.4%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the ISU 9Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
49.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Carson BrownSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
49.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Abu Sama IIISimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
50.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quanell Farrakhan Jr. at the COLO 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0153% → 52%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.0%
Micah Welch run for no gain to the COLO 48Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
53.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 4 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
53.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 4 yds to the ISU 44Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
52.6%
PENALTY COLO Delay Of Game 5 yards from ISU44 to ISU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
51.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 8Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
51.6%
Damon Greaves punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 1:3849% → 68%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
50.6%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+13
51.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Aiden Flora for 13 yds to the ISU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
50.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Aiden Flora for 12 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
49.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 10 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
48.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 16 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
45.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 7 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+16
45.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 16 yds to the COLO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Eli GreenSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
44.5%
Rocco Becht run for 19 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0439% → 40%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
38.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
39.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 17 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+57
40.2%
Buck Buchanan 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3741% → 53%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
41.0%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the COLO 30Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+70
53.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 70 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4148% → 64%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.3%
Abu Sama III run for 8 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+38
50.1%
Abu Sama III run for 38 yds to the COLO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
47.3%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
47.8%
Dylan Lee run for 8 yds to the COLO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
48.0%
Dylan Lee run for 7 yds to the COLO 10Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
48.2%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the COLO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.4%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the COLO 5Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
49.5%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the COLO 1Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
36.5%
PENALTY ISU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Moore,Tyler) 15 yards from ISU35 to ISU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4643% → 65%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
43.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+14
43.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 14 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
45.3%
PENALTY COLO False Start (McGill,Zarian) 5 yards from ISU34 to ISU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+6
41.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 6 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+13
43.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the ISU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
45.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the ISU 17Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
46.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 8 yds to the ISU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
46.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the ISU 5Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
46.7%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the ISU 3Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18INT
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:4341% → 44%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 13 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
57.0%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
56.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
50
0
54.4%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
50
+36
56.1%
Abu Sama III run for 36 yds to the COLO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
52.4%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the COLO 11Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
52.6%
Dylan Lee run for 5 yds to the COLO 6Similar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
55.0%
Gabe Burkle run for 1 yd to the COLO 5Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
57.2%
(00:06) PENALTY COLO Offside (Barnes Jr.,Anquin) 3 yards from COLO05 to COLO02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
53.4%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 4Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
53.5%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 7Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-18
55.9%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Tawfiq Byard return for 18 yds to the COLO 19Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-18
55.9%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Tawfiq Byard return for 18 yds to the COLO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:1566% → 69%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
66.0%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
65.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Omarion MillerSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+1
64.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 16 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Joseph Williams) to the COLO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Sincere BrownSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
66.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 7 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+8
65.8%
Dallan Hayden run for 8 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
69.0%
Dallan Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
67.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 10 yds to the COLO 45Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
70.6%
Micah Welch run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 44Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
68.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Aiden Flora at the ISU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4634% → 30%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
66.0%
Abu Sama III run for 9 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-3
64.6%
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 15Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+3
68.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 3 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
69.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4280% → 89%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
80.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the ISU 14Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
81.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the ISU 11Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
79.9%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the ISU 11Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
88.8%
Alejandro Mata 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1516% → 15%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
84.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 26 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
80.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
81.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
82.6%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
84.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 45 yds · 3:4092% → 96%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.5%
Kam Mikell run for 3 yds to the COLO 18Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+17
92.1%
Dallan Hayden run for 17 yds to the COLO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Dallan Hayden run for 10 yds to the COLO 45 Colorado Penalty, Offensive Holding (Omarion Miller) to the COLO 35Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.6%
Kam Mikell run for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO 33Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-4
96.6%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 29Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+38
96.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 38 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
97.6%
Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the ISU 32Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-3
97.7%
K. Salter takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 35
-2
97.9%
K. Salter takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-3
96.0%
K. Salter takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:26
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 9:26
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 0:22
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com