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UCF

UCF 11 at Cincinnati 20

CIN
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:57 · Max Fletcher punt for 50 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense+15.1Score differential+6.8Garbage-time factor+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:12: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CIN win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:13: Stephen Rusnak 32 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +3.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q3 1:55: Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 12 — CIN win probability +3.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:46: Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the CIN 13 — CIN win probability +2.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:07: Cam Fancher run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Domercant pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:38CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:07CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:59UCF 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:31UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:13CIN 4th & 13 at UCF 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:05UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 49, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:24UCF 4th & 6 at CIN 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08UCF 4th & 6 at CIN 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:57CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:57UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:55UCF 4th & 27 at CIN 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:39CIN 4th & 6 at UCF 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31UCF 4th & 5 at CIN 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:07CIN 4th & 5 at UCF 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:45UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 33, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:13UCF 4th & 15 at CIN 18, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:52CIN 4th & 13 at UCF 37, up 9
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 8:23CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:12CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:07UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1779% → 79%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
79.0%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the CIN 27Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
78.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Noah JenningsSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
78.7%
Max Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Antione Jackson returns for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3821% → 22%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
78.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Max Drag for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
78.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
78.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marcus Burke for 6 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
78.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
77.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 5 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+3
77.6%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
77.6%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the CIN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:2178% → 80%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
78.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 6 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
78.1%
Evan Pryor run for 15 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
78.0%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
79.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 40 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1421% → 21%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.1%
Cam Fancher run for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
78.7%
Cam Fancher run for 11 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
78.8%
(06:58) Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass complete short middle to Thomas Jr.,Duane caught at CIN36, for 35 yards to the CIN20 (Williams,Xavier) PENALTY UCF Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Wade,Dylan) 5 yards from UCF45 to UCF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-5
79.0%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Kinnie,Cameron) 5 yards from UCF40 to UCF35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+20
79.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DJ Black for 20 yds DJ Black fumbled, recovered by CIN Jiquan SanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4980% → 79%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Noah JenningsSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
79.5%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
79.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff CaldwellSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bredell Richardson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:5621% → 22%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
79.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+12
79.0%
Cam Fancher run for 12 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
78.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
78.4%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
78.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Waden Charles for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+7
78.3%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 4
50
0
77.8%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 4
50
0
78.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CIN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4079% → 85%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
79.0%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-10
78.9%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short right to Goodie,Caleb thrown to CIN27 PENALTY CIN Holding (Buford,Deondre) 10 yards from CIN21 to CIN11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 16
OWN 11
0
78.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:12
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+15
78.5%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short right to Jennings,Noah thrown to CIN30 PENALTY UCF Pass Interference (Bell,DJ) 15 yards from CIN11 to CIN26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
79.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+18
79.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 18 yds to the UCF 47 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by CIN Joe Cotton for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
79.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 12 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
80.0%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
80.0%
Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
80.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 16 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
84.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3017% → 16%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
82.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
83.1%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+3
83.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 20
-5
83.7%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Jackson,Antione) 5 yards from UCF20 to UCF15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+2
84.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 yds , Manny Covey returns for 2 yds to the CIN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 5:1285% → 89%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Joe RoyerSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
85.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb GoodieSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
84.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
85.7%
Tawee Walker run for 10 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
85.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 14 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
85.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+9
85.6%
Tawee Walker run for 9 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+5
85.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Joe RoyerSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
85.9%
(05:36) No Huddle Pryor,Evan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UCF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:33 PENALTY CIN Holding (Gerhardt,Gavin) 10 yards from UCF04 to UCF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
85.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
85.4%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+32
89.0%
Stephen Rusnak 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10FG
18 plays · 49 yds · 3:4012% → 14%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marcus Burke for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
87.5%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
88.2%
(02:44) Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass incomplete deep left to Burke,Marcus thrown to CIN38 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (Wilson,Logan) 15 yards from UCF31 to UCF46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
87.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
50
-5
87.2%
PENALTY UCF False Start 5 yards from UCF50 to UCF45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
87.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 6 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
86.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DJ Black for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+9
87.6%
Cam Fancher run for 9 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+8
86.5%
Cam Fancher run for 8 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
86.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 4 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
86.1%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Jaden NixonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
86.5%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+45
85.6%
Noe Ruelas 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1688% → 89%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.9%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Pryor,Evan rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN31 (Lawrence,Malachi; Jackson Jr.,R.J.) PENALTY CIN Holding (Cotton,Joe) 10 yards from CIN25 to CIN15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
88.5%
Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the CIN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5213% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.9%
Cam Fancher run for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
86.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Marcus Burke for 21 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
85.5%
Myles Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
85.8%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-5
86.1%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Cushman,Preston) 5 yards from CIN39 to CIN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+10
86.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 10 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+4
86.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 4 yds to the CIN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1189% → 88%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
88.6%
Tawee Walker run for 8 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
89.1%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
88.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Elijah JonesSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
88.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 50 yds , Antione Jackson returns for 2 yds to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
21 plays · 40 yds · 9:0212% → 9%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
88.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
88.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DJ Black for 7 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
87.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.9%
Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass complete deep middle to Black,DJ caught at UCF46, for 27 yards to the CIN48 (Coleman,Simeon) PENALTY UCF Holding (Brooks,Jabari) 10 yards from UCF25 to UCF15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+17
88.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Domercant for 17 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
86.9%
Stacy Gage run for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.3%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Max DragSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
87.4%
Cam Fancher run for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
86.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
86.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 5 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
86.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.3%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
86.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
86.5%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
86.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Domercant for 4 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
85.4%
Stacy Gage run for 3 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-15
85.4%
Shotgun Fancher,Cam rush left for 0 yards to the CIN26 (Wilson,Logan) PENALTY UCF Chop Block (Kinnie,Cameron) 15 yards from CIN26 to CIN41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 22
OPP 41
0
87.1%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 22
OPP 41
-5
87.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Spell,Owen) 5 yards from CIN41 to CIN46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 27
OPP 46
0
87.8%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Chris DomercantSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 27
OPP 46
0
91.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FG
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:0793% → 96%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
93.3%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the CIN 13Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+11
93.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 11 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+67
93.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 67 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
94.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 6 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by CIN Brendan SorsbySimilar
Q4 13:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
96.1%
Stephen Rusnak 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:584% → 4%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
95.7%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
95.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
95.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Stacy Gage for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
96.0%
Stacy Gage run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
96.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Chris DomercantSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
96.3%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
96.4%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb GoodieSimilar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tawee Walker for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antione Jackson at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
23 plays · 90 yds · 6:543% → 7%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.7%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+9
96.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+6
96.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
96.8%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+8
97.0%
Cam Fancher run for 8 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
97.2%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Max DragSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-4
97.3%
Cam Fancher sacked by Isaiah Rogers for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+30
98.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Dylan Wade for 30 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
97.7%
Stacy Gage run for 4 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+9
97.3%
Stacy Gage run for 9 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
97.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Domercant for 9 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
97.4%
Stacy Gage run for 2 yds to the CIN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
97.5%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
97.9%
PENALTY UCF Delay Of Game 5 yards from CIN13 to CIN18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
97.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Dylan WadeSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 15
OPP 18
0
98.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Kylan FoxSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+15
98.0%
(02:18) Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass incomplete short left to Fox,Kylan thrown to CIN00 PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (Sanks,Jiquan) 15 yards from CIN18 to CIN03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.5%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.9%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Domercant pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:0497% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
96.5%
Evan Pryor run for 12 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
96.1%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
96.2%
PENALTY CIN False Start (Cotton,Joe) 5 yards from UCF32 to UCF37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 13
OPP 37
-3
95.9%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 16
OPP 40
+3
96.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
95.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20END OF GAME
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:453% → 3%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+12
97.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Thomas Wadsworth for 12 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
96.9%
Cam Fancher run for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+6
97.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Thomas Wadsworth for 6 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.8%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Hudson GibbsSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+22
96.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 22 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:12
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 9 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q4 2:07
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Domercant pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
-4.7
FG · Q2 4:13
Stephen Rusnak 32 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com