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BYU

BYU 33 at Arizona 27

ARIZ
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:27 · Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 34Home team on offense−4.5Garbage-time factor−1.1Pregame prior−3.7Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:14: Kedrick Reescano run for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK) — ARIZ win probability +13.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:08: Will Ferrin 24 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +7.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:19: Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +47.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: W.Ferrin 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-G.Grimes, Holder-S.Vander Haar. — ARIZ win probability +7.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:31BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33ARIZ 4th & 9 at BYU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:27ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:51BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 38, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:21ARIZ 4th & 1 at BYU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−2.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:32ARIZ 4th & 6 at BYU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:11BYU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.4%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:38BYU 4th & 8 at ARIZ 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:13ARIZ 4th & 4 at BYU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−10.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:14BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 10, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:17ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:14ARIZ 4th & 1 at BYU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−7.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:20BYU 4th & 7 at ARIZ 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−1.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:08BYU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 6, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%−1.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:55ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:55BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:15BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:32ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:40ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:14ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:19BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2155% → 54%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.4%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
45.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Carsen RyanSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
45.7%
Bear Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
45.8%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the ARIZ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5646% → 46%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for no gain to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
45.9%
Noah Fifita run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
45.8%
Isaac Lovison punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1954% → 56%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
45.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Carsen RyanSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
46.0%
LJ Martin run for 8 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
45.9%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
45.9%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
46.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+16
46.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Preston Rex for 16 yds to the ARIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
46.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
43.7%
LJ Martin run for 28 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:0344% → 44%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
44.8%
Kedrick Reescano run for 17 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
45.1%
Kedrick Reescano run for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
45.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for no gain to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
44.0%
Isaac Lovison punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 94 yds · 2:0956% → 61%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
44.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for no gain to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+10
43.9%
LJ Martin run for 10 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
43.5%
Bear Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+75
38.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 75 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3140% → 45%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
39.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Cam BarmoreSimilar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
38.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 8 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+10
39.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
39.4%
(02:05) PENALTY BYU Offside (Lutui,Logan) 5 yards from BYU42 to BYU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+5
39.2%
Quincy Craig run for 5 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
39.3%
Quincy Craig run for 15 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
45.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0958% → 58%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.1%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
41.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.7%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.3%
Preston Rex run for 1 yd to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
41.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Preston RexSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+6
42.2%
Sam Vander Haar run for 6 yds to the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:1044% → 47%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
44.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
44.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
44.9%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Chris thrown to BYU33 broken up by Satuala,Faletau PENALTY BYU Roughing The Passer (Tanuvasa,Keanu) 15 yards from BYU33 to BYU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "".Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
44.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 9 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
44.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
44.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+3
43.0%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.5%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Sam OlsonSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
46.9%
Michael Salgado-Medina 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:4755% → 57%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.5%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
44.9%
LJ Martin run for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
43.1%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
42.9%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
43.1%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 1
50
+3
43.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
42.7%
LJ Martin run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+12
42.4%
LJ Martin run for 12 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
42.1%
Preston Rex run for no gain to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
42.1%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
41.5%
Bear Bachmeier run for no gain to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
42.8%
Will Ferrin 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 1:4945% → 60%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
45.2%
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
45.5%
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
44.5%
Quincy Craig run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
46.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 15 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
47.6%
Quincy Craig run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
47.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
47.4%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
59.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1544% → 46%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
55.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 14 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
54.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass intercepted Treydan Stukes return for no gain to the ARIZ 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:1457% → 56%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
56.4%
Noah Fifita run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
17 plays · 70 yds · 7:3856% → 61%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
57.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
57.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
59.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
60.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+19
59.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 19 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
62.1%
(12:01) Shotgun Fifita,Noah pass incomplete short right to Richardson,Gio thrown to BYU20 PENALTY ARIZ Chop Block (Craig,Quincy) 15 yards from BYU35 to BYU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 25
50
+10
59.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tre Spivey for 10 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.4%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
62.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
62.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 2 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
60.9%
(09:07) Shotgun Fifita,Noah rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU16 (Taumoepeau,John) PENALTY BYU Offside (Lutui,Logan) 5 yards from BYU16 to BYU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
64.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
64.2%
Quincy Craig run for 4 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+2
63.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 2 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 4
OPP 5
-3
61.3%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Isaiah Glasker return for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5041% → 37%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
59.3%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 5
-2
59.8%
(06:34) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass complete short left to Kingston,Parker caught at BYU11, for 11 yards to the BYU16 (Groves-Killebrew,Marquis) PENALTY BYU Holding (Leausa,Austin) 2 yards from BYU05 to BYU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+7
60.0%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
61.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
62.7%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the ARIZ 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3763% → 59%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
63.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
62.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
60.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tre SpiveySimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
58.6%
Isaac Lovison punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4740% → 42%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
60.5%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 8 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
59.0%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
61.1%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 15 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Parker KingstonSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
59.5%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
57.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 5 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
57.3%
Parker Kingston run for no gain to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
57.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass intercepted Dalton Johnson return for no gain to the ARIZ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:4663% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
62.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
62.9%
Javin Whatley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
66.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Javin Whatley for 9 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
68.4%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
67.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kris Hutson for 14 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.5%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Luke WysongSimilar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
71.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
70.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Luke Wysong for 7 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+36
84.6%
Kedrick Reescano run for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:5616% → 18%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.3%
Bear Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.5%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
86.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Bear Bachmeier for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
86.0%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Cody HagenSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
87.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tiger BachmeierSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
85.6%
Bear Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
87.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to LJ MartinSimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+12
88.4%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 12 yds to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
87.0%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+17
87.6%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Chase Roberts for 17 yds to the ARIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
87.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to LJ Martin for no gain to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
87.9%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to LJ MartinSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
89.6%
Bear Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
82.5%
Will Ferrin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0392% → 93%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
92.4%
Kedrick Reescano run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
92.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
93.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+26
92.5%
Isaac Lovison punt for 44 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 26 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 47 yds · 2:2714% → 61%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
85.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
86.6%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
85.5%
Bear Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
82.4%
Bear Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+13
85.9%
LJ Martin run for 13 yds to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
83.7%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Cody Hagen for 6 yds to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
83.8%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
85.1%
Bear Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 4 Bear Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by BYU Kyle Sfarcioc for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
83.8%
(00:45) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete short right to Roberts,Chase thrown to ARIZ00 PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (Dansby,Michael) 2 yards from ARIZ04 to ARIZ02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
83.9%
Bear Bachmeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 3Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.3%
Bear Bachmeier pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
86.4%
(00:27) Shotgun Bachmeier,Bear pass incomplete short middle to Kingston,Parker thrown to ARIZ00 PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (Dansby,Michael) 1 yard from ARIZ03 to ARIZ02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.0%
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.1%
N. Fifita takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0092% → 61%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
91.5%
K.Reescano rushed for 13 yards. Tackled by T.Beasley; T.Wall at BYU 12.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
67.5%
K.Reescano rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by F.Satuala at BYU 9.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
67.5%
K.Reescano rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARIZ-C.Maae, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+3
67.1%
N.Fifita rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by B.Schoonover at BYU 12.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+7
64.9%
N.Fifita pass complete. Catch made by Q.Craig for 7 yards. Tackled by S.Esera; A.Kaufusi at BYU 5.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
61.4%
M.Salgado-Medina 23 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-A.Salerno, Holder-I.Wagner.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 18%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.9%
B.Bachmeier steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Roberts.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
70.7%
B.Bachmeier rushed for -1 yards. Tackled by L.Palu at ARIZ 26.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-1
74.9%
B.Bachmeier steps back to pass. Sacked at ARIZ 27 for -1 yards (R.Wilson).Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
0
82.1%
W.Ferrin 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-G.Grimes, Holder-S.Vander Haar.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
68.4%
B.Bachmeier rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by T.Brown; L.Palu at ARIZ 19.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
69.1%
L.Martin rushed for 6 yards. Tackled by T.Stukes; D.Lolesio at ARIZ 13.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
69.1%
L.Martin rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by R.Wilson; G.Smith at ARIZ 11.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
69.1%
B.Bachmeier rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by T.Stukes; M.Bailey at ARIZ 7.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
70.8%
B.Bachmeier rushed for 7 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.9%
K.Reescano rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by S.Esera; J.Taumoepeau at BYU 25.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
91.9%
N.Fifita pass complete. Catch made by Q.Craig for 4 yards. Tackled by F.Satuala at BYU 21.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+5
90.7%
N.Fifita pass complete. Catch made by K.Hutson for 5 yards. Tackled by M.Bamba at BYU 16.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
87.5%
Q.Craig rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by F.Satuala; S.Esera at BYU 14.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.9%
N.Fifita steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.Hutson.Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
91.9%
N.Fifita pass complete. Catch made by J.Whatley for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Bamba at BYU 11.Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+1
90.7%
N.Fifita rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by S.Esera at BYU 10.Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 10
0
87.9%
N.Fifita steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Whatley.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-87.9
TD · Q4 0:19
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-47.4
TD · Q4 11:14
Kedrick Reescano run for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com