Try the model
COLO

Colorado 21 at TCU 35

TCU
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:34 · Micah Welch run for 4 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+24.8Home team on offense−5.7Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:32: Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +10.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:38: Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +10.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:04: Josh Hoover pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +19.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:42: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +27.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:44: Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds for a TD Colorado Penalty, (Yards) declined (Nate McCashland KICK) — TCU win probability +23.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:19TCU 4th & 5 at COLO 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27TCU 4th & 13 at COLO 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:51TCU 4th & 26 at TCU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:34COLO 4th & 1 at TCU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:33COLO 4th & 18 at TCU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:47TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:29COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−4.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:04TCU 4th & 2 at COLO 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−2.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−16.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:39TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−8.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:35COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:35COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:56TCU 4th & 16 at TCU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−8.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:33COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:19TCU 4th & 6 at COLO 21, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:33COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:32COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:38TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:32TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:04TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:42COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:44TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:19TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:2786% → 85%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Nate Palmer for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
85.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
85.6%
Josh Hoover run for 4 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
85.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
85.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 5 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
85.4%
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the COLO 46Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Nate PalmerSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
85.2%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1515% → 16%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
84.9%
Micah Welch run for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
84.7%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-15
84.5%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for 15 yds to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:2585% → 83%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.8%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
84.8%
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
84.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 15 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
84.8%
Trent Battle run for 11 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
84.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 25 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
84.7%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the COLO 10Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-1
84.5%
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 11Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+10
84.1%
Josh Hoover run for 10 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.2%
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the COLO 1Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.1%
Jon Denman run for no gain to the COLO 1Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
83.8%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Kaiuway,Lafayette thrown to CU00 broken up by Myers,Shaun PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Pitchford,Joe) 15 yards from CU01 to CU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+3
83.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 3 yds to the COLO 13Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
83.1%
Nate McCashland 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:4517% → 25%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.9%
Dre'lon Miller run for no gain to the COLO 20Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
82.7%
Dre'lon Miller run for 8 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
82.4%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.1%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 32 Micah Welch fumbled, recovered by COLO Micah WelchSimilar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
81.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 10 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
80.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+28
80.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 28 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
79.7%
Dre'lon Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
79.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 6 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+8
79.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 8 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
79.0%
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
78.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 4 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
74.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 6 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:3776% → 74%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.0%
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
76.0%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Deery,Coltin) 5 yards from TCU28 to TCU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Nate PalmerSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-14
74.7%
Josh Hoover sacked by Keaten Wade for a loss of 14 yards to the TCU 9 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Taylor-Whitfield , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
74.0%
Ethan Craw punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:1327% → 45%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
73.0%
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
72.4%
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
71.9%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.7%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
70.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
70.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 9 yds Joseph Williams fumbled, recovered by COLOSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+4
70.2%
Micah Welch run for 4 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
67.4%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the TCU 21Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
65.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Zach AtkinsSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+10
66.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 10 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
65.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
55.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:3360% → 70%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
60.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
61.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 14 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the COLO 47Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
61.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 13 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
61.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
61.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Kevorian BarnesSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
59.9%
(04:09) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short left to Manjack IV,Joseph thrown to CU27 PENALTY CU Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 3 yards from CU32 to CU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
60.7%
Major Everhart run for 7 yds to the COLO 22Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
60.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 8 yds to the COLO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
59.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.0%
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3938% → 39%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.2%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 26Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Bud Clark return for no gain to the COLO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:1068% → 79%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
68.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 10 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
78.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 23 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10INT
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:1627% → 34%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
73.0%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Tristan Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 19Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
73.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+25
73.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 25 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
69.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 34 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
66.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
66.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+15
68.1%
(00:10) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short left to Miller,Omarion thrown to TCU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Glover,Vernon) 15 yards from TCU17 to TCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-26
66.2%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Namdi Obiazor return for 26 yds to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 5:2128% → 30%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.9%
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
71.4%
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 28Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
72.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 13 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
68.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 12 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
67.6%
(12:37) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass complete short right to Timmons, Jr.,Terrell caught at TCU33, for 16 yards to the TCU31 (Johnson,Jamel), out of bounds PENALTY CU Holding (Attia,Yahya) 10 yards from TCU47 to CU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+7
69.9%
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 13
50
0
68.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 13
50
+15
69.6%
(11:19) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Sincere thrown to TCU04 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Glover,Vernon) 15 yards from CU50 to TCU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
66.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 7 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+4
68.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
68.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Sincere BrownSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 13
OPP 38
-5
70.3%
PENALTY CU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TCU38 to TCU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
70.3%
Damon Greaves punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3972% → 69%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
71.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
72.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
70.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1033% → 32%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
67.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 21 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
64.3%
Dallan Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 42Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
65.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Dallan HaydenSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-5
66.5%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 37Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
68.1%
Damon Greaves punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:1869% → 87%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+27
69.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 27 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.7%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
72.4%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 41Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+11
70.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 11 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
73.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the COLO 25Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
72.9%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 21Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
71.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the COLO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
72.5%
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+3
72.0%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the COLO 16Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+6
70.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds Eric McAlister fumbled, recovered by TCU Carson BrunoSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+10
87.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
87.0%
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kaiuway,Lafayette) 15 yards from TCU35 to TCU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1620% → 48%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
50
-10
80.5%
(14:01) Shotgun Miller,Dre'lon rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU41 (Deal,Devean) PENALTY CU Holding (Hill,Xavier) 10 yards from TCU50 to CU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+7
83.5%
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the COLO 47Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+2
82.8%
Dre'lon Miller run for 2 yds to the COLO 49Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+17
82.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 17 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
79.0%
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
51.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:5864% → 60%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.0%
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Kevorian BarnesSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IVSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
60.1%
(11:02) Craw,Ethan punt 48 yards to the CU26 Gibson,Quentin return for loss of 3 yards to the CU23, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TCU26 to TCU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
59.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 59 yds , Quentin Gibson returns for no gain to the COLO 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5241% → 39%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
58.8%
Dre'lon Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 16Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-3
59.5%
Dallan Hayden run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 13Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+10
60.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 10 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
61.0%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 33Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
61.0%
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:3167% → 58%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
66.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
65.1%
Josh Hoover sacked by London Merritt for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+13
60.8%
Josh Hoover run for 13 yds to the COLO 48Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-15
63.2%
(07:20) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass complete short right to Rogers,DJ caught at CU45, for 43 yards to the CU05 (Stoutmire,Carter) PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (McAlister,Eric) 15 yards from CU48 to TCU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+6
57.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 42 yds , Kam Mikell returns for 6 yds to the COLO 27 Kam Mikell fumbled, recovered by TCU Chase CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 1:0468% → 91%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
68.2%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
68.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 5 yds to the COLO 18Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
91.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds for a TD Colorado Penalty, (Yards) declined (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:5614% → 12%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
86.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 5 yds to the COLO 24Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+1
85.4%
Dre'lon Miller run for 1 yd to the COLO 25Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-5
86.7%
(04:19) PENALTY CU False Start (Brown,Sincere) 5 yards from CU25 to CU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+12
88.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 12 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.8%
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
86.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Dallan HaydenSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
88.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Sincere BrownSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
88.4%
Damon Greaves punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:0295% → 100%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
94.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 19 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.7%
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 36Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+11
97.8%
Josh Hoover run for 11 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.6%
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the COLO 23Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
97.8%
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the COLO 20Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-1
98.2%
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 21Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+21
99.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 21 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 9 yds to the TCU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q4 5:44
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds for a TD Colorado Penalty, (Yards) declined (Nate McCashland KICK)
+23
TD · Q4 14:04
Josh Hoover pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com