COLO
Colorado 21 at TCU 35
TCU2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
TCU · Drive 1DOWNS · 10 plays · 29 yds
Q1 15:00
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.5%
0.0
Q1 14:46
Josh Hoover pass complete to Nate Palmer for 1 yd to the TCU 26
86.8%
+1.3
Q1 14:30
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 8 yds to the TCU 34
86.6%
-0.2
Q1 14:12
Josh Hoover run for 4 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down
86.6%
0.0
Q1 13:47
Josh Hoover pass complete to Ed Small for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down
86.9%
+0.3
Q1 13:19
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 5 yds to the COLO 46
87.2%
+0.2
Q1 12:42
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the COLO 46
87.6%
+0.4
Q1 12:24
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Nate Palmer
87.5%
-0.1
Q1 12:24
Timeout Colorado, clock 12:24
86.9%
-0.5
Q1 12:19
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
86.9%
0.0
COLO · Drive 2INT · 3 plays · 17 yds
Q1 12:13
Micah Welch run for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down
83.4%
-3.6
Q1 11:35
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the TCU 37
83.1%
-0.2
Q1 10:58
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Jamel Johnson return for 15 yds to the TCU 36
83.1%
0.0
TCU · Drive 3MISSED FG · 13 plays · 51 yds
Q1 10:52
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the TCU 38
86.5%
+3.3
Q1 10:46
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 37
86.6%
+0.2
Q1 10:09
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 15 yds to the COLO 48 for a 1ST down
86.5%
-0.2
Q1 9:53
Trent Battle run for 11 yds to the COLO 37 for a 1ST down
87.2%
+0.7
Q1 9:11
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 25 yds to the COLO 12 for a 1ST down
87.4%
+0.2
Q1 8:53
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the COLO 10
87.2%
-0.2
Q1 8:13
Trent Battle run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 11
87.3%
0.0
Q1 7:30
Josh Hoover run for 10 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST down
87.1%
-0.1
Q1 7:12
Nate Palmer run for no gain to the COLO 1
87.1%
-0.1
Q1 6:36
Jon Denman run for no gain to the COLO 1
87.1%
0.0
Q1 6:12
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Kaiuway,Lafayette thrown to CU00 broken up by Myers,Shaun PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Pitchford,Joe) 15 yards from CU01 to CU16. NO PLAY.
86.2%
-0.9
Q1 6:02
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 3 yds to the COLO 13
86.3%
+0.2
Q1 5:27
Nate McCashland 30 yd FG MISSED
86.1%
-0.3
COLO · Drive 4TD · 13 plays · 80 yds
Q1 5:18
Dre'lon Miller run for no gain to the COLO 20
83.5%
-2.6
Q1 4:39
Dre'lon Miller run for 8 yds to the COLO 28
83.5%
0.0
Q1 4:01
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST down
83.5%
0.0
Q1 3:22
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 32 Micah Welch fumbled, recovered by COLO Micah Welch
83.4%
-0.1
Q1 2:41
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 10 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST down
83.4%
0.0
Q1 2:09
Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the COLO 44
82.4%
-1.0
Q1 1:21
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 28 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST down
81.6%
-0.8
Q1 0:44
Dre'lon Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 27
80.9%
-0.7
Q1 0:00
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Dre'lon Miller for 6 yds to the TCU 21
80.9%
-0.1
Q2 14:49
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Zach Atkins for 8 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST down
80.9%
0.0
Q2 14:27
Dre'lon Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 10
80.9%
0.0
Q2 13:54
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 4 yds to the TCU 6
80.9%
0.0
Q2 13:33
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 6 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
68.3%
-12.6
TCU · Drive 5PUNT · 6 plays · -16 yds
Q2 13:33
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
69.8%
+1.5
Q2 13:28
Nate Palmer run for 3 yds to the TCU 28
70.6%
+0.8
Q2 13:08
PENALTY TCU False Start (Deery,Coltin) 5 yards from TCU28 to TCU23. NO PLAY.
70.6%
0.0
Q2 12:39
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Nate Palmer
70.6%
0.0
Q2 12:25
Josh Hoover sacked by Keaten Wade for a loss of 14 yards to the TCU 9 Josh Hoover fumbled, recovered by TCU Ben Taylor-Whitfield , return for 0 yards
70.6%
0.0
Q2 11:51
Ethan Craw punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 45
70.7%
0.0
COLO · Drive 6TD · 14 plays · 45 yds
Q2 11:45
Micah Welch run for 6 yds to the TCU 39
68.4%
-2.3
Q2 11:06
Micah Welch run for 3 yds to the TCU 36
68.0%
-0.4
Q2 10:25
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down
67.0%
-1.0
Q2 9:38
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the TCU 35
67.0%
0.0
Q2 8:58
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete
67.0%
0.0
Q2 8:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 9 yds Joseph Williams fumbled, recovered by COLO
67.0%
0.0
Q2 8:40
Timeout TCU, clock 08:40
66.7%
-0.2
Q2 8:34
Micah Welch run for 4 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST down
66.7%
0.0
Q2 8:05
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the TCU 21
63.6%
-3.1
Q2 7:27
Timeout Colorado, clock 07:27
62.3%
-1.3
Q2 7:27
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Zach Atkins
62.3%
0.0
Q2 7:18
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 10 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down
62.3%
0.0
Q2 7:09
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the TCU 10
62.3%
0.0
Q2 6:32
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
31.0%
-31.3
TCU · Drive 7TD · 12 plays · 76 yds
Q2 6:27
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds , Major Everhart return for 24 yds to the TCU 24
32.2%
+1.1
Q2 6:11
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down
53.0%
+20.8
Q2 5:56
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 14 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST down
52.4%
-0.5
Q2 5:33
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the COLO 47
53.9%
+1.5
Q2 5:06
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 13 yds to the COLO 34 for a 1ST down
53.9%
0.0
Q2 4:39
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds to the COLO 32
55.0%
+1.1
Q2 4:11
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Kevorian Barnes
54.5%
-0.5
Q2 4:06
(04:09) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short left to Manjack IV,Joseph thrown to CU27 PENALTY CU Pass Interference (Hodge,Preston) 3 yards from CU32 to CU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
54.5%
0.0
Q2 3:55
Major Everhart run for 7 yds to the COLO 22
54.5%
0.0
Q2 3:27
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 8 yds to the COLO 14 for a 1ST down
54.5%
0.0
Q2 2:54
Kevorian Barnes run for 13 yds to the COLO 1 for a 1ST down
54.5%
0.0
Q2 2:38
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
68.3%
+13.9
COLO · Drive 8INT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q2 2:38
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
65.6%
-2.7
Q2 2:32
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 26
59.9%
-5.7
Q2 2:00
Timeout TCU, clock 02:00
59.8%
-0.1
Q2 1:53
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Bud Clark return for no gain to the COLO 33
59.8%
0.0
TCU · Drive 9TD · 2 plays · 33 yds
Q2 1:42
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordan Dwyer for 10 yds to the COLO 23 for a 1ST down
67.0%
+7.2
Q2 1:32
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 23 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
83.8%
+16.8
COLO · Drive 10INT · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:26
Easton Black kickoff for 65 yds , Quentin Gibson return for 23 yds to the COLO 23
82.5%
-1.3
Q2 1:16
Kaidon Salter sacked by Tristan Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 19
77.5%
-5.0
Q2 0:40
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the COLO 24
77.5%
-0.1
Q2 0:40
Timeout TCU, clock 00:40
77.5%
0.0
Q2 0:33
Dallan Hayden run for 25 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST down
77.5%
0.0
Q2 0:21
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 34 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST down
75.1%
-2.4
Q2 0:19
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete
74.4%
-0.6
Q2 0:12
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph Williams
73.8%
-0.6
Q2 0:07
(00:10) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short left to Miller,Omarion thrown to TCU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Glover,Vernon) 15 yards from TCU17 to TCU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
73.8%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Namdi Obiazor return for 26 yds to the TCU 27
73.8%
0.0
COLO · Drive 11PUNT · 14 plays · 32 yds
Q3 15:00
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.7%
+8.9
Q3 14:54
Micah Welch run for 2 yds to the COLO 27
78.2%
-4.5
Q3 14:23
Micah Welch run for 1 yd to the COLO 28
78.2%
0.0
Q3 13:39
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 13 yds to the COLO 41 for a 1ST down
77.9%
-0.3
Q3 13:04
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 12 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down
76.8%
-1.1
Q3 12:28
(12:37) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass complete short right to Timmons, Jr.,Terrell caught at TCU33, for 16 yards to the TCU31 (Johnson,Jamel), out of bounds PENALTY CU Holding (Attia,Yahya) 10 yards from TCU47 to CU43. NO PLAY.
76.0%
-0.8
Q3 12:01
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
76.8%
+0.8
Q3 11:20
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Joseph Williams
75.3%
-1.4
Q3 11:10
(11:19) Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Sincere thrown to TCU04 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Glover,Vernon) 15 yards from CU50 to TCU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
75.3%
0.0
Q3 10:59
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quentin Gibson for 7 yds to the TCU 42
75.0%
-0.3
Q3 10:21
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the TCU 38
75.0%
0.0
Q3 9:41
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Sincere Brown
75.0%
0.0
Q3 9:41
PENALTY CU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TCU38 to TCU43. NO PLAY.
75.6%
+0.6
Q3 9:33
Damon Greaves punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 14
75.6%
0.0
TCU · Drive 12PUNT · 7 plays · 16 yds
Q3 9:26
Kevorian Barnes run for 8 yds to the TCU 22
81.7%
+6.1
Q3 9:00
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 23
81.7%
0.0
Q3 8:34
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down
81.6%
-0.1
Q3 7:59
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 5 yds to the TCU 30
81.6%
0.0
Q3 7:33
Kevorian Barnes run for no gain to the TCU 30
81.6%
0.0
Q3 6:54
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
81.6%
0.0
Q3 6:47
Ethan Craw punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the COLO 22
81.4%
-0.2
COLO · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 15 yds
Q3 6:39
Dallan Hayden run for 21 yds to the COLO 43 for a 1ST down
76.9%
-4.5
Q3 5:57
Dallan Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 42
75.9%
-1.0
Q3 5:24
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Dallan Hayden
76.0%
+0.1
Q3 5:16
Kaidon Salter sacked by Namdi Obiazor for a loss of 5 yards to the COLO 37
75.6%
-0.3
Q3 4:29
Damon Greaves punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 33
74.7%
-1.0
TCU · Drive 14TD · 14 plays · 67 yds
Q3 4:22
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
79.6%
+5.0
Q3 4:10
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 27 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST down
79.6%
0.0
Q3 3:55
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlister
81.2%
+1.6
Q3 3:46
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 41
81.2%
0.0
Q3 3:10
Josh Hoover pass complete to Chase Curtis for 11 yds to the COLO 30 for a 1ST down
81.0%
-0.2
Q3 2:44
Kevorian Barnes run for 5 yds to the COLO 25
81.2%
+0.2
Q3 2:07
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 21
81.2%
0.0
Q3 1:33
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the COLO 18 for a 1ST down
81.0%
-0.2
Q3 0:58
Kevorian Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 19
81.2%
+0.2
Q3 0:00
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the COLO 16
81.2%
0.0
Q4 14:25
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 6 yds Eric McAlister fumbled, recovered by TCU Carson Bruno
80.9%
-0.3
Q4 14:11
Timeout TCU, clock 14:11
80.9%
0.0
Q4 14:04
Josh Hoover pass complete to Lafayette Kaiuway for 10 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
92.8%
+11.9
Q4 14:04
PENALTY TCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kaiuway,Lafayette) 15 yards from TCU35 to TCU20. NO PLAY.
79.8%
-13.1
COLO · Drive 15TD · 7 plays · 50 yds
Q4 14:04
Easton Black kickoff for 56 yds
92.8%
+13.0
Q4 13:58
(14:01) Shotgun Miller,Dre'lon rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TCU41 (Deal,Devean) PENALTY CU Holding (Hill,Xavier) 10 yards from TCU50 to CU40. NO PLAY.
90.9%
-1.8
Q4 13:36
Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the COLO 47
91.2%
+0.3
Q4 13:04
Dre'lon Miller run for 2 yds to the COLO 49
91.9%
+0.6
Q4 12:29
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Sincere Brown for 17 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down
91.8%
-0.1
Q4 12:10
Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the TCU 31
91.5%
-0.3
Q4 11:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
71.8%
-19.7
TCU · Drive 16PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q4 11:42
Buck Buchanan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.0%
+2.3
Q4 11:37
Kevorian Barnes run for 1 yd to the TCU 26
79.8%
+5.8
Q4 11:10
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Kevorian Barnes
79.8%
0.0
Q4 11:03
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV
79.8%
0.0
Q4 10:54
(11:02) Craw,Ethan punt 48 yards to the CU26 Gibson,Quentin return for loss of 3 yards to the CU23, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TCU26 to TCU21. NO PLAY.
79.6%
-0.2
Q4 10:39
Ethan Craw punt for 59 yds , Quentin Gibson returns for no gain to the COLO 17
79.6%
0.0
COLO · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q4 10:27
Dre'lon Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 16
74.0%
-5.6
Q4 9:56
Dallan Hayden run for a loss of 3 yards to the COLO 13
73.7%
-0.3
Q4 9:14
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 10 yds to the COLO 23
72.7%
-1.0
Q4 8:35
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 33
72.7%
0.0
Q4 8:35
Damon Greaves punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ed Small at the TCU 43
72.7%
0.0
TCU · Drive 18PUNT · 6 plays · -6 yds
Q4 8:27
Josh Hoover pass incomplete
79.9%
+7.3
Q4 8:20
Josh Hoover sacked by London Merritt for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 39
79.7%
-0.2
Q4 7:41
Josh Hoover run for 13 yds to the COLO 48
77.9%
-1.8
Q4 7:23
Timeout TCU, clock 07:23
78.4%
+0.5
Q4 7:11
(07:20) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass complete short right to Rogers,DJ caught at CU45, for 43 yards to the CU05 (Stoutmire,Carter) PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (McAlister,Eric) 15 yards from CU48 to TCU37. NO PLAY.
78.4%
0.0
Q4 6:56
Ethan Craw punt for 42 yds , Kam Mikell returns for 6 yds to the COLO 27 Kam Mikell fumbled, recovered by TCU Chase Curtis
77.3%
-1.1
TCU · Drive 19TD · 3 plays · 27 yds
Q4 6:48
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 23
79.0%
+1.8
Q4 6:18
Josh Hoover pass complete to Kevorian Barnes for 5 yds to the COLO 18
78.5%
-0.6
Q4 5:44
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 18 yds for a TD Colorado Penalty, (Yards) declined (Nate McCashland KICK)
93.4%
+14.9
COLO · Drive 20PUNT · 9 plays · 13 yds
Q4 5:37
Nate McCashland kickoff for 65 yds , Quentin Gibson return for 19 yds to the COLO 19
93.3%
-0.1
Q4 5:29
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 5 yds to the COLO 24
93.4%
+0.2
Q4 5:04
Dre'lon Miller run for 1 yd to the COLO 25
93.4%
-0.1
Q4 4:19
(04:19) PENALTY CU False Start (Brown,Sincere) 5 yards from CU25 to CU20. NO PLAY.
93.5%
+0.1
Q4 3:55
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 12 yds to the COLO 32 for a 1ST down
93.5%
0.0
Q4 3:26
Dallan Hayden run for no gain to the COLO 32
94.1%
+0.6
Q4 2:46
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Dallan Hayden
94.3%
+0.2
Q4 2:40
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Sincere Brown
94.3%
0.0
Q4 2:33
Damon Greaves punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 41
94.3%
0.0
TCU · Drive 21TD · 12 plays · 59 yds
Q4 2:21
Josh Hoover pass complete to Major Everhart for 19 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST down
94.7%
+0.4
Q4 2:17
Timeout Colorado, clock 02:17
94.8%
+0.1
Q4 2:12
Timeout Colorado, clock 02:12
94.8%
0.0
Q4 2:12
Kevorian Barnes run for 4 yds to the COLO 36
94.8%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout TCU, clock 02:00
94.8%
0.0
Q4 1:59
Josh Hoover run for 11 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST down
95.0%
+0.2
Q4 1:55
Kevorian Barnes run for 2 yds to the COLO 23
95.0%
0.0
Q4 1:55
Timeout Colorado, clock 01:55
95.0%
0.0
Q4 1:47
Kevorian Barnes run for 3 yds to the COLO 20
95.0%
0.0
Q4 1:03
Josh Hoover run for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 21
95.6%
+0.6
Q4 0:26
Timeout TCU, clock 00:26
94.9%
-0.7
Q4 0:19
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 21 yds for a TD (Nate McCashland KICK)
98.3%
+3.4
COLO · Drive 22END OF GAME · 2 plays · 9 yds
Q4 0:09
Nate McCashland kickoff for 43 yds , Kylan Salter return for 26 yds to the COLO 48
98.3%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 9 yds to the TCU 43
96.5%
-1.7
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:32
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-31.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:11
Josh Hoover pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 15 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down
+20.8
TD · Q4 11:42
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 31 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-19.7