2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:01 · Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:27: Amare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — HOU win probability +5.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:27: Timeout Texas Tech, clock 01:27 — HOU win probability +1.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:53: Stone Harrington 26 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +1.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:44: Upton Bellenfant 29 Yd Field Goal — TTU win probability +0.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:34: J'Koby Williams 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick) — TTU win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 12:56TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt77.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:31TTU 4th & 4 at HOU 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snapGo for it76.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call76.4%−<0.190% to makePunt75.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:38TTU 4th & 9 at HOU 15, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snapGo for it76.0%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call76.1%83% to makePunt75.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:57HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 21, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q1 4:34TTU 4th & 4 at HOU 5, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it75.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call75.6%−0.192% to makePunt73.5%−2.2average punt
- Q1 2:16HOU 4th & 5 at TTU 7, down 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call22.7%91% to makePunt20.1%−2.5average punt
- Q2 8:01HOU 4th & 22 at TTU 49, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it15.4%−1.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%average punt
- Q2 6:05HOU 4th & 7 at TTU 45, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.0%37% to convertField goal15.3%−0.725% to makePunt15.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:45HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 30, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 6:53TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.2%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q2 1:53TTU 4th & 8 at HOU 8, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it82.0%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call82.6%90% to makePunt77.6%−5.1average punt
- Q3 13:26HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q3 7:44TTU 4th & 5 at HOU 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.3%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call86.5%87% to makePunt80.6%−5.9average punt
- Q3 5:26HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q3 4:16TTU 4th & 6 at HOU 35, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call90.0%−0.545% to makePunt89.3%−1.2average punt
- Q3 1:55TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 30, up 17Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snapGo for it92.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:56HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 38, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−0.9average punt
- Q4 10:56HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 9:28HOU 4th & 2 at TTU 28, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%57% to convertField goal1.8%−0.360% to makePunt0.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 7:39HOU 4th & 8 at TTU 23, down 24Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.133% to convertField goal1.4%70% to makePunt0.7%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TTU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 1:27HOU Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick14.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call14.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:34TTU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two98.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1FG15 plays · 68 yds · 4:1680% → 78%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
20.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 9 yds to the TTU 33Similar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
20.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 5 yds to the TTU 43Similar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
50
+13
21.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 13 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
21.9%
Texas Tech Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Skyler Gill-Howard) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.0%
Conner Weigman run for 7 yds to the HOU 16 Dean Connors fumbled, recovered by TTU Ben RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3FG4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4478% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3022% → 22%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
21.9%
(09:33) Shotgun Weigman,Conner pass complete short middle to Koziol,Tanner caught at HOU20, for 8 yards to the HOU22 (Roberts,Ben; Rodriguez,Jacob) PENALTY HOU Face Mask offsetting TTU Equipment Violation offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
22.3%
(08:05) Shotgun Weigman,Conner pass incomplete short middle to Thomas,Amare thrown to HOU33 broken up by Gill-Howard,Skyler PENALTY TTU Offside (Bailey,David) 5 yards from HOU14 to HOU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
22.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the HOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5FG10 plays · 43 yds · 3:2378% → 78%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
22.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for no gain to the HOU 48Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-10
22.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morton,Behren rush left for 7 yards gain to the HOU41 (McCutchin Sr.,Latrell) PENALTY TTU Holding (Sampson,Howard) 10 yards from HOU48 to TTU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+33
22.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 33 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
21.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 4 yds to the HOU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD4 plays · 75 yds · 7:0179% → 80%
Q1 0:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
19.9%
Cameron Dickey 69 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG8 plays · 69 yds · 2:1422% → 22%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
21.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amare Thomas for 6 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
21.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Koby Young for 43 yds to the TTU 12 for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Skyler Gill-Howard) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0616% → 16%
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
15.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 19 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
16.5%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Weigman,Conner pass incomplete deep right to Thomas,Amare thrown to TTU15 PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Pollock,Brice) 15 yards from HOU48 to TTU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-10
15.4%
Conner Weigman sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 10 yards to the TTU 49 Conner Weigman fumbled, recovered by HOU Alvin Ebosele , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
15.7%
Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 3 yds · 9:5114% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5017% → 17%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-1
16.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Stacy Sneed for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 26Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
16.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-26
16.8%
Conner Weigman pass intercepted Jacob Rodriguez return for 26 yds to the HOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1911% → 17%
TTUDrive 12TD5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4082% → 83%
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
17.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 8 yds to the HOU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5783% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14FG13 plays · 47 yds · 4:0784% → 85%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
16.2%
Behren Morton sacked by Marc Stampley II for a loss of 8 yards to the TTU 37Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+13
16.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
15.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 30 yds to the HOU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
15.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the HOU 6Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
15.5%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Sampson,Howard) 5 yards from HOU01 to HOU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
14.5%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Carter Jr.,Terrance) 5 yards from HOU03 to HOU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2816% → 17%
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.3%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the HOU30 fumbled by Chriss,Zeon at HOU30 forced by Gill-Howard,Skyler recovered by TTU Gill-Howard,Skyler at HOU30 Gill-Howard,Skyler return 30 yards to the HOU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:45 PENALTY TTU Face Mask (Pollock,Brice) 15 yards from HOU25 to HOU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
17.3%
Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Coy Eakin at the TTU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16FG13 plays · 73 yds · 5:3585% → 89%
Q3 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+8
15.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 8 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
14.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the TTU 34Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
12.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 5 yds to the HOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
13.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 9 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+5
11.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 5 yds to the HOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1312% → 11%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 7 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
12.3%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Sneed,Stacy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the HOU35 (Cofield,Jayden) PENALTY HOU Illegal Formation 5 yards from HOU32 to HOU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
11.7%
Zeon Chriss sacked by David Bailey for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 20Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+30
11.2%
Liam Dougherty punt for 42 yds , Coy Eakin returns for 30 yds to the HOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18MISSED FG4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0291% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5511% → 12%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.3%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted Brenden Jordan return for no gain to the TTU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1691% → 92%
Q3 1:55
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
7.9%
Jack Burgess punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4910% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1794% → 98%
Q4 14:26
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+23
6.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 23 yds to the HOU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
5.3%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Llewellyn,Jason) 5 yards from HOU02 to HOU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
5.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 6 yds to the HOU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:302% → 2%
TTUDrive 25FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
1.7%
Cameron Dickey run for 8 yds to the TTU 36 Cameron Dickey fumbled, recovered by HOU Sione FotuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 3:032% → 1%
Q4 10:06
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+9
2.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Dean Connors for 9 yds to the TTU 28Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
2.3%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Chriss,Zeon pass incomplete short left to Young,Koby thrown to TTU16 PENALTY HOU Face Mask (Ebosele,Alvin) 15 yards from TTU25 to TTU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 25
OPP 40
-5
2.0%
PENALTY HOU False Start (Merryman,Dalton) 5 yards from TTU40 to TTU45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27END OF GAME14 plays · 73 yds · 7:3399% → 100%
Q4 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+13
0.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 13 yds to the HOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Amare Thomas 64 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Zeon Chriss Pass to Stephon Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
+5.5
TD · Q4 11:34
J'Koby Williams 1 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)
-3.6
TD · Q2 1:27
Timeout Texas Tech, clock 01:27
+1.4