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ISU

Iowa State 30 at Cincinnati 38

CIN
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2CIN 56.2%Stephen Rusnak 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 7:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:54 · Stephen Rusnak 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Pregame prior+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:23: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 12 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CIN win probability +9.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:40: Evan Pryor run for 18 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — CIN win probability +11.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Rocco Becht 4 Yd Run (Major Cantrell Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion) — ISU win probability +11.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:56: Chase Sowell 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion) — ISU win probability +10.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:56: Timeout Cincinnati, clock 01:56 — CIN win probability +12.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
  1. Q1 9:59ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54CIN 4th & 5 at ISU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:01ISU 4th & 6 at CIN 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:28ISU 4th & 8 at CIN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−8.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:08CIN 4th & 1 at ISU 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−8.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:28ISU 4th & 7 at CIN 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:28ISU 4th & 7 at CIN 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:10CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 39, up 9
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:36ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 3, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−3.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:36ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 3, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−3.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52CIN 4th & 3 at ISU 38, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    80.7%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:00ISU 4th & 22 at ISU 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:00ISU 4th & 22 at ISU 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:34CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 38, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:47ISU 4th & 7 at CIN 41, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−1.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:40ISU 4th & 1 at CIN 16, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−2.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−10.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:28ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 42, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:04ISU 4th & 11 at CIN 28, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:56ISU 4th & 3 at CIN 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:11CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:11CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 41, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:25CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55ISU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:40CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:08CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00ISU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:06ISU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:57CIN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:56ISU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2352% → 54%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
52.2%
Tawee Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 19Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
52.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 8 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
52.3%
PENALTY ISU Offside (Gilbert,Jace J.) 5 yards from CIN27 to CIN32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
52.4%
Tawee Walker run for 17 yds to the CIN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb GoodieSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
52.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jeff Caldwell for 21 yds to the ISU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
53.9%
Evan Pryor run for 30 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2147% → 45%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.5%
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
53.5%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.9%
Alex Manske run for 4 yds to the ISU 39Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
53.9%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
54.1%
PENALTY ISU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ISU42 to ISU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
54.6%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
54.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:5855% → 56%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff CaldwellSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jeff CaldwellSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+36
54.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 36 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
55.9%
Evan Pryor run for 21 yds to the ISU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
56.1%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
56.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Noah JenningsSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
56.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
56.2%
Stephen Rusnak 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3944% → 43%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
55.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Dominic Overby for 5 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+22
55.9%
Abu Sama III run for 7 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Personal Foul (Logan Wilson) to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
55.6%
Abu Sama III run for 17 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
55.4%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass complete short middle to Overby,Dominic caught at CIN22, for 15 yards to the CIN19 (McDoom,Matthew) PENALTY ISU Holding (Neal,James) 10 yards from CIN34 to CIN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+3
56.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 3 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+11
56.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Dominic Overby for 11 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
56.4%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
57.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3059% → 69%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
59.0%
Tawee Walker run for 12 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
59.9%
Tawee Walker run for 14 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
60.2%
Tawee Walker run for 7 yds to the ISU 37Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
60.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Cyrus AllenSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
60.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds to the ISU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
61.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the ISU 12Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
61.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Noah JenningsSimilar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
69.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 12 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:1932% → 42%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
68.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 41 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
66.5%
Abu Sama III run for 20 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
57.8%
Rocco Becht run for 14 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 0:5861% → 72%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
60.7%
Evan Pryor run for 11 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Caleb GoodieSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+26
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 26 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
72.1%
Evan Pryor run for 18 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8MISSED FG
17 plays · 53 yds · 7:0630% → 27%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
70.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 11 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
69.9%
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
69.0%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
69.9%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the CIN 42Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
70.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Dominic Overby for 6 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
70.9%
Iowa State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the CIN 43Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 17
OPP 43
+4
72.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+5
72.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-5
72.2%
Cincinnati Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Simeon Coleman) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
71.3%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
71.1%
Alex Manske run for 1 yd to the CIN 14Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-3
72.2%
Rocco Becht sacked by Jalen Hunt for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
73.5%
Chase Smith 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:5884% → 91%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
83.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 19Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
83.9%
Tawee Walker run for 12 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
84.5%
Tawee Walker run for 7 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
85.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 4 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
83.8%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
83.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 10 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Evan PryorSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
84.7%
Tawee Walker run for 12 yds to the ISU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
84.8%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the ISU 28Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
85.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
85.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Noah Jennings for 6 yds to the ISU 20Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
90.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 20 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10END OF HALF
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:4413% → 25%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
87.2%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+7
86.2%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
86.2%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass complete short left to Eskildsen,Brett caught at CIN24, for 16 yards to the CIN24 (Gola-Callard,Tre) PENALTY ISU Illegal Shift (Hansen,Carson) 5 yards from CIN40 to CIN45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+9
87.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 9 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+17
86.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 17 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
86.2%
(00:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass intercepted by McDoom,Matthew at CIN00 McDoom,Matthew return 41 yards to the CIN41 (Hansen,Carson) PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (McDoom,Matthew) 15 yards from CIN19 to CIN04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.6%
Rocco Becht 4 Yd Run (Major Cantrell Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:5021% → 27%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Abu Sama IIISimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.0%
Abu Sama III run for 16 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
78.0%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 42Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
78.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 1
50
+2
77.8%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
78.9%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+17
79.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 17 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
78.2%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the CIN 27Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
79.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+4
80.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 4 yds to the CIN 23Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+10
82.5%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Becht,Rocco pass incomplete short middle to Sowell,Chase thrown to CIN10 PENALTY CIN Holding (Gola-Callard,Tre) 10 yards from CIN23 to CIN13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
80.1%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Sama,Abu rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIN06 (Weedon,Montay; Gola-Callard,Tre) PENALTY ISU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CIN13 to CIN18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+5
80.9%
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 2 yds to the CIN 11Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
73.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 11 yds for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0178% → 78%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
78.0%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+8
78.1%
Evan Pryor run for 8 yds to the ISU 39Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
77.9%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the ISU 39 Tawee Walker fumbled, recovered by ISU Jace J. GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1525% → 22%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
75.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 10 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.5%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
74.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
75.7%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the CIN 33 Abu Sama III fumbled, recovered by ISU Abu Sama IIISimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
74.1%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
76.2%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
78.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
78.0%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Xavier TownsendSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1079% → 79%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
79.3%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
79.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 5 yds to the CIN 39Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
79.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Joe RoyerSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
79.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3120% → 18%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
79.8%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ISU 2Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
80.5%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 3Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
81.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
82.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
82.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3383% → 82%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
83.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 1 yd to the ISU 44Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
83.1%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the ISU 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
82.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
81.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Noah JenningsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:4520% → 17%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.9%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Tyler MooreSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
80.7%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-15
82.2%
PENALTY ISU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from ISU41 to ISU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 32Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 22
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Manny Covey at the CIN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:1883% → 83%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
83.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CIN 23Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 24
OWN 23
+13
82.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 13 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-5
83.0%
(13:20) No Huddle Sorsby,Brendan pass complete short middle to Goodie,Caleb caught at ISU49, for 26 yards to the ISU38 (Bell,Tre) PENALTY CIN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Gerhardt,Gavin) 5 yards from CIN36 to CIN31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
82.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-5
81.5%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass complete deep right to Jennings,Noah caught at ISU45, for 52 yards to the ISU17 (James,Ta'Shawn) PENALTY CIN Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Tyo,Taran) 5 yards from CIN31 to CIN26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+12
82.9%
Evan Pryor run for 12 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
82.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the ISU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4717% → 16%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
83.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, Personal Foul (Logan Wilson) to the CIN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 4 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-1
81.7%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 41Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
82.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+16
84.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 16 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
79.3%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
79.4%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
81.8%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the CIN 16Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
84.3%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the CIN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:3786% → 97%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
85.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
89.2%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the CIN 23Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-5
90.0%
(06:15) PENALTY CIN False Start (Cotton,Joe) 5 yards from CIN23 to CIN18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+82
96.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 82 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 3:555% → 15%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 12 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.8%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Chase SowellSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 5 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
95.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Brett EskildsenSimilar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+31
96.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 31 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
95.2%
Rocco Becht sacked by Jalen Hunt for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+3
95.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Gabe BurkleSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+20
96.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Chase Sowell for 12 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST down Cincinnati Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Trevon Gola-Callard) to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
95.2%
Rocco Becht sacked by Jake Golday for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 11Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
95.5%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
95.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 8 yds to the CIN 3Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.1%
Chase Sowell 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Rocco Becht Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -18 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
98.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 48Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-4
98.1%
B. Sorsby takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+2
98.5%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 13
OWN 46
-5
97.9%
PENALTY CIN Delay Of Game 5 yards from CIN46 to CIN41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0610% → 9%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.3%
Rocco Becht pass incomplete to Benjamin BrahmerSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
91.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 14 yds to the ISU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:56
Timeout Cincinnati, clock 01:56
+12.9
TD · Q2 0:00
Rocco Becht 4 Yd Run (Major Cantrell Pass to Benjamin Brahmer for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.6
TD · Q2 13:40
Evan Pryor run for 18 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com