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KSU

Kansas State 34 at Baylor 35

BAY
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:23 · Simon McClannan punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KSU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior+12.0Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:35: Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK) — KSU win probability +20.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:50: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 11 yds for a TD (S. Robertson Run For Two-point Conversion) — BAY win probability +29.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:28: Avery Johnson pass intercepted Jacob Redding return for 66 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK) — BAY win probability +36.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:48: Luis Rodriguez 22 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +34.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:31: Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +53.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 4:18BAY 4th & 7 at KSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−2.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:23KSU 4th & 15 at KSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:27KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 23, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:10KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 27, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:23KSU 4th & 7 at BAY 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:16BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:36KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.2%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:01BAY 4th & 7 at KSU 15, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:57KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:48KSU 4th & 4 at BAY 4, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−5.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−30.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:31BAY 4th & 9 at KSU 36, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−13.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−24.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:02KSU 4th & 4 at BAY 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−15.2
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−21.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:33KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:57BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:35KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:15KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:50BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:28BAY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1934% → 37%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
65.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
65.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
65.4%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+13
65.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 13 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
65.1%
Joe Jackson run for 11 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
64.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 3 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
64.8%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
64.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 6 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
62.7%
Avery Johnson run for 31 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
15 plays · 76 yds · 5:0463% → 63%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
63.1%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+14
63.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
62.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
63.1%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
62.8%
Bryson Washington run for 18 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
62.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 10 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
63.1%
Caden Knighten run for 2 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+12
62.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 12 yds to the KSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
62.3%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the KSU 14Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
62.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 4 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-3
61.5%
Caden Knighten run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 13Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
63.1%
Connor Hawkins 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1738% → 37%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
62.1%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 13 Blake Barnett fumbled, recovered by KSU Blake BarnettSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-3
62.0%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 10Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 15
OWN 10
0
62.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
62.6%
Simon McClannan punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:1663% → 63%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
63.0%
Michael Turner run for 6 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+16
62.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 16 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
63.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Turner for 5 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
62.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Daniel Cobbs return for no gain to the KSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3339% → 39%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
61.3%
Joe Jackson run for 9 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+5
61.1%
Joe Jackson run for 5 yds to the KSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
60.8%
Blake Barnett run for 1 yd to the KSU 17Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+3
60.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Anciaux for 3 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+3
61.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 3 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
60.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:1762% → 62%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
62.0%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Trigg,Michael thrown to KSTATE35 PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (Payne,VJ) 15 yards from BAYLOR43 to KSTATE42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.5%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the KSU 42Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
62.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+15
62.0%
Bryson Washington run for 15 yds to the KSU 21 Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by KSU Asa NewsomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4741% → 40%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
59.3%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
58.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+2
59.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 2 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
59.8%
Simon McClannan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2559% → 68%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
59.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 11 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
60.8%
Bryson Washington run for 14 yds to the KSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
60.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Caden Knighten for 15 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
68.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 30 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:0435% → 41%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
65.5%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 12Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
65.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+21
66.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 21 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
64.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+30
64.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 30 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
61.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
61.2%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
62.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Isaac KochSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
58.7%
Luis Rodriguez 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2663% → 75%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.9%
PENALTY BAYLOR False Start (Price,Coleton) 5 yards from BAYLOR25 to BAYLOR20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
62.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+24
62.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 24 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.0%
Michael Turner run for no gain to the BAY 44Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+27
64.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 27 yds to the KSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
65.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the KSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
74.9%
Michael Turner run for 17 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:3229% → 47%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
71.2%
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
70.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 5 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
69.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 6 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Brayden LoftinSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
69.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 13 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
67.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Isaac Koch for 6 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
66.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for 6 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
66.3%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyland Reed) to the BAY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
52.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 9 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.8%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the BAY 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:3363% → 61%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 7 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
64.2%
Michael Turner run for 4 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
63.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
63.2%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
64.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-10
65.5%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BAY 45Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
62.9%
Caden Knighten run for 3 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
61.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 6:3541% → 67%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
59.3%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 6Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+4
59.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 10Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+3
60.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
58.6%
Joe Jackson run for 9 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+11
57.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 11 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
57.3%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
56.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
57.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 5 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+4
57.0%
Blake Barnett run for 4 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
54.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 30 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
51.8%
Joe Jackson run for 9 yds to the BAY 15Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
51.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Joe JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
53.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
32.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 1:0240% → 34%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
40.1%
Caden Knighten run for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 14Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
37.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-10
36.3%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Cody Stufflebean for a loss of 10 yards to the BAY 4Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+1
34.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 41 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 1 yd to the BAY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:4870% → 86%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
30.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 13 yds to the BAY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
29.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 1 yd to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+25
28.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Anciaux for 25 yds to the BAY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:0618% → 17%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.7%
Michael Turner run for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
18.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 15 yds to the BAY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
19.0%
Michael Turner run for 4 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
18.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+17
19.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 17 yds to the KSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
19.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 11 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
19.0%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
17.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 7
OPP 15
0
17.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5789% → 92%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
11.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+12
10.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 12 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
9.5%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
8.7%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
8.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+11
8.1%
Simon McClannan punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 18 , Josh Cameron returns for 11 yds to the BAY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:5211% → 40%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+42
11.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 42 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
10.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 29 yds to the KSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 11 yds for a TD (S. Robertson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20INT TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:0773% → 46%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
26.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
26.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+9
27.0%
Avery Johnson run for 9 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
21.6%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 29Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
21.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+17
22.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 17 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
17.3%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
17.4%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the KSU 47Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+11
17.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 11 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-66
53.7%
Avery Johnson pass intercepted Jacob Redding return for 66 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:2640% → 83%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+62
60.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 48 yds to the BAY 28 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Caldra Williford) to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
51.0%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the BAY 10Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+8
50.7%
Joe Jackson run for 8 yds to the BAY 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
51.7%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 4Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.9%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Will SwansonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
17.3%
Luis Rodriguez 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:0633% → 74%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
32.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 7 yds to the BAY 43Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
35.6%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
35.8%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Wilson,Kole thrown to KSTATE25 PENALTY KSTATE Pass Interference (Moss,Qua) 15 yards from BAYLOR48 to KSTATE37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
34.4%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer rush right for 9 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (Moss,Qua) PENALTY BAYLOR Holding (Price,Coleton) 10 yards from KSTATE37 to KSTATE47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
29.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+11
26.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
24.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+53
73.8%
Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:2433% → 26%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jayce BrownSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
68.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 16 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
66.6%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson,Avery pass incomplete short middle to Koch,Isaac thrown to BAYLOR48 PENALTY BAYLOR Pass Interference (Simpkins,Kendrick) 15 yards from KSTATE41 to BAYLOR44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
67.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Isaac Koch for 6 yds to the BAY 38Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
67.0%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+56
73.7%
Luis Rodriguez 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Cooper Lanz (00:05) Rodriguez,Luis field goal attempt from 56 yards NO GOOD blocked by Lanz,Cooper (H: McClannan,Simon, LS: Johnson,Andrew), clock 00:02 recovered by BAYLOR Williford,Caldra at BAYLOR43, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
88.6%
S. Robertson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:31
Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOOD
+53.8
TD · Q4 4:28
Avery Johnson pass intercepted Jacob Redding return for 66 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
+36.4
FG · Q4 1:48
Luis Rodriguez 22 yd FG GOOD
-34.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com