ARDLINETry the model
UTAH

Utah 48 at West Virginia 14

WVU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Milan Puskar Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · WVU
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WVU · Drive 1PUNT · 8 plays · 24 yds
Q1 15:00
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
23.0%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for no gain to the WVU 25
24.2%
+1.2
Q1 14:20
Jaylen Henderson run for no gain to the WVU 28 Jaylen Henderson fumbled, recovered by WVU Cam Vaughn
24.4%
+0.2
Q1 14:03
Jaylen Henderson run for 14 yds to the WVU 42 for a 1ST down
24.4%
0.0
Q1 13:41
Rodney Gallagher III run for 2 yds to the WVU 44
25.1%
+0.7
Q1 13:10
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the WVU 46
25.2%
+0.2
Q1 12:25
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the WVU 49
25.0%
-0.2
Q1 11:56
Oliver Straw punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTAH 27
24.8%
-0.2
UTAH · Drive 2TD · 15 plays · 73 yds
Q1 11:56
Timeout West Virginia, clock 11:56
21.8%
-3.0
Q1 11:31
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the UTAH 25 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by UTAH Wayshawn Parker
21.8%
0.0
Q1 11:18
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 20 yds to the UTAH 45 for a 1ST down
21.8%
0.0
Q1 11:00
Wayshawn Parker run for 4 yds to the UTAH 49
20.6%
-1.2
Q1 10:43
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Jackson Bennee
20.4%
-0.2
Q1 10:28
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 11 yds to the WVU 40 for a 1ST down
20.4%
0.0
Q1 10:05
Devon Dampier pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for 5 yds to the WVU 35
19.9%
-0.5
Q1 9:33
NaQuari Rogers run for 10 yds to the WVU 25 for a 1ST down
19.9%
0.0
Q1 8:57
Devon Dampier run for 1 yd to the WVU 24
19.7%
-0.2
Q1 8:31
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 14 yds to the WVU 10 for a 1ST down
19.7%
0.0
Q1 8:00
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather
20.1%
+0.4
Q1 7:48
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the WVU 7
20.1%
0.0
Q1 7:16
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 7 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
11.3%
-8.8
Q1 7:16
West Virginia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined
11.3%
0.0
Q1 7:16
PENALTY WVU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Perry,Fred) 15 yards from UTAH35 to UTAH50. NO PLAY.
22.0%
+10.7
WVU · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 6 yds
Q1 7:16
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
11.3%
-10.7
Q1 7:07
Jaylen Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVU 21
14.6%
+3.3
Q1 6:38
Rodney Gallagher III run for 10 yds to the WVU 31
14.6%
0.0
Q1 6:17
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Jeff Weimer
14.6%
0.0
Q1 6:07
Oliver Straw punt for 36 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for 2 yds to the UTAH 35
14.6%
0.0
UTAH · Drive 4TD · 11 plays · 65 yds
Q1 6:01
NaQuari Rogers run for 19 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST down
12.0%
-2.6
Q1 5:40
Devon Dampier pass complete to Jackson Bennee for 3 yds to the WVU 43
11.4%
-0.6
Q1 5:15
NaQuari Rogers run for 2 yds to the WVU 41
11.5%
+0.1
Q1 4:37
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST down
11.5%
0.0
Q1 4:11
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Jackson Bennee
11.5%
0.0
Q1 4:00
Jackson Bennee run for 14 yds to the WVU 20 for a 1ST down
11.5%
0.0
Q1 3:38
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds to the WVU 17
11.5%
0.0
Q1 3:05
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds to the WVU 14
11.5%
0.0
Q1 2:40
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds to the WVU 10 for a 1ST down
11.5%
0.0
Q1 2:11
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the WVU 7
11.5%
0.0
Q1 1:33
Devon Dampier run for 7 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
6.3%
-5.2
WVU · Drive 5DOWNS · 9 plays · 33 yds
Q1 1:33
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.7%
+0.4
Q1 1:27
(01:32) Shotgun Henderson,Jaylen pass incomplete deep right to Vaughn,Cam thrown to UTAH45 PENALTY UTAH Pass Interference (Cotton,Blake) 15 yards from WVU25 to WVU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
7.8%
+1.1
Q1 1:13
Diore Hubbard run for 3 yds to the WVU 43
7.9%
+0.2
Q1 0:52
Jaylen Henderson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 34
8.0%
0.0
Q1 0:23
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 18 yds to the UTAH 48 for a 1ST down
7.9%
-0.1
Q1 0:08
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Justin Smith-Brown
8.2%
+0.4
Q1 0:00
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jarod Bowie for 4 yds to the UTAH 44
8.6%
+0.4
Q2 14:51
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the UTAH 42
8.8%
+0.2
Q2 14:15
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Jeff Weimer
9.0%
+0.2
UTAH · Drive 6TD · 6 plays · 58 yds
Q2 14:03
Wayshawn Parker run for 12 yds to the WVU 46 for a 1ST down
6.0%
-3.0
Q2 13:40
Devon Dampier run for 6 yds to the WVU 40
6.0%
0.0
Q2 13:07
NaQuari Rogers run for no gain to the WVU 40
5.9%
-0.1
Q2 12:35
NaQuari Rogers run for 9 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST down
5.9%
0.0
Q2 12:01
NaQuari Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 32
5.9%
0.0
Q2 11:32
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 32 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
1.5%
-4.4
WVU · Drive 7DOWNS · 8 plays · 18 yds
Q2 11:32
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
1.6%
+0.1
Q2 11:27
Jaylen Henderson pass incomplete to Rodney Gallagher III
3.3%
+1.7
Q2 11:18
Clay Ash run for 9 yds to the WVU 34
3.3%
0.0
Q2 10:59
Clay Ash run for 1 yd to the WVU 35 for a 1ST down
3.4%
+0.1
Q2 10:23
Jaylen Henderson run for 5 yds to the WVU 40
3.2%
-0.1
Q2 9:56
Jaylen Henderson run for 4 yds to the WVU 44
3.4%
+0.1
Q2 9:11
Jaylen Henderson run for no gain to the WVU 44
3.4%
0.0
Q2 8:46
Tyler Jacklich run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 43
3.0%
-0.3
UTAH · Drive 8INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 8:40
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Nick Taylor return for no gain to the WVU 20
1.3%
-1.7
Q2 8:40
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Nick Taylor return for no gain to the WVU 20
1.3%
0.0
WVU · Drive 9PUNT · 10 plays · 19 yds
Q2 8:30
Clay Ash run for 8 yds to the WVU 28
3.0%
+1.7
Q2 8:07
Clay Ash run for no gain to the WVU 28
3.0%
0.0
Q2 7:42
Jaylen Henderson run for 1 yd to the WVU 29
3.0%
0.0
Q2 7:22
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST down
3.0%
0.0
Q2 6:52
PENALTY WVU False Start (Barnes,Grayson) 5 yards from WVU31 to WVU26. NO PLAY.
3.0%
0.0
Q2 6:26
Clay Ash run for 4 yds to the WVU 30
2.9%
0.0
Q2 6:07
Clay Ash run for 1 yd to the WVU 31
2.9%
0.0
Q2 5:43
Jaylen Henderson run for 8 yds to the WVU 39
2.9%
0.0
Q2 4:56
Oliver Straw punt for 50 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for 4 yds to the UTAH 15
3.0%
+0.1
Q2 4:56
Oliver Straw punt for 50 yds , Mana Carvalho returns for 4 yds to the UTAH 6
3.0%
0.0
UTAH · Drive 10TD · 19 plays · 94 yds
Q2 4:56
(04:55) PENALTY UTAH False Start 3 yards from UTAH06 to UTAH03. NO PLAY.
1.3%
-1.7
Q2 4:47
Devon Dampier run for no gain to the UTAH 3
1.3%
0.0
Q2 4:06
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 11 yds to the UTAH 14
1.3%
0.0
Q2 3:39
Devon Dampier run for 3 yds to the UTAH 17 for a 1ST down
1.3%
0.0
Q2 3:12
NaQuari Rogers run for 7 yds to the UTAH 24
1.3%
0.0
Q2 2:51
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds to the UTAH 28 for a 1ST down
1.1%
-0.2
Q2 2:15
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Tobias Merriweather
1.0%
-0.1
Q2 1:59
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the UTAH 35
1.0%
0.0
Q2 1:59
Timeout West Virginia, clock 01:59
1.0%
0.0
Q2 1:47
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 14 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q2 1:42
West Virginia Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WVU 34 for a 1ST down
0.9%
0.0
Q2 1:24
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 21 yds to the WVU 13 for a 1ST down
0.9%
0.0
Q2 1:12
Wayshawn Parker run for 3 yds to the WVU 10
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Wayshawn Parker run for no gain to the WVU 10
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:43
Timeout Utah, clock 00:43
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:31
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the WVU 1 for a 1ST down
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:17
NaQuari Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 2
0.9%
-0.1
Q2 0:17
Timeout West Virginia, clock 00:17
0.9%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 2 yds for a TD
0.5%
-0.4
WVU · Drive 11END OF HALF · 2 plays · 5 yds
Q2 0:13
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
0.5%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Diore Hubbard run for 5 yds to the WVU 30
1.1%
+0.7
UTAH · Drive 12TD · 12 plays · 63 yds
Q3 14:57
Ethan Head kickoff for 38 yds , Dallen Bentley return for 10 yds to the UTAH 37
1.0%
-0.1
Q3 14:46
Wayshawn Parker run for 4 yds to the UTAH 41
0.5%
-0.6
Q3 14:12
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 21 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q3 13:59
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds to the WVU 36 Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caleb Lomu) to the WVU 46
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the WVU 42
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 17 yds to the WVU 25 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Wayshawn Parker run for 4 yds to the WVU 21
0.5%
0.0
Q3 12:50
Timeout West Virginia, clock 12:50
0.4%
0.0
Q3 12:27
Byrd Ficklin run for a loss of 5 yards to the WVU 26
0.4%
0.0
Q3 11:43
Devon Dampier pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 10 yds to the WVU 16
0.4%
0.0
Q3 11:16
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 5 yds to the WVU 11 for a 1ST down
0.4%
0.0
Q3 10:42
Devon Dampier pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 11 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
0.3%
-0.1
WVU · Drive 13TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q3 10:42
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds
0.3%
0.0
Q3 10:29
Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 5 yds to the WVU 30
1.0%
+0.7
Q3 10:03
Khalil Wilkins run for 17 yds to the WVU 47 for a 1ST down
1.1%
0.0
Q3 9:42
Diore Hubbard run for 2 yds to the WVU 49
1.0%
0.0
Q3 9:25
Rodney Gallagher III run for 2 yds to the UTAH 49
1.0%
0.0
Q3 8:57
Khalil Wilkins run for 4 yds to the UTAH 45
1.0%
0.0
Q3 8:32
PENALTY WVU False Start (Haslam,Donovan) 5 yards from UTAH45 to UTAH50. NO PLAY.
1.0%
0.0
Q3 8:09
Khalil Wilkins run for 10 yds to the UTAH 40 for a 1ST down
1.0%
0.0
Q3 7:51
Khalil Wilkins run for 1 yd to the UTAH 39
1.1%
0.0
Q3 7:28
Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 39 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
1.1%
0.0
UTAH · Drive 14FG · 7 plays · 60 yds
Q3 7:28
Ethan Head kickoff for 50 yds
1.1%
0.0
Q3 7:16
Wayshawn Parker run for 40 yds to the WVU 35 for a 1ST down
0.4%
-0.7
Q3 6:53
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Dampier,Devon pass incomplete deep right to Buchanan,JJ thrown to WVU00 PENALTY WVU Pass Interference (Tarnue,Kekoura) 15 yards from WVU35 to WVU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.4%
0.0
Q3 6:45
Wayshawn Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 21
0.4%
0.0
Q3 6:11
Devon Dampier run for 6 yds to the WVU 15
0.4%
0.0
Q3 5:48
Wayshawn Parker run for no gain to the WVU 15
0.4%
0.0
Q3 5:18
Dillon Curtis 33 yd FG GOOD
0.4%
0.0
WVU · Drive 15DOWNS · 14 plays · 51 yds
Q3 5:18
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds
0.4%
0.0
Q3 5:08
Khalil Wilkins run for 5 yds to the WVU 30
1.0%
+0.6
Q3 4:49
Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Jeff Weimer
1.0%
0.0
Q3 4:40
Diore Hubbard run for 29 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST down
0.9%
-0.1
Q3 4:14
Diore Hubbard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 39
0.8%
-0.1
Q3 3:49
Khalil Wilkins run for 4 yds to the UTAH 35
0.8%
0.0
Q3 3:23
Diore Hubbard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 33
0.8%
0.0
Q3 3:23
Khalil Wilkins run for 3 yds to the UTAH 30 for a 1ST down
0.9%
0.0
Q3 2:31
Clay Ash run for 2 yds to the UTAH 28
0.8%
0.0
Q3 2:04
Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Jeff Weimer
0.8%
0.0
Q3 1:58
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Wilkins,Khalil pass complete deep left to Gallagher III,Rodney caught at UTAH00, for 28 yards to the UTAH00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:58 PENALTY WVU Pass Interference (Gallagher III,Rodney) 15 yards from UTAH28 to UTAH43. NO PLAY.
0.8%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 19 yds to the UTAH 24
0.7%
-0.1
Q3 1:14
Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan Ward
0.7%
0.0
Q3 1:14
Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan Ward
0.7%
0.0
UTAH · Drive 16FG · 10 plays · 61 yds
Q3 0:53
Devon Dampier pass complete to Daniel Bray for 2 yds to the UTAH 26
0.3%
-0.4
Q3 0:00
Devon Dampier pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 8 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:49
Daniel Bray run for 17 yds to the WVU 49 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:12
Byrd Ficklin run for 15 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 14:12
Timeout West Virginia, clock 14:12
0.3%
0.0
Q4 13:25
Daniel Bray run for 15 yds to the WVU 19 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 12:41
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the WVU 17
0.3%
0.0
Q4 12:00
Byrd Ficklin run for 2 yds to the WVU 15
0.3%
0.0
Q4 11:18
Daniel Bray run for no gain to the WVU 15
0.3%
0.0
Q4 10:46
Dillon Curtis 33 yd FG GOOD
0.3%
0.0
WVU · Drive 17TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q4 10:46
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 65 yds
0.3%
0.0
Q4 10:30
Jarod Bowie run for 68 yds to the UTAH 7 for a 1ST down
0.5%
+0.3
Q4 9:58
Khalil Wilkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTAH 11
0.6%
0.0
Q4 9:18
Khalil Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 12
0.6%
0.0
Q4 8:44
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Wilkins,Khalil pass incomplete short right to Vaughn,Cam thrown to UTAH00 PENALTY UTAH Pass Interference (Hart,JC) UTAH Face Mask declined 10 yards from UTAH12 to UTAH02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
0.6%
0.0
Q4 8:44
Khalil Wilkins pass incomplete to Cam Vaughn
0.6%
0.0
Q4 8:26
Diore Hubbard run for 1 yd to the UTAH 1
0.6%
0.0
Q4 7:59
Diore Hubbard run for 1 yd for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
0.6%
0.0
UTAH · Drive 18TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q4 7:59
RJ Kocan kickoff for 55 yds
0.6%
0.0
Q4 7:47
Bryce Duke run for 12 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST down
0.3%
-0.2
Q4 6:55
Byrd Ficklin pass complete to Larry Simmons for 41 yds to the WVU 22 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 6:18
Bryce Duke run for 9 yds to the WVU 13
0.3%
0.0
Q4 5:34
Bryce Duke run for no gain to the WVU 13
0.3%
0.0
Q4 4:39
Byrd Ficklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVU 16
0.3%
0.0
Q4 4:02
Byrd Ficklin pass complete to Larry Simmons for 6 yds to the WVU 10 for a 1ST down
0.3%
0.0
Q4 3:24
Byrd Ficklin run for 1 yd to the WVU 9
0.3%
0.0
Q4 2:43
Byrd Ficklin pass complete to Bryce Duke for 4 yds to the WVU 5
0.3%
0.0
Q4 2:02
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the WVU 2
0.3%
0.0
Q4 1:56
Byrd Ficklin pass complete to Bryce Duke for 2 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
0.3%
-0.1
WVU · Drive 19END OF GAME · 7 plays · 40 yds
Q4 1:56
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 63 yds
0.3%
0.0
Q4 1:45
Max Brown run for 5 yds to the WVU 30
0.5%
+0.2
Q4 1:25
Max Brown run for 14 yds to the WVU 44 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Q4 1:04
Diore Hubbard run for 4 yds to the WVU 48
0.5%
0.0
Q4 0:38
Scotty Fox Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
0.5%
0.0
Q4 0:12
Scotty Fox Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTAH 47
0.5%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Diore Hubbard run for 12 yds to the UTAH 35 for a 1ST down
0.5%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:16
PENALTY WVU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Perry,Fred) 15 yards from UTAH35 to UTAH50. NO PLAY.
+10.7
KEY PLAY · Q1 7:16
Dillon Curtis kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
-10.7
TD · Q1 7:16
Devon Dampier pass complete to JJ Buchanan for 7 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com