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UCF

UCF 20 at Kansas State 34

KSU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:15 · Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 22 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by KSU Justice Clemons
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Offense timeouts−13.9Defense timeouts−12.3Home team on offense+19.2Pregame prior+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.3Garbage-time factor+4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:54: DJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick) — UCF win probability +7.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  2. TD · Q2 0:45: Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick) — KSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q3 9:58: Garrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick) — KSU win probability +26.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:01: Noe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal — UCF win probability +14.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:20: Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick) — KSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:15UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09KSU 4th & 6 at UCF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:26UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03KSU 4th & 2 at UCF 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:46UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22KSU 4th & 2 at UCF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:15UCF 4th & 1 at KSU 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−2.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:03KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 29, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:01UCF 4th & 20 at KSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:41UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:43KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:34UCF 4th & 14 at KSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:00KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:21UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:41KSU 4th & 3 at UCF 29, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 3:52KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:54UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:45KSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:58KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0271% → 69%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
71.3%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
70.7%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Adonis MoiseSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+25
70.5%
Avery Johnson run for 25 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
69.8%
Dylan Edwards run for 16 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
69.0%
Linkon Cure pass intercepted Demari Henderson return for no gain to the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3631% → 35%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
68.6%
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+5
67.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
66.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
66.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles MontgomerySimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
65.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:5465% → 59%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
64.6%
Blake Barnett run for 11 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
64.0%
Blake Barnett run for 5 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
63.4%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
63.1%
Blake Barnett run for 6 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
62.7%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 41 UCF Penalty, off-side (Keli Lawson) to the KSU 46Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+1
62.4%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 47Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+15
61.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 15 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
61.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
60.5%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+2
60.2%
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-7
59.2%
Avery Johnson sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3143% → 43%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
56.8%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Austin RomaineSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
57.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
56.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 5:1656% → 53%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
55.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 10 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
55.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
54.6%
Avery Johnson run for 6 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+11
54.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
53.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 13 yds Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by KSU Jaron Tibbs for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
53.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
54.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
54.0%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
52.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
53.3%
Luis Rodriguez 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:1446% → 48%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
52.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
52.8%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
50.9%
Tayven Jackson run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
50.1%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Kylan FoxSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
50.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by VJ PayneSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+6
51.8%
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 6 yds to the KSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1848% → 46%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
48.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
47.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 3 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
47.1%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Isaac Koch, broken up by Jayden BellamySimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0850% → 49%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
49.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 11 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
49.3%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+3
51.0%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:3352% → 55%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
52.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-1
51.5%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+7
50.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 7 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+14
48.6%
Avery Johnson run for 14 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
49.5%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain Kansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Leingang) to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+13
49.4%
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.1%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:5044% → 52%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
56.1%
Marcus Burke run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+82
48.4%
DJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:0245% → 46%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
45.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 15 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.8%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 42Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
33.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 20 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
35.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+13
34.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Sterling Lockett for 13 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
36.4%
Avery Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
36.2%
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+12
35.0%
Dylan Edwards run for 12 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.3%
Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:2256% → 58%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
42.3%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 35 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by UCF Jacurri Brown Brown,Jacurri rush left for loss of 4 yards to the UCF28, fumble by Brown,Jacurri recovered by UCF Brown,Jacurri, Brown,Jacurri rush , UCF wins the toss and chooses receive.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0841% → 37%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
59.1%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
61.2%
Jacurri Brown run for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
63.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4456% → 82%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.7%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
55.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 10 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
56.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 14 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
56.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 35 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.8%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.4%
Garrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3420% → 20%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
80.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+45
79.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 45 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
78.8%
Tayven Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
79.4%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ BlackSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+11
80.8%
Tayven Jackson run for 11 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-1
80.1%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 22 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by KSU Justice ClemonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0484% → 82%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
83.5%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 18Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
83.0%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron TibbsSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+11
82.6%
Avery Johnson run for 11 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
82.1%
Simon McClannan punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:5917% → 26%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+37
83.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 37 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
82.1%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 9 yds to the KSU 37Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
77.4%
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the KSU 37Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
83.3%
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
85.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the KSU 29Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
83.2%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
84.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.3%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black, broken up by Gunner MaldonadoSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
86.5%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Zashon Rich for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 30Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-5
88.6%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Tobi Osunsanmi for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 35Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 20
OPP 35
+53
74.0%
Noe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
62.4%
Dylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2834% → 29%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.6%
Jaden Nixon run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
63.2%
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
64.8%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden CharlesSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
66.4%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Jaden Nixon for a 1ST down Kansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
62.6%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Kylan FoxSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+54
71.0%
Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3188% → 89%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
88.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 26 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (RJ Jackson Jr.) to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
89.1%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 36Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+5
88.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
90.4%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
89.3%
Simon McClannan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:0123% → 17%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+44
77.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 44 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
76.0%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the KSU 37 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Bredell Richardson) to the KSU 47Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-5
76.3%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Tayven Jackson) to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 25
OWN 48
+4
76.7%
Stacy Gage run for 4 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+30
77.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 30 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
76.5%
Stacy Gage run for 5 yds to the KSU 13Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
81.6%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the KSU 12Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-5
81.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jabari Brooks) to the KSU 17Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
85.2%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Zashon RichSimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OPP 17
-5
86.4%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Tayven Jackson) to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+40
83.2%
Noe Ruelas 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3368% → 85%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.2%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
79.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
79.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Linkon Cure for 10 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.8%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett OakleySimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
82.7%
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
85.6%
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Sterling LockettSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Simon McClannan punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3123% → 16%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
76.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+6
77.5%
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
78.5%
Tayven Jackson sacked by Travis Bates for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+3
80.4%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+6
81.0%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
83.9%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Gunner MaldonadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3392% → 95%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.3%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
92.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+4
95.3%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+48
95.4%
Luis Rodriguez 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26Uncategorized
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4896% → 92%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
95.9%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
90.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
91.1%
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
91.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
91.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:58
Garrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
+26.7
FG · Q3 2:01
Noe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal
-14.6
TD · Q2 0:45
Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com