UCF
UCF 20 at Kansas State 34
KSU2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey play
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KSU · Drive 1INT · 6 plays · 40 yds
Q1 15:00
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 64 yds , Bryce Noernberg return for 26 yds to the KSU 27
37.8%
0.0
Q1 14:55
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26
40.5%
+2.7
Q1 14:26
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Adonis Moise
40.8%
+0.3
Q1 14:20
Avery Johnson run for 25 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down
40.8%
0.0
Q1 13:37
Dylan Edwards run for 16 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST down
42.6%
+1.8
Q1 12:53
Linkon Cure pass intercepted Demari Henderson return for no gain to the UCF 8
43.0%
+0.4
UCF · Drive 2PUNT · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q1 12:51
Duane Thomas Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 16
37.2%
-5.8
Q1 12:17
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST down
37.2%
0.0
Q1 11:35
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 3 yds to the UCF 24
37.2%
0.0
Q1 11:05
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 28
37.2%
0.0
Q1 10:16
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Myles Montgomery
37.2%
0.0
Q1 10:15
Anthony Venneri punt for 55 yds
37.2%
0.0
KSU · Drive 3DOWNS · 11 plays · 42 yds
Q1 10:03
Blake Barnett run for 11 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST down
40.8%
+3.6
Q1 9:32
Blake Barnett run for 5 yds to the KSU 33
40.8%
0.0
Q1 9:04
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the KSU 35
41.1%
+0.3
Q1 8:31
Blake Barnett run for 6 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST down
40.6%
-0.4
Q1 7:53
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 41 UCF Penalty, off-side (Keli Lawson) to the KSU 46
41.6%
+1.0
Q1 7:29
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 47
41.6%
0.0
Q1 6:58
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 15 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down
41.6%
0.0
Q1 6:34
Avery Johnson pass complete to Adonis Moise for 2 yds to the UCF 36
42.9%
+1.3
Q1 5:56
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron Tibbs
41.6%
-1.3
Q1 5:54
Joe Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 34
41.4%
-0.2
Q1 5:09
Avery Johnson sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 41
41.0%
-0.4
UCF · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q1 4:57
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the UCF 41
34.8%
-6.2
Q1 4:16
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Austin Romaine
34.8%
0.0
Q1 4:13
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for no gain to the UCF 41
34.8%
0.0
Q1 3:26
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 yds
35.0%
+0.2
KSU · Drive 5FG · 10 plays · 62 yds
Q1 3:19
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 10 yds to the KSU 28 for a 1ST down
39.3%
+4.3
Q1 2:48
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 31
39.3%
0.0
Q1 2:13
Avery Johnson run for 6 yds to the KSU 37
39.2%
-0.2
Q1 1:34
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST down
39.2%
0.0
Q1 0:53
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 13 yds Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by KSU Jaron Tibbs for a 1ST down
39.8%
+0.6
Q1 0:09
Dylan Edwards run for 11 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down
41.1%
+1.3
Q2 14:59
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 2 yds to the UCF 26
41.0%
-0.1
Q2 14:20
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 25
43.1%
+2.1
Q2 13:43
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 5 yds to the UCF 20
42.9%
-0.2
Q2 13:03
Luis Rodriguez 38 yd FG GOOD
47.7%
+4.9
UCF · Drive 6PUNT · 8 plays · 18 yds
Q2 13:03
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
47.2%
-0.5
Q2 13:00
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 31
45.3%
-1.8
Q2 12:28
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30
45.3%
0.0
Q2 11:47
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down
45.3%
-0.1
Q2 11:27
Tayven Jackson run for 3 yds to the UCF 43
44.4%
-0.9
Q2 10:56
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Kylan Fox
44.2%
-0.1
Q2 10:52
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by VJ Payne
44.2%
0.0
Q2 10:46
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 yds , Sterling Lockett returns for 6 yds to the KSU 15
44.6%
+0.3
KSU · Drive 7PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q2 10:33
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the KSU 20
47.3%
+2.7
Q2 10:03
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 3 yds to the KSU 23
47.3%
0.0
Q2 9:20
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Isaac Koch, broken up by Jayden Bellamy
47.3%
0.0
Q2 9:15
Simon McClannan punt for 65 yds
46.6%
-0.7
UCF · Drive 8INT · 4 plays · 13 yds
Q2 9:04
Myles Montgomery run for 11 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down
45.4%
-1.2
Q2 8:39
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 22
45.4%
0.0
Q2 7:56
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 25
46.3%
+0.8
Q2 7:33
Gunner Maldonado return for no gain to the UCF 26
46.3%
0.0
KSU · Drive 9TD · 7 plays · 26 yds
Q2 7:25
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UCF 24
49.9%
+3.6
Q2 6:50
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25
49.9%
0.0
Q2 6:09
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 7 yds to the UCF 18
49.6%
-0.3
Q2 5:22
Avery Johnson run for 14 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down
49.0%
-0.7
Q2 4:42
Dylan Edwards run for no gain Kansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Andrew Leingang) to the UCF 14
50.0%
+1.0
Q2 4:36
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the UCF 1
50.0%
0.0
Q2 3:52
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
70.9%
+20.9
UCF · Drive 10TD · 3 plays · 77 yds
Q2 3:52
Simon McClannan kickoff for 62 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 20 yds to the UCF 23
70.2%
-0.7
Q2 3:44
Marcus Burke run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 18
64.3%
-5.9
Q2 2:54
DJ Black 82 Yd pass from Jacurri Brown (Noe Ruelas Kick)
46.4%
-17.9
KSU · Drive 11TD · 10 plays · 73 yds
Q2 2:54
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 60 yds , Bryce Noernberg return for 22 yds to the KSU 27
46.4%
0.0
Q2 2:47
Dylan Edwards run for 15 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST down
48.7%
+2.3
Q2 2:12
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 42
49.3%
+0.6
Q2 1:59
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 20 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down
49.2%
-0.1
Q2 1:46
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the UCF 36
50.1%
+0.9
Q2 1:16
Avery Johnson pass complete to Sterling Lockett for 13 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down
50.1%
0.0
Q2 1:10
Avery Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 23
50.1%
0.0
Q2 1:04
Avery Johnson run for 8 yds to the UCF 15
50.1%
0.0
Q2 0:57
Dylan Edwards run for 12 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST down
49.9%
-0.3
Q2 0:45
Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
73.2%
+23.3
UCF · Drive 12FUMBLE · 3 plays · 7 yds
Q2 0:45
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.9%
-0.3
Q2 0:44
Jacurri Brown run for 7 yds to the UCF 32
64.5%
-8.5
Q2 0:22
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 35 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by UCF Jacurri Brown Brown,Jacurri rush left for loss of 4 yards to the UCF28, fumble by Brown,Jacurri recovered by UCF Brown,Jacurri, Brown,Jacurri rush , UCF wins the toss and chooses receive.
63.8%
-0.7
UCF · Drive 13PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q3 15:00
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
73.3%
+9.5
Q3 14:59
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 26
64.3%
-9.0
Q3 14:21
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 28
64.3%
0.0
Q3 13:36
Jacurri Brown run for no gain to the UCF 28
63.8%
-0.4
Q3 12:51
Anthony Venneri punt for 37 yds
63.7%
-0.1
KSU · Drive 14TD · 6 plays · 65 yds
Q3 12:42
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 39
75.4%
+11.7
Q3 12:09
Dylan Edwards run for 10 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST down
75.5%
+0.1
Q3 11:35
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 14 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down
75.5%
0.0
Q3 11:15
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 35 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST down
75.9%
+0.4
Q3 10:41
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 1
75.9%
0.0
Q3 9:58
Garrett Oakley 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
88.2%
+12.3
UCF · Drive 15FUMBLE · 7 plays · 57 yds
Q3 9:58
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 22 yds to the UCF 22
88.1%
-0.1
Q3 9:49
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UCF 25
78.9%
-9.2
Q3 9:13
Myles Montgomery run for 45 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST down
78.9%
0.0
Q3 8:35
Tayven Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 32
77.7%
-1.2
Q3 8:02
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black
77.7%
0.0
Q3 7:53
Tayven Jackson run for 11 yds to the KSU 21
77.7%
0.0
Q3 7:15
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 22 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by KSU Justice Clemons
79.7%
+2.0
KSU · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q3 7:07
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 18
88.1%
+8.4
Q3 6:34
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Jaron Tibbs
87.3%
-0.8
Q3 6:30
Avery Johnson run for 11 yds to the KSU 29
87.3%
0.0
Q3 6:03
Simon McClannan punt for 54 yds
87.3%
0.0
UCF · Drive 17FG · 11 plays · 48 yds
Q3 6:00
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 37 yds to the KSU 46 for a 1ST down
78.9%
-8.4
Q3 5:36
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaden Nixon for 9 yds to the KSU 37
78.9%
0.0
Q3 5:14
Jaden Nixon run for no gain to the KSU 37
78.8%
-0.1
Q3 4:52
Tayven Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST down
78.9%
+0.1
Q3 4:34
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the KSU 29
77.7%
-1.2
Q3 4:20
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr.
77.6%
-0.1
Q3 4:17
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST down
78.5%
+0.9
Q3 3:37
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black, broken up by Gunner Maldonado
77.6%
-0.9
Q3 3:31
Tayven Jackson sacked by Zashon Rich for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 30
77.6%
0.0
Q3 2:48
Tayven Jackson sacked by Tobi Osunsanmi for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 35
78.9%
+1.3
Q3 2:01
Noe Ruelas 53 Yd Field Goal
73.2%
-5.7
KSU · Drive 18TD · 2 plays · 75 yds
Q3 2:01
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.2%
-2.0
Q3 1:50
Dylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
91.8%
+20.6
UCF · Drive 19TD · 7 plays · 75 yds
Q3 1:50
Simon McClannan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
91.8%
0.0
Q3 1:48
Jaden Nixon run for 7 yds to the UCF 32
82.6%
-9.2
Q3 1:25
Jaden Nixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31
82.6%
0.0
Q3 0:45
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Waden Charles
83.4%
+0.8
Q3 0:41
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Jaden Nixon for a 1ST down Kansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down
83.4%
0.0
Q3 0:33
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Kylan Fox
82.6%
-0.8
Q3 0:20
Jaden Nixon 54 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)
74.0%
-8.6
KSU · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · 16 yds
Q3 0:20
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
74.0%
0.0
Q3 0:14
Dylan Edwards run for 1 yd to the KSU 26 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (RJ Jackson Jr.) to the KSU 41 for a 1ST down
86.4%
+12.4
Q4 14:59
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 36
86.5%
+0.1
Q4 14:22
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the KSU 41
86.4%
-0.1
Q4 13:48
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Oakley
86.5%
+0.1
Q4 13:43
Simon McClannan punt for 40 yds
86.5%
0.0
UCF · Drive 21FG · 11 plays · 59 yds
Q4 13:35
Myles Montgomery run for 44 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST down
74.4%
-12.1
Q4 13:10
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the KSU 37 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Bredell Richardson) to the KSU 47
74.2%
-0.2
Q4 12:35
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Tayven Jackson) to the UCF 48
74.4%
+0.2
Q4 12:09
Stacy Gage run for 4 yds to the KSU 48
74.8%
+0.4
Q4 11:34
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Marcus Burke for 30 yds to the KSU 18 for a 1ST down
74.7%
-0.1
Q4 11:01
Stacy Gage run for 5 yds to the KSU 13
74.6%
-0.2
Q4 10:21
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the KSU 12
73.9%
-0.7
Q4 9:55
UCF Penalty, false start (Jabari Brooks) to the KSU 17
74.4%
+0.5
Q4 9:41
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Zashon Rich
78.6%
+4.2
Q4 9:38
UCF Penalty, delay of game (Tayven Jackson) to the KSU 22
78.6%
0.0
Q4 9:34
Noe Ruelas 40 Yd Field Goal
74.3%
-4.3
KSU · Drive 22PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q4 9:34
Noe Ruelas kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
71.9%
-2.4
Q4 9:33
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the KSU 26
75.8%
+3.9
Q4 8:58
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jaron Tibbs for 5 yds to the KSU 31
75.7%
0.0
Q4 8:25
Avery Johnson pass complete to Linkon Cure for 10 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST down
75.7%
0.0
Q4 7:49
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Oakley
75.8%
+0.1
Q4 7:42
Dylan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 39
76.6%
+0.8
Q4 7:07
Avery Johnson pass incomplete to Sterling Lockett
76.6%
0.0
Q4 7:00
Simon McClannan punt for 45 yds
76.6%
0.0
UCF · Drive 23DOWNS · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q4 6:52
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 22
72.7%
-3.9
Q4 6:32
Jaden Nixon run for 6 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down
73.2%
+0.5
Q4 5:59
Tayven Jackson sacked by Travis Bates for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27
74.7%
+1.5
Q4 5:24
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 3 yds to the UCF 30
74.7%
0.0
Q4 5:02
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Kylan Fox for 6 yds to the UCF 36
75.2%
+0.4
Q4 4:21
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to Duane Thomas Jr., broken up by Gunner Maldonado
77.0%
+1.8
KSU · Drive 24FG · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q4 4:14
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the UCF 36
82.7%
+5.8
Q4 4:09
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33
82.7%
0.0
Q4 3:31
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the UCF 29
82.9%
+0.1
Q4 2:41
Luis Rodriguez 48 Yd Field Goal
90.4%
+7.5
UCF · Drive 25INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q4 2:41
Simon McClannan kickoff for 63 yds , Jaden Nixon return for 22 yds to the UCF 24
92.5%
+2.1
Q4 2:31
Qua Moss return for no gain to the KSU 45
82.7%
-9.8
KSU · Drive 26Uncategorized · 5 plays · 11 yds
Q4 2:26
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the KSU 49
92.5%
+9.8
Q4 1:58
Dylan Edwards run for 5 yds to the UCF 46
92.5%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Dylan Edwards run for 4 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down
92.5%
0.0
Q4 1:14
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44
92.5%
0.0
Q4 0:38
run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44
92.5%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:45
Will Anciaux 3 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
+23.3
TD · Q2 3:52
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Luis Rodriguez KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q3 1:50
Dylan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
+20.6